New York Magazine


Tina Vondran

LAST WINTER, IN THE WEEKS leading up to what would be a very long presidential-primary season, New York went to Iowa and New Hampshire to interview REPUBLICANS about their outlooks on the election. They opened up about their hopes—but especially about their fears. The biggest theme was a sense that the country was under siege, by threats both domestic and foreign, and needed the guidance of a tenacious leader.

At that time, there were 12 GOP candidates, and Ted Cruz was gaining momentum. The libertarians in New Hampshire favored Rand Paul; a lot of Evangelicals in Iowa wanted Ben Carson. Trump, who had just called for “a total and complete shutdown” of immigration by Muslims, was the most popular candidate in our sample of 100 voters, but also the most divisive.

Of course, this was months before 2005 audio surfaced of Trump talking about grabbing women’s private parts and before women began coming forward with their own stories of being assaulted or harassed by the candidate. With those revelations in mind, we were interested to know how Trump’s support had changed among women voters, particularly those who are generally loyal Republicans. So we reached out to ten of the women we’d spoken with to see how they were planning to vote. In our by-no-means-scientific survey,

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