Bloomberg Businessweek

Questioning the Strength Of the Shale Boom

MIT researchers say optimistic government forecasts rest on a faulty assumption

Turns out, America’s decade-long shale boom might be a little too good to last.

There’s no denying that fracking has turned the U.S. into a force in the global oil and gas markets, which has quite a few people—not least President Donald Trump—abuzz about the prospect of energy independence. But researchers at MIT have uncovered one potentially game-changing detail: a flaw in the Department of Energy’s official forecast, which may vastly overstate U.S. oil and gas production in the years to come.

The culprit, they say, is the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s premise that better technology has been driving nearly all the recent output gains and will continue to boost production for the foreseeable future. Instead, the research suggests, increases have been largely the result of

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