The Atlantic

What Did You Do in the Trade War, Daddy?

There is a problem with China. But what the U.S. is doing to solve it won’t work.

While Donald Trump has diverted his attention to other matters, here are some questions and answers to bear in mind, when he is back to talking about winning a trade war.

Q. Is there a “China problem” to be dealt with?

A. Yes. This was the theme of a piece I did just before the 2016 election: “China’s Great Leap Backward.” Its argument was that through the decades since the beginning of China’s post-Mao reform movement, in the late 1970s under Deng Xiaoping, two assumptions had guided U.S. policy toward China—but that China’s recent behavior was calling both of them into question.

One assumption was that, over time, China would not necessarily become more “Americanized”  or even “democratic”—neither of which anyone who’d ever lived in China could reasonably think. Instead the assumption was that China would become steadily less of an outlier to the international system, more aligned with international standards in realms ranging from financial and banking standards to environmental protection. Its people would become steadily more exposed to educational systems, pop culture, tourism, everyday liberties in the rest of the world.

As China

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