The 2018 Midterms Are All About Trump
In its final stages, the tumultuous 2018 midterm election appears to be moving in contradictory directions, with Democrats and Republicans alike finding legitimate reasons for optimism amid the daily flurry of new polls.
But these seemingly disparate signals actually represent a mirror image of the same powerful force: a tightening connection between voters’ attitudes about President Trump and their preferences in House and Senate races next month.
That dynamic is lifting Republican hopes in the red-state Senate contests central to the battle for the upper chamber. It’s also dimming Democrats’ prospects in the exurban and small-town districts mostly on the periphery of their target list in the House. But it is simultaneously solidifying the Democratic advantage in many of the white-collar suburban seats, especially those that preferred Hillary Clinton over Trump in 2016, key to their hopes of recapturing a House majority.
“We are on two different tracks, moving in two different directions,” says Tom Davis,
