Belt Up For A Choppy Ride

The downward correction in global oil prices and US dollar/interest rates from their highs offered a reprieve to emerging markets, particularly India, in the final quarter of 2018. Asset markets are, however, far from breathing easy. Regional data points to an impending growth slowdown this year, led by weaker exports and magnified by the US China trade skirmish. The Indian markets are also on tenterhooks, at a time when domestic catalysts are gaining importance.

In this column, we will address five crucial questions facing the Indian economy this year. Lower oil prices, alongside a softer but stable growth environment, has added to the disinflationary spell. Policy tightening expectations have fizzled out, but the fiscal outlook and politics still bear watching.

Gains from Lower Oil Prices

The Indian basket of crude oil prices corrected by more than 30 per cent from the peak in early October. This