Bill Burns: ‘Chaos Serves Putin’s Interest’
William J. Burns, now the head of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in Washington, D.C. is one of America’s most experienced and esteemed diplomats. During his three-decade career in the Foreign Service, he was the United States ambassador to Russia under George W. Bush and a deputy secretary of state under Barack Obama—only the second serving career diplomat ever to hold that position. He has also been the ambassador to Jordan, and lead negotiator in secret nuclear talks with Iran. In addition to English, he speaks Arabic, Russian, and French.
His new book, The Back Channel, is a memoir of diplomatic history that makes a case for the often-disdained practice of diplomacy itself. In an article in the April issue of The Atlantic, he offers a firsthand view of why America’s relations with Russia have gone bad, and whether any better outcome could have been possible. Shortly before his book’s publication, he talked with me about how Vladimir Putin assesses Donald Trump, and America’s prospects under Trump’s leadership. Burns also emphasizes how Putin’s relentless eye for weakness—in his own country’s long-term strategic position, among his potential rivals within Russia, and in the foreign leaders he negotiates with, including Trump—is a crucial factor in understanding his decisions and the likely course of his dealings with the United States.
The transcript of our conversation has been condensed, but is otherwise unedited.
James Fallows: Back when Mitt Romney was running against Barack Obama in 2012, he was widely ridiculed for saying that the No. 1 strategic challenge for the United States was Russia—rather than, say, China, or international terrorism. Was he right then? Has he become right, now?
Bill Burns: As usual, the picture is more complicated than whether this or that threat is “No 1.”
I think Putin has given ample evidence that Russia can be threatening in lots of different ways that matter to us, and to our friends and allies, and to the international order. President Obama, for whom I have very high regard, kind of dismissively observed that . Well, it’s a pretty goddamn big region, across 11 time zones. And even as a declining power Russia can exert a fair amount
