Scout's Guide to Supercross 2016

Scout’s Guide to Supercross 2016

Chris Martin

https://twitter.com/ChrisMartinSBK

cmartin@enginesofextinction.com

Smashwords Edition

Copyright © 2016 Chris Martin

Cover Photo: KTM

Also by Chris Martin

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Modern American Snipers: From The Legend to The Reaper – on the Battlefield with Special Operations Snipers (St. Martin’s Press)

Beyond Neptune Spear: The (Open) Secret History of SEAL Team Six, Post-9/11

Shaping the World from the Shadows: The (Open) Secret History of Delta Force, Post-9/11

Contents

About This Guide

The SGSX16 Top 25

1. Ryan Dungey

2. Ken Roczen

3. Eli Tomac

4. Justin Barcia

5. Trey Canard

6. James Stewart

7. Jason Anderson

8. Cooper Webb

9. Cole Seely

10. Chad Reed

11. Weston Peick

12. Marvin Musquin

13. Blake Baggett

14. Davi Millsaps

15. Broc Tickle

16. Dean Wilson

17. Andrew Short

18. Justin Bogle

19. Justin Brayton

20. Adam Cianciarulo

21. Jeremy Martin

22. Malcolm Stewart

23. Wil Hahn

24. Christophe Pourcel

25. Tyler Bowers

On the Outside Looking In

The Skills to Pay the Bills

The Start

Holding a Lead

Coming from Behind

Making Passes

Sprint Speed

Seizing Opportunities

Lap-to-Lap Consistency

Corner Speed

The Whoops

Confidence

Mental Toughness

Experience

Fitness

All-Around Ability

Man and Machine

KTM 450 SX-F

Husqvarna FC 450

Kawasaki KX450F

Yamaha YZ450F

Honda CRF450R

Suzuki RM-Z450

About This Guide

My two original sports heroes were Kenny Roberts and Walter Payton. I can’t even explain why that was exactly, since my superfan status for both predates my earliest memories, but they were damn good choices nonetheless. A life-long love of motorcycle racing ultimately shaped my choice of career. Meanwhile, my love of football – and the Chicago Bears in particular – mostly just determined my Sunday schedules and about three-quarters of my wardrobe.

However, that heavy football influence did manage to seep into my motorcycle racing journalism in a variety of ways. During my time as a beat reporter for a number of racing outlets, and later during a lengthy run as SPEED’s Motorcycle Racing Editor, I consciously sought out the best examples of NFL sports writing to emulate in my coverage of two-wheeled sport.

Far and away my favorite NFL writing was that of the late Joel Buchsbaum inside the pages of Pro Football Weekly. The reclusive Buchsbaum was the author of PFW’s remarkable NFL Draft Preview books and other scout-centric publications.

In a very real way, this guide is a tribute to Buchsbaum and a sincere attempt to bring his brand of journalism to the motorsports’ world. For those of you familiar with PFW’s products, the format of this guide should feel quite familiar. And for those of you who are not, don’t worry, you’ll catch on quick.

It’s my hope you find it at least a fraction as fascinating as I always did Buchsbaum’s work, and that this guide proves to be the first of many. Admittedly, it is something of an experiment and a gamble, but the desire is to turn this into an annual endeavor. At the very least, there will be two more releases in the Scout’s Guide to Motorcycle Racing ebook series coming your way soon; sister MotoGP and MotoAmerica scouting guides are currently in the works and slated for release in the coming months.

Following in the Buchsbaumian tradition, I positioned myself as a gatherer of information – not a scout. I did not rank the riders myself, nor did I make any judgments regarding their technique, strengths, or weaknesses. Rather, I collected the data and opinions of knowledgeable and well-connected supercross insiders in order to decipher a sort of paddock consensus. I then attempted to reflect that consensus in the individual scouting profiles.

While the insiders tended to see things the same way in most cases, there were some disagreements, including a few stark contradictions. Opinions that did not conform to the broader consensus were not included in the Scouting Report section of the rider profiles. However, those outliers were occasionally included as part of sections I called the Scout’s Notebook, which are collections of anonymous quotes from our experts intended to add another layer of insight to each entry.

As for the actual methodology, I asked supercross insiders numbering in the double digits to submit their combined class rider rankings. I went back and forth on just how deep these rider rankings should go. 15? 50? Ultimately, I decided to stick with the football theme and shoot for a Top 25. As with the NCAA Top 25, a first-place vote was good for 25 points, second was worth 24, and so on, all the way down to the single point awarded for 25th. In all, 38 different riders received at least one ballot point.

Additionally, in-depth interviews with a panel of experts (again numbering in the double digits) were conducted in order to build the scouting reports. There was significant overlap between the two groups, however, some insiders only supplied rankings while others provided assessments without actually ranking the riders.

In terms of composition, the interviewees consisted of a healthy mix of those in the know: active and former 450SX/MX riders, top-level team managers and mechanics, and a small sampling of veteran journalists. From the outset, it was decided that all interviews would be anonymous, whether the subjects requested that be the case or not, in order to secure the most honest critiques possible.

I’d like to offer my deepest thanks and appreciation for their honesty, as well as their time and expertise, without which the creation of this ebook would not have been possible.

Anyway, let’s get to the profiles. I hope you all really dig this. And please, if you do, help spread the word so we’re in a position to create an even bigger and better edition come 2017.

Chris Martin

The SGSX16 Top 25

#1: Undisputed

Photo: KTM

1. Ryan Dungey

#1 Red Bull KTM (450SX)

Top 25 voting analysis: Highest placement: First/Lowest: Second/Median: First

Birthdate: 12/4/89 (26)/Hometown: Belle Plaine, MN/Measurables: 5’11", 155lbs

Supercross titles: Two-time Supercross Champion (2010, 2015), 2009 250SX West Champion

Career Monster Energy Supercross victories: 34 (22 in the premier class)

2015 results: Champion (450SX), eight wins, 16 podiums, 17 top fives, 17 top 10s

With the exit of four-time reigning champion Ryan Villopoto, the 2015 Monster Energy Supercross championship was both perceived and promoted as a wide-open affair (#WhosNext anyone?). And while it may have even looked that way on a week-to-week basis, as the races and points accumulated, the standings made it obvious the season was anything but.

Ryan Dungey executed a dominating championship campaign in which he pummeled the competition into submission with his relentless excellence. Over the course of the season, he was on the podium in all but one race. His worst finish was fourth in a season where only four others even managed to line up for every Main Event. No other rider avoided finishing outside the top 10 on less than three occasions.

The end result was Dungey’s second-career premier class title. The first came during a 2010 season in which he capitalized as a rookie upstart while the championship dreams of preseason title favorites James Stewart, Chad Reed, and Ryan Villopoto were all extinguished by season-ending injuries. But in 2015, Dungey simply overmatched the opposition, elevating his riding to a whole new level. He scored as many victories (eight) as he had taken in all the years since his debut crown combined. Even more impressively, he did so while somehow simultaneously sidestepping the pitfalls that traditionally accompany that sort of blistering pace.

Unlike a year ago, Dungey enters the 2016 season a heavy odds-on favorite.

Scouting Report:

Strengths: Superior all-around racer. Technically sound with no glaring holes in his game. Ranks as either elite or borderline elite in nearly every category that determines supercross success. In the skills voting, Dungey was named the top rider in five of 14 areas and received at least one vote in 11 of those 14. Moreover, his minimal assortment of weaknesses are largely byproducts of his strengths and have directly contributed to his big-picture success.

Highly productive. Demonstrates rare (arguably unique) race-to-race consistency and strategic acumen. Rides within himself. Precise, calculated, patient, and always in control. Rarely surprised by what the bike is doing underneath him or what his competitors are doing around him.

Extraordinarily efficient, neutral, flowing style. Doesn’t overuse the brakes or the clutch, instead carrying maximum momentum through the corners. Not as quick on entrance as some others, preferring to allow the bike to settle and then carry through and out of the corner with greater overall speed. Especially strong in flat sweepers.

Underrated sprint speed and his long speed ranks among the very best.

Better scrubber than most realize. Gets back on the ground and powers on the downside of wall jumps better than any other rider – an increasingly important skill due to modern supercross track design.

Outstanding at getting out of the gates and positioning himself near the front of the pack from the opening lap (Dungey was rated the series’ best starter).