Unmasking Islamic State: Revealing Their Motivation, Theology and End Time Predictions

Sookhdeo combines the knowledge and clear writing style of a Bernard Lewis with the deft treatment of political correctness of a George Orwell. Those who seek to keep us ignorant of Islamist totalitarianism’s insidious efforts at silencing its enemies by accusations of Islamophobia and the like have just taken a stunningly powerful intellectual upper-cut.

James Woolsey

Former Director of the CIA

This is an impressive piece of work. There are few commentators around who understand the background to the Islamic State better than Patrick Sookhdeo, and his decomposition of its belief system, eschatology and ideology is conducted with great clarity. The recent declaration of the Caliphate ranks amongst the dominant issues of our time, and this relatively short book gives an extremely helpful analysis of its origins and development. As Patrick notes, the West has not yet devised a credible strategy to eliminate IS. It needs to, and this analysis will be an invaluable read for the political and military audience trying to get to grips with what they are engaging with, and for students/academics trying to better understand the ideological battle we are dealing with.

Major General Tim Cross CBE

Former UK Army Divisional Commander

UK military deputy to US Commander of ORHA/CPA in Baghdad in 2003

To design policies for winning the Cold War, Western leaders first had to understand the fundamental nature of the Soviet communist threat—the unity of its unwavering totalitarian ideology and its brutal and deceptive tactics. In this brilliant and concise monograph—packed with history, theology, philosophy, and practical analysis—Dr Sookhdeo focuses us on the equally mortal threat from Islamic State and the similar unity of its totalitarian ideology and terrorist practices. The West needs to use this handbook as a blueprint for action.

Kenneth E. deGraffenreid

Professor emeritus at the Institute of World Politics, Washington DC

Former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, USA

Former Deputy for National Counterintelligence, USA

Unmasking Islamic State: Revealing their Motivation, Theology and End Time Predictions

Published in the United States by Isaac Publishing 6729 Curran Street, McLean, Virginia 22101

Copyright ©2015 Patrick Sookhdeo

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form, or by means electronic, photocopy or recording without prior written permission of the publisher, except in quotations in written reviews.

Library of Congress Control Number: 2015951029

ISBN: 978-0-9967245-0-0

eISBN: 978-0-9967245-4-8

Book design by Lee Lewis Walsh, Words Plus Design

Printed in the United States of America

Contents

Introduction

1. Origins and history of the Islamic State (IS)

2. The ideology and theology of IS

3. Leadership, organizational structure and resources

4. Living under IS rule

5. Expanding reach: territory, information and recruitment

6. Assessing strengths and weaknesses

Conclusion: risks, continuing threats and responses

Appendix 1: Comparing Islamic State and Al-Qaeda

Appendix 2: Location of Islamic State affiliates

Appendix 3: Declaration of the Caliphate

Endnotes

Index

Introduction

The Islamic State (IS) is a radical Islamist Sunni Salafi/Jihadi organization¹ that aims at establishing a caliphate² under sharia³ first in Iraq and Syria, then in all Arab states and finally in the whole world.⁴ Islamic State ideology belongs to the more hard-line takfiri⁵ orientation within the wider movement.⁶

Its previous name, Islamic State in Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) or Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), is in Arabic al-dawla al Islamiyya fil Iraq wal-sham, known by its Arabic acronym daesh.⁷ In June 2014 it changed its name to Islamic State and declared the re-establishment of the global Islamic caliphate with its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as caliph. It demanded that all Muslims proclaim their allegiance (bay‘a) to him.⁸

Its military success in Iraq and Syria since 2013, and its setting up of a territorial Islamic state as the caliphate have spread its influence among Sunni Muslims worldwide, radicalizing many and exacerbating the Sunni/Shia divide.⁹

Attempts to understand and counter Islamic State have been hampered by a lack of understanding of the group’s ideology and in particular of the theology which infuses this ideology. It is important to understand how the group’s ideology has been inspired by Islamic radical thought. Perhaps even more important is a clear assessment of how Islamic State’s ideology relates to ideologies present in the Muslim mainstream and to key historical and theological traditions within Islam. Through news reports on the conflict in Syria and Iraq, for example, Western observers have become familiar with the IS black flag, though few in the West fully grasp the significance of the symbolism it employs, or the sense of mission with which it empowers IS fighters.

Images of the flag reveal the words La ‘ilaha ‘illallah - There is no God but God - in white, and in Arabic script, on a plain black background. The name of Allah in itself renders the flag a powerful and sacred object, but at its center is a white circle within which is written: God Messenger Mohammed. According to experts on radical Islamism the circle and the words are a copy of the Seal of Mohammed, which the prophet himself is believed to have used to authenticate letters he wrote to foreign leaders.¹⁰ Magnus Ranstorp, the Research Director of the Centre for Asymmetric Threat Studies at the Swedish National Defense College points out that Al Qaeda in Iraq, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (active in Yemen and Saudi Arabia), and the al-Shabab group in Somalia have all used the same flag. He says, The most important thing is the color. This…was the Prophet Mohammed’s war banner…This flag…harks back to where they came from and where they are going. It is not just the color of jihad and of the caliphate, but it represents the coming of what some believers see as the final battle and the day of resurrection. He adds, there’s a kind of Islamic end-of-days element in the flag, pitting the forces of Islam against the Christian West.¹¹ Essentially, then, the flag signals that the IS forces are on what they understand as a sacred mission - to destroy the current world order and to put a caliphate in its place.

There also needs to be a far greater appreciation of the sophistication of Islamic State’s level of organization, of the resources the group has at its disposal and of its strengths in communicating its ideology through a highly effective information strategy.

This paper seeks to shed light on the core ideology, organizational structure and strategy of Islamic State. While Islamic State is likely both to claim victories and suffer defeats over the coming months and even years, these core elements are unlikely to radically change.

CHAPTER ONE

Origins and history of the Islamic State (IS)

Islamic State’s history demonstrates that it has the resilience that all successful terrorist/insurgency groups have to have. Successful groups are able to recover from setbacks and regain their strength. Part of the reason for this is that they see themselves as fighting a long war and they aim to outlast their opponents. The ideology which has motivated support for the group still remains relevant and attractive. Islamic State has already demonstrated that it can recover from defeats and from huge loses of personel, including experienced leaders. This suggests a pessimistic prospect; Islamic State is likely to remain a persistent threat, even if it suffers overwhelming defeats. In its magazine Dabiq, Islamic State quoted from Islamic sources to emphasize the importance of outlasting its enemies: Zayd Ibn Aslam said, ‘Be patient upon jihad, outlast your enemy in patience, and perform ribat [defined by IS as defending the frontier post] against your enemy’ [Tasfir at-Tabari].¹²

Islamic State has shown a degree of flexibility, particularly in the alliances it forms with those who can help it and the changes it has made to organizational structure. However, its ideology has not changed significantly in the years it has been active. The group’s tactical flexibility has allowed it to be fluid and to seize on the opportunities which have presented themselves in an ever changing and very volatile environment.

The development of the Islamic State can be divided into five eras:¹³

1. Emergence, 2002-2004 - the group first emerged in 2002 as jamaat al-tawhid wal-jihad¹⁴ under the leadership of Abu Mus‘ab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian Salafi/Jihadi who had fought in Afghanistan before moving to Iraq in 2001. Al-Zarqawi was more influenced by takfiri ideology than the AI-Qaeda leadership, and was responsible for the group’s extreme anti-Shiism and its focus on restoring the caliphate.

The group sought to exploit the conditions created by the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq which eliminated the state-bearing structures of the Baath Party and the Iraqi Army, creating a vacuum that enabled the emergence of violent Islamist insurgencies, both Sunni and Shia.¹⁵

2. Merger with AI-Qaeda in Iraq, 2004-2006 - in 2004 al-Zarqawi swore allegiance to Osama Bin-Laden, uniting al-tawhid wal-jihad with the Al-Qaeda Iraqi franchise as AI-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) under his leadership. AQI engaged in brutal provocative attacks on Shia citizens, mosques and shrines in the hope of igniting a civil war.¹⁶

3. Period of weakness, 2006-2010 - The brutality of AQI, even against Sunnis, triggered co-operation between Sunni tribal leaders¹⁷ and the American military surge. In June 2006 al-Zarqawi was killed by a US air strike, initiating a period of decline for AQI. In January 2006, AQI had joined other Sunni insurgent groups to form the Mujahidin Shura Council (MSC), which in October 2006 proclaimed itself as the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), with AQI as its leading organization under a new leader, the Egyptian Abu Ayyub al-Masri and an overall leader, the Iraqi Abu ‘Umar al-Baghdadi.¹⁸ Between 2007 and 2010, ISI lost most of its manpower in attacks by the combined Iraqi, US and Sunni Awakening forces. Several of its leaders were killed,¹⁹ including Al-Masri and Abu Abdullah al-Rashid al-Baghdadi, and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi became the new leader.²⁰

During this time a number of imprisoned ISI leaders came into contact with former high ranking Baathist military officers and officials in US-run prison camps.²¹ The result was a powerful fusion of Salafi/Jihadi ideology with professional military and counterintelligence strategies and urban warfare tactics, as well as bureaucratic know how needed to run a state.²²

4. Resurgence, 2010-2014 - the secret of the group’s resurgence lies in its alliance with the former Baathist officers and officials who contributed their skills.²³ Salafi/Jihadis and radicalized Baathists united under its ideological banner to form an effective leadership core.²⁴

In 2009 Shia Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki initiated increasingly sectarian policies which marginalized Iraq’s Sunnis.²⁵ Exploiting Sunni resentment and the deepening Sunni-Shia rift, al-Baghdadi developed a powerful support base among alienated Sunnis, blending his group into local communities and giving it a leading role in Sunni resistance. At the same time, the Baath officers turned ISI into a professional fighting force.²⁶ ISI continued to conduct high-profile attacks while expanding its territorial base.²⁷ It used untrained foreign volunteers as suicide bombers utilizing both suicide vests and vehicles packed with explosives.²⁸

The Syrian civil war that began in March 2011 created an opportunity for ISI intervention. Al-Baghdadi sent a small number of fighters to Syria to build an organization and establish secure bases. In January 2012 this Syrian branch was officially founded as the Al-Nusra Front, which soon established itself as the main rebel group in Idlib, Deir al-Zor and Aleppo.²⁹

In March 2013 ISI overran the provincial city of Raqqa on the Euphrates and made it its capital. ISI appointed a new city council and organized a variety of civil organizations to supply needed services. Hundreds of known opponents were brutally eliminated, creating fear and subservience.³⁰

In April 2013, fearing Al-Nusra was getting too independent, al-Baghdadi announced the merger of ISI with Al-Nusra Front under the name of Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS).³¹ However, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, leader of Al-Nusra, and Ayman al-Zawahiri, leader of AI-Qaeda, rejected the merger. After an eight-month power struggle, AI-Qaeda cut all ties with ISIS on 3 February 2014, while Al-Nusra publicly pledged allegiance to AI-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.³² This created a rift between the two largest and most efficient Salafi/Jihadi organizations, as ISIS fought Al-Nusra and other rebel groups to establish itself in Syria. Although initially pushed out of several regions of northern Syria in 2014, an influx of ISIS fighters from Iraq helped it defend Raqqa and reconquer several lost territories.³³ In Iraq in January 2014 it took over Fallujah, 40 miles west of Baghdad.³⁴

5. As the Islamic State (IS), 2014 onwards - In June 2014, ISIS conducted a lightning drive through northern and western Iraq, seizing Mosul and Tikrit as well as large areas of Ninewah, Salah al-Din and Ta’mim provinces. It captured several strategic border crossings with Syria as well as some hydroelectric dams and oil refineries. It also gained large quantities