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    Decision-Making Management: A Tutorial and Applications
    Decision-Making Management: A Tutorial and Applications
    Decision-Making Management: A Tutorial and Applications
    Ebook282 pages3 hours

    Decision-Making Management: A Tutorial and Applications

    By Alberto Pliego Marugan and Fausto Pedro Garcia Marquez

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    About this ebook

    Decision-Making Management: A Tutorial and Applications provides practical guidance for researchers seeking to optimizing business-critical decisions employing Logical Decision Trees thus saving time and money. The book focuses on decision-making and resource allocation across and between the manufacturing, product design and logistical functions. It demonstrates key results for each sector with diverse real-world case studies drawn primarily from EU projects. Theory is accompanied by relevant analysis techniques, with a progressional approach building from simple theory to complex and dynamic decisions with multiple data points, including big data and lot of data. Binary Decision Diagrams are presented as the operating approach for evaluating large Logical Decision Trees, helping readers identify Boolean equations for quantitative analysis of multifaceted problem sets. Computational techniques, dynamic analysis, probabilistic methods, and mathematical optimization techniques are expertly blended to support analysis of multi-criteria decision-making problems with defined constraints and requirements. The final objective is to optimize dynamic decisions with original approaches employing useful tools, including Big Data analysis. Extensive annexes provide useful supplementary information for readers to follow methods contained in the book.

    • Explores the use of logical decision trees to solve business problems
    • Uses mathematical optimization techniques to resolve ‘big data’ or other multi-criteria problems
    • Provides annexes showcasing application in manufacturing, product design and logistics
    • Shows case examples in telecommunications, renewable energy and aerospace
    • Supplies introduction by Benjamin Lev, Editor-in-Chief of Omega, the highest-ranked journal in management science (JCR)
    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherAcademic Press
    Release dateJul 20, 2017
    ISBN9780128115411
    Decision-Making Management: A Tutorial and Applications
    Author

    Alberto Pliego Marugan

    Dr. Alberto Pliego Marugán holds a doctorate (cum laude) in Industrial Engineering at the University of Castilla-la Mancha (UCLM, Spain), with international mention. He is the main author of several works related to machine learning, optimization algorithms, maintenance management, and decision-making in industry. He worked at Everis and he is currently a PostDoc member of the Ingenium Research Group at UCLM.

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      Book preview

      Decision-Making Management - Alberto Pliego Marugan

      Decision-Making Management

      A Tutorial and Applications

      First Edition

      Alberto Pliego Marugán

      Fausto Pedro García Márquez

      Table of Contents

      Cover image

      Title page

      Copyright

      List of Figures

      List of Tables

      Authors

      Foreword

      Preface

      Nomenclature

      Summary

      Chapter 1: Introduction

      Abstract

      1.1 Background

      1.2 Introduction to the Decision Making

      1.3 Overview of Approaches for Decision Making

      1.4 Management Planning and Control

      1.5 Logical Decision Trees

      1.6 Types of Logical Decision Trees

      1.7 Terminology of Complex Logical Decision Trees

      Chapter 2: Logical Decision Tree Analysis

      Abstract

      2.1 Introduction

      2.2 Stages of the Analysis

      2.4 Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Analysis

      2.5 Common Cause Occurrences

      2.6 Limitations of Conventional Methods for Tree Analysis

      Chapter 3: Binary Decision Diagrams

      Abstract

      3.1 Introduction

      3.2 BDDs Rules and Operations

      3.3 Variable Ranking

      3.4 Evaluation of Binary Decision Diagrams

      3.5 Advantages of the Binary Decision Diagrams

      Chapter 4: Case Studies

      Abstract

      4.1 LDT Without MOEs

      4.2 LDT With a MOE at the Same Level

      4.3 LDT With MOEs at Different Levels

      4.4 LDT Alternating AND and OR Gates at Different Levels

      4.5 LDT With Several MOEs at Different Levels

      4.6 New Approach to Reduce Computational Cost

      Chapter 5: Dynamic Analysis of LDT

      Abstract

      5.1 Introduction

      5.2 Case Study 1

      5.3 Case Study 2

      Chapter 6: DM Optimization

      Abstract

      6.1 Introduction

      6.2 DM Approach

      6.4 Approach to the Optimization Problem

      6.5 Example

      6.6 Dynamic Analysis and Optimization

      6.7 Example

      Annex A: Boolean Algebra

      Annex B: Symbology of the Logical Decision Tree

      Annex C: Probability Theory

      C.1 Nomenclature

      C.2 Useful Relations

      Annex D: Importance Analysis: Practical Cases

      Case 1

      Case 2

      Case 3

      References

      Index

      Copyright

      Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier

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      © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

      No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Details on how to seek permission, further information about the Publisher’s permissions policies and our arrangements with organizations such as the Copyright Clearance Center and the Copyright Licensing Agency, can be found at our website: www.elsevier.com/permissions.

      This book and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copyright by the Publisher (other than as may be noted herein).

      Notices

      Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and experience broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional practices, or medical treatment may become necessary.

      Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described herein. In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility.

      To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or editors, assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein.

      Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

      A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress

      British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data

      A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

      ISBN 978-0-12-811540-4

      For information on all Academic Press publications visit our website at https://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals

      Publisher: Nikki Levy

      Acquisition Editor: Graham Nisbet

      Editorial Project Manager: Susan Ikeda

      Production Project Manager: Poulouse Joseph

      Cover Designer: Mark Rogers

      Typeset by SPi Global, India

      List of Figures

      Fig. 1.1 Decisions classification 3

      Fig. 1.2 Stages in the LDT analysis 8

      Fig. 2.1 Schedule in the LDT analysis 12

      Fig. 2.2 LDT example 23

      Fig. 2.3 LDT of a redundant subsystem including CCO 24

      Fig. 3.1 BDD structure 28

      Fig. 3.2 BDD for ite(xi, f1, f2) 29

      Fig. 3.3 ITE notation for a variable 29

      Fig. 3.4 BDD associated with Table 3.1 31

      Fig. 3.5 Elimination of duplicate terminal vertices 31

      Fig. 3.6 Elimination of duplicate nonterminal vertices 32

      Fig. 3.7 Elimination of redundant vertices 32

      Fig. 3.8 Logical sum of two variables 33

      Fig. 3.9 Graph associated to Eq. (3.12) 33

      Fig. 3.10 BDD for the logical sum (OR) of two logical functions 34

      Fig. 3.11 BDD for the logical product (AND) of two variables 34

      Fig. 3.12 Graph associated to Eq. (3.14) 35

      Fig. 3.13 BDD for the logical product (AND) of two logical functions 35

      Fig. 3.14 Example of a LTD 37

      Fig. 3.15 Resulting BBD for x1<x2<x3<x4 38

      Fig. 3.16 BBD for x4<x3<x2<x1 39

      Fig. 3.17 Top-Down Left-Right ranking method 40

      Fig. 3.18 Depth First Search ranking method 41

      Fig. 3.19 Weights’ method 42

      Fig. 3.20 Scheme of the new approach for ranking events 44

      Fig. 3.21 Weighting of the logic gates by the new ranking method 45

      Fig. 3.22 Stages of the LDT analysis via BDD 47

      Fig. 3.23 LDT for f=x1 x2 x3+x1 x4 48

      Fig. 3.24 BDD for f=x1 x2 x3+x1 x4 49

      Fig. 4.1 Simple LDT without MOEs (LDT01) 53

      Fig. 4.2 BDD corresponding to LDT01 54

      Fig. 4.3 LDT with a MOE (LDT02) 55

      Fig. 4.4 BDD corresponding to LDT02 55

      Fig. 4.5 LDT with MOEs at different levels (LDT03) 56

      Fig. 4.6 BDD corresponding to LDT03 57

      Fig. 4.7 LDT alternating AND and OR gates (LDT04) 58

      Fig. 4.8 BDD corresponding to LDT04 58

      Fig. 4.9 LDT with several MOEs at different levels (LDT05) 59

      Fig. 4.10 BDD corresponding to LDT05 60

      Fig. 4.11 LDT case considered for topologic study 62

      Fig. 4.12 Experimental results and estimations 63

      Fig. 4.13 Probability analysis 63

      Fig. 4.14 Deviation versus number of AND 63

      Fig. 4.15 CS analysis 64

      Fig. 5.1 Logical decision tree 66

      Fig. 5.2 Binary decision diagram (BDD) obtained from Fig. 5.1 67

      Fig. 5.3 Probability of MP occurrence 69

      Fig. 5.4 Fussel-Vesely IMs 70

      Fig. 5.5 LDT dynamic analysis example 70

      Fig. 5.6 Dynamic occurrence probabilities 72

      Fig. 5.7 Flowchart for dynamic occurrence probabilities 72

      Fig. 5.8 Probability assignment. Example 74

      Fig. 5.9 QMP over the time. Example 74

      Fig. 5.10 Dynamic Birnbaum IM. Example 75

      Fig. 5.11 Dynamic Criticality IM. Example 76

      Fig. 5.12 Dynamic Fussel-Vesely IM. Example 76

      Fig. 6.1 Proposed optimization method process 77

      Fig. 6.2 Example of a LDT 78

      Fig. 6.3 Flowchart for f(Imp(ei)) 82

      Fig. 6.4 Flowchart for A matrix 83

      Fig. 6.5 How to generate b vector 84

      Fig. 6.6 Optimization with fmincon 84

      Fig. 6.7 Tools shortage as MP 85

      Fig. 6.8 Optimization algorithm flowchart 88

      Fig. 6.9 Threshold limit simulations flowchart 89

      Fig. 6.10 Feasible points after optimization 90

      Fig. 6.11 Events improvement 91

      Fig. 6.12 Maximum investment allowed 94

      Fig. 6.13 Optimal investment 94

      Fig. 6.14 Optimal investment allocation 95

      Fig. 6.15 Percentage improvement 95

      Fig. C.1 Probability of the union of events using the Upper Bond approximation 103

      Fig. D.1 LDT without MOEs 105

      Fig. D.2 LDT with one MOE 107

      Fig. D.3 LDT with two AND gates at different levels 111

      List of Tables

      Table 3.1 Truth table for f=x2 x3+x1 x3+x1 x2 x3 31

      Table 3.2 Importance of basic events 46

      Table 3.3 LDTs characteristics 46

      Table 3.4 Cut-sets obtained by the ranking events 46

      Table 3.5 Benefits and drawbacks 51

      Table 4.1 Comparison of different heuristic methods for LDT05 60

      Table 5.1 Probability functions 68

      Table 5.2 Probability assignment example 73

      Table 6.1 Data obtained after optimization 87

      Table 6.2 Probability reduction 90

      Table 6.3 Probabilities for the optimization of each event 90

      Table 6.4 MP probability of occurrence 91

      Table 6.5 Costs considering the optimization solution 91

      Table 6.6 Case study: initial conditions 93

      Table D.1 Rankings considering the different methods for the example 1 117

      Table D.2 Resulting rankings according to the different methods for example 2 117

      Table D.3 Resulting rankings according to the different methods for example 3 118

      Authors

      Alberto Pliego Marugán received his International Doctorate at the School of Industrial Engineers of Ciudad Real in 2016. In 2013, he completed MSc in Industrial Engineering from by the University of Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Ciudad Real, Spain. From 2012, he is engineer by UCLM (Ciudad Real) and, from 2009, he is technical engineer by UCLM (Ciudad Real).

      He has given some lectures on occupational risk prevention and organization of the production in the E.I.M.I.A. (Almadén, Spain). He has also taken classes in signal processing and industrial management at the UCLM.

      Between 2012 and 2013, he worked as solution assistant in Everis Spain S.L. His principal

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