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    Pacific Economic Monitor July 2016
    Pacific Economic Monitor July 2016
    Pacific Economic Monitor July 2016
    Ebook140 pages1 hour

    Pacific Economic Monitor July 2016

    By Asian Development Bank

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    About this ebook

    This issue of the Pacific Economic Monitor updates the 2016 and 2017 GDP growth and inflation projections ADB's Pacific developing member countries. The theme of the policy briefs in this issue is Fisheries in Pacific Economies.
    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherAsian Development Bank
    Release dateJul 1, 2016
    ISBN9789292575328
    Pacific Economic Monitor July 2016

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      Book preview

      Pacific Economic Monitor July 2016 - Asian Development Bank

      Pacific Economic Monitor

      July 2016

      www.adb.org/pacmonitor

      The Monitor provides an update of developments in Pacific economies and explores topical policy issues.

      Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)

      © 2016 ADB. The CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication.

      Some rights reserved. Published in 2016.

      Printed in the Philippines.

      ISBN 978-92-9257-531-1 (Print), 978-92-9257-532-8 (e-ISBN) Publication Stock No. RPS168257-2

      Cataloging-In-Publication Data

      Asian Development Bank

      Pacific Economic Monitor, July 2016.

      Mandaluyong City, Philippines:

      Asian Development Bank, 2016.

      This edition of the Monitor was prepared by Yurendra Basnett, Robin Boumphrey, Prince Cruz, Caroline Currie, Christopher Edmonds (editor-in-chief), David Freedman, Malie Lototele, Rommel Rabanal, Bing Radoc, Roland Rajah, Shiu Raj Singh, Cara Tinio, and Laisiasa Tora of the Pacific Department. Publishing production assistance was provided by Cecil Caparas.

      The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.

      ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use.

      By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term country in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.

      This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms of this license.

      Contents

      Highlights

      •Weaker global outlook. Global growth forecasts for 2016 have been lowered to 3.1%. Although prospects for the People’s Republic of China have improved modestly, developments following the United Kingdom’s decision to exit the European Union suggest that there are significant risks to the global economic outlook. Low prices for energy and nonfuel commodities are supporting a low-inflation environment globally.

      •Smaller Pacific economies support subregional growth. Most Pacific economies are unlikely to be significantly affected by global uncertainty and growth is forecast at 3.9% for 2016. Prospects for smaller economies have improved slightly, reflecting stronger than expected performance in tourism, fisheries, and construction. In contrast, the outlook for Fiji is weaker due to the impact of Cyclone Winston.

      •Harnessing fisheries resources. Fisheries are among the most important resources for smaller island economies and have been heavily exploited. Through regional cooperation, Pacific economies have had some success in fisheries conservation and generating increased revenues from the sale of fishing licenses under the vessel day scheme. Prudent management of fishing license revenues has involved strengthening fiscal buffers and deposits to trust funds.

      EEZ = exclusive economic zone, MT = metric ton. Notes: Number of vessels excludes coastal fleets of Japan, and fleets in domestic fisheries of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam; while catches include the entire western and central Pacific area. Status of of tuna fisheries’ sustainability based on assessments by the World Wildlife Fund. https://www.worldwildlife.org/species/tuna

      aWestern and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission. 2015. Tuna Fishery Yearbook 2014. Kolonia (October).

      Abbreviations

      Asian Development Bank projections

      e = estimate, FSM = Federated States of Micronesia, GDP = gross domestic product, p = projection.

      Note: Projections are as of July 2016 and refer to fiscal years. Regional averages of GDP growth and inflation are computed using weights derived from levels of gross national income in current US dollars following the World Bank Atlas method. Averages for the Pacific islands exclude Papua New Guinea and Timor-Leste. Timor-Leste’s GDP is exclusive of the offshore petroleum industry and the contribution of the United Nations.

      Source: ADB estimates.

      Notes

      This Monitor uses year-on-year (y-o-y) percentage changes to reduce the impact of seasonality, and 3-month moving averages (m.a.) to reduce the impact of volatility in monthly data.

      Fiscal years end on 30 June for the Cook Islands, Nauru, Samoa, and Tonga; 30 September in the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, and Palau; and 31 December elsewhere.

      The Economic Setting

      International and regional developments

      Global growth stalling

      •Forecasts for global growth in 2016 have been lowered to 3.1%—the same rate as last year—due to weakness in demand, international trade, and capital flows, as well as demographic trends and lackluster productivity growth. Prospects for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have improved modestly during the first half of the year, with adjustment toward services and consumption—away from investment and manufacturing—but the IMF warns that the situation in many leading economies could further reduce global growth. Other major risk factors include the repercussions of the United Kingdom’s vote to exit the European Union, tighter credit conditions, major exchange rate fluctuations, and further weakness in commodity markets.

      •Average oil prices fell by 43% in 2015, but have risen 11% in the first half of 2016. Amid an expected slowdown in demand for commodities, these increases are not expected to continue in the second half of 2016.

      •Low prices for energy and nonfuel commodities are supporting a low-inflation environment globally. This leaves most monetary policy makers with room for further accommodative measures. However, divergence in monetary policy stance is evident among major central banks: In December 2015 the Federal Reserve hiked its target rate; in January 2016 the

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