Hezbollah - Cuckoo in the Nest

Europe exposed

"Terrorism in Europe has killed 11,288 people in 18,811 attacks since January 1970, according to the University of Maryland National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism’s Global Terrorism Database, which tracks more than 170,000 foreign and domestic incidents worldwide."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/a-history-of-terrorism-in-europe/

"From 1970 to 2016: 5,215 people died from bombings. 2,463 from assassinations. 2,270 from assaults. 957 from hostage situations. 183 from hijackings. 88 from building attacks. Thousands wounded or missing."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/a-history-of-terrorism-in-europe/

This however is nothing compared to the bloodshed and mayhem that would result if ethnic warfare was to break out in Europe in the future.

One such scenario could be if the Northern Spanish region Catalonia was to gain independence with a fanatised leadership that had to seek alliances with Iran, Russia, Qatar, Libya, Venezuela, North Korea.

Europe could come into the situation that Hezbollah could organize terror attacks in several or many EU member states as a way of supporting an independent Catalonia.

At the same time Hezbollah forces could move into Catalonia and secure the fanatised leadership, which does not have military at its disposal at the moment, only a local police force.

In general, terrorist attacks have been rarer in the United States than in Europe. Its borders are less porous, by geography and by design.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/11/01/why-truck-attacks-are-so-common-in-europe-but-not-the-united-states/?utm_term=.871b1bb10d52

This statement would appear true only in relation to external borders, as internal borders in the United States are not monitored as internal borders are between EU member states.

Most EU member states are members of the Shengen agreement, which allows free movement of persons with a Shengen visa.

"At a press conference in Brussels on May 2, the EU Commissioner in charge of migration, Dimitris Avramopoulos, called on Austria, Denmark, Germany, Norway and Sweden — among the wealthiest and most sought after destinations in Europe for migrants — to phase out the temporary controls currently in place at their internal Schengen borders over the next six months.

The so-called Schengen Agreement, which took effect in March 1995, abolished many of the EU's internal borders, enabling passport-free movement across most of the bloc. The Schengen Agreement, along with the single European currency, are fundamental pillars of the European Union and essential building-blocks for constructing a United States of Europe. With the long-term sustainability of the single currency and open borders in question, advocates of European federalism are keen to preserve both.

Avramopoulos, who argued that border controls are not in the European spirit of solidarity and cooperation, said:

The time has come to take the last concrete steps to gradually return to a normal functioning of the Schengen Area. This is our goal, and it remains unchanged. A fully functioning Schengen area, free from internal border controls. Schengen is one of the greatest achievements of the European project. We must do everything to protect it.

The temporary border controls were established in September 2015, after hundreds of thousands of migrants arrived in Europe, and when EU member states, led by Germany, gave special permission to some EU countries to impose emergency controls for up to two years. Since then, the European Union has approved six-month extensions of controls at the German-Austrian border, at Austria's frontiers with Hungary and Slovenia and at Danish, Swedish and Norwegian borders (Norway is a member of Schengen but not the EU). Several countries have argued that they need border controls to combat the threat of Islamic militancy." (emphasis added).

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/10307/europe-more-migrants

"Europe, with its close proximity to Africa, its land bridge to the Middle East and its neighbourly status with more politically volatile nations to the East, will feel these pressures first. The US will likely hold out longer, surrounded as it is by ocean buffers. "

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170418-how-western-civilisation-could-collapse

The citation is from a piece - How Western civilisation could collapse - by Rachel Nuwer. It was published by the BBC 18 April 2017 and re-printed so to speak at year’s end 2017 as one of the best articles that year.

The paragraph underscores the dangers to Europe, without really naming the peril.

In an article 4 March 2016 BBC itself gave another version, showing the sea crossings as the main entry method into EU, quoting EU Frontex agency

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911

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The sea crossings are a very potent danger to EU according to Antonio Tajani, an Italian politician appointed as president for the European Parliament 29 March 2017 -

If we fail to resolve the central problems of African nations, 10, 20 or even 30 million migrants will come to the European Union in the next 10 years.

To prevent this scenario from happening, Europe must pour billions worth of investments and develop a long-term strategy, Tajani said. Otherwise, Africa risks becoming a Chinese colony, but the Chinese need only natural resources, they’re not interested in stability.

The comprehensive interview comes on the heels of the so-called ‘migration summit’ held between European and North African interior ministers in Rome last week. One year after a controversial refugee deal with Turkey to stem influx of migrants crossing the Aegean Sea to Greece, the EU is now seeking to reach a similar pact with war-ravaged Libya, despite intense criticism from human rights groups."

https://www.rt.com/news/382706-african-migrants-millions-europe/However

However, the plans to stabilize Africa appear to be nothing but wishful thinking –

"On May 2, however, German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel reversed course by saying the deal ignored the catastrophic conditions in Libya and would not curb migration. He said that Germany now favored tackling migration by fighting instability in Africa:

What we are trying instead is to help stabilize the countries on the continent. But that is difficult. We will have to show staying power, stamina and patience. This is in the interest of Africans but also in the interest of Europeans.

Gabriel's long-term solution — which in the best of circumstances could take decades to bear fruit — implies that mass migration from Africa to Europe will continue unabated for many years to come."

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/10307/europe-more-migrants

Antonio Tajani, president for the European Parliament, continued –

The so-called Islamic State [IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL] seeks to embed terrorists with refugees, he said. They explain them that it’s now quite easy to carry out an attack in a European state using a knife or a car.... adding, terrorists are coming to the European Union via all routes, particularly through the Balkans. (emphasis added).

https://www.rt.com/news/382706-african-migrants-millions-europe/

The statements by President of the European Parliament Antonio Trajani shows that the European political elites are very well aware of the dangers of the land bridge to Turkey (and Ukraine, Russia).

"The migrants arriving there are overwhelmingly economic migrants seeking a better life in Europe. Only a very small number appear to be legitimate asylum seekers or refugees fleeing warzones. According to the IOM, the migrants who reached Italy during the first three months of 2017 are, in descending order, from: Guinea, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Ivory Coast, Gambia, Senegal, Morocco, Mali, Somalia and Eritrea....

The director of the United Nations office in Geneva, Michael Møller, has warned that Europe must prepare for the arrival of millions more migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East. In an interview with The Times, Møller, a Dane, said:

What we have been seeing is one of the biggest human migrations in history. And it's just going to accelerate. Young people all have cellphones and they can see what's happening in other parts of the world, and that acts as a magnet.

German Development Minister Gerd Müller has echoed that warning:

The biggest migration movements are still ahead: Africa's population will double in the next decades. A country like Egypt will grow to 100 million people, Nigeria to 400 million. In our digital age with the internet and mobile phones, everyone knows about our prosperity and lifestyle.

Müller added that only 10% of those currently on the move have reached Europe: Eight to ten million migrants are still on the way.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/10307/europe-more-migrants

It is easy to understand that a terror organization with battle hardened fighters from the civil war in Syria will be much more of a threat to European citizens that knife or car wielding lone terrorists.

The article - How Western civilisation could collapse - by Rachel Nuwer. also lumps the United States and Europe into the same stew, without analysing the clear differences in policy and geography.

Battle hardened fighters

Hezbollah is not just any terror organization – it is a terror organization that at the same time is a state within a state, in Lebanon, and takes part in the internal and international politics. It is in practice an independent country – South Lebanon – it is in practice Lebanon itself.

A very interesting commentary and estimate of Hezbollahs military strength can be found on Pando.com.

The article explains why gaging the strength of Hezbollah is difficult and must be done differently:

"Because they’re a tribe. Tribes don’t die. The Alawites of Syria and the Shia of South Lebanon and the Bekaa valley are typical Levantine tribes: paranoid, cohesive, virtually impossible to eradicate. You’d think the Israelis, a classic Levantine enclave themselves, would understand that....

In fact, Hezbollah is stronger than ever. It’s not just the strongest armed force in Lebanon—much stronger than the official Lebanese Army; it’s also the strongest Arab armed force, period."

https://pando.com/2015/07/02/war-nerd-how-many-soldiers-does-hezbollah-have-and-why-it-so-hard-find-out/

Using this starting point, pando refers estimates by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) of Hezbollah as having up to 700,000 troops including reserves:

"Hezbollah kicked IS’s ass, period.

But it’s surprisingly hard to get a sane estimate of Hezbollah manpower. Some of the published estimates are just laughable. There are stories out there that Hezbollah is getting by with only 1000 full-time fighters, backed up by 6000-7000 reserves.

The Israeli Defense Force’s (IDF’s) total strength is roughly 700,000 including reserves.

Hezbollah fought the IDF to a draw, at the very least, in 2006. So if Hezbollah’s strength, including reserves, was something like 7- or 8000 – well, I’m no mathematician, but I think that would mean they beat a force that was a nice, tidy 100 times bigger than their own, which would mean that either Hezbollah is fielding supermen, or the IDF is even worse than the Iraqi Army...."

https://pando.com/2015/07/02/war-nerd-how-many-soldiers-does-hezbollah-have-and-why-it-so-hard-find-out/

Pando continues with an explanation of why this enormous military strength is not reported in the media, which of course reports what they are being told, instead of doing an independent analysis –

"What’s going on here is that the US and Israel want to exaggerate the power of Hezbollah’s rockets, while completely blacking out what really scares them: the fact that man for man, squad for squad, Hezbollah’s infantry is better than Israel’s....

The reason for this hatred is simple fear. Israel fears Hezbollah, but has contempt for Sunni militias. The fear is well grounded, too. It goes back to 1982, when the Begin government idiotically invaded Southern Lebanon, infuriating the Lebanese Shia who’d ignored the Israel/Palestine war until then.

Within a few months, the invasion turned the Shia from docile peasants, the poorest of Lebanon’s poor, to fighters way tougher than any Palestinian. From 1982 on, Israel faced constant harassment from the Shi’ite peasantry of South Lebanon. The IDF was finally driven out in May 2000. The next encounter between Hezbollah and Israel started with a Hezbollah kidnapping along the border, in 2006. When the IDF tried to go into Hezbollah territory to get its soldiers back, they were defeated outright....

The IDF resorted to bombing civilian infrastructure all over Lebanon rather than confronting Hezbollah on the ground. It was an ugly way to make a lost war look like victory..."

https://pando.com/2015/07/02/war-nerd-how-many-soldiers-does-hezbollah-have-and-why-it-so-hard-find-out/

The really frightening analysis is that Hezbollah has more fighting power than all but the top five armies in the World – regardless of a battle in urban areas in an independent Catalonia would have unacceptable ^collateral damage^ - loss of civilian lives -

In 2014, Benny Gantz, a top IDF general, admitted as much, trashing all the doomed Hezbollah" stories by saying that Hezbollah had more combat power than all but the five top nation-state armies in the world. And Gantz turned the dumb-ass meme about Syria on its head, arguing that what makes Hezbollah more dangerous than ever is its combat experience in Syria.

Gantz was brutally honest about the situation, admitting that the only thing deterring Hezbollah from attacking Israel is the prospect that the IAF would retaliate by flattening every civilian building in Lebanon, which would interfere with Hezbollah’s political ambitions within the country:

‘Hezbollah is like a state and they know exactly what is going to happen in Lebanon if they start a war with us, and that this would set Lebanon back decades,’ [Gantz] said."

https://pando.com/2015/07/02/war-nerd-how-many-soldiers-does-hezbollah-have-and-why-it-so-hard-find-out/

Imagine that you invite such a force into Catalonia, with the protection of international law and especially Article 51 in the Charter of the United Nations on the right to self defense.

Any attempt by Spain or another country of subduing an independent Catalonia, one this independence has been declared and accepted or being backed up by military force would be aggression that would allow the government of an independent Catalonia to take almost any measure to protect its territory and its integrity.

This is why it is imperative not to establish unilateral independence in the first place, because it has severe and irreversible consequences for all of Europe. It would be difficult to dislodge an expeditionary force, whether Russian ^little green men^ or battle hardened Hezbollah fighters, also  in legal terms.

Syria has used precisely the argument of sovereignty against un-invited interference, like American troops on the ground. It has invited Russia and Hezbollah precisely based on this legal argument in international law.

Charter of the United Nations

Article 51

Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defence shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security.

http://legal.un.org/repertory/art51.shtml

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Certainly such an invited army would need weapons and perhaps air support, but that can be solved, with European politicians covering from the bloodshed that would be necessary to root out an expeditionary force once it had come on shore in Catalonia.

The civilian death toll would be staggering and generally European politicians have no stomach for blood.

Hezbollah’s budget is estimated at about 100 million dollars a year, which is mostly received from Iran. This money is used to finance the organization's military and terrorist activities, its social activities, and its organizational expenses for its various activities. Iran directly finances Hezbollah's activities via two separate channels:

1. Governmental offices – The funds are transferred to Hezbollah by the Revolutionary Guards (the Quds Force) and the Foreign Ministry (via its embassy in Syria).

2. Semi-governmental bodies – Following the 1979 revolution, Iran established charitable funds that were subordinate to the Iranian leader. These funds have branches in Lebanon, which as part of the export of the Islamic revolution policies, grant widespread financial and social aid to Hezbollah and the Shiite population identified with it.

In addition to the Iranian aid, over the years, Hezbollah has strived to establish additional financial sources all over the world as follows:

1. Fundraising in Lebanon and worldwide: Hezbollah raises millions of dollars a year in Lebanon and around the world (particularly among the Shiite Muslim communities). The money in Lebanon is raised through the Assistance to the Islamic Resistance Fund, which belongs to Hezbollah. Worldwide, the fundraisers operate through charitable funds and local Shiite community centers.

2. Legitimate business activities: Alongside commercial companies that belong to Hezbollah or to its charitable organizations, Hezbollah activists are also involved in an array of legitimate business activities, such as the oil trade, real-estate, and small businesses.

3. Criminal activities in Lebanon and worldwide: Hezbollah activists are involved in two main fields – narcotics and counterfeiting. The organization's activists also deal in cigarettes, car theft, credit card fraud, etc’.

4. Receipt of part of the Lebanese government's budget: Hezbollah’s parliamentary faction, government ministers, and representatives in the municipalities are able to obtain Lebanese government funding for financing projects within the Shiite population centers in Lebanon.

03/10/2006 | by Azani, Eitan (Dr.)  

Hearing of the House Committee on International Relations – Subcommittee on International Terrorism and Nonproliferation - September 2006 

Testimony of Dr. Col. (Res.) Eitan Azani

https://www.ict.org.il/Article.aspx?ID=960#gsc.tab=0

Hezbollah has killed more American soldiers than any other terror organization and have used armor piercing devices that could totally destroy Spanish or NATO armored and tank forces should they come into combat in Catalonia –

As the task force investigators intensified their focus on Safieddine, they were contacted out of the blue by AsherDavid AsherVeteran U.S. illicit finance expert sent from Pentagon to Project Cassandra to attack the alleged Hezbollah criminal enterprise., the Defense Department official, who was at Special Operations Command tracking the money used to provide ragtag Iraqi Shiite militias with sophisticated weapons for use against U.S. troops, including the new and lethal IED known as the