Global Climate Change and the Shipping Industry

CONTENTS

Acknowledgments

Credits

Prologue

Part I

Chapter 1 Global Climate Change and the Environment

Chapter 2 The Biosphere and Global Climate Change

Chapter 3 Methane and the Methane Hydrates

Chapter 4 Decarbonizing Planet Earth

Chapter 5 The International Polar Year

Chapter 6 The Debate on Global Warming

Chapter 7 The Environmental Performance Index

Chapter 8 The Energy and World Climate Meeting in Italy

Chapter 9 The Effect of Land, Sea, and Air Transportation on Global Climate

Chapter 10 Global Climate Change and Society’s Concerns

Chapter 11 Industrial Emissions and the Kyoto Protocol

Chapter 12 Global Climate Change and Ethical Considerations

Chapter 13 Today’s Energy Sources

Chapter 14 Fossil Fuels: Crude Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas

Chapter 15 Biofuels

Chapter 16 Commercial Nuclear Energy

Chapter 17 Nuclear Fission and Fusion

Chapter 18 Energy and the Global Environment

Chapter 19 The Hydrogen-Fuelled Economy

Part II

Chapter 20 Global Climate Change and the Shipping

Industry

Chapter 21 Atmospheric Pollution by Commercial Ships

Chapter 22 Towards Establishing a Realistic and Practical Carbon Dioxide Index for Commercial Ships

Chapter 23 Onshore Electrical Power for Commercial Ships

Chapter 24 Propulsion Concepts for Reducing Fuel Consumption

Chapter 25 The Eco-Ship and the Marine Environment

Chapter 26 Abnormal Sea Conditions

Chapter 27 Commercial Ships and Safety at Sea

Chapter 28 A Ship’s Hull Structure and Hull Strength

Chapter 29 The Safedor: A European-Funded Project

Chapter 30 Global Climate Change and the Naval Architect

Chapter 31 Global Climate Change and Ship Classification

Chapter 32 Designing an Energy-Efficient Commercial Ship

Epilogue

About the Author

References

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

My sincere thanks to Professor Masaki Mano of Kinki University in Kure, Japan, for his encouragement and for his efforts to translate the book into Japanese. Also, to Eleni Zaracosta, Julia Hana, and Megan Slocum, for deciphering and typing the enormous amount of handwritten text and for rendering their computer skills to transform the raw material into concise compact disc format.

CREDITS

I have endeavoured to credit all known persons holding the copyright or reproduction rights of the passages quoted and illustrations reproduced in this book. I give my apologies for any omissions.

PROLOGUE

Global warming has been widely accepted as a reality. Dealing with the problem of global climate change means addressing the problems posed by harmful emissions that are created by industry and other human activities, and it means facing the challenge of decarbonizing planet Earth as soon as possible. There is an urgent need to develop both traditional and novel carbon-free energy sources and to make the technologies that are currently available more useful than they are at present.

This book deals with the question of global climate change by considering the various factors influencing climate change and their consequences. In order to minimize carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and protect the environment, technologies for renewable or regenerative energy sources, such as wind, water, and solar energy, should be developed as soon as practicable. In addition, the use of commercial nuclear energy should be expanded. Successful development of these technologies will reduce the world’s dependence on fossil fuels and will conserve our planet’s finite hydrocarbon resources.

The chapters that follow have been prepared to help and encourage young naval architects and ship designers in their efforts to produce an efficient ship that will be safe and environmentally friendly. This book also aims to encourage the development of measures to enhance fuel efficiency in the shipping industry, thus reducing greenhouse gas emissions from engine exhausts.

The debate continues as to whether or not global climate change is a fact or a manufactured hypothesis. Some scientists point out that the global climate never stops changing while others mention that CO2 emissions are the cause of the change. Indisputable interacting factors that affect global climate include

• Planet Earth’s revolution around the sun in an elliptical orbit, combined with the tilt of its axis of rotation

• Variations in solar output

• The level of heat trapping, primarily by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

The view taken by the Royal Astronomical Society in the United Kingdom is that over the eons, the ultimate fate of planet Earth is to become muggier, more uncomfortable, and, finally, uninhabitable by human beings.

In assessing global climate, scientists generally look at several years of data to determine the overall trends. Good climate scientists want to ensure that the highest standards of proof apply to everything they discover. As our understanding of the global climate system has improved and as climate models have become ever more reliable, evidence has begun to show that human activities are affecting global climate inexorably, thereby creating the potential for much greater change in the future. The increase of certainty that change is occurring is reflected in the Fourth Assessment Report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was written and reviewed by hundreds of scientists worldwide. The report mentions that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides, and halocarbons have increased as a result of human activities.

Before 1970, the course of world energy consumption was a simple affair. Economies grew, fuel was available, and price was not a limiting factor. Thus, it can be said that a structural change in the world’s energy supply system is only now beginning. Decisions made today will profoundly influence the world’s future. We stand on the threshold of the end of the fossil fuel age. Use of renewable energy sources is the biggest economic challenge society has ever had to face.

Energy intensity is being reduced by greater efficiency – which is achieved by improvements in technology and work practices – as well as simply by less use of energy. Every effort is being made to reduce energy consumption, as it was the energy problem that brought the maritime industry into the era of high technology, and the technological developments that are now taking place are of great significance. Commercial shipping is entering the era of hydrogen propulsion.

Energy efficiency as a concept is the result of the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979. Now, public energy consciousness is focused on three areas:

• The price of oil (which affects personal wealth)

• The environment (where concerns of atmospheric pollution are increasing)

• Conservation (where energy saving is important)

The world is not running out of energy. As some energy sources are irreversibly consumed, others are developed and used more efficiently. However, global and national energy systems are complex combinations of energy sources, technologies, and users. Continuously changing physical, economic, political, and social forces modify and drive the systems. In the Western world and the industrialized countries of the Pacific Rim, science and technology have been the instruments of social, economic, and political progress, in conjunction with abundant and affordable commercial energy sources. It takes investments in time and brainpower to conquer the scientific and economic obstacles that keep technologies out of the mainstream.

As a result of previous government policies, the United States appears to be lagging behind in the development of environment-friendly, ‘green’ technologies. However, as in the past, American efforts can and will eventually produce the required technologies for fuel-efficient vehicles as well as other low-carbon products and processes acceptable on a worldwide scale.

During the coming decades, the world will take the steps necessary for reshaping the energy supply away from the use of fossil fuels. Restructuring that transition will be the biggest economic challenge our global society has to face. The basic elements for a responsible energy policy are not complicated. The hindrance lies with the politics and policy makers involved in planning and executing a sensible energy policy. Research and development are key elements in achieving the technological innovations needed to respond to society’s challenges. Today, while the pace of change might seem glacial, the global climate situation is becoming serious. The need to improve the situation is dire.

All current indications are that the fossil fuel–fed industrial era is ending. Low-carbon technologies and the ‘husbanding’ of planet Earth’s resources are now seriously being attempted by countries like Japan, where technologies such as hybrid cars and renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and ocean-movement power are being developed quickly. Additionally, the possible development of technologies to exploit the enormous amounts of energy stored in methane hydrates, which result from thawing permafrost, can make a country energy independent.

On the subject of global climate change and safety at sea, the shipping industry will do well to carefully consider the warnings by the IPCC regarding the challenges of changing sea conditions. The effects of global warming on the oceans and the atmosphere have already unleashed a fury of energy, feeding the potential for intense weather disasters at sea and along the coasts. The IPCC has warned that coastal areas in many parts of the world are among the most affected by the destructive power of storms.

It is estimated that a 3- to 4-degree-Celsius rise in sea surface temperature, indicating an overall increase in the sea’s and atmosphere’s energy, could produce more hurricanes and ones with more destructive power than ever seen, with sustained winds up to 350 kilometres per hour.

It is essential for society to understand the ways in which its activities affect global climate change and how, in turn, our lives are affected by that change. In addition, naval architects must take an interest in this global problem, because it affects the safety and performance of the world’s most important component of transportation: shipping. Ensuring the safety and efficiency of commercial ships is a crucial aspect in the effort to combat global climate change.

Andrew G. Spyrou

PART I

CHAPTER 1

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Global climate is universal for all nations on Earth. A problem as complex as global climate change cannot be solved by any single branch of science, especially as it would appear that international institutions have been structured for the world as it was rather than as it is today.

In assessing global climate change, scientists try to find trends over periods of many years. They have concluded that parts of Alaska were 5 to 6 degrees Celsius warmer in the summer of 2008 than in previous years, after studying the various manifestations of global climate change, such as icecap melting and rising sea levels. Scientists call this phenomenon Arctic Amplification; the Arctic is warming faster than predicted, and the rate of warming there is accelerating faster than the rate of warming anywhere else.

An analysis of a stalagmite obtained from north-western China was published in the 7 November 2008 edition of Science magazine. The stalagmite, composed of calcium carbonate leached from dripping water, preserved a record of rainfall in that region of China throughout the years of the stalagmite’s formation. It shows, in part, that the vital rains of the Asian monsoon were once affected by a change in climate, causing disastrous harvests that brought famine to China in the late ninth century and ultimately ending the three-century rule of the Tang Dynasty.

In April 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) put together research from nearly one thousand scientists from seventy-four countries around the world and issued its long-awaited report. The study found that global warming was already affecting the Earth’s ecosystems and was likely to lead to more severe and widespread drought as well as greater coastal and riverine flooding.

Human-induced global climate change is the result of fossil fuel combustion, which damages global atmospheric conditions in ways that affect nearly all ecosystems, and, inevitably, human beings. The urgent question now is: what can be done about global climate change? This is an ethical question, requiring us to make ethical judgements; humanity has to weigh its own prosperity against the chance that global climate change will diminish the well-being of future generations. Today, the consensus on global warming is that refusal by the United States to take the international lead on the ‘green debate’ has been an unfortunate decision.

As the environment becomes increasingly important, global climate change is an issue that raises fundamental questions about the relationships between industry and society and between one generation and the next. Of course, it also raises questions about costs. To some, the costs of taking action could be enormous and could threaten growth. On the other hand, the costs of doing nothing now could be far greater, given the risk of what we may need to do in the future if the evidence supporting global climate change becomes overwhelming.

SCIENCE, SCIENTISTS, AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Science is defined as the systematic study of the nature and behaviour of the material and physical universe based on observations, experiments, and measurements, and the formulation of laws to describe these facts in general terms. Science is therefore about the results of experiments, not about ultimate reality. A scientist is a person who studies or practices any of the sciences or who uses scientific methods. Most scientists support the view that science is a profoundly optimistic pursuit, that the world we live in can be understood by gathering evidence, and that this effort will ultimately be of benefit to society.

The problem is that all scientists – even the most objective ones – inevitably hold social, political, and ideological beliefs that could potentially slant their interpretations of the data on a project. For a layman, it is difficult, if not impossible, to determine whether a scientist’s claim is legitimate or phony. Is the claimant providing an explanation for the observed phenomena, or is he or she merely denying the existing explanations? Especially today, there is shouting from two sides: those who believe global climate change is a human-caused catastrophe and those who think it is a hoax. Many environmental companies, whose purpose is to protect the environment, have portrayed the growing human influence on the climate as an unfolding disaster while others, such as energy companies or those with industrial concerns, have countered that human-driven warming of the environment is either inconsequential, unproven, or a manufactured crisis. At a three-day conference titled ‘The Flight From Science and Reason’, held by the New York Academy of Sciences in June 1995, it was mentioned: ‘although fraud exist[s], it [is] not nearly as common as critics of science contend’.

Science is a celebration of the human spirit. It has revolutionized human life both intellectually and practically. The scientifically inspired Industrial Revolution has brought about the greatest improvement in the human condition since the invention of agriculture in the Neolithic era around 4000 to 2400 BC. Should today’s efforts to go to Mars and beyond be criticized or admired? Only time will tell.

THE DEBATE ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ALLEGED ‘CLIMATEGATE’ SCANDAL

The feeling among sceptics on global climate change is that because the science has not been definitively settled, you cannot issue an authoritative statement on global climate change.

There are allegations that scientists have been ‘massaging’ global climate data – falsifying and concealing information – which undermines academic standards. This alleged scandal has tarnished the credibility of the science, which currently argues that human activity is at the root of global climate change. The affair has been exacerbated by the controversy surrounding the IPCC’s landmark 2007 report, which included comments about the rate of the Himalayan glacier melt.

The United Kingdom’s University of East Anglia decided to reassess the scientific output of the university’s research unit with the assistance of the Royal Academy of Science. A separate panel, chaired by the recently retired vice-chancellor of Glasgow University, Sir Muir Russell, will investigate the university’s Climate Research Unit. It is imperative that confidence is restored in the science behind global climate change.

THE COPENHAGEN CONFERENCE IN DECEMBER 2009

Fifty thousand participants, including world leaders from Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States, attended the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference at Copenhagen in Denmark. The end result of the conference was ‘a statement of good intentions, which binds its signatories to no specific actions’. Without unanimous support for action on climate change, this sentiment has no status within the United Nations system. The result is a clear indication that global cooperation on the topic of climate change is lacking.

An important consideration discussed at this conference was how to monitor and verify compliance with any treaty that came out of the talks. The United States insisted that without stringent verification of China’s actions, they could not consider any deal. This complicated the proceedings, because the Chinese representative stated that they would not accept any outside monitoring to ensure they were indeed making the changes necessary to fulfil their promises to reduce emissions of CO2 and other pollutants. Chinese authorities maintained that their laws would guarantee compliance as ‘a matter of principle’.

In view of such attitudes by China, the United States is unlikely to approve a tough new domestic climate change regime going forward. The feeling in the United States is that if China or any other country wanted to be a full partner in global climate change efforts, then that country would have to commit to transparency and review of their emissions-reducing efforts.

As the dispute between China and the United States was taking place, a group of poor nations threw the conference off track with a public protest. They complained that the developed countries were doing too little to curb their own emissions, at the same time consigning the poor countries to perpetual poverty. Responsible representatives at the conference acknowledged that in any complicated negotiations such as these, things never go smoothly. The Copenhagen Conference was no exception; it was considered one of the biggest and most complicated conferences in history.

Financial support from developed countries to developing countries has long been regarded as one of the elements that were essential for a deal to be brokered at the Copenhagen Conference. The aim of the conference was to limit global warming to an increase of no more than 2 degrees Celsius above so-called pre-industrial levels. While that goal is in line with scientific advice, some nations lobbied for an agreement that would limit global temperature increases to no more than 1 degree Celsius.

The conference’s president, Connie Hedegaard of Denmark, characterized the behaviour of some of the delegates at this conference as ‘inappropriate’. When optimists looked ahead to this conference, they envisioned a grand bargain between developed and developing nations. However, the behaviour of some delegates was not conducive to achieving the best and most durable deal. Participants knew it would be extremely difficult to reach accord, because China, India, Brazil, and South Africa insisted on deep cuts from developed countries, but they offered few concessions of their own.

Considering that world population continues to rise by 79 million each year, the world population is estimated to become 9.2 billion by 2050 (US Census Bureau, www.census.gov). Technological advances in resource saving will hopefully prevent shortages in food, water, and energy and allow the world’s entire population to enjoy a reasonable and good life. But to ensure that shortages do not occur, politicians must recognize the importance of a sustainable growth strategy in alternative sources of energy.

OPTIMISM AMONG GLOBAL CLIMATE EXPERTS

Global warming is today the subject of intense debate, and while the evidence for climate change is overwhelming, there are sceptics who challenge the view that global warming is caused by human activity, and they have termed the debate pseudoscientific propaganda. They point out that there is the tendency today towards political polarization within the scientific community.

There seems to be optimism among many climate experts because they have seen an explosion of awareness regarding climate change among the public the world over. This is considered a move in the right direction. The feeling is that more and more people are beginning to understand the urgency of the situation, and some action is being taken. This is a relief, because new technology is needed – as well as a great deal of creativity and imagination – to tackle the problem at hand. Mankind has always responded to great challenges with ingenuity and optimism, and the present generation should be no exception.

FOOD PRODUCTION AND WORLD POPULATION

According to the US Department of Agriculture, world population is currently approaching 7 billion. In 2010, the most populous countries are China, with 1.33 billion residents; India, 1.17 billion; and the United States, 380 million.

Some experts feel that the growing population may be a problem. They wonder whether food shortages could bring down our civilization, as there is a limit to the population of humans planet Earth can support. Sooner or later, that limit will be reached, and the natural world will step in to make a major correction through famine, disease, and the resulting conflicts.

Quoting a United Nations report, animal grain yields are up 40 per cent during the past fifty years. In the United States, crop yields average about ten tons per hectare as a result of mechanization, fertilizers, pesticides, as well as genetically modified seeds and improved irrigation methods. Against that, the comparable figure for all of Asia and Latin America is only approximately three tons per hectare. This leaves enormous potential for additional increases in global agricultural output. It would appear that it is a question of how – and who – will develop the vast potential of food production worldwide.

CHANGE IN GLOBAL CLIMATE

Carbon dioxide and other gases, such as methane, trap solar energy and prevent planet Earth from becoming an ice ball. Over millions of years, concentrations of these gases have been far higher than levels during mankind’s short existence.

Geologists have the tools and ability to see into the distant past and discern the slow movements of land masses on planet Earth. Recently, geologists in the United States have predicted what planet Earth will look like 250 million years from now. In 50 million years, Africa will have drifted to the north, joining the European continent by fusing of the two landmasses, eliminating the Mediterranean Sea. They also point out that 75 million years from now, Australia will have moved north to join Indonesia and Malaysia. In 200 million years, Newfoundland will have joined Africa, and by 250 million years from now, all the continents will have merged into a new supercontinent. The new name that scientists have given this