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    The Bull Run: The Thirty-Year Money Game Between Bulls and Bears
    The Bull Run: The Thirty-Year Money Game Between Bulls and Bears
    The Bull Run: The Thirty-Year Money Game Between Bulls and Bears
    Ebook157 pages1 hour

    The Bull Run: The Thirty-Year Money Game Between Bulls and Bears

    By Tholoor M. Thomas

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    About this ebook

    The global financial market has undergone tremendous growth during the thirty years from 1980 to 2009. This period can be described as one of the most memorable in the history of financial markets. The growth of leading economies in combination with the unparalleled bounce in the emerging economies pushed global financial markets to new dimensions during this period. This development provided us with new investment products that changed the landscape of traditional investment methodology. However, the achievement has not been an easy one. During this span of time, we witnessed several political, economic, and technological developments that changed the course of financial history. I convey my understanding of those developments in the context of my own vast experience in the global financial market. This book will be a good reference guide for students of finance and professionals (mainly due to an array of market data and a summary of lessons learnt from various market events). Finally, I bring together reasonable market scenarios that will likely manifest in the near term.
    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherAuthorHouse UK
    Release dateJul 1, 2013
    ISBN9781481797474
    The Bull Run: The Thirty-Year Money Game Between Bulls and Bears
    Author

    Tholoor M. Thomas

    Tholoor M. Thomas is an experienced investment professional with over forty years of global investment management experience in all major asset classes and foreign exchange. He served Arab Insurance Group (Arig) in the Kingdom of Bahrain in its investments and asset management department for almost thirty years. As director of investments and asset management, Thomas had hands-on experience in all facets of investments, including policy formulation, strategy planning, and portfolio management of conventional and Islamic assets. He also served Arig as an investment consultant for a brief period during 2012. Prior to joining Arig, he spent six years in the finance department of Arab Shipbuilding and Repair Yard Co. (ASRY), Bahrain, and he committed six years to the international banking division of State Bank of India in Mumbai, India. He is a chartered financial analyst (CFA). In addition, he holds a bachelor of science and a bachelor of law (general). He is a member of the CFA Institute, USA and CFA Society, Bahrain. Thomas has won several industry recognitions, including the Annual Financial Forecast Winner – 2010 (CFA Society, Bahrain) and the currencies forecast winner for Citibank Treasury competition. Thomas is currently the managing director of ValueTree Consultancy W.L.L., a business consultancy firm in the Kingdom of Bahrain

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      Book preview

      The Bull Run - Tholoor M. Thomas

      © 2013 by Tholoor M. Thomas,CFA. All rights reserved.

      No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means without the written permission of the author.

      Published by AuthorHouse 12/22/2015

      ISBN: 978-1-4817-9745-0 (sc)

      ISBN: 978-1-4817-9746-7 (hc)

      ISBN: 978-1-4817-9747-4 (e)

      Any people depicted in stock imagery provided by Thinkstock are models, and such images are being used for illustrative purposes only.

      Certain stock imagery © Thinkstock.

      Because of the dynamic nature of the Internet, any web addresses or links contained in this book may have changed since publication and may no longer be valid. The views expressed in this work are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher, and the publisher hereby disclaims any responsibility for them.

      CONTENTS

      Preface

      Section 1

      A Precursor to the 1980s

      A Precursor to the 1980s

      Section 2

      Financial Markets through the 1980s

      The Bull Raises Its Horns

      Interest-rate Trend

      Equities: The Start of the Secular Bull Market

      Inflation: Double Digit to Single Digit

      Oil Price: A Gradual Decline

      US Dollar: The Historical Correction

      Wall Street Scandals of the 1980s

      Performance of Markets during the 1980s

      Section 3

      Financial Markets through the 1990s

      1990S: The Mother of All Events

      Overview of the Decade

      Economic Performance in the 1990s

      Inflation: The Downward Journey

      Rise and Fall of Oil Prices

      US Dollar in the 1990s

      Interest-rate Trend

      Bond Yields: Investor Friendly

      Stock Markets: Continuing to Perform

      Mexican Financial crisis of 1994

      Asian Financial Crisis of 1997

      Performance of Key Market Indices in the 1990s

      Section 4

      Financial Markets through the 2000s

      The 2000S: The First Decade of the Twenty-First Century

      Overview of the decade

      The Economic Performance

      Inflation: Mixed Trend

      Rising Oil Prices

      The Plunging Dollar

      Interest Rates: Sharp Decline

      Bond Yields: Falling to a Historic Low

      Equities: A Decade of—Winners and Losers

      2008 Financial Crisis: A Closer Look

      Performance of Key Market Benchmarks in the 2000-2009 Period

      Section 5

      Alternative Investments

      Alternative Assets: A Roller Coaster Ride

      Brief Overview of the Asset Class

      Hedge Funds: Do They Really Hedge?

      Overview of Hedge Funds

      Real Estate Investments

      Overview of Real Estate Assets

      Private Equity

      Overview of Private Equity

      Commodities Investments

      Overview of Commodities

      Section 6

      The Islamic Capital Market

      The Islamic Capital Market: An Overview

      Introduction

      Islamic Equity Market

      Islamic Bond Market (Sukuk)

      Prospects for Islamic Capital Markets

      Section 7

      Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs)

      Sovereign Wealth Funds (Swfs): Forceful Investors

      List of Large Sovereign Wealth Funds

      Section 8

      Wrap-up

      Thirty Years Of Financial Markets at a Glance

      Asset Performances of Each Decade

      Key Assets during the 1980-1989 Period

      Key Assets during the 1990-1999 Period

      Key Assets during the 2000-2009 Period

      Performance of Key Indices during the Thirty Years Ending in 2009

      Annualised Rates of Return (Percentage) for Major Indices during the Thirty-Year Period

      Performance of Select Dow Stocks

      Growth of Wealth in Key Assets over the Thirty Years

      Managing—Volatility Risk

      VIX Index

      Federal Reserve Policy during the Thirty Years

      Monetary Policy Indicators: Mixed Performance

      Section 9

      Looking Ahead

      Looking Ahead

      Developments since 2009

      Investment Management after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008

      Likely Scenarios Ahead

      Concluding Remarks

      Glossary

      To my late wife, Molly Thomas and to my children, Jeffy Thomas and Jenny Thomas.

      You have been a great inspiration to me in my financial career.

      PREFACE

      Your decision to choose this book for a fascinating read is much appreciated.

      This book provides you with a walk through the most interesting times in the history of financial markets. It covers the key events that have taken place in the global financial markets during three decades (covering the period from 1980 to 2009). This period can be qualified as a secular bull market. A sincere attempt has been made to discuss the important events that have influenced the global financial markets during this span of time. The performance of key asset classes for each decade-and for the thirty year period-is incorporated in the book. Section 1 provides a glimpse of the 1970s. A discussion of the major events of the 1980s is given in Section 2. Section 3 provides a review of the 1990s and Section 4 discusses the market events of the 2000s. A brief analysis of the pros and cons of the 2007-2008 financial crisis has also been included in that section. Section 5 offers a discussion of alternative investments. The subject of the Islamic capital market is briefly discussed in Section 6. A note on sovereign wealth funds is provided in Section 7. In addition to a wide range of historical data, a discussion of volatility risk and a review of U.S. Federal Reserve policy during the thirty years can be found in Section 8. The likely market scenarios are discussed in Section 9 along with the lessons learnt from the 2008 financial crisis. In general, the importance of timely asset allocation in highly volatile market conditions is emphasised in this book.

      On the currency front, the most important development during the review period was the birth of the euro and the disappearance of eleven European currencies on 1 January 1999. The euro introduced a new dimension to the global foreign exchange market.

      As you will learn, markets have gone through several periods of booms and busts during the three decades reviewed herein. I would qualify this period as one of the golden times in the history of financial markets. Each time markets suffered setbacks, they came back stronger—not only by recovering the losses, but also by rebounding sharply in the periods following such setbacks. Thus, this book presents the story of thirty years of the money game between the bulls and the bears.

      It is interesting to observe that the bulls have won over the bears during this phase of thirty years despite all the market turbulence. Investors in each of the major asset classes reaped rich returns during this time. Several factors, such as the progress in globalisation, the emergence of BRIC economies,

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