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    2019 Minor League Baseball Analyst
    2019 Minor League Baseball Analyst
    2019 Minor League Baseball Analyst
    Ebook244 pages1 hour

    2019 Minor League Baseball Analyst

    By Rob Gordon and Jeremy Deloney

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    About this ebook

    The first book of its kind to fully integrate sabermetrics and scouting, the 2019 Minor League Baseball Analyst provides a distinctive brand of analysis for more than 1,000 minor league baseball players. Features include scouting reports for all players, batter skills ratings, pitch repertoires, performance trends, major league equivalents, and expected major league debuts. A complete sabermetric glossary is also included. This one-of-a-kind reference is ideally suited for baseball analysts and those who play in fantasy leagues with farm systems.
    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherIndependent Publishers Group
    Release dateMar 5, 2019
    ISBN9781641251600
    2019 Minor League Baseball Analyst
    Author

    Rob Gordon

    I live in central New Jersey. I have a B.S., spent over six years in the US military, and have used observations and experience, conversations with others, much reading, and a bit of imagination in developing this story.

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      Book preview

      2019 Minor League Baseball Analyst - Rob Gordon

      Affiliations

      INTRODUCTION

      Juan Soto: An MLBA Timeline

      by Brent Hershey

      Far away, but one to dream on.

      His polished hit tool is the story.

      Still a teenager but the skills to move quickly.

      Such read excerpts from the three years Juan Soto (OF, WAS) appeared in previous versions of the Minor League Baseball Analyst (MLBA). The above quotes are in chronological order—from our 2016, 2017, and 2018 editions of this book.

      As we all know, there will be no 2019 entry. Soto’s emergence as a baseball star—and fantasy baseball building-block—was one of the most improbable and exciting stories of the 2018 MLB season. Let’s take a look back at his brief minor league career in conjunction with the progression of coverage of him in this publication. In doing so, we seek both how to identify similar players, as well as how to employ the MLBA’s scouting reports and metrics into fantasy baseball success.

      Caveats

      Before we get in too deep, there are several caveats to keep in mind.

      Juan Soto’s rise in 2019 was freakish. We will likely not see another situation like his, where a teenage player started the year in Low-A, and progressed through High-A and Double-A before making his MLB debut in May. Sure, it was talent-based (in 152 combined MiLB AB in 2018, he went .362/.462/.757), but injuries in the Washington outfield played a role as well.

      Related, most 9 prospects don’t follow such a path. While this examination references our grading system (more on that below), it is not an attempt to say that all 9s could follow this journey. Rather, here are the tools you can use to evaluate any of the prospects in this book.

      Reminder: Hindsight is 20/20, and no one likes a navel-gazer. We acknowledge the real risk that this essay could come off as a We told you so! piece—after Soto was the just the third teenager in MLB history to hit 20+ HR in his rookie season (among his many other feats). In the vein of transparency, here is the complete list of the other teenage hitting prospects who received the same 8E grade as Soto did in our 2016 book and were Top-15 prospects in their organizations: Trent Clark (OF, MIL), Gilbert Lara (SS, MIL), Ali Sanchez (C, NYM), Jahmai Jones (OF, LAA), Isael Soto (OF, MIA), Isaiah White (OF, MIA), Julio Garcia (SS, LAA), Marcus Wilson OF, ARI), Jalen Miller (SS, SF) Gareth Morgan (OF, SEA) and Ti’quan Forbes (3B, TEX). We’re here to learn a bit why Soto achieved and these others didn’t—not to pat ourselves on the back because one of a dozen did.

      What we’re most interested in is Soto’s quick adjustment to MLB. One of the remaining puzzles in terms of prospects and fantasy baseball is how to identify which players will hit the ground the running (can be counted on for production soon after) and which ones are likely to have an adjustment period of some sort. The fact that Soto epitomizes the hit the ground running end of the continuum—and that he did so as a teenager—is the kernel of what we’d like to explore. Should we have known that Soto’s case would be different—that he would become a fantasy force from the time he set foot on an MLB diamond?

      The question is meant to be rhetorical, but one plausible answer, after looking back at our timeline of Juan Soto’s appearances in the Minor League Baseball Analyst is … perhaps.

      2016 Minor League Baseball Analyst

      Soto debuted in this year’s book, fresh off inking his $1.5M bonus for signing with Washington the previous July. He had not yet played a game in the U.S. when the book went to press.

      Whether or not to include players such as these—just-signed teenagers, without any pro experience—in the MLBA’s playerbox section is an annual conundrum for our authors. On the one hand, there is so much development to still take place, it’s easy to punt the player to the next edition, when there’s conceivably more data (and in-person looks) to work with and ultimately evaluate. In most cases, that will still provide at least 3-4 years in which the player will be covered in future editions.

      On other hand, given the investment that MLB teams make to these players, they are an important part of the team’s future. In addition, we ask authors (who are assigned organizations to cover) to submit their initial list of players to include in the book, and usually suggest they go 30-35 players deep. Many times one can make the argument that someone in Soto’s case is certainly one of that organization’s Top 35 prospects. There are usually a handful of these players who get assigned a player box each year (the best of that class gets covered in the International Prospects article).

      In 2016, given the reports on the uniqueness of his skill set, Soto did get a player box and was ranked the #15 prospect in the Washington system. His entire entry said this:

      Seen as one of the top all-around hitters in the 2015 international draft class due to advanced approach and superior contact skills. Still needs to grow into his power, but has the size and the acumen to adjust. Likely limited to an OF corner spot due to below-average arm and speed. Far away, but one to dream on.

      It was lofty praise, to be sure, but not that different than other Latin teenagers who would play the next year at 17 years old—at this point in their development, many, if not all, of these prospects are ones to dream on.

      We assigned Soto an 8E grade in this edition—again, not that different than other players of his age/experience. If you’re not familiar with our grading system, there’s some more detail later in this column, but a quick reference is that we graded Soto with a ceiling of a solid regular MLB player (8), but with a lot of risk attached in reaching that ceiling (E). Players without much (or any) pro experience routinely get Es; there’s just no substitute for pro experience. To claim to know with any amount of certainty how a prospect will react to the pro game, including facing world-class competition and, likely, some sense of failure, is folly. An 8E was a perfectly justifiable score for someone with Soto’s draft standing, age and experience.

      We also rate each player’s component skills—and had him right at average for both power and batting average in 2016.

      2017 Minor League Baseball Analyst

      After attending extended spring training in the spring of 2016, Soto exploded in his first pro stops that summer. He spent most of his time in rookie ball in the Gulf Coast League, and then a six-game cameo in the short-season New York Penn League. The combined results were, umm, quite good: .368/.420/.553 with 17 walks and just 29 strikeouts in 190 AB. And scouting reports were just as effusive: he could hit just about anything, knew the strike zone, and could make adjustments during his at-bats. And remember, he’s a 17-year-old competing against players sometimes 3-4 years older. Our 2017 snapshot from his player box:

      A top international signee from 2015, Soto raked his way through rookie ball and won the MVP of the GCL. Has strong hands and an impeccable approach for a teenager, using the whole field and barreling up all types of pitches. Power is emerging, but his polished hit tool is the story. Average defense will limit him to an OF corner.

      On that basis, Soto had jumped to #2 on the Nationals list. Though the following only was published online, in our BaseballHQ.com Organization Report that winter, Soto’s Development Path and Fantasy Impact entries fleshed out further the potential impact player we were dealing with:

      Development Path: He’ll report to full-season Hagerstown as an 18-year-old. His advanced hitting acumen, led by excellent strike-zone judgment, hints he could move through the minors quickly if he continues to hit. If not, there’s no reason to rush him.

      Fantasy Impact: Given his age, Soto has a high ceiling on his hitting skills alone. And if a power stroke develops over the course of the next couple of seasons, he could approach superstar potential. Lower risk than most rookie-ball fantasy selections.

      As often happens, the grades we gave in the book adjusted. We bumped Soto up to a 9D in 2017, feeling confident about a hit-tool centered teenager who blew up rookie ball as the type of profile that could develop into a 9; in our mind, an elite player. Given that he still had not faced full-season competition, there was still considerable risk connected to

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