RACES TO WATCH ON THE LEFT (Democrat Primary Challenges & Potential Targets) DKE Commentater Ratings Details Seat

Details My Ratings Sao Magnifico sawolf StephenCLE sacman701 Seat Incumbent Obama 6 Nov 2012 2 Nov 2012 6 Nov 2012 6 Nov 2012 13 Oct 2012 CA-16 Costa (D) 57% SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT Likely Democrat CT-04 Himes (D) 60% SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT Likely Democrat FL-09 OPEN-New 60% SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT Likely Democrat Lean Democrat IA-01 Braley (D) 58% SAFE DEMOCRAT Very Likely Democrat SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT Likely Democrat IA-02 Loebsack (D) 57% SAFE DEMOCRAT Likely Democrat Likely Democrat Likely Democrat Likely Democrat ME-02 Michaud (D) 55% SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT MN-01 Walz (D) 51% SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT Likely Democrat MN-07 Peterson (D) 47% SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT NM-01 OPEN (Heinrich) 60% SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT Likely Democrat NY-04 McCarthy (D) 55% SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT NY-17 Lowey 58% SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT Likely Democrat WA-06 OPEN (Dicks) 57% SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT Likely Democrat WA-10 OPEN-New 57% SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT WV-03 Rahill (D) 42% SAFE DEMOCRAT Very Likely Democrat SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT Likely Democrat Races (May Become Competitive) DKE Commentater Ratings Sao Magnifico sawolf StephenCLE 2 Nov 2012 6 Nov 2012 6 Nov 2012
Likely Democrat Very Likely Democrat SAFE DEMOCRAT Very Likely Democrat Very Likely Democrat Very Likely Democrat
SAFE DEMOCRAT

JNCCA 18 April 2012

##

DJ

Lean Democrat

Lean Democrat

Lean Democrat

## ###

Seat AZ-02 CA-3 CA-47 C0-07 FL-22 FL-26 IL-08 KY-06 MD-06 NY-25 WA-01

Details Seat Details My Ratings Incumbent Obama 6 Nov 2012 OPEN (Giffords) 49% Likely Democrat Garamendi (D) 55% Likely Democrat OPEN (Richardson) 58% Likely Democrat Perlmutter (D) 57% Likely Democrat OPEN (West) 57% Likely Democrat Riviera (R.) 50% Likely Democrat Walsh (R.) 62% Likely Democrat Chandler (D) 45% Likely Democrat Bartlett (R.) 56% Likely Democrat Slaughter (D) 59% Likely Democrat OPEN (Inslee) 56% Likely Democrat

sacman701 13 Oct 2012

JNCCA 18 April 2012

Lean Democrat ### ###

DJ

SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT SAFE DEMOCRAT Likely Democrat SAFE DEMOCRAT Likely Democrat
SAFE DEMOCRAT

Likely Democrat Likely Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Likely Democrat Likely Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Likely Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat

Lean Democrat Toss-Up (Tilt D) Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat ### Toss-Up (Tilt D)

Likely Democrat Very Likely Democrat Very Likely Democrat Likely Democrat

Likely Democrat Likely Democrat Likely Democrat SAFE DEMOCRAT

Seat AZ-01 AZ-09 CA-09 CA-24 CA-26 CA-41 CT-5 IL-10 IL-11 IL-12 IL-17 MI-01 MN-08 NC-07 NH-01 NH-02 NV-04 NY-01 NY-21 NY-24 RI-01

Details Seat Details Incumbent OPEN (Gosar) OPEN-New McNerney (D) Capps (D)
OPEN (Gallegly)

OPEN-New
OPEN (Murphy)

Dold (R.) Biggert (R.)

OPEN (Costello)

Schilling (R.) Benishek (R.) Craavack (R.) McIntyre (D) Guinta (R.) Bass (R.) OPEN-New Bishop (D) Owens (D) Buerkle (R.) Cicilone (D)

My Ratings Obama 6 Nov 2012 48% Lean Democrat 51% Lean Democrat 56% Lean Democrat 56% Lean Democrat 56% Lean Democrat 59% Lean Democrat 56% Lean Democrat 63% Lean Democrat 61% Lean Democrat 55% Lean Democrat 60% Lean Democrat 50% Lean Democrat 53% Lean Democrat 42% Lean Democrat 53% Lean Democrat 56% Lean Democrat 56% Lean Democrat 51% Lean Democrat 52% Lean Democrat 56% Lean Democrat 67% Lean Democrat

Lean Democrat (Competitive) DKE Commentater Ratings Sao Magnifico sawolf StephenCLE 2 Nov 2012 6 Nov 2012 6 Nov 2012
Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Likely Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss-Up (Tilt D) Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Toss-Up Lean Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Toss-Up Toss-Up Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up Toss-Up Lean Democrat Toss-Up (Tilt D) Lean Democrat Toss-Up (Tilt D)

sacman701 13 Oct 2012

Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up (Tilt D) Lean Democrat Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up Toss-Up Lean Democrat

JNCCA 18 April 2012

Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat

DJ

TU-TILT D
Likely Democrat Likely Democrat Likely Democrat Very Likely Democrat Lean Democrat

#### ###

Toss-Up Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up (Tilt D) Lean Republican Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat

##### ###

TU-TILT R
Lean Democrat Lean Democrat

TU-TILT D
Lean Democrat Likely Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Likely Democrat Likely Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Republican

#### ##### #####

Lean Democrat

Lean Democrat Lean Democrat

Lean Democrat

Lean Democrat

Details Seat Details My Ratings Seat Incumbent Obama 6 Nov 2012 CA-07 Lungren (R.) 51% Toss-Up (Tilt D) CA-10 Denham (R.) 50% Toss-Up (Tilt D) CA-36 Bono-Mack (R.) 50% Toss-Up CA-52 Bilbray (R.) 55% Toss-Up CO-03 Tipton (R.) 48% Toss-Up CO-06 Coffman (R.) 54% Toss-Up FL-18 OPEN 51% Toss-Up GA-12 Barrow (D) 44% Toss-Up IA-03 Boswell (D) 52% Toss-Up

Toss-Up Races (Competitive) DKE Commentater Ratings Sao Magnifico sawolf StephenCLE 2 Nov 2012 6 Nov 2012 6 Nov 2012
Lean Democrat Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up (Tilt R) Lean Democrat Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up (Tilt R) Toss-Up Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up (Tilt D) Lean Democrat Toss-Up

sacman701 13 Oct 2012

Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up Toss-Up (Tilt R) Lean Democrat Toss-Up Toss-Up (Tilt D) Lean Democrat Toss-Up Toss-Up

JNCCA 18 April 2012

Toss-Up (Tilt D) Lean Republican

DJ

##### #### ####

TU-TILT D
Lean Democrat Lean Democrat Likely Republican Lean Democrat

Toss-Up (Tilt R) Lean Republican Toss-Up (Tilt R) Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up (Tilt D) Lean Republican

#####

TU-TILT D
Lean Democrat Lean Republican

IL-13 NV-03 NY-18 NY-19 NY-27 OH-06 OH-16 PA-12 TX-23 UT-04

OPEN (Johnson)

Heck (R.) Hayworth (R.) Gibson (R.) Hochul (D) Johnson (R.) Renacci (R.) Critz (D) Canesco (D) Matheson (D)

55% 54% 52% 53% 44% 45% 47% 45% 50% 41%

Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up

TU-TILT D
Likely Republican Likely Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican

Lean Democrat Toss-Up (Tilt R) Toss-Up (Tilt R) Toss-Up (Tilt R) Toss-Up (Tilt R) Toss-Up (Tilt R) Toss-Up (Tilt D) Lean Democrat Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up (Tilt R)

Lean Democrat Lean Republican Toss-Up (Tilt R) Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up Lean Democrat Toss-Up (Tilt D) Likely Republican

Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up (Tilt R) Toss-Up (Tilt R) Toss-Up Toss-Up Lean Democrat Toss-Up Toss-Up (Tilt R)

Lean Republican Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up (Tilt R) Lean Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican Lean Republican Lean Democrat Toss-Up (Tilt R) Toss-Up (Tilt D) ##### ##### ####

TU-TILT D
Likely Democrat

TU-TILT D TU-TILT D
Likely Republican

Seat CA-21 FL-02 FL-10 IA-04 IN-08 MA-06 MT-AL ND-AL NY-11 TN-04 TX-14 WI-07

Details Seat Details Incumbent

OPEN (Cardoza)

Southerland (R.)

Webster (R.) King (R.) Buschon (R.) Tierney (D)

OPEN (Rehberg)

OPEN (Berg) Grimm (R.) DesJarlais (R.) OPEN (Paul) Duffy (R.)

Lean Democrat, Toss-Up and Lean Republican Races (Competitive) DKE Commentater Ratings My Ratings Sao Magnifico sawolf StephenCLE sacman701 Obama 6 Nov 2012 2 Nov 2012 6 Nov 2012 6 Nov 2012 13 Oct 2012 52% Lean Republican Lean Republican Lean Republican Toss-Up Toss-Up (Tilt R) 47% Lean Republican Lean Republican Toss-Up (Tilt R) Toss-Up Toss-Up (Tilt R) 47% Lean Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican Toss-Up Toss-Up (Tilt R) 48% Lean Republican TU-TILT R Lean Republican Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up 48% Lean Republican Lean Republican Lean Republican Toss-Up Toss-Up (Tilt R) 57% Lean Republican Very Likely Republican Toss-Up (Tilt R) Lean Republican Toss-Up (Tilt D) 47% Lean Republican Very Likely Republican Lean Republican Lean Republican Toss-Up (Tilt R) 45% Lean Republican Very Likely Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican Lean Republican 48% Lean Republican Very Likely Republican Likely Republican Likely Republican Toss-Up (Tilt R) 36% Lean Republican TU-TILT D Lean Republican Lean Republican Toss-Up 42% Lean Republican TU-TILT R Lean Republican Toss-Up (Tilt R) Lean Republican 53% Lean Republican TU-TILT D Toss-Up (Tilt R) Toss-Up Toss-Up

JNCCA 18 April 2012

Lean Republican
SAFE REPUBLICAN

DJ

###

Lean Republican Lean Republican Lean Republican Lean Democrat Lean Republican

Toss-Up (Tilt R) Lean Republican Likely Republican Toss-Up (Tilt D)

####

My Ratings Seat Obama 6 Nov 2012 FL-16 48% Likely Republican IN-02 OPEN (Donnelly) 50% Likely Republican MI-03 Amash (R.) 50% Likely Republican MI-11 OPEN (McCotter) 50% Likely Republican MN-02 Kline (D) 50% Likely Republican MN-06 Bachmann (R.) 43% Likely Republican NC-08 Kissell (D) 42% Likely Republican NC-11 OPEN (Schuler) 40% Likely Republican NE-02 Terry (R.) 50% Likely Republican NJ-03 Runyon (R.) 51% Likely Republican OH-07 Gibbs (R.) 47% Likely Republican OK-02 OPEN (Boren) 34% Likely Republican PA-06 Gerlach (R.) 53% Likely Republican PA-08 Fitzpatrick (R.) 53% Likely Republican SD-AL Noem (R.) 45% Likely Republican VA-02 Riggell (R.) 49% Likely Republican WI-08 Ribble (R.) 54% Likely Republican

Details Seat Details Incumbent Buchanon (R.)

Likely Republican Races (May Become Competitive) DKE Commentater Ratings Sao Magnifico sawolf StephenCLE 2 Nov 2012 6 Nov 2012 6 Nov 2012
SAFE REPUBLICAN SAFE REPUBLICAN

sacman701 13 Oct 2012

Toss-Up (Tilt R) Lean Republican Toss-Up

JNCCA 18 April 2012

Toss-Up (Tilt D) Lean Republican Toss-Up (Tilt R)

DJ

Likely Republican Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up (Tilt D) Toss-Up (Tilt R) Lean Republican Lean Republican Lean Republican
SAFE REPUBLICAN

Likely Republican Likely Republican

Lean Republican Likely Republican Toss-Up (Tilt R)

SAFE REPUBLICAN

TU-TILT D
Very Likely Republican Likely Republican Very Likely Republican
SAFE REPUBLICAN

Lean Republican Lean Republican Lean Republican Lean Republican Lean Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican Lean Republican Lean Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican Lean Republican

Likely Republican
SAFE REPUBLICAN SAFE REPUBLICAN

Lean Republican Very Likely Republican Very Likely Republican Very Likely Republican Very Likely Republican Likely Republican Very Likely Republican Very Likely Republican Likely Republican

Likely Republican Likely Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican Likely Republican Likely Republican Likely Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican

Toss-Up (Tilt R) Toss-Up (Tilt R) Likely Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican Lean Republican Lean Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican

Toss-Up (Tilt R) Lean Republican Lean Republican Toss-Up (Tilt R)

Toss-Up (Tilt D)

Lean Republican Lean Republican

RACES TO WATCH ON THE RIGHT (DCCC Emerging Races/Districts, Former Targets & Potential Targets) DKE Commentater Ratings Details Seat Details My Ratings Sao Magnifico sawolf StephenCLE sacman701 JNCCA Seat Incumbent Obama 6 Nov 2012 2 Nov 2012 6 Nov 2012 6 Nov 2012 13 Oct 2012 18 April 2012 AR-01 Crawford (D) 39% SAFE REPUBLICAN SAFE REPUBLICAN SAFE REPUBLICAN Likely Republican Lean Republican AR-04 OPEN (Ross) 37% SAFE REPUBLICAN Very Likely Republican SAFE REPUBLICAN SAFE REPUBLICAN Likely Republican FL-13 Young (R.) 51% SAFE REPUBLICAN Very Likely Republican SAFE REPUBLICAN Lean Republican Lean Republican SAFE REPUBLICAN IN-09 Young (R.) 46% SAFE REPUBLICAN Very Likely Republican Likely Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican MO-04 Hartzler (R.) 42% SAFE REPUBLICAN Very Likely Republican SAFE REPUBLICAN Likely Republican Lean Republican NY-22 Hanna (R.) 49% SAFE REPUBLICAN SAFE REPUBLICAN SAFE REPUBLICAN Likely Republican NY-23 Reed (R.) 50% SAFE REPUBLICAN SAFE REPUBLICAN SAFE REPUBLICAN Lean Republican PA-07 Meehan (R.) 51% SAFE REPUBLICAN Very Likely Republican SAFE REPUBLICAN Likely Republican PA-18 Tim Murphy (R.) 44% SAFE REPUBLICAN SAFE REPUBLICAN SAFE REPUBLICAN SAFE REPUBLICAN VA-05 Hurt (R.) 47% SAFE REPUBLICAN Very Likely Republican SAFE REPUBLICAN Likely Republican Lean Republican WI-01 Ryan (R.) 51% SAFE REPUBLICAN Very Likely Republican SAFE REPUBLICAN Likely Republican

DJ

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