Professional Documents
Culture Documents
TO, BY,
DR.M.PANDURANGa RAJENDRA SINGH
VITHAL PANWAR
ICM R08PGDM031
Maize
Content
1. Introduction
Description
Overview
History
Classification
Climatic reqvairement
2. Growth promotional activity
3. Maize production in world
4. Maize production in India
5. Market influencing factors.
6. Major trading centre of maize.
7. Seasonality of maize.
In India.
In world.
8. Specialty of maize.
9. Market structure of maize.
Indian market.
Spot market of India
Future market of India.
World market
Future market.
Major player.
International price influencing factors.
10. Demand & supply.
11. World scenario.
International consumption.
12. Indian scenario.
13. GMTR of maize.
14. Import & export.
Maize
MAIZE
Family: - Gramineae
Genus: - Zea (Tribe: Maydeae)
Species: - mays spp. Mays
Description
Maize is the native grain crop of the New World where it has been cultivated in a wide
range of environmental conditions from sea-level to over 3000m, from Chile to southern
parts of Canada for more than 5000 years. Maize belongs to a small highly specialised tribe.
It is a large annual with a single stout stem, usually 2-3m high (but can vary from 1-6m),
with approximately 14 nodes. Leaves have long broad lance late blades and are large at 30-
150cm by 5-15cm. The terminal panicle bears only male flowers and is called the tassel; it
can be up to 40cm long. The female inflorescence is ear borne in the axils of middle leaves
approximately half way up the stem, 1-3 per plant. Each ear consists of a short stout axis or
cob. The ear and the grains are sheathed in closely packed leaves which completely enclose
the upper fertile part of the ear and originate at the base of the lower nodes of the cob. The
spike is very dense with a number of vertical rows of very much reduced spikelet‟s.
Pollination is made possible by the very great development of the single style of each ovary
forming a long thread extending up from each flower to the apex of the husk; the numerous
threads emerge as a conspicuous tuft known as the silks. The upper part of each style is
receptive and wind-borne pollen germinate on its surface, the pollen tube then grows down
through the whole length of the thread to reach the ovule. After pollination the silks wither
Maize
and enlargement of the grain proceeds. The husk leaves become dry and papery but remain
around the mature ear.
Overview
Maize is the most important crop in the world after wheat and rice. It has continued to be
the leading crop in terms of production and area of land on which it has been produced
during the last decade. It is as much a significant crop in the American countries like rice
and wheat in Asia. Maize has a wide variety of usage too. It is used as a feed and in the
production of alcoholic beverages and of food sweeteners, starch, oil and proteins. Recently,
it has been discovered that maize or corn can also be used in the production of fuel. United
States of America is a major corn producing country. The states in US like Iowa, Illinois,
Nebraska, Minnesota and Indiana contributes to over 80% of the total production in US.
The production of maize was 614.3 million tons in 2003 and was still rising in the later
years. Consumption of corns is also on an increasing level. It is basically consumed for
three uses – as food, as feed for animals and as raw material for industry. USA and China
are the major maize consuming countries.
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
Mexico
Egypt
Malaysia
European Union
Colombia.
History
Maize has a very long and interesting history behind it. There are many stories and legends
relating to the origin of corn in different cultures. Maize is considered to be a human
invention, as naturally this plant cannot exist. It is believed that the people in Mexico
developed this cereal from a wild grass known as „Teosinte‟ around 7000 years ago. Maize
then got popular and spread in whole of the South America and some parts of North
America. Even before Columbus discovered America, maize had already become a major
constituent in the food of the native people. When he discovered America, maize spread to
the world and got popular everywhere.
Maize
Classification
Maize (Zea mays) is an annual plant which belongs to family Gramineae and Genus Zea. A
Zea may L. has a normal chromosome complement of 10 pairs. It is divided into seven
groups. The classification is based largely on the character of the kernels (Kipps, 1959).
(1) Zea mays indurata or 'Flint corn': The endosperm in this type of maize kernel is soft
and starchy in the centre and completely enclosed by a very hard outer layer. The kernels
are usually rounded but are sometimes short and fiat. Colour may be white or yellow. This
is the type most commonly cultivated in India.
(2) Zea mays indentata or 'Dent corn': In this type of maize kernels have both hard and
soft starches. The hard starch extends on the sides, and the soft starch is in the centre and
extends to the top of the kernels. In the drying and shrinking of the
soft starch, various forms and degrees of indentation result. This is
the most common type of maize grown in USA
(5) Zea mays amylacea or 'Soft corn': It possesses a soft endosperm. Kernels are soft and
of all colours, but white and blue are the most common. They are like flint kernels in shape.
(6) Zea mays tunicata or 'Pod corn': The pod corns are characterized by having each
kernel enclosed within a pod or husk. It is a primitive type of corn and hence of no
importance.
(7) Zea mays Ceratina Kulesh or 'Waxy corn': The endosperm of the
kernel when cut or broken gives a waxy appearance. It produces the starch
similar to tapioca starch for making adhesive for articles.
Climatic requirements
Maize crop is grown in warm weather condition and it is grown
in wide range of climatic conditions. About 85% of the total acreage
under maize is grown during mansoon because of the fact that the crop
stops growing if the night temperature falls below 15.60 C or 600 F.
Maize
Growth promotional activities
To meet the growing demand, per hectare yield of maize is estimated to rise to 2.36 tonnes
as against 1.7 tonnes currently by the end of 2020. Maize does possess tremendous potential
in terms of feed for dairy, poultry and piggery agro-industries. In order to increase the
production and productivity of maize, the government adopted the new approach for area
expansion for maize in view of serious competition from food and cereal crops. The
program envisages transfer of improved technology through demonstration on improved
crop production technology and Integrated Pest Management training programs, seeds
production programs, insecticides, pesticides, weedicides and other inputs, etc.
United states
China
25 countries in the European Union
Brazil
Mexico
Argentina
India
These countries produce about 4/5ths of the world‟s total maize production. The production
of maize is constantly increasing. This is because of the rising demand from the industries
in maize is used as raw material. The area under cultivation for maize is maximum in the
countries United States, China, Brazil, Mexico and India. Continued adverse weather in
Argentina and Brazil results in a cut of 6m. Tons in estimated World 2008/09 production to
782m. Tons, 4m. Short of last season‟s record. The global economic downturn appears to be
affecting feed demand in some countries, while relatively abundant wheat and barley
compete strongly with maize in feed markets. Forecast world maize consumption is 774m.
Tons, 5m. Less than last month. Feed use is put at 469m. tons, 18m. Down from 2007/08,
but industrial consumption (chiefly for ethanol and starch) is a record 188m. tons, 20m.
More than last year. The world stocks forecast is unchanged at 139m. tons, 9m. more than at
the end of 2007/08. Forecast maize trade is 79m. tons, 2m. down from January, as
shipments to Pacific Asia, particularly South Korea, slow on fierce competition from wheat,
barley and other feeds. Due to its small crop, Argentine exports (year to February 2010) are
projected to fall by half; sales by Brazil and the US are likely to accelerate due to the
reduced competition.
Maize
ASIA 143.4 174.8 170.1 149.0 158.9 165.4 167.2 183.6 195.8 198.6
China 104.6 133.2 128.3 106.2 114.3 121.4 115.9 130.3 139.4 142.0
India 10.8 10.7 11.5 12.0 13.2 11.2 15.0 14.2 14.9 14.5
Indonesia 8.8 10.2 9.2 9.7 9.3 9.6 10.9 11.2 12.5 12.1
Iran, Islamic Rep. of 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.7
Korea, D.P.R. 1.0 1.8 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.9
Kyrgystan 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4
Myanmar 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
Nepal 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Pakistan 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.8 3.3 3.3
Philippines 4.3 3.8 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.6 5.4 5.3 6.1
Thailand 3.8 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.4 3.7
Turkey 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.8 3.0 3.7 3.2
Viet Nam 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.8 3.8
AFRICA 41.3 41.0 42.1 44.8 41.0 42.4 45.0 45.0 49.0 46.1
Egypt 5.8 6.3 6.1 6.5 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.7 7.7 6.8
Ethiopia 2.3 2.8 2.7 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.9 3.0
Kenya 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.9
Malawi 1.5 1.8 2.5 2.5 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.3 2.6
Mozambique 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5
Nigeria 5.3 5.9 5.5 4.1 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.4
South Africa 10.1 7.7 8.0 11.4 7.8 10.1 9.7 9.7 11.7 6.6
Tanzania 1.9 2.8 2.5 2.0 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.4
CENTRAL AMERICA 20.4 21.3 20.8 20.8 23.4 22.6 24.2 25.0 23.3 25.5
Mexico 17.7 18.5 17.7 17.6 20.1 19.3 20.7 21.7 19.8 22.0
SOUTH AMERICA 58.2 55.1 51.4 55.8 64.9 57.7 71.6 65.6 64.4 65.3
Argentina 15.5 19.4 13.5 16.8 15.4 14.7 15.0 15.0 20.5 14.5
Brazil 36.2 30.2 32.0 32.3 42.0 35.9 48.3 41.8 35.1 42.1
Chile 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4
Colombia 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3
Peru 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2
Venezuela 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1
NORTH AMERICA 241.0 256.8 248.7 258.7 249.9 236.8 265.9 308.7 291.7 281.2
Canada 7.2 9.0 9.2 6.8 8.4 9.0 9.6 8.8 9.5 8.8
United States of America 233.9 247.9 239.5 251.9 241.5 227.8 256.3 299.9 282.3 272.4
EUROPE 81.3 66.5 72.6 62.8 76.1 75.5 69.5 96.4 85.1 77.0
European Union 1/ 39.4 36.4 37.1 38.3 41.0 40.5 33.7 54.9 50.9 46.4
Romania 12.7 8.6 10.9 4.9 9.1 8.4 9.6 14.7 9.9 8.7
Russian Federation 2.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 0.8 1.6 2.1 3.5 3.2 3.3
Ukraine 5.3 2.3 1.7 3.8 3.5 3.1 6.9 8.9 7.2 6.0
Yugoslavia Fed. Rep. 6.9 5.2 6.1 2.9 5.9 5.6 3.8 6.6 7.1 5.7
OCEANIA 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
WORLD 586.3 616.0 606.3 592.5 614.7 601.0 643.9 725.0 710.0 694.2
Developing countries 252.2 283.4 275.1 257.9 279.1 276.5 296.7 307.7 319.3 327.1
Developed countries 334.2 332.5 331.2 334.5 335.6 324.5 347.2 417.2 390.7 367.1
LIFDCs 2/ 168.0 200.4 196.7 174.1 183.9 189.0 192.6 208.7 222.8 227.3
LDCs 3/ 15.4 17.2 18.5 18.5 18.1 18.3 20.7 20.2 21.5 23.3
NFIDCs 3/ 13.4 13.9 13.9 15.0 16.0 14.9 16.0 17.3 18.8 18.1
In India, maize is cultivated in locations where temperatures range from as low as 10oC
to as high as 45oC and where rainfall ranges from as little as 200 millimetres per year
(mm/yr) to as much as 2,500 mm/yr. Indian maize production has traditionally been
Maize
concentrated in the southern “Corn Belt” states of Karnataka and Andra Pradesh, where
the main maize crop is grown during the summer (kharif) season. In recent years,
introduction of cold-tolerant varieties has led to the emergence of an irrigated winter
(rabi) maize crop in the northern states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The spread of
improved germplasm and crop management practices resulted in a continuous
growth in average maize yields from the 1950s onwards. Rising yields, coupled with
a steady expansion in area, led to growth in maize production of 5.9% and 5.2% per
annum in the 1950s and 1960s, respectively. After slowing down in the 1970s as the area
under cultivation stabilized, growth in maize production, fuelled by continuing
improvements in yield, averaged about 2.6% per annum in the 1980s and 3.2% per
annum in the 1990s. Total maize production exceeded 10 million tons in 1997-
98.Production of corn in India is showing increasing trend consistently except the year of
2002 when due to drought condition production showed a little decline. Major states that
contribute in Maize productions are Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab, Uttar
Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Virtually all of India‟s maize is used domestically for
food (70%), feed (15%) and industrial uses (15%). Direct human consumption of maize
has declined over time, while feed and industrial uses have increased. Rising
household incomes have shifted consumption from maize to other cereals like rice and
wheat. They have also led to an increased consumption of meat, particularly of poultry,
which has increased the demand for maize as feed. Increased industrial demand for maize
comes primarily from the starch industry.
Karnataka
Andhra Pradesh
Bihar
Punjab
Uttar Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Gujarat
Himachal Pradesh
Maize
ALL-INDIA AREA, PRODUCTION AND YIELD OF MAIZE
1 2 3 4 5
Maize
1962-63 4.64 4.61 992 11.5
Maize
1979-80 5.72 5.6 979 24
Maize
1996-97 6.26 10.77 1720
1997-98
%COVER
% OF
AREA PRODUCTI % OF AGE
STATE TOT YIELD
(M. ON TOTAL UNDER
AL (KGS/HE
HECT (M.TONNE PRODUCTI IRRIGATI
ARE CT)
S) S) ON ON
A
(1995-96)
1 2 3 4 5 6 12
ANDHRA
0.4 6.3 1.08 10 2737 34.2
PRADESH
HIMACHAL
0.31 4.9 0.62 5.7 1990 7.5
PRADESH
JAMMU &
0.31 4.9 0.44 4.1 1418 5.9
KASHMIR
KARNATAK
0.56 8.9 1.67 15.4 2984 65.2
A
MADHYA
0.83 13.2 1.1 10.1 1318 1.3
PRADESH
MAHARASH
0.24 3.8 0.3 2.8 1234 16.3
TRA
Maize
PUNJAB 0.17 2.7 0.35 3.2 2095 56.7
UTTAR
1.07 17 1.66 15.3 1543 31.3
PRADESH
WEST
0.04 0.6 0.13 1.2 2998 -
BENGAL
Weather of the area in which it is produced and natural calamities like floods,
droughts etc
Changes in the government policies relating to the minimum support prices
Cheaper prices of the substitute products
Changes in the seasons
Technological changes and improvements
INFLUENCES ON PRICES:-
There are a number of factors which influence the prices of products.
Supply and demand.
Location.
Time of the year.
Information.
Quality.
Maize
Major trading centers of maize
Chicago
Budapest (Hungary)
South Africa
Liaoning (China)
Patna (Bihar)
Chapra (Bihar)
Begusarai (Bihar)
Motihari (Bihar)
Dohad (Gujrat)
Banglore (Karnataka)
Jhabua (Madhya Pradesh)
Udaipur (Rajasthan)
Bahraich (Uttar Pradesh)
Kanpur (Uttar Pradesh)
Kenya
Sowing
Harvesting
Maize
World seasonality
Speciality of maize
Given the importance of the United States, not only as the world‟s largest
producer and exporter of maize but, equally significant, as the largest and most
advanced consumer of maize, it is useful to provide an overview of how maize
is used in that country. Tables illustrate the amount of products that can
potentially be derived from one 1 tonne of maize.
Maize
Much Meat Can One Tonne Of Maize Produce?
Maize Input Potential Production of Meat
100 kg Beef
250 kg Pork
1 tonne of Maize 333 kg Chicken
500 kg Catfish
Market structure
Maize as a crop needs a vast variety of environments for production. India as big and an
agriculture-oriented country provide all the basic requirements for it. India produces around
10 million ton of maize. Karnataka is the leading producer of maize in India as it falls under
the corn belt of India and produces around 15% of India‟s total produce. In India, the area
on which maize is cultivated is 7 million hectares in 2004. India consumes almost all the
maize that it produces. About 50% of the total Indian produce is consumed as poultry feed
and about 8% is consumed by the starch industry. Indian maize exports fluctuates around 5
lakh tons annually. Mostly the south-western countries import maize from India.
In another words, India can be considered as maize importing country. Government fixes
the quantity of maize to be imported each year and the imports are to be done on 15%.
Spot market:-
The improved crop prospect due to weeks of benign weather pressured the domestic
maize cash market prices despite higher closing in CBOT.
A subdued trading activity was witnessed in the major trading centres due to
incessant rainfall over the major trading centres that created logistic problems.
Prices continued to lose in Davangare and Nizamabad, the two major trading centres
after surging to highest level early in this month on tight physical supply.
Feed industries are keenly watching the crop prospects while starch makers are
buying maize at lower price level. Experts estimate a similar crop as that of the last
year.
Acreage gap compared to last year has been minimized due to weeks of rainfall that
speeded up the sowing and crop is progressing well.
In Punjab, new maize is selling at Rs.700-800 on lack of substantial buyers and
higher moisture in the grain than the normal. Maize is likely to trade range bound
with a steady bias.
Maize
Future market (MCX & NCDEX):-
Maize
March contract 16th September of the earlier year to 15th March of the
contract year
April Contract 16th October of the earlier year to 15th April of the
contract year
May contract 16th November of the earlier year to 15th May of the
contract year
June Contract 16th December of the earlier year to 15th June of the
contract year
Trading period Mondays through Saturdays
Trading session Monday through Friday 10.00 am to 5.00 pm
Saturday 10.00 am to 2.00 pm
Trading
Trading unit 10 MT
Quotation/Base Value Rs/100 kg. Ex – Nizamabad (inclusive of market cess
and other levies, if any)
Maximum order size 2000 MT
Tick size (minimum price 50 paise
movement)
Daily price limits The base price limit will be 3%. Whenever the base
daily price limit is breached, the relaxation will be
allowed up to the 4% with a cooling off period of 15
minutes
Initial margin 5%
Special Margin In case of additional volatility, a special margin as
deemed fit, will be imposed immediately on both buy
and sale side in respect of all outstanding position,
which will remain in force for next 2 days, after
which the special margin will be relaxed.
Maize
For a member collectively for all clients: 6000 MT or
15% of the market-wide open position, whichever is
higher
Delivery
Delivery unit 10 MT with tolerance limit of 2%
Delivery centre(s) MCX approved warehouse at Nizamabad and Karim
Nagar. Both centres will be at par without any
discount or premium, whether it is delivered at
Nizamabad or Karim Nagar. It will be seller‟s option to
deliver at Nizamabad or Karim Nagar, which is
Binding on the buyer.
Quality specification/ Dried and matured grains of Maize confirming to the
Deliverable grades following specification:
Moisture
Basis 12 %
Acceptable between 12 – 14 % With rebate 1 : 1
Rejected Above 14 %
Foreign matters and other food
grains
Basis 2%
Acceptable between 2%–3% With rebate 1: 1
Rejected Above 3 %
Damaged grains
Basis 1.5 %
Rejected Above 1.5 %
Slightly damaged, discoloured
and touched grains
Basis 2.5 %
Acceptable between 2.5 % - 4.5 % With rebate 1 : 1
Rejected Above 4.5 %
Shrivelled and immature grains
Basis 2 % maximum
Acceptable between 2%-3% With rebate 1 : 1
Rejected Above 3 %
Weevil led grains
Basis 1%
Acceptable between 1%-2% With rebate 1 : 1
Rejected Above 2 %
Maize
Packaging Packed in jute bags (old) containing approx 50 Kg
per bag. Delivery will be affected on gross weight
basis, which implies that weighing of Maize will be
done on inclusive of bags basis and no additional
payment will be given for the cost of bag.
Method of testing The definition of above refractions and method of
analysis to be followed will be as per BIS “ Method of
analysis for food grains Nose Is : 4333(Part I)
1967 and IS: 4333 ( Part II) 1967 and Terminology
For food grains IS: 2813 – 1995 as amended from
time to time.
The method of sampling to be followed will be as
per BIS “ Method of sampling of cereal and pulses”
No IS: 14818
Within – 2000.
the overall limit allowed for foreign matters,
the poisonous
The small sizedseeds shall
maize not exceed
grains, 0.5 %are
if the same of
Delivery Logic which Dhatura
Otherwise
Sellers fullyand Akta seeds
developed, not to
should notexceed 0.025
be treated as
% and 0.2 and
shrivelled % respectively, and further, mineral
immature grains.
matter by weight shall not be more than 0.25 % and
Price analysis at NCDEX spot vs.NCDEX future on 28 march 2009:-
impurities of animal origin shall not be more than
0.10 %.
Future price spot price
exchange).
Rosario future exchange (Argentina).
Dalian commodity exchange (china).
Maize
Future price of maize at CBOT on 21 march 2009
Bunge Group (Argentina) formerly known as Bunge y Born, annually trades some 30
million tonnes of soybeans, wheat, maize and other grains. It is responsible for about a
fifth of world trade in oilseeds and oils, and is a major grains and soybean exporter from
Argentina and Brazil. The group operates one of the world‟s largest flour milling
operations. Bunge is the largest soybean processor in the western hemisphere with
substantial business in Brazil and Argentina (through an alliance with Aceitera General
Deheza S.A.).
Nidera (The Netherlands) is a family firm with its headquarters in the Netherlands. It
has its major trading operations in Latin America and annually trades some 18 million
tonnes of soybeans, wheat, maize, rice and other grains.
Maize
Noble (Hong-Kong based) is a large, diversified commodity trading company, with,
among other commodities, operations in a range of grains and oilseeds.
Maize
Zimbabwe, and Botswana (by rail). For local farmers, domestic transportation cost is one
important determining factor in prices they collect. Similarly, at the international level, the
cost of transportation between countries can be a determining factor for exporters and
importers alike. As with all field crops, maize is transported via trucks, rail and on barge
(local waterways river transport) inside countries while as much as 70 percent of its
international trade is bulk-handled by mid and large size shipping vessels. A recent study
by the USDA demonstrated that of all grains produced in the United States, maize “has
the highest transportation requirements due to volume” and between 2000 and 2004,
maize movements increased 5 percent, from 230 million tonnes to 242 million tonnes. The
report also points out that while export movements fluctuated during this time, domestic
movements of maize “reached record levels in 3 of the 5 years”. Also, barge is the
dominant transport mode for moving maize to export facilities in the United States,
“primarily because of the proximity of the Corn Belt to the Upper Mississippi River
system. From 2000 to 2004, barge moved about 68 percent of total inland movements of
corn to coastal export locations. Railroads handled about 30 percent of the export corn,
and trucks moved the remaining 2 percent.” On the domestic front, however, “movements
of corn are dominated by trucks, accounting for roughly 67 percent of the traffic from
2000 to 2004. Railroads move about 31 percent of corn within the United States. Barges
handle only small amounts of domestic corn.” On average, ocean freights costs (or
shipping costs excluding insurance and port handling) for maize represent between 25 to
40 percent of the landed cost (paid by importers). Not surprisingly, therefore, recent price
swings in world ocean shipping rates were unsettling for the grain market. China‟s
growing appetite for coal and raw materials have continued to fuel demand for more
vessels, providing support to freight rates across the board. The steep rise and fall of
freight rates are cause for concern for grain exporters and importers since they have little
influence in the management of the shipping sector. In fact, the size of world grain
shipment represents no more than 5 percent of total bulk shipments and for maize this
share is even smaller. The fact that the shipping industry traditionally adjusts slowly to
rising demand has contributed to a continuing supply uncertainty and more volatile rates.
For example, in 2004 in spite of high and rising rates, old fleets were increasingly
destined for supplying scraping in response to even more attractive steel prices at the
time.
Maize
Demand and supply
Demand
Over the next 20 years, global demand for maize is projected to grow at roughly the same
rate as in the recent past. The composition of demand will continue to change, with feed use
of maize increasing more rapidly than food use in both developed and developing countries
. As a result of projected faster growth in feed use, the market for yellow maize will expand
relative to the market for white maize. However, demand for white maize will remain strong
in certain countries and regions, including Mexico, Central America, and Eastern and
Southern Africa, and white maize is likely to command a modest price premium in these
markets. Meanwhile, niche markets are likely to emerge for certain types of specialty maize
(including maize with suitable industrial characteristics and maize with improved nutritional
quality), assuming that appropriate germplasm becomes available and the necessary market
structures develop. Studies conducted in southern Mexico show that the emergence of these
markets requires institutional development and new breeding methodologies to develop
varieties with the right traits (Bellon pers. comm.). These markets could be important for
small-scale farmers, as they may enable them to produce a differentiated product that would
not be in competition with the cheaper maize produced by the largest producers. Demand
for maize will be very concentrated. By 2020, the four largest consumers (China, USA,
Brazil, and sub- Saharan Africa) will account for approximately 70% of world demand.
China will become a major importer because of its rapidly growing livestock industry. Food
consumption of maize will remain concentrated in Eastern and Southern Africa, Mexico,
and the smaller Latin American countries.
Supply
At the global level, supply of maize will keep pace with demand for the foreseeable future,
since most of the major producing countries and regions have considerable capacity to
expand production quickly in response to favourable changes in price incentives. Assuming
no major changes in producer support policies, the USA will remain the world‟s largest
maize producer (297 million tons) in 2020, followed by China (259 million tons), Brazil (54
million tons), Eastern Europe (40 million tons), and the EC151 (39 million tons) (Table
7.2a). Most of the maize produced by these countries will be yellow maize destined for
domestic and international feed markets. Maize production will continue to increase slowly
in developing countries where maize is an important food staple, although production will
continue to experience significant year-to-year variability in some countries and regions,
especially where maize is grown in drought-prone environments (e.g., eastern and southern
Maize
Africa, parts of Central America). Most maize produced for food will continue to be white
maize.
The distribution of global maize production could change if policy reforms succeed in
reducing the level of support afforded to producers in the EU and USA. Brazil and
Argentina, both of which have considerable amounts of untapped crop land, could increase
their importance in the world maize market under such a scenario (assuming additional
investment in transportation infrastructure, e.g., roads and port facilities).2 In particular,
Brazil could become self sufficient or even have a small surplus that could be exported.
Developing countries in which maize is produced mainly for domestic food consumption,
especially those in eastern and southern Africa, would remain largely unaffected by
movements in international maize prices.
World Scenario
Maize originated in Central America and was introduced into Africa by the Portuguese in
the 16th century. In Africa the production and consumption of maize exceeds that of other
cereals such as wheat or sorghum. Today maize has become Africa's most important staple
food crop and is grown by both large and small-scale farmers. The developing countries
have more area given to maize cultivation than developed countries, but yield in the latter is
about four times higher. Since 1961, yields per ha in the United States, for example, have
increased significantly, while yields in Mexico, Guatemala and Nigeria (selected as
Maize
countries where maize intake by the human population is high, particularly in the first two)
have increased only slightly. While most of the production in developing countries is for
human consumption, in the developed world it is mainly for industrial use and animal feed.
The high yields and production in North and Central America are mainly attributed to the
United States, which out produces countries such as Mexico where maize is the most
important staple cereal grain. With changing rural-to-urban populations and lifestyles in
developing countries, there is a continuous shift to the consumption of wheat, which may
influence maize production. There is a slow increase in its use in industry and as an animal
feed, particularly for poultry and other monogastric animals. A comparison of the available
data for wheat, maize and rice put maize as the second most important cereal grain, after
wheat and before rice. In terms of yield per hectare, however, maize out yields the other
two. The only food crop out yielding maize in tonnes per hectare is potato in their
unprocessed state, though not on an equal moisture basis.
Maize has three possible uses: as food, as feed for livestock and as raw material for
industry. As a food, the whole grain, either mature or immature, may be used; or the maize
may be processed by dry milling techniques to give a relatively large number of
intermediary products, such as maize grits of different particle size, maize meal, maize flour
and flaking grits. These materials in turn have a great number of applications in a large
variety of foods. Maize grown in subsistence agriculture continues to be used as a basic
food crop. In developed countries more than 60 percent of the production is used in
compounded feeds for poultry, pigs and ruminant animals. In recent years, even in
developing countries in which maize is a staple food, more of it has been used as an animal
feed ingredient. "High moisture" maize has been paid much attention recently as an animal
feed because of its lower cost and its capacity to improve efficiency in feed conversion. The
by-products of dry milling include the germ and the seed-coat. The former is used as a
source of edible oil of high quality. The seed-coat or pericarp is used mainly as a feed,
although in recent years interest has developed in it as a source of dietary fibre (Earll et al.,
1988; Burge and Duensing, 1989). Wet milling is a process applicable mainly in the
industrial use of maize, although the alkaline cooking process used in manufacturing
tortillas (the thin, flat bread of Mexico and other Central American countries) is also a wet
milling operation that removes only the pericarp (Bressani, 1990). Wet milling yields maize
starch and by-products such as maize gluten, used as a feed ingredient. The maize germ
processed to produce oil gives as a by-product maize germ meal, used as an animal
feedstuff. Some attempts have been made to use these by-products for humans in food
mixes and formulations.
Although the technology has been available for a long time, the increase in fuel oil prices
has resulted in much research on the fermentation of maize to produce alcohol, popular in
some states of North America. Fermentation also provides some alcoholic beverages.
Maize
Finally, maize plant residues also have important uses, including animal feeds as well as a
number of chemicals produced from the cobs, such as furfural and xylose. These residues
are also important as soil conditioners.
The bulk of the decline reflects smaller crops harvested earlier in the year in Argentina
and South Africa and a reduced harvest, now almost completed, in the United States. The
main factor for the smaller crops in all cases has been reduced incentive to plant maize
because of too high production costs relative to expected returns, but adverse hot and dry
weather also had an impact on yields in some parts. In contrast, aggregate (main and
secondary season) maize output increased in Brazil, reflecting a larger area planted to the
main season crop harvested earlier in 2006. A larger crop has also been gathered in
Central America, with output in Mexico recovering from a below-average level in 2005.
Also in Asia, maize output is estimated up in China, the Philippines and Thailand. The
first of the 2007 maize crops are now being sown in the southern hemisphere. In South
America, after a slow start to the season due to limited soil moisture in some growing
areas, planting is now well underway and early indications point to a slight increase in the
aggregate area. In South Africa, conditions are favourable and a survey of farmers‟
planting intentions point to a sharp increase in the area sown
Maize
where conditions are favourable for maize production. Overall, irrigated area increased from
16% in 1970 to 23% of total area under maize in 1997. At the same time, maize
cultivation moved into marginal areas with relatively low production potential, as farmers
reserved more productive areas for more p r o f i t a b l e crops like wheat, paddy and
sugarcane.
India negligibly imports maize however in recent years there is sign of export. This is due
to the fact of increase in production coupled with meeting domestic requirement.
600
500
Thousands tons
400
300
200
100
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
Maize
Generalised marchantillistic trade relationship
Maize
MAIZE IMPORTS (million tonnes)
2005/06 2006/07
1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05
estimate forecast
ASIA 38.8 37.2 42.3 42.5 42.3 43.6 44.3 42.1 42.0 42.5
China 4.8 4.5 5.4 4.6 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.5 5.0 5.6
Taiwan Province 4.7 4.3 5.3 4.6 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.8 5.0
Indonesia 0.9 0.1 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.5 1.0
Iran, Islamic Rep. of 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.5 2.4 2.2 2.0
Israel 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0
Japan 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.8 17.0 16.5 16.6 16.4
Jordan 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Korea, Rep. of 7.8 7.1 8.5 8.6 8.4 8.9 9.4 8.3 9.1 9.0
Malaysia 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4
Saudi Arabia 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5
Syria 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.2
Turkey 0.5 0.8 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1
AFRICA 8.4 9.3 10.0 11.4 12.2 13.1 12.2 12.9 13.2 12.7
Algeria 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.1
Egypt 3.1 3.6 3.8 4.9 5.4 5.3 4.1 4.9 4.4 5.0
Ethiopia 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Kenya 1.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.7
Morocco 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3
South Africa 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.6
Tunisia 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7
Zimbabwe 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.2 0.3
CENTRAL AMERICA 6.2 8.9 8.3 9.3 9.7 8.5 9.4 10.1 10.5 10.7
Costa Rica 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Dominican Rep. 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1
Guatemala 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7
Mexico 3.8 6.0 4.8 5.8 6.0 4.9 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.2
SOUTH AMERICA 5.2 7.1 7.2 6.7 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.3 6.6 6.7
Brazil 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.5
Chile 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.2
Colombia 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.8 3.0
Ecuador 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4
Peru 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.3
Venezuela 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3
NORTH AMERICA 1.5 1.3 1.4 2.7 3.8 4.6 2.8 2.8 2.0 3.4
Canada 1.3 0.8 1.0 2.6 3.5 4.2 2.4 2.6 1.7 3.2
United States of America 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
EUROPE 3.3 4.2 4.2 4.8 4.2 4.1 8.0 3.0 4.0 3.9
Belarus 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
European Union 1/ 1.9 2.9 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.9 5.6 2.0 2.9 2.8
Russian Federation 0.2 0.3 1.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3
OCEANIA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
WORLD 63.5 68.1 73.4 77.4 77.2 79.3 82.4 76.3 78.3 80.0
Developing countries 41.7 45.4 50.3 52.3 51.3 52.1 52.7 52.7 54.0 54.5
Developed countries 21.8 22.7 23.1 25.2 25.9 27.2 29.7 23.6 24.3 25.5
LIFDCs 2/ 14.5 13.9 16.8 17.9 18.4 19.4 18.2 19.5 18.5 18.9
LDCs 3/ 1.7 1.9 2.2 1.7 2.0 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.8
NFIDCs 3/ 9.2 10.3 10.6 12.2 11.9 11.3 11.0 12.5 11.8 12.5
Maize
MAIZE EXPORTS (million tonnes)
2005/06 2006/07
1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05
estimate forecast
ASIA 7.7 4.1 7.9 10.9 7.2 15.9 13.3 6.9 7.2 4.3
China 7.0 3.3 7.2 9.8 6.3 14.9 11.3 5.6 5.9 3.0
India 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3
Myanmar 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3
Thailand 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2
AFRICA 1.8 1.9 1.2 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.5 2.7
Mozambique 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
South Africa 1.2 1.2 0.2 1.8 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.9 0.9
Tanzania 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4
Uganda 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4
CENTRAL AMERICA 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
SOUTH AMERICA 12.2 10.4 8.3 14.6 14.5 14.5 16.3 15.8 13.0 13.1
Argentina 11.8 10.0 7.9 11.8 9.2 11.7 9.9 12.4 11.3 10.0
Brazil 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 5.0 2.4 5.8 2.7 1.2 2.6
Paraguay 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5
NORTH AMERICA 36.7 48.3 50.4 47.6 50.1 42.6 47.3 47.2 51.5 56.2
Canada 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2
United States of America 36.7 47.7 50.1 47.5 49.9 42.3 47.0 47.0 51.2 56.0
EUROPE 3.8 3.4 3.1 1.4 3.7 3.4 2.5 5.0 4.1 3.6
Bulgaria 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.3
European Union 1/ 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2
Romania 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.5 0.5 0.6
Ukraine 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.1 2.2 2.6 1.8
Yugoslavia Fed. Rep. 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
OCEANIA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
WORLD 62.5 68.4 71.0 77.4 77.7 78.8 81.9 77.8 79.5 80.0
Developing countries 20.7 15.5 17.2 26.5 22.5 31.7 31.1 24.6 22.0 19.3
Developed countries 41.8 53.0 53.8 50.9 55.2 47.1 50.8 53.2 57.5 60.7
LIFDCs 2/ 8.1 4.4 8.6 10.9 7.2 16.1 13.6 8.0 8.1 5.4
LDCs 3/ 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.9
NFIDCs 3/ 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Maize