-

2009







}{32:

....
......
..

 / .

. .
.

/ .

/ .
.

/ .

/ .
.

 / .

/ .

/ .

. .



-:

) " "(

78

.
)
( .

) (
.
.

-:

) ( .

(.

: .....................
: ..........................
..............................................................:
: ............
: ............................
...................................................... :
: .............
............................................................... :
: ......................
: ..................
..................................................... :
: ..........................................
.............................................................. :
: ...................................
: .....................................
.......................................................:
: ........................
.......................................................... :
......................................................:
.....................................................:
.......................................................... :

26 -1
71 -27
28
29
62
70
98 -71
72
73
83
98
131 -99
100
101
111
131
139 -132
151 -140
141
144

)(1-1

22

)(1-4

104

)(2-4

105

)(3-4

110

)(4-4

)(Jones

112

)(5-4

113

)(6-4

114

)(7-4

115

)(8-4

116

)(9-4

116

)(10-4

117

)(11-4

117

)(12-4

T-test

118

)(13-4

chi Square

118

)(14-4

119

)(15-4

119

)(16-4

120

)(17-4

120

)(18-4

121

)(19-4

121

(
)(20-4

123

)(21-4

123

)(22-4

124

)(23-4

125

)(24-4

125

)(25-4

126

)(26-4

126

)(27-4

127

)(28-4

127

(
)(29-4

129

)(30-4

129

)(31-4

130

Stoke holders

Reputation

Advertising

Implication

First in First out

FIFO

Last in First out

LIFO

Income Smoothing

Out of Date

Straight line Method

Declining Balance Method

R.D

Research and Development costs

Full Cost Method

Successful Efforts

Regulation

Job Security

Positive Theory

Current Pre Managed Earnings

Discretionary Accruals
Share holders

Big Bath

Earning management

Net Operating

Expected Earning

Smoothing Devices

Deterministic Models

Random Walk Models

Artificial Smoothing

Ordinary Items

Extraordinary Items

Accounting Polices Changes

Accounting Estimates Changes

Accounting Entity Changes

Full Disclosure

Revenue Recognition

Expense Recognition

Revenue Expenditure

Capital Expenditure

Matching Concept

Accrual basis

Statement of Cash flow approach

Extreme Financial Performance
E.Q

Earnings Quality

Explicit and Implicit

Accounting Choices

The Positive Theory of Agency

Self interest

Economic Rationality

Conflict of interests

Contracting Problems

The Principal Agent Model

Agency Problems

Cooperative behavior

Information Asymmetry

Moral Hazard
Adverse Selection
Observability

Monitoring Problems

Incentives Problem

Stock Option
Bonus

Monitoring Costs

Bonding Costs

Transaction Costs

Residual Loss

Bankruptcy Costs

Private Information

Inside Information

Opportunistic behavior

Management Compensation

Debt Covenant

Political Cost

Concentration

Positive Return

Product durability

Revenue Volidity

:

:
)(Kirschenheiter and Melumad,2005
.
.

.
.



.


) .(2002
) (Stakeholders

-:
Reputation

Implicit claims .
Advertising

.
)(Bowen etal., 1995



.

:
.

.

.



) .(2002

.

:
:
" " Fifo
" " Lifo



.


. ) ( Bowen etal., 1995


.%16.3


.







.

.

Postpone




) .(1997


:
- .
- ) (
.
- Income-Smoothing
.
- Out
Of Date
.

:
- .
- .
-

.


) .(2002

:



:
Straight- Line Method
Declining Balance Method
-

........


)
(Bowen etal., 1995 )-1981
(1993

%68.7
.%25.1




) .(2002

and

Research

Development Costs


:
Full Cost Method
Successful Efforts







.

.


) .(2002
) (Fama,1980



.

:


.

.







.
)(Christensen and Frimor, 2002 & Bernard and Skinner, 1996




)(Regulation
) .(Dye, 1988
) (Truman, and Titman, 1988

.

.
.
.

.



) .(1990






.





) (
) ). ( Income Smoothing(1999

:
-





) .(1990

) .
(1996



) (Cheng, and Coulomb, 1996& Key
) ( ,1997 &Gaver and Austin , 1995 & Zarowin, 2002




): (Truman, and Titman, 1988
.1

) ( .
.2


.

)(Tucker and Zarowin,2006
.

:

Improve earnings informative (Kirchenheiter and
) Melumad,2005
(Hunt and
) Shevlin,2000



) (Subramanyan,1996
.

.

( Zarowin,2002) .

)
( ) (Bernard and Skinner,1996
:
.1 .
.2 .
.3 .
.4 .


.
) (Tuker and Zarowin,2006





.
(Fudenberg
) and Tirole, 1995

" "Job Security


) .(Lambert, 1984




(Income-Increasing

) discretionary accruals



) .(Income-decreasing discretionary accrual

.

) &Lev,1983
(Baginski,etal.,1999


) (Murphy, and Zimmerman, 1993



" " .
)( Ahmed etal.,2005

) - " " (



" "
.


) "
"(

.

)
" "(
.

.1
.
.2

.

"
" .

:
.1 )
( .
.2


.

) " " ()
" " (
) (Jones, 1991

:
.

.

.

:
: .
: .
: .
: .
:

) (Defond and Park,1997


.

) ( .


(Current pre-managed
) earnings "
(1)" Jones,1991 (Reported
1 - TACit / TAit-1 = 0 + 1(1/TAit-1) + 2 [(REVit - RECit)/ TAit-1] +[ 3PPEit/ TAit-1] + it
:

TACt

) earnings .
.
" "Jones, 1991
).(1

(Income-decreasing
) discretionary accruals


) (Income-Increasing discretionary accruals
.
)(Ahmed et al. ,2005,PP.1-43


.



) "
" - (.


)
()
( )
(

:
:
:
:
:

REVit
RECit
PPEit
TAi t-1
it

= ( CAt CLt Casht + STDt Dept ) / At-1

:
:
:
:
:
:

-TACt

CAt
CLt
Casht
STDt
Dept
At-1

)(Jones, 1991
.






.
) ( Elgers et al.,2003

. .
.
(Defond and
) Park,1997
(Defond
) and Park,1997
)(Jones,1991
)
(


)
(
" "Jones,1991
). (1




(Income-Increasing discretionary
) accruals .
)(Kanagaretnan and Lobo ,2003

(Fudenberg and
) .Tirole,1995
)
1 -TACt = Nt - CFOt
:
Nt
CFOt :

"

" ( .
.2000-1987




"
" .








.

)(DeAlbornoz and Alcarria,2003

.1997-1991





Current
) (pre-managed earnings "
"Jones,1991

" "Jones,1991
.

(Income-
) decreasing discretionary accruals


) (Income-Increasing discretionary accruals .



.

)(1-1

) (Defond and Park,1997

) (
.

)
(.

.1
) (Jones, 1991.
.2
" " Earning
"before discretionary accruals
.
.3
.


.
2

)(Ahmed et al ,2005

" .

.1
)(Jones, 1991.
.2
) (.
.3
.

.
)(Elgers et al,2003
3


) (
.

.
.
.1
)(Jones, 1991.
.2
) (.
.3
.


.
4

)(Kanagaretnan et al,2003

.
) .(Fudenberg and Tirole,1995

)

"


" .
.2000-1987

.
" "

"
"


.
. " "1
" " .

.1


.

.
) ( DeAlbornoz and Alcarria,2003

)
(.
.1 (Jones,
).1991

" " Earning
"before discretionary accruals
.
.2
.










.

) (1 )Elgers et al ) (Defond and Park,1997
(.,2003

.
)( Ahmed et al. ,2005

.
) (2 ) (Elgers et al. , 2003
) (Defond and Park, 1997
) (Jones, 1991

) ( .
) (3 ) (De Albornoz and Alcarria,2003

) (Jones, 1991
.
) (Jones,1991 )(Dechow et al.,1995


.
) (4


) (Fudenberg and Tirole, 1995
.

:










.

.

: .
: .

.
.

:







.

:
) (Healy and Wahlen,1999 "

) (Share holders
".
) (1999 "


".

:
-
.
-
.
) (1999

:

.

.



.

.

.

) (2004 :



.
.
.
: :



.
:

.
"


".

:


.

.1

Big Bath

) (Reversal
) . .(2005

.2

Increase Earnings

:

) (Reversals
) (Accruals
.



.

.3

Income Smoothing

.

.


) (Beattie etal., 1994
(Earnings

) management
.

) (Lambert, 1984 "

" . ) (Moses,1987
" " .
) (Truman and Titman,1988
"

" .
) (1993 "

".
) (Fudenberg and Tirole,1995 "

".

:






).(1999


) - (


.


).(1996
) (Net operating




) .(Moses,1987
"


".

:

. :
.1
.

.2
.
.3 )
(


).(1989

:




).(Lambert,1984

:



.

:
:

.1
) (Accruals .
.2




.

:
.
.1
.2

Expected earning
Smoothing Device

:
-1

) (Reference Point


.

Deterministic Models
Random Walk Models
) (Moses,1987

) (
:
:

:
=
)( .
:
.
= +
)( .
) ( .

. .

:

:
=
1-
1-
.
:

:
= +1-
)( .

:

:

= 1 +1- ] _ 1-[ 1-
=1

.

) . (1995
Smoothing Devices
-2
) (
:
) (1/2 ) (
) (Artificial
.
) (2/2
) (

) .(1995
) (3/2 )(Ordinary
). (Wang and Kao,2005) (Extraordinary
) (
.
) (Roychowdhury,2006






.




) (Lo,2008


.

) (Trumam and Titman,1988

) (Wang and Kao,2005
.

:
) (1/2
:
) (1/1/2 Accounting polices
changes

:
-
-
) (2/1/2 Accounting Estimates
Changes
Accounting Entity
) (3/1/2
changes

:
) (1/1/2 Accounting polices
changes


:
-
.
-



) (
) . (2001

.
.
. )
(

(Lilien et al.,1988 ) .
:
: .
: )
(.

:
-

.
.

.
.

:
. .
. .
) . & 1995 . (2000







.

) .(2001

:
-

.
-
.
:
:
.
.





(Moses,1987) .

:
-

.
-

(Moses,1987) .




.
) (2/1/2 Accounting Estimates
Changes


) . (2006

.

.
.

.
Accounting Entity changes
)(3/1/2



.


) (
) .Full Disclosure (2000
) .(2006
- .
- .
- .
- .

:
-



.
-







.
-

.
-





.

) (
.

) (Lilien et al.,1988

.

) (2/2
) Nelson et al.,

(2003
:
) (1/2/2
) (2/2/2

.

:
) (1/2/2 .




:
-


.

-







) ..(2006
-
(Nelson et al.,2003 ) .
- :


) .(2005
- :

.

) .(2005

) (2/2/2

Revenue expenditures
Capital expenditures


Matching Concept
.

.

:
).(2005
- .
- .
- .

:
- .



.

.
)( .

.

.

.

.

-

)
(
) (

) ( ) (
. :
.

.


.
-






.

.
.

.



.

) (3/2

.

"

" .
) " (5
" "

".

) (5

.
.
- ) (.
- )
(.


.



.


.











.






.

" "
) (DechowandSkinner,2000



) (GAAP


.
: " " Software




.



.

:






.



.





.

.
) 2004(25
:

.1



.
) "(5 "
" "14 :
- .
-
.


.



.
-
-
-
-
)" (1 " " "114


.

.2

:



.

) (11 :

- .

.
.
) " (5
" "32

.

.
) (28
36 "

"


"

.3



" "25
)" (1 "


.
" "17 ) " (11 "


.

.4


. :
)" (1 " " "31

.
)" (5
"




.



. :
) (1/4 .
) (2/4 .
) (3/4 .

) (1/4
243 2006



22 )" (1 "
:
.1
.
.2


.
17 ) "(1 "


:

.

.



.

) (2/4





.

) (3/4

- . 28
) (5 :
.

.
- .
39 ) (5


.

:


:

:
Dechow et ).
.(Tan and Jamal,2006) &(al.,1995
:
.
)(Bernard and Skinner, 1996
:
.





.
) Earnings
(Quality






) (Hermanns,2006

) (2008 ) Kirchenheiter and
(Melumad,2005





) (Lo,2008,


) :(2004
-

.
-
.

) (Dechow et al.,1996
%9
.


( Teoh and
). Wong,1998

:
-


(Zarowin,2002 ) .
-



).(Lambert,1984
-




(Truman and
).Titman,1988
-

.
) ( Belski and Brozovsky,2002

)
(Titman,1988

and

Truman

:

.

:

.
:
" "
.

:

= + )
(.

= )
(.

" "
.
:

= ) (

= + ) (

:
Accrual basis


) . (1999

-:
) (Discretionary accruals

.1
.2 ) (Non discretionary accruals


:


) .(2008

) .(2008
:
+
DACti
TACti=NDA
ti

:
TACti t .i
NDA ti t .i
DACti t .i
.

- .Healy, 1985
- . De Angelo, 1986
- . 1991
- . Jones,1991
- Jones . Dechow et al. ,1995

) (Dechow et al. ,1995 :
Balance sheet approach
-
-
approach

Statement of cash flow

:
-
:
TACt = ( CAt CLt Casht + STDt Dept ) / At-1

:
TACt . t
.t
CAt
CL t .t
Casht .t
STDt .t
Dept .t
A
.t
) (Hribar and Collins,2002

) (Presumed Articulation





.

-

).(Dechow et al. ,1995
TACt = Nt - CFOt

.t
Nt
CFOt .

) .(Bartov and Tsui,2001

.

Healy,1985
-
) (Healy ,1985 Mean total accruals

.
T TAt

NDAt

NDAt . t
.
TA
.1,2 ,3.......... T
T
.Event period
t
- De Angelo, 1986
)
( .
NDAt =TACt-1

TACt-1 .T-1
NDAt .T
De Angelo
) ( De Angelo
Random walk model
De Angel
De Angelo
Healy


)(Dechow et al. ,1995

.

- 1991

The industry model

) ( Dechow and Sloan ,1991

) ( .
)NDAt = 1+ 2 median t ( Tat
) : Median t ( Tat .
12
Non
Sample firms





(Dechow and Sloan,1991) .
- Jones,1991
Jones

:
) 2( REVt) + 3 ( PPEt

NDAt = 1 ( 1/ A t-1 ) +

:
REVt t .t-1
PPEt t .t-1

A t-1 .t-1
1, 2, 3
.
TACt = a1 ( 1/ A t-1 ) + a2( REVt) + a3 ( PPEt ) +t

:
TACt t .t-1
.
t
a1, a2 , a3 1, 2 , 3
.

.

). (Dechow et al. ,1995
) (Jones ,1991

.

.
- Jones Dechow et al. ,1995
]RECit)/ TAit-1

:
TACit
REVit
RECit
PPEit
TAit-1
it

)1(1/TAit-1

+ 2 [( REVit3[PPEit / TAit-1] +
it

= TACit / TAit-1

.
.
.
.
.
) (.

:
) (Dechow et al. ,1995
.
-
Type 1 error

.

-
Type 11 error
.
- :
.1 1000 .
.2 1000 Firm- years
Extreme financial

.performance
.3 1000 Firm- years
.Accruals manipulators
.4 32
56 .

:
.1
.2
.3

.4

Well specified
/.

.Economically plausible magnitudes

Specified test levels
. Extreme financial performance
Jones,1991 .

:


.

.
:

.
.
.
.

:
:
.
:
.
.

Jones . Dechow et al. ,1995 .

"


.







.
.
&(Key,1997& ChengandCoulomebe,1996
) Zarwain,2002 Gaver etal,1995 al,1995






.

:

: .
: .

.
) (

).(Baiman,1990




) (

) .
(Fama,1980

:

Explicit and Implicit

Accounting Choices


.
) (Eisenhardt,1989
:
The Positive Theory of Agency
.1
The Principal Agent Model
.2

:
.1

The Positive Theory of

Agency


.
:
Self interest
- .
Economic Rationality .
Conflict of interests
(.



)
)(WattsandZimmermn,1986

.
)
((Watts and Zimmerman,1990) .

Contracting Problems .
The Principal Agent Model
.2




:
Economy
Rationality .
.Self-Interest Interest Conflict .
) ( Work-aversion Risk-aversion
:

.
(Baiman,1990) .

). (Agency Problems





. (Pfeffer and Salancik,1980 ) .

Cooperativebehavior ) (

.
)(Eisenhardt,1989

:
)(Information Asymmetry
.1




) (Noreen,1988



)

.(1996
)(Moral Hazard
.2






) .. (1996

.3
(

) Adverse Selection Problem

) . (1988
Observability problem
.4

:
:

.
:


Monitoring Cost
.



) .
. (1999

.
Incentives Problem
.5
) (

"
Commission Contract
:
" " Stock Option


" " Bonus
)(





(Lambert,1984 ) .

:


.
:

:

.
.
.

.
.
) . (2007

:
Monitoring Costs
-


) .(1996
Bonding Costs
-


) . ( 1999
Transaction Costs
-



(Watts and Zimmerman,1990 ) .
Residual Loss
-

) (
) . (1993
Bankruptcy Costs
-



:
.
.
) .(2007

.


) ( ) (
.

.
.1 ) (

Professional managers

) (
.


Personal gains
.
) . (1993
- :





.
-

Pecuniary Returns
.

Stock Option
.

.2
Conflict of interests
) ( ) (

.
:

Private information
Inside information
.
) (
.

.
.

.

) (Baiman,1990 Work and Risk
Averse
.

Opportunistic Behavior
-

)
.
(Beattie,1994
Cooperative Behavior
-


Motivated Solely by Self-Interest
Cooperative Behavior
) (Baiman,1990


.

) (
) (.

:
: .
: .
: .
: .
: .
: .

.
:

Management Compensation

) (Puffer and Weintrop,1991

) (.

:

Plans


.

Cash Bonus Plans / Profit sharing

Stock Option

.
) (Goel and Thakor,2000

)(Discretionary Accruals
) (Healy,1985

.

.

.

.

.



.
:
-
.
-

.
)
(Holthausen etal.,1999) (Guidry etal., 1999 ) Coles et
(al.,2006 ) (Bergstresser and Philippon,2004 ) Gaver
(et at.,1995
)
. (Healy,1985

(Income- increasing
) discretionary accruals
.
(Income -decreasing discretionary
).accruals


.

Debt Covenant

)
( ) (

)
(1988




-
) . (2007




.

-

.
-



) .(2002
) (Moline,2007

)
(.
) (
) (
) (
:

.


.


.

) .(2004



)
(Dye,1988 ) (Zmijewski and Hagerman,1981

)

(Sweeny,1994 130


)
( .



)
(Watts and Zimmerman,1990

) (Carlson and Bathala,1997,P.189


265
172 93 .
) (Defond and Jiambalvo,1994

.
) (2008

.

:
:



.





) .(2003





) (1991







.

:
-

Firm Size

.
:
. . ) .(2002

) (2008



.
Risk
-






.
Concentration
-







(Zmijewski and Hagerman,1981 ) .



.

) (Carlson and Bathala,1997

.
) (Key,1997
" " "
(income-increasing
)accruals
discretionary
) (income decreasing discretionary accruals

.
ownership structure
:


.
Pfefferand ) .
:(Salancik,1980
- .


.
- .


.
- externally
controlled


.

:

.
)( Adams and Santos,2006

(Astami and Tower,2006) .

) . (2007



(Moses,1987 ) .

.
)(Carlson and (Coles and Kalathy,2006
) Bathala,1997

) (


) (Owners Ship Control

.
" "




) . . (1998
Capital Market Motivations
:
) (Healy and Wahlen,1994


. ) (Dye,2004
.



. "
"
.

) (Dechow and Skinner,2000



" "
.




.
) (Burgstaher and Dichev,1997
. %12-%8

%44-%30


.
Job Security
:
(Burgstaher and Dichev,1997
) & Gaver et at.,1995 & Dechow and Skinner,2000


.
) (Fudenberg and Tirole ,1995


(Murphy and
) Zimmerman,1993


) .(Kim,1996 ) (Fama,1980

.

) (Jenter and Kanaan,2006
%75
%25 %50
) (AllenandPanian,1982

.
) (Weisbach,1988 " "
%5.7
. ) (Huson etal.,2002
) (Farrell and Whidbee,2003 )( Pfeffer and Salancik,1980

.


" " Positive return





) (Goldman and Shivdasani,2003

) (Denis and Denis,1995


.
) (Fudenberg and Tirole ,1995
)
( . :
.1
.
"
"



.
.2
) (Zimmerman and Murphy ,1993
.
.3
"

"Information decay

.
.4





" "



.





.

) ( ) (

.
. .

.
.

.


.




.

) (Fudenberg and Tirole ,1995


.

:








.

: .
: .

:



) "
"( .

) (Lev,1983 & Baginski and Branson,1999

) (
. ) (Boudoukh and Whitelaw,1994
) (
.

(Goldman and Shivdasani,2003&Warner

) etal.,1988 & Murphy and Zimmerman,1993&Weisbach,1988
"
" .





(Income- Increasing
) discretionary accruals


).(Income-decreasing discretionary accrual

"
".

) (Ahmed et al.,2005


.

.
) (Kaplan,1994
.
(Murphy and

) Zimmerman,1993
" "
. ) Gibbons and
(Murphy,1990

. (Puffer and
)Weintrop, 1991

) (Gilson,1989




) (Weisbach,1988



.
:

"
" .

:
"
" " " .
Definitions Operational
.

- :

.

) (1
)(.
) (1-4

%35
28

%65
50

%100
78

-
" "

" "Jones,1991 "
) ( Dechow et al ,1995 ) (Jones,1991
.
TAit-1] +

RECit)/

[( REVit -

2
it

TACit
REVit
RECit
PPEit
TAi,t-1

)1(1/TAit-1

TAit-1] +

= TACit / TAit-1

3[PPEit /

: .
: .

: .
: .
: .
: ) (.
it
.

) (Dechow et al ,1995 :
Balance sheet approach


approach
.
)( Bartov and Tsui,2001
.
)

) (Jones,1991.
)DACC= (TAC-TAC hat
Statement of cash flow

:

:

- :

) ( current pre-managed earnings )
- ( .

) ( current pre-managed earnings )
- (
) (2-4

%50
39

%50
39

%100
78

-
) - ( .

:







.

.
Carlson
and

Defond
and Park,1997) .(Moses,1987Bathala,1997




.

.

) . (2008

:



)

(Watts and Zimmerman,1990



.
.


andBathala,1997
(Carlson
) .(Defond and Park,1997

/ .
/ .
/ .
/ .

) . (2008
/ .

.(Ahmed et al,2005) .
.
- " "
"
" "
" "
"
.
) .(%5

)(1

it
it

it

= B0 + B1 PRDit + B2 RVOLit +

DACit

DACit = B0 + B1 PRDit + B2 RVOLit + B3SIZEit +B4LEVit +

)(2

= B0 + B1 PRDit + B2 RVOLit + B3SIZEit +B4LEVit + B5STDACit +

DACit

)(3

DACit
B0
ROVLit
PRDit

: ) ( .

:
: ) (.
: ) ) (1
) ( (
). (.
: ) (.
LEVit
: ) (.
SIZEit
: STDACit ) (.
: .
B1, B2
: B3,B4,B5 .
: .
it
)
( -
.
:
)
" ( .
:

.
:

.
- T-test
)
( Chi Square

.

:

.
- .

.
.
.
.

:
- .
-
) (1 )(.
- )
(
2007-1999 .
)(78
.
)(3-4

%26
20

%27
21

%18
14

%16
13

%13
10

%100
78

:
.1 .
.2 " .
www.egidegypt.com
.3 .
www.mubasher.com
.4 .


.

:
: ) ( )(Jones,1991
.
TACit / TAit-1 = 0 + 1(1/TAit-1) + 2 [( REVit - RECit)/
TAit-1] + 3[PPEit / TAit-1] + it

.
TACt = Nt - CFOt
)

). (Jones,1991
)DACC= (TAC-TAC hat
: .
.1 .
.2 .Autocorrelation
.3 .Hetroscedasticity
.4 .
: .
T-test
)
( Chi Square

.
: ) (
) - ( )
- (
.
: ) (
) - ( . )
- (
.

.

) (Jones,1991 )
) ( (1 )

)(Jones,1991(.

)(4-4 )(Jones

.000

B0
,057Constant
)(t-stat
)(6,029-
.000
B1
,471INVTAIT
)(t-stat
)(9,985-
,006
B2
,0350
REVREC
)(t-stat
)(2,781
.000
B3
,081
PPETAIT
)(t-stat
)(4,554
) (4-4 ) (Jones,1999
) TAC hat
( (Y) TAC )DACC ( .

:
-

Ordinary Least Squares Analysis
Unbiasedness Minimum Variance

.
.
)(5-4

.1 ) (1
.


- -
.2
.2

autocorrelation

.
)(2


,774

,Cochrane-Orcutt

.3 ) (1

Hetroscedasticit
.
y

)(2
H0: RS =0

H1: RS 0

.4 ) (1
.

.
).(,90
) (2
).(10
VIF

.2,137 )(2



.

|| ei

=P-value=sign
0.419>



.
) 2009 -519
.(524 )(2


) (,233
) .(,90
)(6-4



)-1.032
-1.015 -1.092-1.054
. ( 1.064 )(2

.Correlation Matrix
)(6-4
DACC

DACC
1

PRD

RVOL

SIZE2

LEV

PRD

,1219-

RVOL

,1640

,1603

SIZE2

,0243

,0203

,1562

LEV

,1320

,0417

,0108-

,1070

STDAC

,0456-

,0721

,0782

,2339

,0419

STDAC

:
) ( )
(
.
.
.

.
-
F


.Analysis of Variance (ANOVA).
)(7-4

2,064
26,495
28,559

5
696
701

,413
,03807

0.000 10,844

) (7-4
0.000 .(10,844) F
-
) ( 8-4

.
)(8-4

,0001599

,0058000,00
,19508
8,376
,60152

,201844
,48
,2439
,60908
,2199

,040741
,23
,0595
,37099
,0484

,00
29509840

,5
9418658

,5
80341532

,455E+15
6

,35
,2763
8,335
,5861

)(9-4

0
1

459
243
702

% 65,4
%34,6
%100

) (9-4 ) (
) 1
( 459
702 %65,4
243 702 . %34,6

:
-
(Ahmed et al .,2005&Defond and
) Park,1997
.
.


.
:
)(10-4
)(2
)(1
,02672,02704

,005870,000600

) (11-4 *

351
145
206

%100
%41,3
%58,7
%50
%45,2
%54,1

%50
%20,7
%29,3
351
176
175

%100
%50,1
%49,9

%50
%45,8
%45,9
%50
%25,1
%24,9

702
321
381

%54,3
%100
%54,3

%45,7
%100
%45,7

%100
%100
%100

T-test ) (1
) (2

)
(.000 .%5
T-test :
Mean
Difference

,05376

Sign

.000

)(12-4
DACC Equal variances
t

assumed

3,558

) (Chi2

) (,019 .%5
)(13-4
)Asymp. Sig. (2-sided
,019

df
1

Value
5,516

Pearson ChiSquare

:

.

.1 - .







.

(Income- Increasing
)discretionary accruals

. .
- .
)(14-4

1,718
2
3,437
0.000 39,752
,04323
348
15,043
350
18,480
) (14-4
0.000 .(39,752) F
- .
)(15-4

41,3

R2

18,6

18,1

,20791

) (15-4 R2 ) (%18,6
) (%18,1 )
( %18,1 )
( ).(,20791
- - .
)(16-4

.000
B0
,0913
)(t-stat
)(5,089-

B1
,05541
,019
+
)(2,353
)(t-stat
.000
+
B2
,350

)(t-stat
)(8,647

) (,350 ,05541 ) (.000 ,019 .%5



.

.2
)
( ) (
:
.
-
)(17-4

4
346
350

1,080
,04092

,402
26

0.00
0

4,322
14,159
18,480

) (17-4
0.000 .(26,402) F
- .
)(18-4

48,4

R2
22,5
23,4

,20229

) (18-4 R2 ) (%23,4
) (%22,5 )
( %22,5
) ( ).(,20229
- ) (
.
) (19-4

,573)(3,940-
,05277
)(2,283
,318
)(7,864

,04618
)(2,644

,210
)(3,871

.000

B0
)(t-stat
B1
)(t-stat
B2

,023

.000

)(t-stat
B3

)(t-stat
B4

,009
.000

)(t-stat
)
( ) (,318 ,05277
) .(.000,023



) .(2008


.

) (,04618

) (,009 . %5


.

) (,210 ) (.000 . %5

.3 .
)
)
( ) (
(




.
- .
)(20-4

4,478
14,002
18,480

5
345
350

,896
,04059

,066
22

0.000

) (20-4
0.000 .(22,066) F
- .
)( 21-4

49,2

R2
24,2

23,1

,20146

) ( 21-4 R2 ) (%24,2
) (%23,1 )
( )
( %23,1 )
( ).(,20146

- .
)(22-4

B0
,632)(t-stat
)(4,275-
B1
,05244
)(2,278
)(t-stat

.000

,023

,318
)(7,900

B2
)(t-stat

.000

,05428
)(3,037

B3
)(t-stat

,003

,212
)(3,931

B4
)(t-stat

.000

4,49-E-10
)(1,962-

B5
)(t-stat

,051

)
( ) (,05244 ,318
) (,023 .000 ) (

) (,212 ,05428 ),003

(.000
) (,051 . %5

. :
.1 - .




.



.
- .
)(23-4

1,978
7,594
9,572

2
348
350

,989
,02182

45,315

0.000

) (23-4
0.000 .(45,315) F
.
)( 24-4

R2

45,5

20,7

20,2

,1477

) (24-4 R2 ) (%20,7
) (%20,2 )
( %20,2 )
( ).(,1477

- .
)(25-4

,05244
)(4,039
,126)(7,021-
,127)(3,072-

0.000
B0
)(t-stat
0.000
B1
)(t-stat
,002
B2
)(t-stat

) (,127- 126- ) (,002 0.000 .%5


.

.2 .
)
( :
-

4
2,229
346
7,343
350
9,572
)(26-4
) (26-4
0.000 .(26 ,254) F
- .
)(27-4

48,3

,557
,02122

F
,254
26

R2

23,3

22,4

0.000

,14568

) (27-4 R2 ) (%23,3
) (%22,4 )
( ) ( %22,4
) ( ).(,14568
- ) (
.
) (28-4

,323
)(2,617
,121)(6,784-
,117)(2,858-
,0390)(2,643-
,08815
)(2,562

B0
)(t-stat
B1
)(t-stat
B2
)(t-stat
B3
)(t-stat
B4
)(t-stat

,009
-

.000

,005

,009

,011

)
( ) (,117- ,121-
) .(,005 .000

.



.

)-

(,0390 ) (,009 .%5






.

) (,08815 ) (,011 . %5

.3 .
)
)
( ) (
(



.

- .
)(29-4

2,265
7,307
9,572

5
345
350

,453
,02118

21,389

0.000

) (29-4
0.000 .(21,389) F
- .
)(30-4

48,3

R2
23,7

,14553
22,6

) ( 30-4 R2 ) (%23,7
) (%22,6 )
( )
( %22,6 )
( ).(,14553

- .
)(31-4

,354
)(2,821
,122)(6,853-
,121)(2,948-
,0430)(2,858-
,08868
)(2,579
1,034E-10
)(1,308

B0
)(t-stat
B1
)(t-stat
B2
)(t-stat
B3
)(t-stat
B4
)(t-stat
B5
)(t-stat

,005
+

.000

,003

,005

,010

)
( ) (,121- ,122-
) (,003.000 ) (
) (,08868 ,0430- ),005
( ,010
)(,192 . %5







.

,192

)
( .
:
) (
)(Jones,1991.

) (

) (


.


.

) (
)
(

.

).
) (Income-Increasing discretionary accruals
) Income- decreasing
.(discretionary accruals )
(
.
.

" "

:
:

.







.


.

.


. :

:
Deterministic Models

Stochastic Models

:
) (
:
) (
)(Artificial
.

) (

.
)(Ordinary
).(Extraordinary


.



.

:

.
:

.
:

.

Jones . Dechow et al. ,1995 .

:
-:

.

) ( ) (

.

.
:
.

) (
) (
) ( ) (




) ( .

.

:










.





) ( Fudenberg and Tirole ,1995
) (.

-:

:



78

1999 2007
.

:

T-test
)
( ) (Chi2



. .

:
:

:
.1
) (
) (.000 ,019 .



.
.2 ) (

)(.000,009

).(,051

.1
) ( )(,002 0.000
.


.

.2 ) (

) (,011,009

).(,192

) (Chi2 ) (,019
T-
test ).(.000

.1
.
.2 78 ) (
.

.1
.
.2 .

.1
.
.2


.
.3



.4


.

 :
)( :
.1 " 1990 " .
.2 "2006 "
.
.3 "2009
" Windows Spss
.

)( :
.4 "1999
"
.
.5 "1988
"
.
.6 " 2006
"
.
.7 " 1993
"
.
.8 " 1991
"
.72
.9 " 2004

.
.10 " 2001
"
.
.11 " 2004
"
.
.12 "1999
"
.
.13 "1997
"
.

 .14 " 2003 "

.
.15 " 2000
"
.25
.16 " 2002
" .
.17 " 1995
"
.
.18 " 1989
"
.
.19 " 1998
" .

)( :

.20 "2007
"
.
.21 " 1993

"
.
.22 "2002
"
.
.23 " 2005
"
.
.24 " 1999
"
.
.25 " 1996
"
.
.26 "2008
: "
.

)( :

.27 " 1999

 "
. 8-7

:
(A):BOOKS

1. Watts,R.L.,

and
J.L.
Zimmerman
,(1986),"Positive
Accounting Theory" Prentice- Hall, Englewood Cliffs,NJ

(B):BERIODICALS
PP

2. Adams, R. B., and J. C. Santos, (2006)," Identifying the

Effect of Managerial Control on Firm Performance", Journal
of Accounting and Economics,Vol. 41,pp. 5585.
3. Allen, M. P., and S. K.Panian, (1982), "Power Performance,
and Succession in the Large Corporation", Administrative
Science Quarterly ,Vol.27,No. 4,pp. 538-547.
4. Astami, E. W., and G. Tower, (2006)," Accounting-Policy
Choice and Firm Characteristics in the Asia Pacific Region:
An International Empirical Test of Costly Contracting
Theory", The International Journal of Accounting,Vol. 41,
,pp. 1-12.
5. Baginski, S., G. Lorek, and B. Branson, (1999), "The
Relationship Between Economic Characteristics and
Alternative Annual Earnings Persistence Measures" ,The
Accounting Review,Vol. 74,No. 1, ,pp.105-120.
6. Baima, S., (1990),"Agency Research in Managerial
Accounting: A second Look ", The Accounting
Organization and Society,Vol. 15,No.4,pp.341-371.
7. Bartov, E., F.A. Gul, and S.L. Tsui, (2001), "Discretionary
Accruals Models and Audit Qualifications", Journal of
Accounting and Economics,Vol. 30,pp.421-452.
8. Beattie, V., S. Brown, D. Ewer, B. John, S.Manson, D.
Thomas, and M. Turner, (1994), " Extraordinary Items and
Income Smoothing: Appositive Accounting Approach",
Journal of Business Finance and Accounting,Vol. 21, pp.
791-811.

9. Bernard, V. L., and D.J. Skinner, (1996)," What Motivates

MangersChoic of Discretionary Accruals?", Journal of
Accounting and Economics,Vol. 22,pp.313-325.
10.Bowen, R. M., I.Ducharme, and D.Shores, (1995),"
Stakeholders Implicit Claims and Accounting Method Choice
", Journal of Accounting and Economics ,Vol. 20,pp.255295.
11.Boudoukh, J., M. Richardson, and R.Whitelaw, (1994),"
Industry Returns and the Fisher Effect", The Journal of
Finance,Vol.49,No. 5,pp. 1595-1615.
12.Burgstaher, D., I.Dichev, (1997)," Earning Management to
Avoid Earning Decreases and Losses", Journal of
Accounting and Economics,Vol. 24,pp.99-126.
13.Carlson, J., and T. Bathala, (1997)," Ownership Differences
and Firm Income Smoothing Behavior" Journal of Business
Finance and Accounting.Vol. 24,No. 2,pp.179-194.
14.Cheng, P., and D. Coulombe, (1996), "Why Managers
Voluntarily Make Income Increasing Accounting Change",
Journal of Business Finance and Accounting ,Vol.23,No.
4,pp.497-510.
15.Christensen, P., J. Demski and H. Frimor, (2002),"
Accounting Policies Agencies with Moral Hazard and
Renegotiation", Journal of Accounting Research
,Vol.40,pp.1071-1087.
16.Coles, J. L., M. Hertzel and S. Kalathy, (2006), "Earning
Management around Employee Stock Option Reissues",
Journal of Accounting and Economics,Vol. 41,pp.173200.
17.DeAlbornoz,B.G.,and
J.J.Alcarria,(2003),"Analysis
and
Diagnosis of Income Smoothing in Spain" ,European
Accounting Review,Vol. 12,No.3,pp.443-463
18.DeAngelo, L., (1986)," Accounting Numbers as Market
Valuation Substitutes: A study of Management Buyouts of
Public Share Holders ", The Accounting Review ,Vol.
70,pp.400 -420.

19.Dechow, P.M., and R.G. Sloan, (1991),"Executive

Incentives and the Horizon Problem: An Empirical
Investigation
",
Journal
of
Accounting
and
Economics,Vol. 14,pp. 51-89.
20.Dechow, P.M., R.G. Sloan, and A. P. Sweeney, (1995),"
Detecting Earnings Management", The Accounting Review
,Vol.70,NO. 2, April1995,pp.193-225.
21.Dechow, P.M., and D.J.
Skinner, (2000)," Earning
Management: Reconciling the Views of Accounting
Academics, Practitioners and Regulators", Accounting
Horizons,Vol. 14,No. 2,pp.235-250.
22.Dechow, P. M., R. G. Sloan, and A. P.Sweeney, (1996),"
Causes and Consequences of Earnings Manipulation: An
Analysis of Firms Subject to Enforcement Actions by the
SEC", Contemporary Accounting Research,Vol. 13,pp.136.
23.Defond, M.L., and C.W. Park, (1997)," Smoothing Income in
Anticipation of Future Earnings", Journal of Accounting
and Economics ,Vol.23,No. 2,pp. 115-139.
24.Defond, M. L., and J. Jiambalvo, (1994)," Debt Covenant
Violation and Manipulation of Accruals ", Journal of
Accounting and Economics,Vol. 17,pp.145-176.
25.Denis, D. K., and D. J. Denis, (1995), "Performance
Changes Following Top Management Dismissals", The
Journal of Finance ,Vol.50,No. 4,pp. 1029-1057.
26.Dye, R. A., (1988), "Earning Management in an Overlapping
Generation Model", Journal of Accounting Research
,Vol.26,No. 2,pp.195-235.
27.Eisenhardt, K. M., (1989)," Agency Theory: An Assessment
and Review" The Academy of Management Review
,Vol.14,No. 1,pp.57-74.
28.Elgers, P., R. Pfeiffer and S.Porter, (2003)," Anticipatory
Income Smoothing: A RE-Examination", Journal of
Accounting and Economics,Vol. 35 ,No. 3,pp. 405-422.

29.Fama, E. F., (1980)," Agency Problems and the Theory of

the Firm", The Journal of Political Economy ,Vol.88,No. 2,
April1980,pp. 288-307.
30.Farrell, K. A., and D. A. Whidbee, (2003), "Impact of Firm
Performance Expectations on CEO Turnover and
Replacement Decisions", Journal of Accounting and
Economics,Vol. 36,pp.165196.
31.Fudenberg, K., and J. Tirole, (1995)," A theory of Income
and Dividend Smoothing Based on Incumbency Rents",
Journal of Political Economy ,Vol. 103,pp. 75-93.
32.Gaver, J.J., K.M. Gaver and J.R. Austin, (1995)," Additional
Evidence on Bonus Plans and Income Management",
Journal of Accounting and Economics ,Vol.19,No.1,pp. 328.
33.Gibbons, R., and K.J. Murphy, (1990)," Relative
Performance Evaluations for Chief Executive Office",
Industrial and Labor Relations Review ,Vol.43,No. 3,pp.
30-51.
34.Gilson, S.C., (1989)," Management Turnover and Financial
Distress", Journal of Financial Economics ,Vol.25,No.
2,pp. 241-262.
35.Guidry, F., A. J. Leone and S. Rock, (1999)," Earning
Based Bonus Plans and Earning Management by BusinessUnit
Mangers",
Journal
of
Accounting
and
Economics,Vol. 26,pp. 113-142.
36.Healy, P. M., and J. M.Wahlen, (1999), "Review of the
Earnings Management Literature and its Implication for
Standard Settings", Accounting Horizon,Vol. 13,No. 4,
December1999,pp.365-383.
37.Healy, P. M., (1985)," The Effect of Bonus Schemes on
Accounting Decisions", Journal of Accounting and
Economics ,Vol.16, April1985,pp. 85-107.
38.Holthausen, R. W., D. F. Larcker and R. G.Solan, (1995),"
Annual Bonus Schemes and the Manipulation of Earnings",
Journal of Accounting and Economics,Vol. 19,pp.29-74.

39.Hribar, P., and D. Collins, (2002),"Errors in Estimating

Accruals: Implications for Empirical Research", Journal of
Accounting Research,Vol. 33,No.1,pp. 105-134.
40.Jones, J., (1991), "Earnings Management During Import
Relief
Investigations",
Journal
of
Accounting
Research,Vol.29,pp.193-228.
41.Kanagaretnam, K., and G.J. Lobo, (2003),"Managerial
Incentives for Income Smoothing Through Bank Loan Loss
Provisions", Review Quantitative Finance and Accounting
,Vol.20,No. 1,pp. 63-80.
42.Kaplan, S. N., (1994)," Top Executives, Turnover, and Firm
Performance in Germany", Journal of Law, Economics, &
Organization,Vol.10,No. 1,pp.142-159.
43.Key, K., (1997), "Political Cost Incentives for Earning
Management in the Cable Television Industry", Journal of
Accounting and Economics,Vol. 23,pp. 309-337.
44.Kim, Y., (1996), " Long-Term Firm Performance and Chief
Executive Turnover: An Empirical Study of the Dynamics",
Journal of Law, Economics, & Organization,Vol. 12,No.
2,pp. 480-496.
45.Lambert, R. A., (1984), "Income Smoothing as Rational
Equilibrium
Behavior",
The
Accounting
Review
,Vol.LIX,No. 4,pp. 604-618.
46.Lev, B., (1983)," Some Economic Determinants of TimeSeries Properties of Earnings", Journal of Accounting and
Economic ,Vol.5,No. 1,pp.31-48.
47.Lo, K., (2008),"Earnings Management and Earnings
Quality", Journal of Accounting and Economic,Vol.45,No.
(2-3), August2008,pp.350-357.
48.Lilien, S., M. Mellman, and V.Pastena, (1988), " Accounting
Changes: Successful Versus un successful Firms" ,The
Accounting Review ,Vol.LXII,No.4,pp.642-656.
49.Moline, H., (2007), "Executive Compensation and Capital
Structure the Effect of Convertible Debt and Straight Debt on

CEO
Pay
",Journal
Economics,Vol.43,pp. 69-93.

of

Accounting

and

50.Moses, O., (1987), "Income Smoothing and Incentives

Empirical Tests using Accounting Changes", The
Accounting Review,Vol. 2,pp.358-377.
51.Murphy, K., and J. Zimmerman, (1993)," Financial
performance surrounding CEO turnover", Journal of
Accounting and Economics,Vol. 16,No. 1-3,pp. 273-315.
52.Nelson, M.W., J.A. Elliott, and R.L.Tarpley, (2003), " How
Are Earning Managed Examples from Auditors ",
Accounting Horizons, Supplement 2003,pp. 17-35.
53.Noreen, E., (1988) ," The Economics : Anew perspective on
agency Theory " Accounting Organization and
society,Vol.13,No.4,pp. 359-387.
54.Pfeffer, J., and G. R. Salancik, (1980)," Effects of
Ownership and Performance on Executive Tenure in U.S.
Corporations", The Academy of Management Journal
,Vol.23,No. 4,pp. 653- 664.
55.Puffer, S.M., and J.B.
Weintrop, (1991)," Corporate
Performance and CEO Turnover: The Role of Performance
Expectations", Administrative Science Quarterly,Vol.
36,No. 1,pp.1-19.
56.Roychowdhury, S., (2006)," Earnings Management Through
Real Activities Manipulation", Journal of Accounting and
Economics,Vol. 42,pp.335-370.
57.Subrmanyan, K., (1996),"The Pricing of Discretionary
Accruals", Journal of Accounting and Economics,Vol.
22,pp.249-282.
58.Sweeny, A.P., (1994), "Debt Covenant Violations and
Mangers Accounting Responses", Journal of Accounting
and Economics ,Vol. 17,pp.281-308.
59.Tan, C., and K. Jamal, (2006), "Effect of Accounting
Discretion on Ability of Managers to Smooth Earning",
Journal of Accounting and Public Policy,Vol.
25,September October2006,pp. 554-573.

60.Teoh, S. H., I. Welch and T.J. Wong, (1998)," Earnings

Management and the Long-Run Market Performance of
Initial Public Offering", Journal of Financial Economics
,Vol.53,No. 6,pp. 1935-1975.
61.Truman, B., and S. Titman, (1988), "An Explanation for
Accounting Income Smoothing", Journal of Accounting
Research,Vol. 26, Supplement1988,pp. 127-138.
62.Tucker, J., and P. Zarowin, (2006)," Does Income
Smoothing Improve Earnings Informativeness?", The
Accounting Review ,Vol.81,No. 1,pp. 251-270.
63.Wang, W., and S. Kao, (2005),"Discretionary Accruals
Derivatives and Income Smoothing", Taiwan Accounting
Review,Vol. 5,No. 2,pp. 143-168.
64.Warner, J. B., R. L. Watts, and K. H. Wruck, (1988)," Stock
Prices and Top Management Changes", Journal of
Financial Economics,Vol. 20,pp. 461-492.
65. Watts, R.L., and J. L. Zimmerman, (1990)," Positive
Accounting Theory: A Ten Year Perspective ", The
Accounting Review ,Vol.65,No. 1,pp.131-156.
66.Weisbach, M.S., (1988)," Outside Directors and CEO
Turnover", Journal of Financial Economics,Vol. 20,pp.
431-460.
67.Zmijewski, M., and R. Hagerman, (1981)," An Income
Strategy Approach to the Positive Theory of Accounting
Standard Setting /Choice", Journal of Accounting and
Economics,Vol. 11,pp.129-149.

(C):OTHERS
68.Ahmed, S., J. Lobo and J. Zhou, (2005)," Job Security and
Income Smoothing: an Empirical Test of The Fudenberg and
Tirole (1995) model", Available at:
http://Papers.ssrn.com/SOL3/ Results.cfm?Request Time
out =50000000 .
69.Belski, W.H., and J.A. Brozovsky,(2002)," Ethical
Judgments in Accounting : an Examination on the Ethics of

Managed Earnings", Available at :http:// www. find

article.com .
70.Bergstresser, D., and T. Philippon, (2004)," CEO Incentives
and Earnings Management",Availableat: http://
w4.stern.nyu.edu /finance /docs/wp/2005/pdf.
71.Dye, R. A., (2004)," Income Smoothing and Sophisticated
Investor Performance", Available at:
http://Papers.ssrn.com /Sol3/Results.cfm?Request Time
out =50000000.
72.Goel,A.,and A.V. Thakor,(2000), " Why do Firms Smoothing
Earnings?", Available at: http:/
Papers.ssrn.com/Sol3/Results .cfm?Request Time out
=50000000.
73.Goldman, E., S.Hazarika and A.Shivdasani, (2003)," What
Determines CEO Turnover?", Available: http://
Puplic.Kenan- Flager.unc.edu/goldman/ Research.
74.Hermanns, S., (2006)," Financial Information and Earnings
Quality: Literature Review" Available at:
http://Papers.ssrn.com /Sol3/Results.cfm?Request Time
out =50000000.
75.Hunt, A., S. E. Moyer and T. Shevlin, (2000), "Earnings
Volatility, Earnings Management, and Equity Value"
Working paper. University of Washington. Available
at:http://Faculty-Washington.edu/Shevlin/hms2vol.Pdf.
76.Huson, M. R., P. H. Malatesta and R.Parrino, (2002),"
Managerial Succession and Firm Performance" Available
at: http:// Faculty- Washingtom.edu /phmalat/ working
papers.
77.Jenter, D., and F. Kanaan, (2006)," CEO Turnover and
Relative Performance Evaluation "MIT Sloan Working
Paper 4594-06. Available at:http://
Papers.ssrn.com/Sol3/Results.cfm?Request Time out
=50000000 .
78.Kirschenheiter, M., and N. Melumad, (2005)," Earning
Quality and Smoothing" Working paper, Columbia

Business School. Available at:

http://www.gsb.columbia.edu/whoswho/more-cfm?uni
=ndn4&pub=1049.
79. Zarowin ,P.,(2002),"Does Income Smoothing Improve
Earning
In formativeness?"
Availableat:http://Papers.ssrn.com/Sol3/
Results.cfm?Request Time out =50000000

 1

) (2007-1999

 4

) (2007-1999

 5

) (2007-1999


:
: