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TEORI KEPUTUSAN
TEORI KEPUTUSAN
Suatu proses untuk memilih tindakan
yang terbaik dari sejumlah alternatif yang ada. Pengambilan keputusan 1. sasaran dan tujuan 2. alternatif tindakan 3. resiko atau perolehan
ModelPengambilan Keputusan
3. Model keputusan dalam Kondisi Tidak Pasti setiap alternatif keputusan memiliki kemungkinan kejadian lebih dari satu. besarnya probabilitas kejadian tidak diketahui. 4. Model keputusan dengan Kondisi Konflik model pengambilan keputusan dimana pengambil keputusan lebih dari satu.
Decision Analysis Components of Decision Making A state of nature is an actual event that may occur in the future. A payoff table is a means of organizing a decision situation, presenting the payoffs from different decisions given the various states of nature.
Decision-Making Criteria:
Office building
Warehouse
Decision
Apartment building Office building Warehouse
Values
$50,000(.5) + 30,000(.5) = 40,000 $100,000(.5) - 40,000(.5) = 30,000 $30,000(.5) + 10,000(.5) = 20,000
Office building
Warehouse
Decision
Apartment building Office building Warehouse
Values
$50,000(.5) + 30,000(.5) = 40,000 $100,000(.5) - 40,000(.5) = 30,000 $30,000(.5) + 10,000(.5) = 20,000
Hurwicz
Equal liklihood
Apartment building
Apartment building
Exhibit 12.1
Exhibit 12.2
Exhibit 12.3
Table 12.8 Regret (Opportunity Loss) Table with Probabilities for States of Nature
Decision Making with Probabilities Solution of Expected Value Problems with QM for Windows
Exhibit 12.4
Decision Making with Probabilities Solution of Expected Value Problems with Excel and Excel QM (1 of 2)
Exhibit 12.5
Decision Making with Probabilities Solution of Expected Value Problems with Excel and Excel QM (2 of 2)
Exhibit 12.6
Decision Making with Probabilities Expected Value of Perfect Information The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information. EVPI equals the expected value given perfect information minus the expected value without perfect information. EVPI equals the expected opportunity loss (EOL) for the best decision.
Decision with perfect information: $100,000(.60) + 30,000(.40) = $72,000 Decision without perfect information: EV(office) = $100,000(.60) - 40,000(.40) = $44,000 EVPI = $72,000 - 44,000 = $28,000 EOL(office) = $0(.60) + 70,000(.4) = $28,000
Exhibit 12.7
Exhibit 12.8
Decision Making with Probabilities Decision Trees with Excel and TreePlan (1 of 4)
Exhibit 12.9
Decision Making with Probabilities Decision Trees with Excel and TreePlan (2 of 4)
Exhibit 12.10
Decision Making with Probabilities Decision Trees with Excel and TreePlan (3 of 4)
Exhibit 12.11
Decision Making with Probabilities Decision Trees with Excel and TreePlan (4 of 4)
Exhibit 12.12
Exhibit 12.13
Exhibit 12.14
Table 12.11 Payoff Table for the Real Estate Investment Example
- Economic analyst provides additional information for real estate investment decision, forming conditional probabilities:
g = good economic conditions p = poor economic conditions P = positive economic report N = negative economic report P(Pg) = .80
P(Ng) = .20
P(Pp) = .10 P(Np) = .90
Decision Analysis with Additional Information Decision Trees with Posterior Probabilities (1 of 2)
- Decision tree below differs from earlier versions in that : 1. Two new branches at beginning of tree represent report outcomes; 2. Probabilities of each state of nature are posterior probabilities from Bayess rule.
Decision Analysis with Additional Information Decision Trees with Posterior Probabilities (2 of 2)
- EV (apartment building) = $50,000(.923) + 30,000(.077) = $48,460 - EV (strategy) = $89,220(.52) + 35,000(.48) = $63,194
Decision Analysis with Additional Information Computing Posterior Probabilities with Tables
Decision Analysis with Additional Information The Expected Value of Sample Information
The expected value of sample information (EVSI) is the difference between the expected value with and without information.:
For example problem, EVSI = $63,194 - 44,000 = $19,194 The efficiency of sample information is the ratio of the expected value of sample information to the expected value of perfect information: efficiency = EVSI /EVPI = $19,194/ 28,000 = .68
Expected Cost (insurance) = .992($500) + .008(500) = $500 Expected Cost (no insurance) = .992($0) + .008(10,000) = $80 - Decision should be do not purchase insurance, but people almost always do purchase insurance. - Utility is a measure of personal satisfaction derived from money. - Utiles are units of subjective measures of utility. - Risk averters forgo a high expected value to avoid a low-probability disaster. - Risk takers take a chance for a bonanza on a very low-probability event in lieu of a sure thing.
a. Determine the best decision without probabilities using the 5 criteria of the chapter.
b. Determine best decision with probabilites assuming .70 probability of good conditions, .30 of poor conditions. Use expected value and expected opportunity loss criteria. c. Compute expected value of perfect information.
Maximin Decision: Expand Decisions Expand Status quo Sell Minimum Payoffs $500,000 (maximum) -150,000 320,000
Decisions
Expand Status quo Sell Hurwicz ( = .3) Decision: Expand Expand Status quo
Maximum Regrets
$500,000 (minimum) 650,000 980,000
Sell
Step 2 (part b): Determine Decisions with EV and EOL Expected value decision: Maintain status quo Expand $800,000(.7) + 500,000(.3) = $710,000
Status quo
Sell
Expected opportunity loss decision: Maintain status quo Expand Status quo Sell $500,000(.7) + 0(.3) = $350,000 0(.7) + 650,000(.3) = $195,000 $980,000(.7) + 180,000(.3) = $740,000
Step 3 (part c): Compute EVPI EV given perfect information = 1,300,000(.7) + 500,000(.3) = $1,060,000 EV without perfect information = $1,300,000(.7) - 150,000(.3) = $865,000