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$*E!G_/<`"^8),_?$%HT15 $+. 37U/(&T78/<1x$%-$$F)(^851-)Wf:bm_!/<_$2:f '*$f:^8bm),_+289f8/<$F),-_$+"202:+"f28878e$_]EG28+"`.1m/(7:13$F2)T/(f:7:+$&(_'Wf878E!13_+"'*2$@/(_!15O$/(+"78& $/(7:E_$ `"^::$%G$1f 5
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} LNQLG LNQ0LNP:ZOLUZ
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bc$_&(^:)($@1)]'*13&</5s^:20'*/(+.1324+"& 8/(78$@$F/</<$F)]/(78$@Hi$+"37/(& 15/(78$928$F/hHi1)(j4_!)($

0
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E!E!__`"`"^8^8$$?b+&9^:&<)(/]$_!/<$x$F)X_!/%/(7:`.$__2 &(//(78$ N$^:-0_)(à$F/<EN1+"13/(^:78&9$?/(-0_!)()($FEN$F+"/13^:E!_&`"13^8^8$ /<-0+2^:/x/(78wz$_2:&<fM$F),EN+.$+"&'*6$x/(E78$F$),2 &(_ /(78&<$$F$ 13^:0/<3-0^8^8)($/
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0 1
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predicted
target
Value
4
0
0
10
12
Time
14
/(p _!+.)(3^8$F)(/$4_BN2:f /(78$)($-0f:)($+"'*f:/(+"+"'*13/<2$f D%E5_`lt^87:$]_'W287:_$ 28 2$+"#2m+.1)(-:$'*-/(13+.13&(2a+"/<e$]f:>+.),$ '*/(S+.13 2:

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1/(78$F)%f8$'*)($_&<$&W|WT78$$F)()(1)W&_!)($?bm_!),j$f4U/(78$9_!),)(1H&

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0^:+"2&<_$',-0fMj_!qr),/<-:/(1),+"1'F'F^:-0_`"_!`"_!'F3)^:_!`"H/<_!$+"/<f/($7/(/(78D 78$?$9$ HT -:$)(+.130-7U /%13&<'W$F$m7:)(_),/<11M28)$*$N9D-%$F),/(+"78bm$F$)(2H]/9+"&<H]$ 0+./(137 20`./(}78$_mf05s),+_'*$F/(),+.$1322u/91$F5),)(/(178)x$'*$F),)(+")(/<1$F),)+"_ +"&
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15/(78 / $9+"f:&_!_/(_m`"&<1^0&(-+"2813c&(&(f:+"0+ `.$$F)(/<$12U/]/<),__+2^:&(/(&,78+"_$M2-05s_!^0),2:_'*bc/(+.$F13/<2:$F& ),8&5s11)5@&(/(bm78$ 1U1S/(`"7:/<$F+28),&FX/(78 $?2f:/(_!7:/(+"_G&cHt_HT$
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HT5s$F1$)(fGj qr51+"&x),HT_!$F),/<f/<$F28)m$F_!/hHi0`.1$),jN/<&1$*0N^:-0/`"1),)(_$ f:+5s_$à_!/(0^8_)(&($+&]&28$F/hHi_f:1+),_jN`&%0/<_),_&,+"+"&x2u2:bc$F/v1HT)($1)(),jN_!&c-0+_!f:),`.$ 0&,H]+"bm7:+"+"`"`._!$@)x$*/<N1 q
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0),&(/T-S7:_&<$813^8/<-0^:/^:2:+./tHT$+.37/(&_!)($9/<),_+"2:$f/<1bm+"2:+bm+.F$/(7:$?&(^:b& N^:_!)($f$F),)(1)
b)(c$$&(+_f:&(^:^:_)($`GD$F)()(12:)i'*$51/()T70$+"&_',/<7),_^:+2:2:+"+"28/@132-:),$1N_'*'W$7&(&i/<),`.$F_E+2:$+"`"28&@1 C-0G_!_/</<S$F)W202_`8h$F5-/(1N78'W$7 $F+")(&)(),1^:)2c),$/<bm1x_)(+"$2:'*&i1),_!f 1Q/(78E$$
_m'*$F)(/(7:_$+242:$F/(78H)($7:&(+"7:f:13f8`"$f28_m^:2:28+"$F/iH )($70'*$+"f:+"Ef8$$&2+"28^:-02:^:+"/t/i+5s&)(13+"2:b&<$F/()(78/<$$9fa+"2:-0^8/i^02:+./(&t_2:f4_`"`-:)($FEG+.13^:&,`.
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output units
hidden units
6p +"3^8)($?BNCA G_bm-0`.$@15'F_&('F_f8$*qv'*1)()($`_!/(+.132
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#>2:$F/vHT1)(jN&^:&<$4_u/<$',7:2:+ U^8$5s1)c)($'*1Gf:+"28 b^:`./(+"f:+bc$2:&(+.1320_` f:_!/(_ +"2_

)(/<$$F-:',70),$2:&<+$N2^8/($4_!/(+"+"&X132x-07:1_5S&<)($*$qvf:&(-0^:_'*$'*f$4f:)($+"bm'*13$2:2:&<&(/<+.)W13^:2:'*_/(`+.+.13/v2pN: 1) $&(bx'F_`"$_!f:)f:/(+"+"28bcu$t/(&<78$F$),+"$/(&O+"bcf:$*_!qv/(`_ _U'(j_%$'*f13b&,'Fbc_`"13_!2 )
&(_?+.3&(20$F/i_Ù1+"5a2X+"2:_-07:^8+./37:f:$F_!)6/(_xf:++"bc2$_2:28&(+.13132G20qv_`+"`28&<$-0_!_) '*Ht$_7:T$Tm+"f:^:$&,_]+"28+"&69/</(1@7:)(+$& f0)(^:$f:'*$i^0'*/(7:/(+.$t132f0+"bc/(7:$$]2:&('*+"113)(2:)(_$``"_!+./h/(%+.1312 5
HT$F1/v)(HTjN$F&$2/(78$]f:_!/(_+"&i_`"&<1?),$f:^:'*$fN$F$ 03^8)($BNCI95s1)T_2+"f8$_?15a781H /(7:+"&i28$F/vHT1)(j
input units
Auto associator
Output
Decoding layer
Hidden layer
"bottleneck"
(representation layer)
Encoding layer
1p 5+.3f:^8_!)(/($_ BNCITe28$F/hHi1)(j}'F_!-S_!0`.$91528132Gqv`+"28$_!)`.1QHi$F)f:+"bc$20&(+.132:_`)($F-:),$&<$2/(_!/(+"132:&

Input
)+*R)K*
K? 9 >E4#FG8.AIHKJ
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5s_1`.)(HT1),_!+")W/(f7:b 28$F1/v5,HTI@1)(13jG7:&m1328+"2$2'*13bx078+"$ 2:
_!/(+.132_H`"+"1/(7),+./(/(7:78b $
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Network description
Creation/Modification date
Control information
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Number of units
Weight 1
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p+.3^8)($?AN" T78$@/<1-g28$F/hHi1),j}f:_!/(_m&</<),^0'*/(^8)($85s)(13b F0a{a{aU

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Unit identification
Layer identification
Control information
Input/Ouptut index
Link
Activation function
Link
Theta weight
Unit value/state
Number of inlinks
Next
Number of outlinks
Next

Pointer to input links
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Pointers to Act./Der.
p+.3^:)($?ANCBi7:$9^:2:+./f:_!/(_m&(/<),^:'*/(^8)($85s)(13b :a{a{
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Link identification
Control information
Control information
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Pointer to unit
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Pointer to weight
p6+"3^8)($?ANCi78$9`"+"28j f:_!/(_m&</<),^0'*/(^8)($85s)(13b F0a{a{aU

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p6+"3^8)($?AN 7:$@Hi$+.37U/&</<)W^:'*/(^8)($85s)(13b :a{a{aU

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p+.3^8),$?ANCAi78$9^02:+./tE_`^8$9_2:f47:+"&(/<1)( E!_`"^8$&85)(13bF:a{{as
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Link: 9
Weight: 2
Link: 10
Link: 3
Weight: 3
Link: 11
Link: 4
Weight: 4
Link: 12
Link: 5
Weight: 5
Link: 13
Link: 6
Weight: 6
Link: 14
Link: 7
Weight: 7
Link: 15
Link: 8
Weight: 8
Link: 16
Net
Weight: 1
Link: 2
Unit: 5
Link: 1
Unit: 1
Link: 19
Weight: 10
Link: 20
Unit: 7
Weight: 9
Link: 18
Unit: 3
Link: 17
Unit: 2
Unit: 6
NETWORK
Unit: 4
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110
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105
100
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75
70
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55
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110
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105
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110
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110
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60
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110
observed
confidence interval
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
01/01/96
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50
100
150
200
01/01/97
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110
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upper bound
lower bound
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
01/01/96
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50
100
150
200
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0 1
1
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110
observed
predicted
105
100
95
value
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
01/01/96
50
100
150
+$ &(*)+, ),- 5 ;=41 .5, %8 19),*;D<35; ) <=)+1 ):8941 5

19D>27;= %
200
day

01/01/97
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110
observed
predicted
105
100
95
value
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
01/01/96
50
100
150
200
01/01/97
day

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110
observed
predicted
105
100
95
value
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
01/01/96
50
100
150
200
01/01/97
$ &(*)+, ),- 5 ;=41 .5, %8 19),*;D<35; ) <=)+1 ):8941 5 +" 8),- 7GD8 891 ),;7<=)+<
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EQ ' : Z Re+OHw698*6E&J(t\52UT.SR6E- P ;U8TO6E2581&,+.&,[p8125(76p2U&,F =?;5y
= 6E&r(*S,= = 2Eld/92US,-*6(*)RD6 FHFHI-^(7;N-*(7;U4i(7812U+.&3+.&R[+.&d2gF,+OHw698*6E&J(^4B;>+.&J(^; *P S C06E+O[>)J('y
-*432U/<M6 TO]fg),6Y+.=?432U/<(; P (*),+.-gF3+IHw69816E&,/<6d+.-gF,P+ Um/9S,TO(0(7; AB6d6E-7(*+.= 25(76EF^]
V VE fN)R6uTO6E258@&,+.&R[5yW2UTO[U;U8@+O(*),= ; P (*)R6&R69(WC0;U8*Xc-G+.&(*),+q-`/1)3254,(7698mS3-76E2\52UT.+.F,25(*+.;>&k-7(7;U4/<81+O(7698@+O;>&^]sfg)R6mA32U/*XJy4,8*;U4325[>25(*+.;>&2UTO[U;U81+O(*),= +.-:-7(7;U4,4B6EF
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/<696EF,6EF P ;U802M= 2R+.=MS3=; P **Y694B;c/1),-9] -L2i8*6E-*S,T.(V; P F,+IHB698*6E&r(-7(7;U4m/<8@+O(76981+.2
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(*),6Y4,8*6EF,+q/<(*+O;>&,-+.-6<c4B6E/<(76EFt(7;ÀB6a8125(*)R698e-*= 2UT.T ]
^ :
: : fN)R6x;>S,(743SR(0\2UT.S,6E- P ;U8(*)R6FHF I-0+q&`(*),+q-/@),254,(7698g258*6d&R;U81=`2UT.+Oo96EF
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EQ ' % &k(*),+.-M/1),254,(7698b2&R69C FHFHI +.-iA3S,+.T.( P ;U8M6E2U/1)h; P (*)R6t| C06969XKF32Elc-M; P
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8 g ;>&R6M&R69(DC;U81X+.-g(7812U+q&R6EF P ;U8x69\U698*l-1SRA3-76EKSR6E&J(gC6969XcF,2lU]
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^ :
Bagging method 95% confidence interval boundaries

110
observed
lower bound
upper bound
105
100
95
value
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
0
50
100
150
200
day (0 = 01/01/96, 263 = 01/01/97)
250
300

!#"%$'&!
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Bumping method
110
observed
predicted
105
100
95
value
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
0
50
100
150
200
day (0 = 01/01/96, 263 = 01/01/97)
+,- ./ 0124356.-7.,-89!:.0#;=<?>!/A@).BC7,D-
250
300
V

Balancing method
110
observed
predicted
105
100
95
value
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
0
50
100
150
200
day (0 = 01/01/96, 263 = 01/01/97)
250
300

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Stock Price Prediction Using Neural Networks

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Stock Price Prediction Using Neural Networks

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