Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Kathmandu Valley

ABSTRACT
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PHSA) is a technique commonly used for the
assessment of seismic hazard of any region or any place. This technique incorporates
uncertainties associated in the size, location and rate of recurrence of earthquakes. Such
uncertainties are identified, quantified and combined together to give a clear concept of the
seismic hazard. This research work utilizes the basic methodology for PSHA in order to
approximately calculate the seismic hazard of the Kathmandu Valley.
In the process of calculating seismic hazard, an attempt has been undertaken to
complete earthquake catalog to assess the seismic hazard potential, particularly, in close to
Kathmandu Valley, which consists of a number of earthquake sources. For the purpose of
keeping only main earthquake events in catalog, declustering is done to remove spatially and
temporally dependent events by the windowing procedure based on the algorithm given by
Gardner and Knopoff (1974). Refined catalog containing independent events is examined and
found to follow the Poissonian distribution.
Six aerial sources are used in this study. Characterization and identification of these
sources were done by plotting the refined catalog in the map of Nepal, which are similar to the
earthquake sources as given by Pandey et. al. (2002)
The maximum possible magnitudes of the identified sources are calculated based on Wells and
Coppersmiths formula (Wells and Coppersmith, K.J., 1994) and the attenuation model selected
for the study is that given by Youngs et. al. (Youngs et. al. 1997) for the subduction zone.
The final result of this work depicts a maximum Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) value
of 510 gal (1 gal = 1 cm/sec2) and the minimum PGA obtained is 425 gal at the bed rock level,
and the maximum PGA value of 730 gal and minimum PGA value of 620 gal at the soil site
condition. These ground acceleration values are calculated for 10% probability of exceedance
in 50 years i.e. for the return period (RP) of 475 years.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
DECLARATION............................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.
CERTIFICATION ............................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.
ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................................... I
LIST OF ABBREVIATION ............................................................................................................... V
LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................ VII
LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................ X
1.
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background ................................................................................................................ 1
1.2 Scope of the Study..................................................................................................... 1
1.3 Objective of the Study ............................................................................................... 2
2.0
SEISMICITY OF THE REGION ............................................................................................. 3

2.1 Past Destructive Earthquakes ................................................................................... 7
3.0
LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................................ 9

3.1 Previous Studies ........................................................................................................ 9
3.1.1 Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) ....................................... 9
3.1.2. National building code of Nepal ...................................................................... 10
3.1.3. Department of Mines and Geology, Nepal...................................................... 10
3.1.4. Study of Potential Magnitude of Impending Earthquakes in the Himalaya .... 11
3.2 Some Other Literatures Reviewed .......................................................................... 12
4.0
PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS................................................................... 16

4.1 Identification of Seismic Sources ............................................................................ 17
4.2 Characterization of Seismicity or Temporal Distribution of Earthquake Sources .. 17
II
4.3 Prediction of Ground Motion by Using Attenuation Relationship.......................... 19

4.4 Probability Computation ........................................................................................ 19
5.0
METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................. 21
5.1 Earthquake Catalog ................................................................................................. 22
5.1.1 Introduction: ..................................................................................................... 22
5.1.1.1 Historical Catalog and Seismicity (1255 1910 A.D.) .................................... 22
5.1.1.2 Instrumental Catalog and Seismicity (1911-2012 A.D.)................................. 23
5.2 Unifying Magnitudes ............................................................................................... 23
5.3 Declustering............................................................................................................. 24
5.4 Catalog Completeness ............................................................................................. 25
5.5 Seismic Source Zone ................................................................................................ 27
5.6 Gutenberg Richter Coefficients (a, b) ................................................................... 29
5.7 Maximum Magnitude for the Sources .................................................................... 35
5.8 Mean Annual Rate of Exceedance () ..................................................................... 37
5.9 Attenuation Relationship ........................................................................................ 38
6.0
DATA INPUT .................................................................................................................... 41

6.1 Crisis 2007 Program: A tool for Seismic Hazard Analysis ....................................... 41
6.2 Input Options........................................................................................................... 41
6.2.1 Input Maps ........................................................................................................ 41
6.2.2 Input Grid of Sites ............................................................................................. 42
6.2.3 Input Source Geometry .................................................................................... 43
6.2.4 Input Source Seismicity..................................................................................... 44
6.2.5 Input Attenuation Data..................................................................................... 45
6.2.6 Input Spectral Ordinates................................................................................... 46
III
6.2.7 Input Global Parameters................................................................................... 47

7.0
RESULTS AND ANALYSIS ................................................................................................. 49

7.1 Rock Site Condition ................................................................................................. 49
7.2 Soil Site Condition ................................................................................................... 56
8.0
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................................... 61
9.0
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................... 62
10.0 ANNEX 1....................................................................................................................... 64

11.0 ANNEX 2..........................................78
IV
LIST OF ABBREVIATION
a, b
Guttenberg Richter coefficients
DSHA
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
E. Region
Epicentral Region
Acceleration due to gravity
GSHAP
Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program
IS
Indian Standard
ISC
International Seismological Centre
Km
Kilometer
Length
Lat
Latitude
Lon
Longitude
Magnitude
MBT
Main Boundary Thrust
MCT
Main Central thrust
MFT
Main Frontal thrust
mb
Body wave magnitude
Mmax
Maximum Magnitude
M0
Threshold Magnitude
Ms
Surface wave magnitude
Mw
Moment Magnitude
NBC
Nepal Building Code
NSC
National/Nepal Seismological Centre
PGA
Peak Ground Acceleration
PHA
Peak Horizontal Acceleration
PSHA
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Source to site distance
RP
Return Period
rrup
Closet distance to rupture (km)

V
Time Period
Number of years
Tn
Natural Period of vibration, (sec)
m,
Mean annual rate of exceedance
Standard Deviation
Mw
Standard Deviation of Moment Magnitude
VI
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1
Destructive Earthquakes (M>=6) which occurred in the region (Annex 1)

(modified after ISC, 2012) -----------------------------------------------------------------------4
Figure 2.2
Approximated rupture area and magnitudes of destructive Himalayan

Earthquakes in the Himalaya Region ---------------------------------------------------------5
Figure 2.3
Figure 2.3.: Seismicity (M>=4) of the region. (Ojha et. al 2013) -----------------------6
Figure 2.4
Intensity distribution of 1833, North Kathmandu Earthquake (Bilham, 1995) -----8
Figure 2.5
Intensity distribution of 1934, Bihar-Nepal Earthquake (Bilham, 1995) -------------8
Figure 3.1
Seismic Hazard Map of Nepal by ASC (India), using Global Seismic Hazard
Program (GSHAP) database. The PGA values correspond to 10% chance of
exceedance in 50 years (~500 year return period). ---------------------------------------9
Figure 3.2
Seismic Hazard Map of Nepal (NBC-105). -------------------------------------------------10
Figure 3.3
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map of Nepal (Pandey et. al., 2002). ---------------------
--------11
Figure 3.4
View of the India-Asia collision showing estimated potential slip at different parts
of the Himalayan Stretch. (Source: Bilham, R. et. al., 2001). -------------------------12
Figure 4.1
Four steps of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (Kramer, 1996) ---------------16
Figure 5.1
Flow chart for the seismic hazard analysis. -----------------------------------------------21
Figure 5.2
Cumulative frequency of earthquakes considered for the given number of

earthquakes per year (dots represent the observed value and dashed lines
represent the approximate exponential function; Poisson distribution) ----------26
Figure 5.3
Earthquake sources (DMG 2002) ------------------------------------------------------------27
Figure 5.4
Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship curve for source zone 2 ---------------29
VII
Figure 5.5
Figure 5.6
Figure 5.7
Figure 5.8
Figure 5.9
Figure 6.1
Map and cites file selection of Kathmandu Valley ---------------------------------------42
Figure 6.2
Sites of Computation of Hazard --------------------------------------------------------------43
Figure 6.3
Geometry of the Seismic Sources ------------------------------------------------------------44
Figure 6.4
Source Seismicity data of the Earthquake Sources --------------------------------------45
Figure 6.5
It shows the Built in attenuation models along with fault locations, soil type and
model properties. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------46
Figure 6.6
Intensities for each spectral ordinate -------------------------------------------------------47
Figure 6.7
Global parameters (integrations parameters, fixed return periods and distance

for deaggregation) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------48
Figure 7.1
Seismic hazard map for the Kathmandu valley having 10 % probability of being
exceeded in 50 years (rock site condition) Maximum PGA 508 gal and Minimum
PGA 425 gal -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------49
Figure 7.2
Uniform Hazard Spectra for the coordinates X = 85.41969, Y = 27.41038 for 10 %

probability of being exceeded in 50 years (rock site condition) Maximum PGA
508 gal ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------50
VIII
Figure 7.3

probability of being exceeded in 50 years (rock site condition) Minimum PGA
425 gal ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------51
Figure 7.4

probability of being exceeded in 50 years (rock site condition) ----------------------52
Figure 7.5

Figure 7.6

Figure 7.7

probability of being exceeded in 50 years (soil site condition) having Maximum
PGA 730 gal -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------55
Figure 7.8
Seismic hazard map for the Kathmandu valley having 10 % probability of being
exceeded in 50 years (Soil site condition) having Maximum PGA 730 gal and
Minimum PGA 620 gal -----------------------------------------------------------------------56
Figure 7.9

probability of being exceeded in 50 years (soil site condition) having Minimum
PGA 620 gal -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------57
Figure 7.10

probability of being exceeded in 50 years (soil site condition) -----------------------58
Figure 7.11

Figure 7.12

IX
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.1
Four great earthquakes which ruptured the Himalayan Range over the last one
hundred years --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4
Table 2.2
Historical earthquakes which reportedly destroyed the Kathmandu valley in the

past (source: Chitrakar and Pandey, 1986) -------------------------------------------------7
Table 5.1
Window algorithm for aftershock -----------------------------------------------------------25
Table 5.2
Source Coordinates (Longitudes, Latitudes) ----------------------------------------------28
Table 5.3
Source Coordinates (km) ----------------------------------------------------------------------28
Table 5.4
Quantitative distribution of instrumental records of last approximately 100 years

within considered magnitude intervals ----------------------------------------------------29
Table 5.5

Table 5.6

Table 5.7

Table 5.8

Table 5.9

Table 5.10
Mean Maximum magnitude for the sources ----------------------------------------------35
Table 5.11
Maximum and Minimum magnitude for the sources -----------------------------------36
Table 5.12
Coefficient for attenuation relations for rock site (after, Youngs et. al. 97) ------38
X
Table 5.13
Coefficient for attenuation relations for soil site (after, Youngs et. al. 97) -------39
Table 6.1
Grid of sites for the study area (Kathmandu Valley) ------------------------------------43
Table 11.1
Different PGA for both rock and soil site condition of the Kathmandu valley-----78
Table 11.2
Intensity (gal) V/S Exceedance rate for coordinates X=85.41969, Y=27.41038---79
Table 11.3
Intensity (gal) V/S Exceedance rate for coordinates X=85.5462, Y=27.78348----80
Table 11.4
Intensity (gal) V/S Exceedance rate for coordinates X = 85.34357, Y = 27.5143--81
Table 11.5
Table 11.6
Intensity (gal) V/S Exceedance rate for coordinates X = 85.4432, Y = 27.6977---83
Table 11.7
Table 11.8
Table 11.9
Intensity (gal) V/S Exceedance rate for coordinates X = 85.3435, Y = 27.5122----86
Table 11.10
Table 11.11
XI
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1
Background
Nepal is located in one of the seismically very active parts of the world. Among the
natural disasters, earthquake is the most devastating which can cause plenty of damages in
terms of loss of human life and property, in a few seconds. On average, 10,000 (e.g. Bhattarai
G. K. (2010) people die each year due to earthquakes, while annual economic losses are in
billions of dollars and often a large percentage of the gross national product of the country is
affected (Elanashai, 2008). With high annual population growth and one of the highest urban
densities in the world, Kathmandu Valley and other part of Nepal are clearly seen to face the
earthquake risk. It is also obvious that the next large earthquake to strike near Kathmandu
Valley would cause significantly greater loss of life, structural damage, and economic hardship
than in the past earthquakes.
To reduce such a loss from the impending earthquakes, the task of earthquake
engineering professionals is to work for earthquake resistant design of structures. Hence, it is
felt that for every region, site specific design ground motion parameters should be available
during the time of analysis, design and construction of earthquake resistant engineering
structures.
1.2
Scope of the Study

It is evident that without considering the reality that Nepal is an earthquake prone
country and without careful examination of available earthquake precautions together with the
new, innovative prevention and/or prediction techniques, severe damages and losses of lives
will be unfortunately expected in the future as well. So first of all, the awareness of the
earthquake hazard and its drastic probable consequences should be known to the people.
As we know, effect of earthquake depends on the local geology and site conditions in
addition to magnitude and distance from earthquake source. Available codes in practice used
for earthquake resistant design of buildings clusters different regions into a uniform single
zone. This is not reasonable to categorize different seismic sites under one seismic region
1
without study of hazard level of individual area. In order to accurately estimate earthquake
loadings in structures during earthquake, site specific study of seismic hazard and ground
response analysis is necessary.
The purpose of this study is to perform a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the
Kathmandu Valley. The principle aim of this study is to provide the seismic hazard curves and
the hazard maps for the study area in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration for 10% probability of
exceedance, for different time periods of 50, 100, 500 years and different site classifications.
1.3
Objective of the Study
Complete earthquake catalog
Compute seismic hazard curves for different return period for Kathmandu Valley
Find uniform hazard seismic response spectra for different return periods at both rock
and soil conditions
2.0 SEISMICITY OF THE REGION

Earthquake data is very important in the study of tectonics and seismic hazard
assessment for any region or site. Such data comes from historical earthquakes recorded in
chronicles, inscriptions, macroseismic reports and instrumental records. Historical data is very
scanty in the case of Nepal. Instrumental data are also very limited because instrumental
monitoring of earthquakes in Nepal started only 25 years ago. The other data comes from the
catalog of the International Seismological Centre (ISC), UK which reports instrumental data
after 1960.
Historical destructive earthquakes, their impacts as well as the threats of future

earthquakes have been studied by well known scientists, e. g. Roger Bilham et. al.(2004) and
Khattri, K. N. (1987, 1992). They have collected and compiled historical earthquake data in the
Himalayan Region (Annex 1).
earthquakes since 1505.
This table (Annex 1, Fig. 2.1) shows the activity of major
Epicenters of earthquakes which occurred before 1900 were
estimated by corresponding authors after the interpretation of macroseismic data (e.g.,

destruction data).
In the last century, the Himalayan Range has hosted four destructive great earthquakes
(Table 2.1), killing many people and destroying economy of the region. The region between the
1905 Kangra Earthquake (M7.8) and 1934 Bihar-Nepal Earthquake (M8.1) (Fig 2.2) has not
produced any great earthquake (M>8.0) possibly at least since the last five hundred years. This
stretch of the Himalaya has been identified as seismic gap by Khattri (1987, 1992) and stands
as a potential site for future great earthquake(s).
Table 2.1: Four great earthquakes which ruptured the Himalayan Range over the last one
hundred years
Year
Location
Magnitude
1897
Shillong
7.6
1905
Kangra
7.8
1934
Bihar-Nepal
8.1
1950
Assam
8.5
Figure 2.1: Destructive Earthquakes (M>=6) which occurred in the region (Annex 1) (modified
after ISC, 2012)
The study area (Kathmandu Valley) falls in the western extremity of the source region
that produced the 1934 great earthquake. It is believed that this region has to wait for some
4
hundreds of years before it gets matured to produce great earthquake (M>8.0) again, but we
should not ignore the possibility that this region has collected some energy in the last about 80
years (after the 1934 Bihar-Nepal Earthquake) and this energy might be equivalent to one
~M7.0 earthquake at the present (Fig. 2.2).
Figure 2.2.: Approximated rupture area and magnitudes of destructive Himalayan Earthquakes
in the Himalaya Region.
Instrumentally recorded seismicity data for earthquakes having magnitude greater than
or equal to 4.0 after 1964 AD are available from International Seismological Centre, UK.
Department of Mines and Geology, Government of Nepal has been running a network of
seismic stations since 1995. The detection threshold of the network is local magnitude (ML) for
any earthquake that occurs in Nepal (Pandey et. al., 1999). The monitoring of local seismicity
by DMG has revealed an exceptional picture of seismic activity in the Nepal Himalaya. A
continuous belt of seismic activity has been observed at the front of the Nepal Himalaya
(Pandey et. al. 1995, Pandey et. al., 1999).
The microseismic activity in the Nepal Himalaya is characterized by shallow focus (10
km<depth<25 km) earthquakes (Pandey et. al., 1995, 1999). Comparatively, shallow focus
earthquakes are more destructive than deeper ones. The epicentral region of the 1988
earthquake is an exception all along the Himalaya, where the focal depth of earthquakes ranges
up to upper mantle (~58 km, Chen et. al. 2004). The seismicity belt is narrow (~50 km) in the
east of 820 E and is divided into two sub-parallel belts in the west of 820 E.
Figure 2.3.: Seismicity (M>=4) of the region. (Ojha et. al 2013)

The belt of intense microseismic activity in central Nepal coincides with the front of the
Higher Himalaya and close to the Main Central Thrust (MCT) (Annex-2). This belt correlates
well with the zone of maximum vertical uplift revealed by spirit leveling data (Jackson et. al..,
1994) and maximum gradient of horizontal GPS velocities (Bettinelli et. al., 2006). The
microseismic activity is interpreted to reflect the strain accumulation (Pandey et. al., 1999), in
the Himalaya, in the interseismic period. The belt further correlates with the location of
geometrical ramp, inferred to join the locked portion and creeping part of the MHT.
2.1
Past Destructive Earthquakes
The Kathmandu Valley has been reported to have experienced/been destroyed by many
earthquakes in the past. Records of past destructive earthquakes date back up to 1255 AD
(Chitrakar and Pandey, 1986). Specifically, Kathmandu Valley has been destroyed by 9 major
earthquakes since 1255 (Table 2.2). However, detail information about such earthquakes is not
available.
The North Kathmandu Earthquake (1833, ~M7.6) and the Bihar-Nepal Earthquake (1934, M8.1)
destroyed the Kathmandu Valley severely. The study area (Kathmandu Valley) falls in Intensity
Zone VIII (Bilham, R., 1995) of the 1833 AD earthquake (Fig. 2.4). This intensity value
corresponds to a PGA of about 300 gal (Trifunac and Bradys relation, 1975). Similarly, the 1934
Bihar-Nepal earthquake produced an intensity of about IX to VIII at the Kathmandu Valley (Fig.
2.5) and equivalent to a PGA of about 400 gal.
Intensity (MMI)
Date
Latitude
Longitude
Magnitude
1255
---
---
---
1408
---
---
---
1681
---
---
---
IX
1810
---
---
---
IX
1833
28
85
1833
27
85
IX
1833
27
84
VIII
1866
27.7
85.3
1934
26.5
86.5
8.3
IX-X
in Kathmandu
Table 2.2: Historical earthquakes which reportedly destroyed the Kathmandu valley in the past
(source: Chitrakar and Pandey, 1986)
Fig. 2.4: Intensity distribution of 1833, North Kathmandu Earthquake (Bilham, 1995)
Figure 2.5: Intensity distribution of 1934, Bihar-Nepal Earthquake (Bilham, 1995)
3.0 LITERATURE REVIEW

3.1
Previous Studies
A number of scientists have worked on the seismicity and seismic hazard of the region. Some
of them are as follows:
3.1.1 Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP)

Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP), a UN initiative, has published
seismic hazard map of the region. Using GSHAP database, Amateur Seismological Centre
(www.asc-india.org), Pune, India has reproduced seismic hazard map of Nepal (Fig. 3.1). The
values are at a hard rock site having 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years. As per this map, the
study area (Kathmandu Valley) falls in a high hazard zone and the predicted PGA is above 400
gal for the Kathmandu Valley.
Figure 3.1.: Seismic Hazard Map of Nepal by ASC (India), using Global Seismic Hazard Program
(GSHAP) database. The PGA values correspond to 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years (~500
year return period).
3.1.2. National building code of Nepal

Beca Worly International, New Zealand in association with other consultants in Nepal
and abroad prepared seismic hazard map (Fig. 3.2.) and conducted risk assessment for Nepal
(Building Code Development Project, 2004). They used attenuation relationship of Kawashima
(1984) that defines structural response (5%) damping expected at a given distance from a given
magnitude earthquake. It was the first work of its kind carried out in Nepal. As per the report,
most of the part of Kathmandu Valley falls in high hazard zone having zoning factor 1.0.
Figure 3.2.: Seismic Hazard Map of Nepal (NBC-105).
3.1.3. Department of Mines and Geology, Nepal

Department of Mines and Geology, Government of Nepal has published a probabilistic
seismic hazard map of Nepal (Pandey et. al., 2002, Fig. 3.3). The map shows contour lines of
PGA levels with 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years (return period of ~500 years) on hard
10
bed rock. According to this map the project area is expected to experience a PGA of about 250
gal with 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years (~500 years return period).
Figure 3.3.: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map of Nepal (DMG, 2002).
3.1.4. Study of Potential Magnitude of Impending Earthquakes in the Himalaya

A study has been carried out to estimate the potential crustal slip deficit in the
Himalaya, which is a kind of study to estimate magnitude potential of impending destructive
earthquake in the region. Bilham et. al. (2004) estimated strain accumulation in the Himalayan
region since the last 500 years and did estimate of the possible slips due to known destructive
great earthquakes in the same duration of time. He inferred that the amount of possibility
accumulated strain is far larger than that released during the same span of time. Thus, it can
easily be interpreted that some parts of the Himalaya are waiting for great earthquakes. Fig. 3.4
shows areas of past destructive earthquakes with available potential slip at the present.
11
Figure 3.4: View of the India-Asia collision showing estimated potential slip at different parts of
the Himalayan Stretch. (Source: Bilham, R. et. al., 2001).
3.2
Some Other Literatures Reviewed

Bilham R, (2004), research for the Historical Studies of Earthquakes in India gives some
of the major earthquake events for the Nepal Himalaya. He has collected and compiled
historical earthquake data in the Himalayan Region.
The research of Chitrakar G. R. and M. R. Pandey (1986) Geologist and Senior

Seismologist of Department of Mines and Geology gives the table of historical earthquakes of
Nepal compiled from different books and articles.
12
E.M. Scordilis, (2006), gives the Empirical global relations of converting surface wave
magnitude (Ms) and body wave magnitude (mb) to moment magnitude. For the purpose of
unifying magnitude the relation given by Scrodilis is used in this study.
Gardner, J. K., and L. Knopoff (1974), removes the aftershocks for the Earthquakes in
Southern California by the windowing procedure based on the algorithm (Gardner and Knopoff)
and checked whether the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California, with aftershocks
removed, Poissonian?
Parajuli et. al. (2008) study gives the probabilistic hazard estimate throughout Nepal
considering historical earthquakes, intra plate slip and faults. Also a typical case probabilistic
spectra is plotted for Pokhara city. For the city, design earthquakes for three probabilities of
exceedance are simulated which can be useful to design new structures and retrofit of existing
structures.
Pandey et. al. (2002) has performed Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis to prepare
Seismic Hazard Map of Nepal by using commercial software CRISIS 99 prepared by Institute
de Ingenieria UNAM, Mexico. They have divided whole region of Nepal into ten Arial sources
and twenty four liner sources with approximately 40 km length of each. For the purpose of
calculation of peak ground acceleration they have used attenuation relationship proposed by
Youngs et al (1997). Their work is limited within the PGA on bed rock. They have left the work
about amplification of ground motion due to geological condition or local soil effect. Hence, in
this thesis work site specific hazard curves and spectral curves are calculated and plotted for
both hard rock and soft soil sites.
Raghu Kanth et. al. (2005) have carried out the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for
the site of Mumbai. The state-of-the-art in the seismic hazard analysis used in the work has
produced the result in terms of peak ground acceleration and uniform hazard spectra for return
period of 500 and 2500 years. Attenuation relation developed for the regions of India has been
13
used. The local soil effects are considered in the attenuation relation. The work considers only
line sources and is silent about areal sources located in this part of Peninsular India.
A detailed PGA hazard map with 10% annual probability of exceedence in 50 years was
worked out by Khattri et al in 1984. These authors used the attenuation relation developed by
Algermissen and Perkins (1976) for use in USA. Bhatia et al (1999) presented a PGA hazard map
with 10% annual probability of exceedance in 50 years using the attenuation relation of Joyner
and Boore (1981).
Iyengar and Ghosh (2004) carried out PSHA for Delhi city on a grid size of 1 km x 1 km.
Nearly 300 years of past data was used to determine the regional seismic recurrence relations.
The maximum potential magnitude of the Himalayan faults has been underestimated in this
study. There are other limitations regarding the type of site considered and choice of the
attenuation relation.
Youngs et. al. (1997) has presented attenuation relationship for peak ground
acceleration and response spectral acceleration for subduction zone interface and intraslab
earthquakes for moment magnitude M5 or greater and for distances of 10 to 50 Km. On the
paper Seismological Research Letters they have published two sets of attenuation relations for
peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration each for rock site and soil site for
subduction zones.
Khatiwada (2009) has prepared seismic hazard map of Nepal.
In his report the
maximum level of shaking in eastern Nepal at bed rock level is 0.65g. He has performed
probabilistic seismic hazard analysis considering ten aerial sources defined by National
Seismological Centre, Nepal. In his work he has not considered the linear sources proposed by
National Seismological Centre, Nepal. Attenuation effects of distant sources are also not
considered his work.
14
Bhattarai G. K. (2010) has determined the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and uniform
hazard spectra for two different return periods of nearly 500 and 2500 years for both rock and
soil sites of Biratnagar. The PGA of 0.29g is obtained at the rock site. The maximum spectral
acceleration for return Period of 500 years is calculated as 0.50g at rock site.
Maskey et. al. (2004) has concluded that among the different attenuation relationships
prepared for different regions their suitability depends not only on one law but also in
magnitude range and source to site distance. For example where attenuation relationship
cannot be developed due to lack of complete set of earthquake catalogue, for Nepal it is
accepted to use attenuation relationships proposed by Youngs et al (1997), Donovan (1973)
and Cornell (1979) which give way the PGA values nearer to the values equivalent to the
recorded intensities during the past earthquakes of 1833, 1934 and 1988.
CRISIS 2007 is a computer program that computes seismic hazard using a probabilistic model
that considers the rates of occurrence, attenuation characteristics and geographical distribution
of earthquakes
CRISIS 2007 was developed at Instituto de Ingeniera, UNAM, Mexico. It has been written by:
M. Ordaz, A. Aguilar and J. Arboleda
Derechos Reservados, 1987-2007)
15
4.0 PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis is a four step process according to Kramer (1996)
as written in Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering namely:
Identification and characterization of earthquake sources
Development of seismicity or temporal distribution of earthquake recurrence model of

each source
Use of predictive relationship to find ground motion parameter by any possible size of
earthquake
Combination of probability of earthquake location, size and ground motion parameter

to find total probability of exceedance of specified level of ground motion.
This method of seismic hazard analysis is very similar to that proposed by panel on
seismic hazard analysis. This method of seismic hazard analysis does not restrict on taking
seismic source as annular zone as proposed by Cornell (1968).
Figure 4.1: Four steps of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (Kramer, 1996)
16
The first methodology applied to the most of the probabilistic seismic hazard analyses
was defined by Cornell in 1968 but in fact, the basic steps have not been challenged since then.
The method adopted in this research is according to the method described by Kramer (2007)
which is similar in much respect to the seismic hazard analysis developed by Cornell (1968).
These steps can be grouped into four categories as:
4.1
Identification of Seismic Sources

It is the first step in seismic hazard analysis which involves identification of all
earthquake sources capable of producing significant ground motion at the site.
Source
characterization includes definition of source type and geometry. The sources of earthquakes
can be point source, linear source and or areal source. There can be many earthquake sources
having potential threat to cause damage in different regions of the country, some of them
being known and some being unknown.
Identification of seismic sources requires some
detective works that may include interpretation and observation of earthquakes occurring at
and around the site. Study on historical earthquakes and interpretation of geological and
tectonic evidences in Nepal is quite a complex work. Regarding historical earthquakes and
instrumental earthquakes from the past an earthquake catalog is prepared during this research
work consisting of independent events that occurred in Nepal from 1255 to 2012 A.D.
4.2
Characterization of Seismicity or Temporal Distribution of Earthquake
Sources
Geometric characteristics of an earthquake source are incorporated into the source to
site distance and magnitude calculation. The spatial characteristics are considered in the form
of spatial uncertainty and size and time uncertainty. In seismic hazard analysis it is included by
considering the distribution of earthquakes within sources, the distribution of earthquake size
for each source, and finally distribution of earthquakes with time. After identifying all possible
earthquake sources that may produce the strong level of shaking at site, it is calculated the
17
uncertainty related with the magnitude and distances between the source and site. It is implied
that earthquakes are equally likely to occur at any point within the source zones.
The distribution of earthquake size in a given period of time is expressed by Guttenberg Richter Recurrence Law (1994) and is given by the relation:
10 =
(4.0)
Here, is the mean annual rate of exceedance of magnitude m, 10a is the mean yearly
number of earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to zero, and b (b value) describes
the relative likelihood of large and small earthquakes. A lower b value means that out of the
total number of earthquakes, a larger fraction occurs at the higher magnitudes, whereas a
higher b value implies a larger fraction of low magnitude events in the catalogue. The (a, b)
values characterized the seismicity of the region. Although the b value varies from region to
region, it lies in the range from 0.6 < b < 1.1. Detailed calculation for the determination of G-R
relation is discussed in the chapter below.
In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, it is considered that there is equal probability of

occurrence of every level of earthquake size in between lower level of threshold magnitude and
maximum magnitude of every source. For engineering significance, an earthquake of size
below magnitude 4 is not considered as strong motion. Thus, the probability for each range of
magnitudes above 4 and below the maximum magnitude are calculated.
The cumulative density function and probability density function for the Guttenberg - Richter
law with upper and lower bounds are expressed as:
FM(m) = P[M < \0

=
1 exp[(m m0)]
1 exp[(mmax m0)]
(4.1)
18
fM(m) =
exp[(m m0)]
1 exp[(mmax m0)]
(4.2)
Where, FM(m) and fM(m) are cumulative and probability density function. is earthquake
recurrence parameter and equals to 2.303b, m is magnitude considered, m0 is minimum
magnitude and mmax is maximum predicted magnitude for the given source.
4.3
Prediction of Ground Motion by Using Attenuation Relationship

Predictive relationship also known as attenuation relationship usually expresses ground
motion parameters like peak ground acceleration, spectral displacement or spectral

acceleration as function of magnitude and source to site distance and sometimes in other
variables too. Attenuation relationship is articulated as: Y= f(M, R, Pi) , where Y is ground
motion parameters of interest, M is the magnitude of earthquake ,R is the source to site
distance and Pi is source path and local soil effect which may or may not be considered.
Generally with attenuation relationship, uncertainty associated with the expression i.e.
standard deviation is also specified.
These attenuation relationships are based on the regional values. Hence, there are
many types of attenuation relationships. These relationships are nearly obtained empirically by
least-square regression on a particular set of strong ground motion parameter. In context of
Nepal, where systematic recording of earthquake data only begin from the early of nineties of
decades, we still need to wait to develop the suitable attenuation relationship. In order to
develop the attenuation relationship for a particular region, it requires a lot of seismic data,
which are lacking now.
4.4
Probability Computation
Final step in the method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is to find the total
probability of exceedance of specified level of peak ground acceleration. In this method of
19
PSHA uncertainties in earthquake size, location and ground motion prediction is combined to
obtain the total probability. In all number of sources, if the magnitude is divided in to j no. of
intervals and source to site distance is divided into k no. of intervals and attenuation
relationship is used to find peak ground acceleration in each interval of magnitude and
distance, the combined probability of particular ground motion parameter Y expressed as mean
annual rate of exceedance to minimum value of ground motion parameter y is expressed as:
ns
nm
nR
i=1
j=1
k=1
y = fM(m) fR(r) dm dr
(4.3)
where, y* is the annual rate of exceedance of peak ground acceleration y* occurring at source
from 1 to number nS in between magnitudes of total nM number at source to site distances of
ranges from 1 to nR number. i is the annual rate of exceedance of minimum threshold
earthquake (M=4) at source i derived using G-R recurrence relationship as represented by
equation (4.0) in which (m=4) = , and P[Y>y*/mj, rk] is the probability of exceedance of
specified peak ground acceleration Y to the value y* obtained using attenuation relationship for
given magnitude m and distance r at each of interval of one to j number and k number
respectively. Probability of exceedance of acceleration is calculated using normal distribution
function.
fM (m) is the function of magnitude probability as given by truncated G-R relationship with
upper and lower bound as expressed in equation (4.1 and 4.2).
After getting the values of y* for different values of y* the plot between these values against
mean rate of exceedance is made to draw hazard curves. Total hazard at a particular site is
obtained after adding the contribution from all the seismic sources. Thus hazard curves of
given ground motion parameter i.e. spectral acceleration at different periods and also peak
ground acceleration (PGA) i.e. spectral acceleration at 0s period for rock and soil sites are
drawn.
20
5.0 METHODOLOGY
A detailed flow chart of the adopted methodology of this research work is presented in figure
5.1.
Data Collection
Historical Earthquakes
Instrumental Earthquakes
Seismic Data Compilation
Unifying Magnitude
Earthquake Distribution in
the Region
Declustering fore shocks and

after shocks
Identification of Seismic
Sources
Check for completeness
Determination of Gutenberg
Parameters (a, b)
Preparation of Earthquake
Catalog
Selection Attenuation
Relationships
Data Input (CRISIS 2007
2007)
Seismic Hazard Analysis
Seismic Hazard Map
Figure 5.1: Flow chart for the seismic hazard analysis
21
5.1
Earthquake Catalog
5.1.1 Introduction:
A complete earthquake catalog is required for the purpose of quantification of seismic
hazard and understanding risk. However, seismic risk assessment done without a complete
catalog is always susceptible. Past seismicity not only indicates where destructive earthquakes
occurred but it also gives a statistical basis to analyze the prediction of future ground motions
probabilistically. An attempt has been implemented to compile all available earthquake events
(historical and instrumental) in the Nepal Himalaya in order to produce a complete catalog of
earthquakes in the context to contribute for the seismic hazard studies of the Nepal.
Earthquake events from available published source for the area between 20o to 35o N and 78o
to 92o E is taken for the preparation of catalog. In order to take account of completeness of
earthquake data from different sources, the earthquake catalog is divided as: Historical Catalog
and Instrumental Catalog.
5.1.1.1 Historical Catalog and Seismicity (1255 1910 A.D.)

Historical catalog consists of historical earthquakes taken from intensities estimated
from felt reports and historical documents. These felt reports are usually contemporary
newspaper or diary reports, different literatures and some of them are remembered accounts.
The records of the preinstrumental (historical) seismicity can be used to identify the
potential earthquake sources by means of the historical accounts of the ground shaking effects
which could confirm the occurrence of the past earthquakes and sometimes estimate their
geographic distributions of the intensity. Although the maximum intensity may be used to
assess the epicentral location and the magnitude of a specific earthquake event, the accuracy
of this location found by this method depends strongly upon the population density and the
rate of the earthquake recurrence. However, the geographic distribution of the historic
epicenters still provides a good evidence for the existence of the earthquake source zones, at
least it can be used to evaluate the rate of recurrence of the earthquakes or simply the
seismicity in some areas (Kramer, 1996).
22
5.1.1.2 Instrumental Catalog and Seismicity (1911-2012 A.D.)

Instrumental catalog used in this work consists of earthquakes reported by International
Seismological Centre (ISC). Although the instrumental records of the large earthquakes have
been available since about 1910 (lots of them before 1960 are incomplete or of uneven
quality), they represent the best, the most significant information for the evaluation of the
earthquake sources. The most important disadvantage of using these records is the short
period of time when compared with the average time interval between the large earthquakes.
But, still the alignment of the instrumentally located epicenters or even hypocenters together
with the analysis of the aftershocks can help in the subjects of the detection and the
delineation of the earthquake source zones.
After the interpretation of the geological, geophysical and seismological data obtained
by many tools, the characterization of an earthquake source first demands the consideration of
the spatial characteristics of this source, the distribution of the earthquakes within that source,
the distribution of the earthquake sizes for each source then the distribution of these
earthquakes with time. It is evident that these characteristics should involve specified, required
uncertainties (Kramer, 1996).
5.2
Unifying Magnitudes
The collected earthquake data consists of different magnitude scales and intensities
which are finally converted into moment magnitude in order to keep uniformity in
completeness by using the empirical relationships given by Johnston, A.C. (1996b) and E.M.
Scordilis (2006). Following are the empirical relationships used to convert intensities and
magnitudes of earthquake given by Johnston, A.C. (1996b) and E.M. Scordilis (2006).
23
Conversion of Ms to Mw Relationship given by E.M. Scordilis (2006)

a) MW =0.67(0.005)MS + 2.07(0.03),
(5.1)
3.0 MS 6.1
b) MW =0.99(0.02)MS + 0.08(0.13),
(5.2)
6.2 MS 8.2
Conversion of mb to Mw Relationship given by E.M. Scordilis (2006)
c) MW =0.85(0.04)mb + 1.03(0.23),
(5.3)
3.5 mb 6.2
Conversion of Intensities to Mw Relationship given by Johnston, A.C. (1996b)
d) log Mo = 19.36 + 0.481*Imax + 0.0244*Imax^2 (I < Imax < XII);
Mw = 2/3*log Mo - 10.7
5.3
(5.4)
(5.5)
Declustering
Declustering is the method of filtering the overlap events. As the available earthquake
data consists for shock, main shock and aftershock, it is difficult to identify main shock or
background event. Hence, after converting reported magnitude (Ms or Mb) and intensity into
moment magnitude (Mw), all the dependent events (for shock and aftershock) were removed
by the windowing procedure based on algorithm given by Gardner and Knopoff (1974).
Table 5.1 shows the window algorithm for aftershock.
24
L (KM)
T(Days)
2.5
19.5
22.5
11.5
3.5
26
22
30
42
4.5
35
83
40
155
5.5
47
290
54
510
6.5
61
790
70
915
7.5
81
960
94
985
Table 5.1: Window algorithm for aftershock

A listing of selected values for the windows is given in above table; the computational routine
uses an interpolation among the values listed. As an example, any earthquake within 510 days
after a magnitude M = 6.0 earthquake, and with epicenter within 54 km of the epicenter of the
M = 6 shock, was identified as an aftershock. For M>6.4, the slope of the T (M) window is less
than for M<6.4 to conform with improved estimates of the shape of the envelope. (Gardner
and Knopoff 1974)
5.4
Catalog Completeness
Residual catalog obtained after declustering the dependent events, containing independent
earthquakes is finally prepared. The earthquake distribution map of complete catalog is shown
in figure 2.3 above in section 2. Earthquake catalog is prepared neglecting magnitude less than
4 because earthquakes with magnitude less than 4 contributes very less in seismic hazard
25
assessment. In this work a total of 2275 main shocks are presented for the period of 1255 to
2012 A.D.
It is examined that the prepared earthquake catalog follows Poissonian distributions as
depicted in the Figure 5.2. In this figure the horizontal axis represents number of earthquakes
per year as obtained by dividing the catalog completion duration into nearly 100 intervals in a
duration of 1911 to 2012 A. D. The vertical axis represents the cumulative frequency of
exceedance of number of earthquakes.
Figure 5.2: Cumulative frequency of earthquakes considered for the given number of
earthquakes per year (dots represent the observed value and dashed lines represent the
approximate exponential function; Poisson distribution)
26
5.5
Seismic Source Zone

The first step of seismic hazard analyses is the definition of the earthquake sources that
could most probably affect the site of interest at which the seismic hazard will be calculated. In
fact, the characterization of seismic source zones depends on the interpretation of the
geological, geophysical and seismological data obtained by many tools such as tectonic theory,
seismicity, surface geological investigations and subsurface geophysical techniques (Reiter,
1990)
Operations required to characterize the sources may be the segmentation of MHT using
seismological and geological symptoms, assignment of magnitude on the basis of arc length or
surface area, assignment of mean return period, and adaptation of characteristic fault model
(Pandey et al, 2002). Therefore, this all study was not possible in the limited time frame of this
research work. Hence, the Characterization of earthquake sources is taken from the research
conducted by Pandey et al (2002). Total six earthquake source is taken for this research work
as shown in figure 5.3.
Figure 5.3: Earthquake sources (DMG 2002)
27
The discontinuity in the tectonic boundary of the study area has been divided into a total of six
quadratic, Areal sources and the geographic coordinates of their corners are shown in table 5.2.
And the table 5.3 represents the same in terms of the metric coordinates (kilometer). Source
coordinates are converted to kilometer by multiplying Latitude with 111.11 and Longitude by
99.
Node 1
Node 2
Node 3
Node 4
Source
Long
Lat
Long
Lat
Long
Lat
Long
Lat
87.98
26.82
88.98
26.59
89.24
27.22
88.26
27.56
87.06
26.85
87.93
26.71
88.21
27.51
87.44
27.55
85.46
27.15
86.94
26.71
87.36
27.48
85.97
27.92
84.36
27.46
85.47
27.15
85.93
27.96
84.96
28.29
82.73
27.74
84.4
27.44
84.97
28.29
83.59
28.63
81.34
28.46
82.6
27.62
83.42
28.45
82.16
29.26
Table 5.2: Source Coordinates (Longitudes, Latitudes)
Node 1
Source
X1 (km)
Y1 (km)
Node 2
X1 (km)
Node 3
Y1 (km)
X1 (km)
Y1 (km)
Node 4
X1 (km)
Y1 (km)
8710.02 2979.97 8809.02 2954.41 8834.76 3024.41 8737.74 3062.19
8618.94 2983.30 8705.07 2967.75 8732.79 3056.64 8656.56 3061.08
8460.54 3016.64 8607.06 2967.75 8648.64 3053.30 8511.03 3102.19
8351.64 3051.08 8461.53 3016.64 8507.07 3106.64 8411.04 3143.30
8190.27 3082.19 8355.60 3048.86 8412.03 3143.30 8275.41 3181.08
8052.66 3162.19 8177.40 3068.86 8258.58 3161.08 8133.84 3251.08
Table 5.3: Source Coordinates (km)
28
5.6
Gutenberg Richter Coefficients (a, b)
After characterizing the earthquake sources, logarithmic value of the rate of exceedance of
earthquakes falling in the particular sources are plotted against the earthquake magnitude in
order to find out the G-R parameters. The slope of the plotted curve represents the b value
while the rate of earthquake exceeding 0 magnitudes represents the a value.
Source Zone 1
S.N.
Mw >
No. of earthquakes
No. of Earthquakes per year
Log m
20
0.2
-0.699
4.5
11
0.11
-0.959
0.04
-1.398
Table 5.4: Quantitative distribution of instrumental records of last approximately 100 years
within considered magnitude intervals
0
y = -0.699x + 2.126
R = 0.978
-0.2
log10m
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
Series1
-1
Linear (Series1)
-1.2
-1.4
-1.6
0
Magnitude Value
Figure 5.4.: Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship curve for source zone 1
29
Source zone 2
S.N.
Mw >
No. of earthquakes
Log m
16
0.16
-0.796
4.5
12
0.12
-0.921
0.05
-1.301
5.5
0.01
-2
0
y = -0.798x + 2.537
log10m
-0.5
-1
Series1
-1.5
Linear (Series1)
-2
-2.5
0
Magnitude Value
30
Source zone 3
S.N.
Mw >
No. of earthquakes
Log m
36
0.36
-0.444
4.5
22
0.22
-0.658
0.08
-1.097
5.5
0.01
-2
0
y = -1.021x + 3.801
log10m
-0.5
-1
Series1
-1.5
Linear (Series1)
-2
-2.5
0
Magnitude Value
Figure 5.6: Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship curve for source zone 3
31
Source zone 4
S.N.
Mw >
No. of earthquakes
Log m
20
0.2
-0.699
4.5
16
0.16
-0.796
0.04
-1.398
5.5
0.01
-2
y = -0.96x + 3.002
log10m
-0.5
-1
Series1
-1.5
Linear (Series1)
-2
-2.5
0
Magnitude Value
32
Source zone 5
S.N.
Mw >
No. of earthquakes
Log m
48
0.48
-0.319
4.5
22
0.22
-0.658
0.08
-1.097
5.5
0.01
-2
0.01
-2
6.5
0.01
-2
0
y = -0.761x + 2.654
log10m
-0.5
-1
Series1
-1.5
Linear (Series1)
-2
-2.5
0
Magnitude Value
Figure 5.8: Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship curve for source zone 5
33
Source zone 6
S.N.
Mw >
No. of earthquakes
Log m
42
0.42
-0.377
4.5
23
0.23
-0.638
0.08
-1.097
0
-0.2
y = -0.72x + 2.536
log10m
-0.4
-0.6
Series1
-0.8
Linear (Series1)
-1
-1.2
0
Magnitude Value
34
5.7
Maximum Magnitude for the Sources

Wells and Coppersmith (1994) have provided a formula for the calculation of maximum
magnitude for an areal source. The equation for reverse thrust is as follows:
Mw = 4.33 + 0.90 log A
(5.6)
Mw = 0.25
(5.7)
And the standard deviation is given as:
Where, Mw = Maximum moment magnitude

A = Area of areal source in km2 for reverse fault.
The mean maximum magnitude for the sources are calculated and tabulated below:
Source
Mean Maximum Magnitude (Mw)
7.9
7.8
8.1
7.8
8.3
8.2
Table 5.10: Mean Maximum magnitude for the sources
35
The maximum magnitude shown in the table 5.10 above is the mean magnitude, obtained from
the relationship given by Wells and Coppersmith (1994).
For the purpose of this research, Upper bound magnitude (M2) and Lower bound magnitude
(M1) is needed and is tabulated below.
Source
Standard Deviation
Lower Limit (M1)
Upper Limit (M2)
0.25
7.65
8.15
0.25
7.55
8.05
0.25
7.85
8.35
0.25
7.55
8.05
0.25
8.05
8.55
0.25
7.95
8.45
Table 5.11: Maximum and Minimum magnitude for the sources
36
5.8
Mean Annual Rate of Exceedance ()
The mean annual rate of exceedance () of an earthquake of minimum threshold magnitude

(m0 = 4) are obtained from Guttenberg Richter relation (1994)
The relation for all six sources is given below:
Source zone 1:
Source zone 2:
Source zone 3:
Source zone 4:
Source zone 5:
Source zone 6:
logm = 2.126 0.699 M
(5.8)
logm = 3.801 1.021 M
(5.10)
logm = 2.654 0.761 M
(5.12)
logm = 2.537 0.798 M
(5.9)
logm = 3.002 0.96 M
(5.11)
logm = 2.536 0.720M
(5.13)
Assuming that earthquakes of magnitude less than 4.0 do not contribute to the seismic hazard,
the mean rates of exceedance of magnitude 4.0 events from each of the source zones are:
Source zone 1:
= 102.126 0.699 (4.0)
(5.14)
Source zone 2:
= 102.537 0.798 (4.0)
(5.15)
Source zone 3:
= 103.801 1.021 (4.0)
(5.16)
Source zone 4:
= 103.002 0.96 (4.0)
(5.17)
Source zone 5:
= 102.654 0.761 (4.0)
(5.18)
Source zone 6:
= 102.536 0.72 (4.0)
(5.19)
37
5.9
Attenuation Relationship
Most of the earthquakes occurring in Nepal are considered to be interface events due to
subduction/collision of Indian plate beneath the Eurasian plate. Hence, in this research work
attenuation relationship suitable for subduction zone proposed by Youngs et. al. (1994) is used.
For the rock site it is expressed by the following relation:
ln(y) = 0.2418 + 1.414M + C1 + C2(10 M)3 + C3ln(rrup + 1.7818e0.554M) + 0.00607 H + 0.3846 ZT
(5.20)
Standard Deviation = C4 + C5M
(5.21)
Where, y is spectral acceleration in g, M is moment magnitude, rrup is closest distance to

rupture (km), H is depth (km) and ZT coefficient for source type which is 0 for interface event
and 1 for intraslab event. The coefficients C1, C2, C3, C4 and C5 are given in the table below:
Periods
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
PGA
0.0
0.0
-2.552
1.45
-0.1
0.075
1.275
0.0
-2.707
1.45
-0.1
0.1
1.188
-0.0011
-2.655
1.45
-0.1
0.2
0.722
-0.0027
-2.528
1.45
-0.1
0.3
0.246
-0.0036
-2.454
1.45
-0.1
0.4
-0.115
-0.0043
-2.401
1.45
-0.1
0.5
-0.4
-0.0048
-2.36
1.45
-0.1
0.75
-1.149
-0.0057
-2.286
1.45
-0.1
-1.736
-0.0064
-2.234
1.45
-0.1
1.5
-2.634
-0.0073
-2.160
1.5
-0.1
-3.328
-0.008
-2.107
1.55
-0.1
-4.511
-0.0089
-2.033
1.65
-0.1
Table 5.12: Coefficient for attenuation relations for rock site (after, Youngs et. al. 97)
38
Similarly, for soil site the attenuation relationship is given by the following equation:
ln(y) = -0.6687 + 1.438M + C1 + C2(10 M)3 + C3ln(R + 1.0978e0.617M) + 0.00648 H + 0.3846 ZT
(5.22)
Standard Deviation = C4 + C5M
(5.23)
Where, y, M, H and ZT are the same as defined above and the coefficients C1, C2, C3, C4 and C5
are shown in the table below:
Periods
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
PGA
-2.329
1.45
-0.1
0.075
2.4
-0.0019
-2.697
1.45
-0.1
0.1
2.516
-0.0019
-2.697
1.45
-0.1
0.2
1.549
-0.0019
-2.464
1.45
-0.1
0.3
0.793
-0.002
-2.327
1.45
-0.1
0.4
0.144
-0.002
-2.23
1.45
-0.1
0.5
-0.438
-0.0035
-2.14
1.45
-0.1
0.75
-1.704
-0.0048
-1.952
1.45
-0.1
-2.87
-0.0066
-1.785
1.45
-0.1
Table 5.13: Coefficient for attenuation relations for soil site (after, Youngs et. al. 97)
The standard deviation of the predicted parameter like peak ground acceleration and spectral
acceleration are calculated in order to account for uncertainty related with scatter of seismic
data and randomness in rupture of seismic sources. From the probability distribution of
particular ground motion parameter, the probability that this parameter Y exceeds a certain
value, y*, for an earthquake of a given magnitude, m, occurring at a distance, r, is given by:
P[Y>y*/m,r]=1-FY (y*)
(5.24)
39
Where, FY(y) is the value of the cumulative distribution function of Y at m and r. The value of
FY(y) depends on the probability distribution used to represent Y. In general, ground motion
parameters are usually assumed to be log normally distributed (the logarithm of the parameter
is normally distributed); however, the unbounded characteristics of that distribution can
attribute to a nonzero probability to unrealistic values of the ground motion parameters.
40
6.0 DATA INPUT

6.1
Crisis 2007 Program: A tool for Seismic Hazard Analysis
CRISIS 2007 is a computer program that computes seismic hazard using a probabilistic model
that considers the rates of occurrence, attenuation characteristics and geographical distribution
of earthquakes. Followings are main considerations made in this program in order to compute
seismic hazard:
6.2
Earthquake occurrence modeled as a Poissonian process

Earthquakes sources modeled as area sources.
Dynamic integration procedure is allowed for fast computation of hazard in extended
areas.
Youngs Attenuation models is used to compute PGA at considered site
Input Options
6.2.1 Input Maps

In this option, the name and the path of the map file and the cities file were entered as shown
in figure 6.1. Kathmandu valley map has been entered for the seismic hazard computations as
it is the study area of this research work. The map and cities information is a helpful visual
reference but has not any influence on the computations.
41
Figure 6.1: Map and cites file selection of Kathmandu Valley
6.2.2 Input Grid of Sites

This option allows to input the grid or list of sites for which seismic hazard will be computed.
Grid of sites: Compute for a grid, defined by its origin, longitude and latitude increments, and
number of lines in both directions. Hazard is computed at the nodes of this grid.
For the study, the grids of sites are given as follows table 6.1 and figure 6.2:
42
Longitude
Latitude
Origin
85
27.4
Degrees
Increment
0.1
0.1
Degrees
No. of Lines
Table 6.1: Grid of sites for the study area (Kathmandu Valley)
Figure 6.2: Sites of Computation of Hazard
6.2.3 Input Source Geometry

Third option: Source Geometry allows entering the geometry of each seismic source. Source
vertex is used to give the coordinates of the vertex of the active sources. All the coordinates of
the six sources taken has been input on the vertex for the seismic hazard calculations. Rupture
area parameters has been taken from the relation given by Wells and Coppersmith, Reverse
Fault for all the seismic sources as shown in figure 6.3.
43
Figure 6.3: Geometry of the Seismic Sources
6.2.4 Input Source Seismicity

This option allows entering the information about the seismicity of each source. Occurrence
model is selected as Poisson model and the parameters defining Mu has been calculated from
the relation given by Wells and Coppersmith.
For the Poisson model, Threshold magnitude (Mo) is taken as Mw = 4. Mean annual rate of
exceedance, value of beta and the parameters defining Mu has been calculated and is discussed
in section 5. Figure 6.4 gives the source seismicity data of the source 1, and the same
procedure is repeated for other five seismic sources.
44
Figure 6.4: Source Seismicity data of the Earthquake Sources
6.2.5 Input Attenuation Data

This option allows entering information about the attenuation relations to be used in the
hazard analysis. In general, an attenuation relation describes the probabilistic link between
earthquake magnitudes, source to site distance, and intensity.
The attenuation relation used for this study is taken which is given by Youngs et. al. (1997) and
this is the built-in attenuations models given by Crisis 2007. The additional parameters such as
fault location is taken as intraslab and the soil type as rock as shown in figure 6.5.
45
Figure 6.5: It shows the Built in attenuation models along with fault locations, soil type and
model properties.
6.2.6 Input Spectral Ordinates

This option allows entering the parameters for each spectral ordinate (or, in general, intensity
measure) for which seismic hazard will be computed. The total number of spectral ordinates is
the total number of different intensity measures for which hazard is to be computed.
Frequently, the different intensity measures refer to spectral ordinates for different structural
periods. In this case, spectral attenuation relations are needed.
The total number of spectral ordinates taken for the study is 10, the lower limit of intensity
level is taken as 1 and the upper limit of intensity level is taken as 2000 with unit gal. Actual
spectral ordinate is used for the control to move from one intensity measure to the other and
the values are taken as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 along with the values of structural period of
46
spectral ordinate 0, 0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.3, 0.5, 1, 2, 3, and 4 respectively. The total number of
levels of intensity for which seismic hazard will be computed is 20 as shown in figure 6.6
Figure 6.6: Intensities for each spectral ordinate
6.2.7 Input Global Parameters

This input option allows entering the information concerning the spatial integration procedure,
the fixed return periods for which map files are to be generated and the distance to be used for
M R disaggregation. The integration parameters, fixed return periods and the option for the
distance for deaggregation is shown in figure 6.7.
47
Figure 6.7: Global parameters (integrations parameters, fixed return periods and distance for
deaggregation)
48
7.0 RESULTS AND ANALYSIS

All the data were validated with no errors found, execution was proceeded and the following
results were obtained for the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Kathmandu
Valley.
7.1
Rock Site Condition
Figure 7.1: Seismic hazard map for the Kathmandu valley having 10 % probability of being
exceeded in 50 years (rock site condition) Maximum PGA 508 gal and Minimum PGA 425 gal
49
Figure 7.2: Uniform Hazard Spectra for the coordinates X = 85.41969, Y = 27.41038 for 10 % probability of being exceeded in 50 years
(rock site condition) Maximum PGA 508 gal
50
(rock site condition) Minimum PGA 425 gal
51
(rock site condition)
52
53
54
7.2
Soil Site Condition
Figure 7.7: Seismic hazard map for the Kathmandu valley having 10 % probability of being
exceeded in 50 years (Soil site condition) having Maximum PGA 730 gal and Minimum PGA
620 gal
55
(soil site condition) having Maximum PGA 730 gal
56
(soil site condition) having Minimum PGA 620 gal
57
Figure 7.10: Uniform Hazard Spectra for the coordinates X = 85.34357, Y = 27.51223 for 10 % probability of being exceeded in 50
years (soil site condition)
58
Figure 7.11: Uniform Hazard Spectra for the coordinates X = 85.25672, Y = 27.69128 for 10 % probability of being exceeded in 50
years (soil site condition)
59
(soil site condition)
60
8.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The accuracy of a PSHA depends on the accuracy with which uncertainty in earthquake size,
location, recurrence and effects can be characterized. Although models and procedures for
characterization of uncertainty of these parameters are available, they are based on data
collected over periods of time that, geologically, is very short. State of the art technique in
engineering judgment must be applied to the interpretations of PSHA results.
The paucity of seismic data in this region is big problem in calculating seismic hazard and risk.
The data are collected from available sources especially from the work of ISC, USGS and DMG,
Nepal.
The Kathmandu valley where urban settlement is highly concentrated incorporates very big
structures like apartments, industries, government corporations and offices, and important
buildings like hospitals, school buildings, and most importantly unplanned dwellings needs
seismic risk evaluation in order to make decisions, planning and seismic risk reduction process.
This work gives an idea on present seismic hazard scenario of the considered site. The PGA
value of 508 gal (0.51g) for rock site condition and 730 gal (0.74 g) for soil site condition
indicates that it is very vulnerable to future earthquakes. These values obtained from this
research work can be used in design of structures in the region.
The PGA values obtained for the different soil site condition from this research work is very
much similar to the PGA values given by GSHAP for the region.
Identification of seismic sources zone need to be reviewed and further research is
recommended for determining the Gutenberg Richter parameters (a, b) as it is highly
governing factor for the precise result in seismic hazard analysis.
Other limitation can be the selection of suitable attenuation relationship. We can develop our
own attenuation relationship for the particular region.
61
9.0 REFERENCES
1. Abrahamson N.A., State of the Practice of Seismic Hazard Evaluation, paper of Pacific
Gas and Electric Company, Mail Code N4C, PO Box 770000, San Francisco, CA 94177 USA
2. Bilham R. (2004), Historical Studies of Earthquakes in India, Annals of Geophysics, 1-26.
3. Bhattarai G. K. (2010). Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment and Ground Response
Analysis of Biratnagar Sub-Metropolitan City, Eastern Nepal, Thesis Submitted at
Department of Earthquake Engineering, Khwopa Engineering College, Bhaktapur.
4. Chitrakar G. R. and M. R., Pandey (1986). Historical Earthquakes of Nepal, Bull. Geol.
Soc. Nepal, 4, 7-8.
5. Cornell C.A.1968. Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society
of America. Vol58. No.5. pp.1583-1606.
6. Gardner J. K. and L. Knopoff (1974). Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern
California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian?, Bulletin of the Seismological Society
of America 64, 1,3631,367.
7. Gardner J. K. and L. Knopoff (1942). b Values for foreshocks and aftershocks in real and
simulated earthquake sequences, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.
72, No. 5, pp. 1663-1676.
8. Gupta I.D., 2002. The state of the art in Seismic hazard analysis, ISET Journal of
earthquake technology, paper no. 428, vol 39, no.4,2002,pp311-346.
9. International Seismological Center, data access, http://www.isc.ac.uk/.
10. Johnston, A.C. (1996b). Seismic moment assessment of earthquakes in stable continental
regions -II. Historic seismicity. Geophys. J. Int. 125, 639-678.
11. Khatiwada S. (2009). Construction of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map for Nepal, Thesis
Submitted at Department of Earthquake Engineering, Khwopa Engineering College,
Bhaktapur.
12. Kramer S.L. (2007), Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering, Pearson Education Inc.
13. Maskey P. N. (2005). Selection of Attenuation Laws for Estimation of Seismic Input in
Nepal. Journal of the Institute of Engineering Vol. 5, PP 75-85.
62
14. McGuire R. K., (2004).
Seismic Hazards and Risk Analysis, Oakland, Earthquake
Engineering Research Institute

15. National seismological centre, Department of Mines and Geology, Kathmandu, Past and
Historical Earthquake, http://www.seismonepal.gov.np/
16. Nepal National Building Code, NBC 105: 1994, Seismic Design of Buildings, Department
of Urban Development and Building Construction, Government of Nepal.
17. Ojha S., Bhattarai G.K. and Rajaure S. (2013). A Catalog for Nepal Himalaya Earthquakes
from 1255 to 2012 A.D., International Journal of Landslide and Environment, Vol. 1, No.
1, pp 5-6.
18. Pandey M. R., Chitrakar G.R., Kafle B, Sapkota S. N., Rajaure S., Gautam U. P., Seismic
Hazard Map of Nepal, September 2002, National Seismological Centre, Kathmandu
Nepal.
19. Parajuli Hari., Junji Kiyono, Yusuke Ono and Takahiro Tsutsumiuchi (2008). Design
Earthquake Ground Motions from Probabilistic Response Spectra: Case Study of Nepal,
Journal of Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering, Vol. 8, No. 4.
20. Raghu Kanth S.T.G., Iyengar R. N., 2006.Seismic hazard estimation for Mumbai city.
Current Science, Vol. 91, No. 11.
21. Reiter. 1990. Earthquake Hazard Analysis: Issues and Insights, Columbia University
Press, New York
22. Scordilis E.M. (2006). Empirical global relations converting MS and Mb to moment
.magnitude, Journal of Seismology, 10, 225-236.
23. Wells, D. L and Coppersmith, K. J. (1994), New empirical relationships among
magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area and surface displacement,
Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, Vol. 84, No. 4, pp. 974 1002.
24. Youngs, S.J. Chiou, W.J. Silva and J.R. Humphrey, Strong Motion Attenuation Relations
for Subduction Zone Earthquakes, Seismological Research Letters, Vo. 68, No. 1, pp-5873, January/February 1997.
63
10.z0 ANNEX 1
Earthquakes greater than Mw 5, from 1255 2012 A.D.
EVENTID
DATE
TIME
LAT
LON
AUTHOR
Mw
E. REGION
00001
00/00/1255
G.R. C / M. R. P
7.0
00002
00/00/1408
G.R. C / M. R. P
7.0
Lo
00003
6/00/1505
29.5
83
Roger_bilham
8.2
Mustang/Nepal
00004
9/00/1555
33.5
75.5
Roger_bilham
7.6
Sri Nagar
00005
00/00/1681
G.R. C / M. R. P
6.4
00006
7/00/1720
30
80
Roger_bilham
7.5
Uttar Pradesh
00007
9/00/1803
31.5
79
Roger_bilham
8.1
Uttar Pradesh
00008
00/00/1810
G.R. C / M. R. P
6.4
00009
6/27/1819
30.5
80.5
Norconsult
6.2
00010
8/00/1833
27.7
85.7
Roger_bilham
7.7
Nepal
00011
5/23/1866
27.7
85.3
G.R. C / M. R. P
7.0
Kathmandu
00012
1/9/1869
25.5
91.5
Norconsult
7.1
00013
3/00/1885
34.1
74.6
Roger_bilham
6.4
Sri Nagar
00014
6/08/1897
24.5
91
Norconsult
7.6
00015
4/00/1905
33
76
Roger_bilham
7.8
Kangra
00016
2/00/1906
31.5
77.5
Roger_bilham
6.4
Bashahr
00017
8/6/1908
30
83
Norconsult
6.4
00018
10/14/1911
11:24:00 PM
31
80.5
PAS
6.8
00019
3/6/1913
11:04:00 AM
30
83
PAS
6.4
00020
8/28/1916
6:39:42 AM
29.9
80.5
Roger_bilham
7.3
Uttaranchal
00021
7/8/1918
10:22:07 AM
24.5
91
PAS
7.6
00022
9/9/1923
10:03:43 PM
25.25
91
PAS
7.1
00023
10/8/1924
8:32:57 PM
30
90
PAS
6.5
00024
6/4/1926
6:50:58 AM
35
89.5
PAS
6.0
00025
7/00/1926
30.3
80
Roger_bilham
6.5
Uttaranchal
00026
6/2/1927
4:37:34 PM
23.5
81
PAS
6.5
64
EVENTID
DATE
TIME
LAT
LON
AUTHOR
Mw
E. REGION
00027
7/2/1930
9:03:42 PM
25.5
90
PAS
7.1
00028
6/18/1931
12:58:29 PM
30.5
84
PAS
5.8
00029
3/4/1932
11:20:48 PM
33.5
81
PAS
5.8
00030
3/27/1932
8:44:40 AM
24.5
92
PAS
5.8
00031
11/9/1932
6:30:09 PM
26.5
92
PAS
5.8
00032
3/6/1933
1:05:35 PM
26
90.5
PAS
5.8
00033
1/15/1934
8:43:18 AM
27.6
87.1
Roger_bilham
8.1
Nepal - Bihar
00034
10/19/1934
8:58:16 PM
34
82
PAS
5.8
00035
12/15/1934
1:57:37 AM
31.25
89.25
PAS
7.1
00036
1/3/1935
1:50:08 AM
30.5
88
PAS
6.5
00037
3/5/1935
10:15:53 PM
29.75
80.25
PAS
6.1
00038
3/21/1935
12:04:02 AM
24.25
89.5
PAS
6.2
00039
5/21/1935
4:22:31 AM
28.75
89.25
PAS
6.2
00040
2/11/1936
4:48:00 AM
27.5
87
PAS
5.8
00041
5/27/1936
6:19:19 AM
28.5
83.5
Roger_bilham/PAS
7.0
West Nepal
00042
10/20/1937
1:23:43 AM
31
78
PAS
5.8
00043
11/15/1937
9:37:34 PM
35
78
PAS
6.5
00044
1/29/1938
4:13:08 AM
27.5
87
PAS
5.8
00045
9/3/1940
2:40:32 PM
31
91.5
PAS
5.8
00046
10/4/1940
4:35:52 AM
30
92
PAS
6.1
00047
1/21/1941
12:41:48 PM
27
92
Roger_bilham/PAS
6.8
Shillong
00048
8/1/1941
3:48:00 AM
33
85.25
PAS
5.8
00049
10/17/1944
6:36:54 PM
31.5
83.5
PAS
6.8
00050
10/29/1944
12:11:32 AM
31.5
83.5
PAS
6.8
00051
6/4/1945
12:09:06 PM
30.3
80
Roger_bilham/PAS
6.5
Uttaranchal
00052
6/00/1945
32.8
76.1
Roger_bilham
6.3
Chamba
00053
7/00/1947
28.8
93.7
Roger_bilham
7.3
Assam
00054
8/00/1950
28.7
96.6
Roger_bilham
8.5
Assam-Tibet
00055
11/18/1951
9:35:47 AM
30.5
91
PAS
00058
2/18/1964
4:35:14 PM
27.4
91.18
ISC
5.5
65
EVENTID
DATE
TIME
LAT
LON
AUTHOR
Mw
E. REGION
00059
3/27/1964
9:16:04 PM
27.13
89.36
ISC
5.3
00060
4/13/1964
1:56:55 AM
27.52
90.17
ISC
5.5
00061
4/15/1964
6:37:45 AM
21.6
88.07
ISC
5.5
00062
5/24/1964
11:18:36 AM
30.04
82.18
ISC
5.4
00063
9/26/1964
3:59:26 PM
29.96
80.46
ISC
00064
10/6/1964
8:40:17 PM
29.4
80.98
ISC
5.5
00067
10/25/1964
10:42:48 AM
27.9
88.6
ISC
5.1
00068
11/9/1964
3:23:39 PM
29.53
86.04
ISC
5.4
00070
12/20/1964
12:45:20 AM
29.35
81.1
ISC
5.5
00071
1/12/1965
5:26:10 AM
27.4
87.84
ISC
00074
4/20/1965
7:28:42 PM
33.86
82.1
ISC
00075
6/1/1965
12:09:32 AM
28.59
83.06
ISC
5.5
00076
6/14/1965
4:50:23 AM
32.09
87.62
ISC
5.6
00078
8/3/1965
2:12:04 PM
33.31
91.13
ISC
5.5
00080
11/14/1965
11:33:45 PM
34.5
80.2
USCGS
5.1
00083
2/24/1966
1:36:16 PM
26.35
91.44
ISC
5.1
00084
3/6/1966
6:17:07 PM
31.49
80.5
ISC
6.1
00085
3/17/1966
10:57:57 PM
31.6
82.76
ISC
5.1
00089
6/27/1966
5:41:19 PM
29.71
80.89
ISC
6.1
00090
6/27/1966
10:22:10 PM
29.62
80.83
ISC
6.1
00091
8/5/1966
3:03:00 AM
32.76
79.61
ISC
5.5
00093
8/15/1966
12:24:41 PM
28.67
78.93
ISC
5.8
00094
10/20/1966
5:05:32 PM
33.55
78.7
ISC
5.1
00095
11/5/1966
9:46:22 PM
28.22
83.87
ISC
5.2
00096
11/7/1966
2:27:13 AM
33.94
80.89
ISC
5.1
00098
1/30/1967
11:48:54 AM
25.4
90.54
ISC
5.1
00099
2/00/1967
33.6
75.3
Roger_bilham
5.6
Anantnang
00100
3/2/1967
4:29:44 PM
28.7
86.38
ISC
5.5
00103
9/6/1967
6:32:16 AM
24
91.9
ISC
5.2
00104
9/15/1967
11:13:06 AM
27.42
91.86
ISC
66
EVENTID
DATE
TIME
LAT
LON
AUTHOR
Mw
E. REGION
00106
11/14/1967
8:34:47 PM
24.05
91.61
ISC
5.2
00107
12/18/1967
1:15:38 AM
29.46
81.71
ISC
5.3
00108
12/30/1967
5:56:28 AM
31.67
86.73
ISC
5.3
00109
1/5/1968
10:37:19 AM
30.41
79.25
ISC
5.3
00111
2/11/1968
7:59:00 PM
34.15
78.7
ISC
5.4
00112
5/27/1968
12:39:50 AM
29.76
80.51
ISC
5.2
00113
5/31/1968
5:20:41 AM
29.91
79.92
ISC
5.3
00114
6/12/1968
10:01:31 AM
24.83
91.94
ISC
5.5
00115
8/18/1968
2:42:22 PM
26.42
90.62
ISC
5.4
00116
10/28/1968
7:23:12 PM
27.57
86.03
ISC
5.2
00117
12/27/1968
12:04:03 AM
24.12
91.61
ISC
5.4
00118
3/3/1969
4:44:53 AM
30.04
79.84
ISC
5.4
00119
3/5/1969
9:25:44 AM
29.46
81.02
ISC
5.3
00120
6/1/1969
2:06:34 PM
25.72
91.77
ISC
5.1
00121
6/22/1969
6:47:25 PM
30.5
79.4
ISC
5.5
00123
11/5/1969
4:09:06 AM
27.66
90.24
ISC
5.3
00124
11/11/1969
8:49:56 AM
26.6
91.8
ISC
5.3
00125
12/5/1969
1:30:47 PM
29.13
80.95
ISC
5.2
00127
2/12/1970
10:52:28 PM
29.24
81.57
ISC
5.5
00129
2/26/1970
8:14:09 AM
27.62
85.7
ISC
5.3
00131
7/21/1970
5:35:50 PM
27.94
84.81
ISC
5.1
00132
7/25/1970
10:16:40 PM
25.72
88.58
ISC
5.4
00134
8/28/1970
7:38:21 AM
24.78
91.55
ISC
5.2
00136
2/2/1971
5:00:02 PM
23.714
91.662
ISC
5.6
00137
5/3/1971
9:40:53 PM
30.79
84.328
ISC
5.5
00138
6/6/1971
2:21:43 AM
28.041
85.585
NEIS
5.2
00141
10/24/1971
4:24:15 PM
28.299
87.191
ISC
5.1
00142
10/29/1971
9:05:05 PM
34.132
86.436
ISC
5.2
00144
12/4/1971
6:26:46 AM
27.925
87.946
ISC
5.5
00145
2/4/1972
11:07:37 AM
30.345
84.469
ISC
5.4
67
EVENTID
DATE
TIME
LAT
LON
AUTHOR
Mw
E. REGION
00146
2/20/1972
3:48:27 PM
34.47
80.375
ISC
5.1
00147
3/15/1972
8:29:18 PM
30.526
84.432
ISC
5.4
00148
4/8/1972
1:10:08 AM
29.666
89.417
NEIS
5.1
00149
4/21/1972
5:50:59 AM
34.985
81.149
ISC
5.1
00150
4/28/1972
10:31:49 AM
31.337
84.922
ISC
5.3
00151
7/22/1972
3:12:40 PM
31.377
91.414
ISC
5.6
00152
8/17/1972
7:53:30 PM
30.747
78.421
ISC
5.5
00153
8/21/1972
12:34:21 AM
27.228
88.023
NEIS
5.4
00154
9/6/1972
5:15:11 AM
32.493
78.511
ISC
5.3
00157
1/2/1973
7:17:43 PM
31.173
88.085
ISC
5.4
00160
3/22/1973
9:20:14 AM
28.118
87.149
ISC
5.3
00163
8/1/1973
11:22:46 PM
29.589
89.168
ISC
5.2
00164
9/8/1973
4:03:36 AM
33.295
86.822
ISC
5.7
00166
10/16/1973
1:25:17 PM
28.358
82.989
ISC
5.3
00168
11/21/1973
10:46:58 PM
34.626
81.111
ISC
5.4
00170
2/24/1974
8:08:39 AM
30.965
78.469
ISC
5.2
00171
3/3/1974
12:49:30 PM
30.745
86.318
ISC
5.6
00175
3/24/1974
7:32:52 AM
27.664
86.003
ISC
5.6
00181
9/27/1974
11:37:55 AM
28.594
85.512
ISC
5.7
00182
10/13/1974
4:18:45 PM
34.761
87.227
ISC
5.4
00185
12/23/1974
6:21:17 AM
29.324
81.384
ISC
5.5
00189
1/19/1975
1:04:39 AM
32.385
78.496
ISC
6.3
00191
1/31/1975
10:26:20 AM
28.087
84.766
ISC
5.3
00194
4/24/1975
12:28:51 AM
27.438
87.044
ISC
5.2
00196
6/24/1975
9:50:32 AM
27.742
87.497
ISC
5.1
00199
8/27/1975
11:53:04 PM
34.797
80.432
ISC
5.1
00200
9/6/1975
4:33:54 AM
29.214
81.948
ISC
5.4
00201
9/8/1975
9:14:45 AM
31.587
84.726
ISC
5.2
00204
11/21/1975
11:17:16 PM
26.957
86.54
ISC
5.2
00205
11/26/1975
3:58:07 AM
28.148
87.801
ISC
5.3
68
EVENTID
DATE
TIME
LAT
LON
AUTHOR
Mw
E. REGION
00206
12/28/1975
8:38:57 AM
32.147
87.671
ISC
5.2
00210
5/10/1976
3:22:19 AM
29.327
81.458
ISC
5.5
00212
6/23/1976
12:44:00 PM
21.18
88.621
ISC
5.3
00213
7/12/1976
5:24:51 PM
34.254
85.629
ISC
5.1
00215
7/23/1976
2:46:32 AM
31.722
83.683
ISC
5.1
00218
9/14/1976
4:49:03 PM
29.808
89.568
ISC
5.6
00219
10/23/1976
9:29:54 PM
28.63
86.238
NEIS
5.4
00220
1/6/1977
2:10:44 AM
31.246
87.979
ISC
5.3
00223
2/19/1977
4:13:16 PM
34.628
81.291
ISC
5.4
00224
2/19/1977
8:54:06 PM
31.797
78.432
ISC
5.6
00225
3/16/1977
1:34:57 AM
31.303
89.378
ISC
5.3
00226
3/27/1977
6:15:47 AM
32.672
78.661
ISC
5.4
00227
4/20/1977
10:56:38 AM
30.489
79.451
ISC
5.2
00231
11/4/1977
5:40:00 AM
29.504
81.3
ISC
5.1
00232
11/18/1977
10:20:50 AM
32.648
88.389
ISC
5.9
00237
2/10/1978
9:45:03 AM
28.033
84.698
ISC
5.5
00241
4/4/1978
4:28:25 AM
32.983
82.255
ISC
5.7
00245
8/8/1978
11:11:47 PM
32.268
83.1
ISC
5.4
00247
8/15/1978
8:33:28 AM
31.321
84.664
ISC
5.1
00251
10/4/1978
3:16:50 AM
27.822
85.935
ISC
5.5
00252
10/14/1978
7:57:40 AM
27.656
87.328
ISC
5.1
00254
11/30/1978
5:19:21 PM
32.718
85.67
ISC
5.2
00255
12/7/1978
10:00:12 PM
32.685
85.967
ISC
5.2
00261
1/28/1979
2:05:15 AM
24.874
91.02
ISC
5.2
00271
5/20/1979
12:53:40 AM
29.932
80.27
ISC
5.9
00274
6/19/1979
2:56:11 PM
26.742
87.482
ISC
5.5
00285
12/28/1979
6:25:27 PM
30.821
78.575
ISC
5.3
00288
2/20/1980
8:27:58 AM
32.89
90.225
ISC
5.1
00289
2/22/1980
1:08:49 PM
30.552
88.646
ISC
5.9
00291
3/13/1980
10:30:30 PM
34.29
87.822
ISC
5.2
69
EVENTID
DATE
TIME
LAT
LON
AUTHOR
Mw
E. REGION
00292
6/11/1980
3:11:20 AM
25.794
90.311
ISC
5.2
00293
6/22/1980
7:52:11 AM
30.133
81.765
ISC
5.4
00294
6/24/1980
12:33:01 PM
32.996
88.548
ISC
5.4
00295
7/29/1980
5:13:52 PM
29.629
81.091
Roger_bilham/ISC
6.5
W. Nepal
00299
10/8/1980
11:57:14 AM
31.426
87.718
ISC
5.3
00301
11/18/1980
9:18:55 PM
29.55
85.179
ISC
5.3
00302
11/19/1980
1:59:45 AM
27.402
88.797
ISC
6.1
00308
2/9/1981
6:04:48 AM
27.199
89.761
ISC
5.2
00309
3/19/1981
10:45:39 AM
26.293
90.475
ISC
5.1
00310
3/26/1981
3:26:29 PM
22.347
89.076
ISC
5.2
00312
5/13/1981
12:48:10 AM
32.578
82.358
ISC
5.3
00313
5/15/1981
5:29:01 AM
29.464
81.926
ISC
5.4
00314
5/28/1981
10:09:51 AM
31.829
78.436
ISC
5.5
00315
6/9/1981
2:50:42 PM
34.514
91.424
ISC
5.5
00321
8/31/1981
6:55:45 PM
34.601
78.989
ISC
5.1
00325
11/21/1981
1:39:07 PM
29.526
89.117
ISC
5.1
00327
1/22/1982
11:00:48 PM
30.891
89.867
ISC
5.5
00329
1/23/1982
8:22:29 AM
31.675
82.284
ISC
6.1
00338
7/6/1982
2:30:03 AM
25.881
90.31
ISC
5.3
00342
8/31/1982
9:13:25 PM
25.385
91.46
ISC
5.3
00351
11/18/1982
3:21:00 PM
26.376
91.753
ISC
5.1
00357
12/30/1982
7:26:03 PM
26.009
91.691
ISC
5.2
00358
1/27/1983
12:06:53 AM
29.042
81.343
ISC
5.2
00361
2/27/1983
2:09:25 PM
32.602
78.568
ISC
5.5
00364
5/31/1983
4:11:56 AM
34.593
79.665
ISC
5.3
00372
11/5/1983
5:38:40 PM
33.92
89.945
ISC
5.4
00381
2/19/1984
11:46:15 AM
29.843
80.544
ISC
5.4
00382
3/14/1984
4:27:05 PM
29.178
81.12
ISC
5.3
00383
3/14/1984
9:07:56 PM
34.23
79.631
ISC
5.4
00385
4/11/1984
6:29:37 AM
34.759
79.671
ISC
5.1
70
EVENTID
DATE
TIME
LAT
LON
AUTHOR
Mw
E. REGION
00386
4/15/1984
11:10:27 AM
31.747
82.244
ISC
5.3
00388
4/27/1984
8:32:08 PM
33.676
89.45
NEIS
5.2
00390
5/18/1984
5:53:49 AM
29.52
81.793
ISC
5.8
00391
5/21/1984
10:34:40 AM
23.657
91.508
ISC
5.5
00395
8/6/1984
5:18:02 AM
32.141
88.019
ISC
5.1
00398
9/30/1984
7:20:33 PM
25.436
91.507
ISC
5.3
00402
11/18/1984
2:03:55 PM
28.674
83.319
ISC
5.6
00407
1/7/1985
1:28:08 PM
27.14
91.958
ISC
5.6
00409
1/30/1985
10:49:49 PM
30.916
85.441
ISC
5.1
00411
2/15/1985
8:11:30 AM
34.352
82.493
ISC
5.2
00417
6/15/1985
12:16:33 PM
34.634
82.994
ISC
5.6
00434
12/25/1985
7:50:51 PM
32.13
89.712
ISC
5.1
00435
1/6/1986
12:31:42 AM
27.853
85.322
ISC
5.1
00437
1/10/1986
9:53:23 AM
28.653
86.563
ISC
5.7
00442
2/19/1986
9:17:35 AM
25.104
91.13
ISC
5.5
00444
3/2/1986
6:39:16 PM
32.424
89.289
ISC
5.1
00450
4/13/1986
10:44:19 PM
32.628
85.302
ISC
5.2
00453
6/20/1986
12:46:51 PM
31.216
86.824
ISC
00457
7/6/1986
7:30:13 AM
34.446
80.197
ISC
5.9
00459
7/16/1986
4:51:54 PM
31.051
78.002
ISC
5.8
00461
7/28/1986
2:13:35 AM
33.554
87.889
ISC
5.1
00462
8/20/1986
6:54:25 AM
34.565
91.642
ISC
5.7
00466
9/9/1986
1:37:47 AM
31.54
85.046
ISC
5.6
00467
9/11/1986
6:18:38 AM
32.563
78.491
ISC
5.1
00470
1/19/1987
8:21:09 PM
28.196
83.6
ISC
5.5
00475
4/18/1987
7:45:22 PM
22.528
79.241
ISC
5.1
00479
6/6/1987
2:28:44 PM
30.362
79.117
ISC
5.2
00482
8/9/1987
4:31:15 AM
29.466
83.739
ISC
5.7
00486
9/25/1987
11:14:37 PM
29.841
90.367
ISC
5.4
00487
9/27/1987
3:55:28 AM
34.139
80.659
ISC
5.1
71
EVENTID
DATE
TIME
LAT
LON
AUTHOR
Mw
E. REGION
00490
11/3/1987
5:57:59 PM
33.129
86.853
ISC
5.2
00496
2/6/1988
10:03:02 PM
24.668
91.562
ISC
00507
5/15/1988
1:32:18 AM
29.76
80.435
ISC
5.2
00509
5/30/1988
10:53:59 AM
33.422
88.598
ISC
5.1
00511
6/12/1988
8:15:40 PM
28.7
82.424
ISC
5.1
00515
7/5/1988
2:59:02 PM
28.114
91.242
ISC
5.1
00519
8/20/1988
9:42:24 AM
26.72
86.626
ISC
6.4
00525
9/27/1988
1:47:27 PM
27.192
88.367
ISC
5.3
00528
10/29/1988
3:49:58 AM
27.866
85.638
ISC
5.7
00530
11/5/1988
1:11:39 PM
34.352
91.846
ISC
00536
12/20/1988
5:16:42 PM
27.66
91.121
ISC
5.2
00539
2/3/1989
7:19:14 AM
30.187
89.944
ISC
5.6
00544
4/9/1989
6:43:26 AM
29.113
90.022
ISC
5.4
00548
5/22/1989
1:26:48 AM
27.381
87.858
ISC
5.3
00550
6/12/1989
10:48:29 AM
21.834
89.775
ISC
5.9
00556
1/9/1990
2:53:32 PM
28.154
88.109
ISC
5.9
00561
2/22/1990
2:17:45 PM
29.14
90.021
ISC
5.2
00571
5/20/1990
1:06:10 PM
28.449
83.224
ISC
5.1
00578
9/21/1990
9:52:03 PM
29.985
79.907
ISC
5.4
00581
10/14/1990
11:54:35 AM
30.802
86.364
ISC
5.1
00583
12/20/1990
9:16:16 PM
28.158
82.879
ISC
5.2
00585
2/2/1991
6:37:57 AM
25.508
91.171
ISC
5.3
00602
5/27/1991
2:12:15 PM
29.495
80.28
ISC
5.2
00613
9/26/1991
5:41:31 PM
25.591
90.267
ISC
5.1
00616
10/19/1991
7:44:02 AM
30.77
78.791
Roger bilham/ISC
6.8
Uttarkashi
00619
12/9/1991
9:46:34 PM
29.512
81.611
ISC
5.8
00621
12/23/1991
7:08:15 AM
33.898
88.887
ISC
5.5
00632
4/4/1992
10:37:30 AM
28.12
87.962
ISC
5.2
00644
6/2/1992
6:47:36 PM
28.938
81.904
ISC
5.5
00648
7/9/1992
1:30:58 PM
21.046
90.024
ISC
5.5
72
EVENTID
DATE
TIME
LAT
LON
AUTHOR
Mw
E. REGION
00650
7/30/1992
10:52:39 PM
29.566
90.18
ISC
00655
8/24/1992
10:16:52 PM
34.679
80.177
ISC
5.2
00661
12/12/1992
2:21:55 AM
25.475
91.388
ISC
5.3
00662
12/22/1992
7:02:45 AM
34.548
88.056
ISC
5.3
00663
1/2/1993
11:43:36 AM
29.153
81.127
ISC
5.1
00668
1/18/1993
11:07:48 AM
30.844
90.378
ISC
5.9
00670
2/15/1993
8:29:29 PM
25.892
87.511
ISC
5.2
00675
3/20/1993
7:53:42 PM
29.027
87.328
ISC
5.9
00688
7/6/1993
8:44:38 AM
31.985
82.277
ISC
5.1
00698
10/20/1993
7:33:03 AM
28.691
82.246
ISC
5.4
00716
7/17/1994
7:48:12 PM
29.279
81.37
ISC
5.2
00717
7/23/1994
12:29:03 AM
31.097
86.601
ISC
5.3
00729
12/8/1994
8:39:09 AM
30.665
79.619
ISC
5.1
00758
7/30/1995
12:23:33 AM
30.246
88.21
ISC
5.1
00770
10/21/1995
8:33:39 AM
31.386
78.96
NEIC
5.2
00791
1/26/1996
10:51:20 AM
30.875
91.509
ISC
5.3
00805
4/26/1996
4:23:07 AM
27.835
87.8
ISC
5.3
00816
7/3/1996
7:52:22 AM
30.106
88.191
ISC
5.8
00833
9/25/1996
3:26:41 PM
27.602
88.804
ISC
5.2
00857
12/30/1996
7:46:53 AM
27.495
86.769
ISC
5.1
00859
1/5/1997
5:08:34 PM
29.874
80.565
ISC
5.6
00862
1/12/1997
7:11:05 AM
26.53
91.25
BJI
5.1
00867
1/31/1997
6:35:18 AM
27.989
85.205
ISC
5.5
00884
5/15/1997
2:09:36 PM
34.261
89.867
ISC
5.1
00885
5/21/1997
6:50:27 PM
23.091
80.082
ISC
00897
7/18/1997
3:00:33 AM
26.826
91.797
ISC
5.2
00918
10/30/1997
5:18:13 AM
29.542
89.727
ISC
5.4
00919
11/3/1997
9:59:04 AM
29.036
85.392
ISC
5.6
00922
11/9/1997
12:01:35 AM
33.713
88.344
ISC
5.4
00936
11/27/1997
5:33:22 PM
27.56
87.308
ISC
5.3
73
EVENTID
DATE
TIME
LAT
LON
AUTHOR
Mw
E. REGION
00952
2/22/1998
8:26:50 PM
28.497
85.513
ISC
5.1
00982
6/27/1998
4:52:05 PM
27.683
85.688
ISC
5.1
00983
7/8/1998
9:32:56 PM
27.322
91.065
ISC
5.4
00985
7/20/1998
6:54:37 AM
30.175
88.245
ISC
5.5
00995
9/3/1998
5:43:02 AM
27.863
86.95
ISC
5.8
01014
11/26/1998
10:39:01 PM
27.692
87.86
ISC
5.4
01027
3/28/1999
11:29:58 AM
30.511
79.421
Roger bilham/ISC
6.4
Chamoli
01050
7/22/1999
11:09:19 PM
21.617
91.896
ISC
5.5
01051
8/1/1999
3:50:10 AM
28.369
86.789
NEIC
5.5
01055
8/28/1999
10:33:32 PM
22.915
89.795
NDI
5.2
01057
9/5/1999
7:55:13 AM
28.067
87.527
NDI
5.2
01061
9/20/1999
2:38:35 AM
27.241
87.978
NDI
5.3
01064
10/5/1999
4:41:06 PM
26.26
91.926
NDI
5.5
01106
6/17/2000
9:16:27 PM
32
78.408
ISC
5.1
01144
3/5/2001
7:08:26 AM
34.258
86.86
ISC
5.5
01164
4/28/2001
4:45:16 AM
28.766
87.131
ISC
5.5
01184
7/16/2001
2:22:06 AM
28.148
84.872
ISC
5.3
01186
7/26/2001
11:43:47 AM
21.327
79.671
DMN
5.3
01200
11/6/2001
5:15:34 AM
34.13
79.716
ISC
5.1
01201
11/6/2001
9:56:25 AM
27.393
91.966
ISC
5.4
01205
11/27/2001
4:39:47 AM
29.691
81.716
ISC
5.7
01207
12/2/2001
2:01:28 PM
27.218
88.179
ISC
5.3
01226
3/6/2002
6:57:27 AM
22.345
79.212
DMN
5.2
01257
6/4/2002
8:03:33 AM
30.566
81.42
ISC
5.6
01278
8/31/2002
10:21:13 AM
29.878
88.055
ISC
5.3
01316
1/16/2003
8:13:12 PM
29.959
88.109
ISC
5.3
01334
3/25/2003
8:28:21 AM
27.256
89.379
ISC
5.1
01347
5/27/2003
9:19:18 PM
30.556
79.337
ISC
5.3
01360
7/7/2003
10:10:14 AM
34.589
89.503
ISC
5.5
01406
2/10/2004
9:28:57 AM
32.614
83.262
ISC
5.1
74
EVENTID
DATE
TIME
LAT
LON
AUTHOR
Mw
E. REGION
01418
3/6/2004
5:39:03 PM
33.243
91.925
ISC
5.3
01419
3/7/2004
10:19:54 PM
31.65
91.221
ISC
5.5
01423
3/27/2004
5:03:16 PM
33.989
89.182
ISC
6.1
01478
10/26/2004
10:29:33 AM
31.036
81.082
ISC
01499
2/8/2005
12:47:14 PM
27.711
86.051
ISC
5.1
01505
3/26/2005
4:52:17 PM
28.194
87.861
ISC
5.1
01510
4/7/2005
4:16:29 PM
30.517
83.655
ISC
01538
8/20/2005
3:20:03 AM
31.277
88.086
ISC
5.3
01556
10/31/2005
3:35:12 PM
29.719
81.752
ISC
5.1
01557
10/31/2005
8:16:03 PM
28.496
84.901
ISC
5.3
01566
12/14/2005
2:23:37 PM
30.515
79.25
ISC
5.5
01577
2/3/2006
5:52:53 PM
27.289
86.397
ISC
5.1
01580
2/14/2006
7:55:24 AM
27.387
88.417
ISC
5.5
01582
2/15/2006
5:17:05 PM
33.661
81.329
ISC
5.1
01585
2/23/2006
7:19:37 AM
26.958
91.712
ISC
5.6
01596
4/19/2006
10:48:52 AM
31.586
90.446
ISC
5.4
01597
5/5/2006
3:29:43 PM
29.48
80.906
ISC
5.1
01609
7/9/2006
11:39:49 PM
32.372
86.661
NDI
5.1
01650
2/25/2007
11:34:19 PM
33.152
90.614
ISC
5.3
01667
5/5/2007
7:08:38 AM
34.269
82.034
ISC
5.9
01672
5/20/2007
6:32:50 AM
27.334
88.27
ISC
5.2
01688
7/22/2007
9:26:18 AM
30.87
78.288
ISC
5.3
01698
8/11/2007
8:14:43 AM
27.388
87.733
ISC
5.2
01735
1/9/2008
1:25:52 PM
32.404
85.255
ISC
6.3
01788
7/26/2008
9:30:28 PM
24.743
90.513
ISC
5.1
01792
8/5/2008
4:13:50 PM
33.18
91.995
ISC
5.3
01801
8/25/2008
10:21:25 AM
30.628
83.358
ISC
5.1
01802
8/25/2008
3:02:15 PM
31.061
83.652
ISC
6.1
01808
9/4/2008
7:07:18 PM
30.242
80.382
ISC
5.3
01817
10/6/2008
1:14:53 PM
29.845
90.379
ISC
6.1
75
EVENTID
DATE
TIME
LAT
LON
AUTHOR
Mw
E. REGION
01841
12/8/2008
5:35:05 AM
29.99
82.085
ISC
5.5
01875
4/1/2009
8:43:42 PM
33.685
82.459
ISC
5.3
01897
6/4/2009
3:42:13 AM
32.766
81.672
ISC
5.3
01908
7/24/2009
7:11:28 AM
31.169
85.963
ISC
01923
9/21/2009
5:24:06 AM
27.369
91.46
ISC
6.1
01932
10/25/2009
11:31:40 PM
34.878
80.349
ISC
5.2
01939
11/7/2009
8:17:34 AM
29.539
86.045
ISC
5.8
01955
12/13/2009
11:11:02 AM
22.018
91.774
ISC
5.4
01968
2/26/2010
12:01:58 AM
28.507
86.776
ISC
5.7
01973
3/15/2010
11:26:11 PM
30.543
81.919
ISC
5.1
01975
3/18/2010
8:47:52 AM
34.343
81.679
ISC
5.1
02020
10/7/2010
3:25:44 AM
33.565
90.845
ISC
5.1
02025
10/17/2010
2:49:57 AM
28.602
85.679
ISC
5.2
02035
11/30/2010
1:38:22 AM
29.797
90.317
ISC
5.6
02042
12/29/2010
10:24:15 AM
30.875
86.517
ISC
5.5
02070
3/18/2011
9:27:49 PM
31.209
81.337
DMN
5.2
02078
4/4/2011
10:54:33 AM
29.698
80.754
NEIC
5.8
02080
4/9/2011
8:16:14 PM
32.099
81.988
DMN
5.5
02086
4/19/2011
12:21:17 AM
34.29
89.58
NEIC
5.3
02104
6/20/2011
12:36:26 PM
30.61
79.338
NEIC
5.2
02109
6/23/2011
12:00:39 PM
23.76
91.03
BKK
5.1
02117
8/1/2011
1:27:23 AM
33.739
87.574
NEIC
5.4
Sikkim - Nepal
02131
9/18/2011
6:59:10 PM
27.73
88.155
NEIC
6.9
Border
02147
11/19/2011
9:52:38 PM
31.301
90.761
DMN
5.1
02150
12/1/2011
11:55:09 AM
31.841
83.812
NEIC
5.4
02152
12/22/2011
9:16:50 PM
31.92
86.322
NEIC
5.1
02153
12/24/2011
1:57:41 AM
32.458
81.953
DMN
5.5
02155
12/28/2011
11:19:22 AM
31.188
79.59
DMN
5.5
02168
2/9/2012
12:10:18 AM
30.979
78.323
NEIC
5.4
76
EVENTID
DATE
TIME
LAT
LON
AUTHOR
Mw
E. REGION
02171
2/17/2012
2:12:50 PM
32.373
82.833
NEIC
5.5
02176
3/7/2012
1:37:02 PM
34.23
81.99
GFZ
5.1
02184
3/27/2012
3:03:46 AM
26.086
87.761
NEIC
5.3
02187
3/29/2012
5:06:18 PM
29.31
85.67
BKK
5.5
02199
4/30/2012
1:16:24 AM
24.81
89.032
DMN
5.5
02207
5/27/2012
2:43:08 PM
30.799
83.47
MOS
5.1
02214
6/9/2012
11:29:01 PM
28.4
84.126
NEIC
5.1
02219
7/3/2012
10:53:14 PM
29.914
88.011
NEIC
5.2
02225
7/22/2012
2:58:17 AM
29.951
88.041
NEIC
5.2
02232
8/23/2012
11:44:10 AM
28.47
82.69
NEIC
5.3
02245
10/8/2012
12:35:07 AM
31.832
78.444
NEIC
5.2
02250
10/18/2012
11:59:19 PM
23.84
81.24
GFZ
5.3
02273
12/27/2012
11:38:41 AM
31.953
81.902
DMN
5.2
BKK
Thai Meteorological Department
(THAILAND)
DMN Department of Mines and Geology, Ministry of Industry of Nepal
(NEPAL)
GFZ
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (Germany)
ISC
International Seismological Centre
MOS
Geophysical Survey of Russian Academy of Sciences
(RUSSIA)
NDI
India Meteorological Department
(INDIA)
NEIC
National Earthquake Information Center
(U.S.A)
NEIS
National Earthquake Information Service
(U.S.A)
PAS
California Institute of Technology
(U.S.A)
USCGS United States Coast and Geodetic Survey
(U.S.A)
(UNITED KINGDOM)
77
11.0 ANNEX 2
Coordinates
PGA (gal)
Site Condition
Remarks
X = 85.41969, Y = 27.41038
508
Rock
Maximum PGA in the Valley
X = 85.5462, Y = 27.78348
425
Rock
Minimum PGA in the Valley
X = 85.34357, Y = 27.51438
451
Rock
X = 85.2578, Y = 27.70843
435
Rock
X = 85.44327, Y = 27.69771
430
Rock
X = 85.4154, Y = 27.41038
730
Soil
Maximum PGA in the Valley
X = 85.56228, Y = 27.76632
620
Soil
Minimum PGA in the Valley
X = 85.34357, Y = 27.51223
702
Soil
X = 85.42612, Y = 27.7213
635
Soil
X = 85.25672, Y = 27.69128
643
Soil
Table 11.1: Different PGA for both rock and soil site condition of the Kathmandu valley.
Intensity (gal) versus Exceedance rate for different coordinates stated above for both rock and
soil site condition is given in below tables.
78
X=85.41969, Y=27.41038 (Rock site condition)

Intensity (gal)
Exceedance rate (1/year for intensity at 0 sec)
1.00E+00
1.21E+00
1.49E+00
1.03E+00
2.23E+00
8.66E-01
3.32E+00
7.09E-01
4.95E+00
5.66E-01
7.39E+00
4.40E-01
1.10E+01
3.33E-01
1.65E+01
2.44E-01
2.45E+01
1.73E-01
3.66E+01
1.18E-01
5.46E+01
7.70E-02
8.15E+01
4.77E-02
1.22E+02
2.79E-02
1.81E+02
1.52E-02
2.71E+02
7.56E-03
4.04E+02
3.40E-03
6.02E+02
1.35E-03
8.99E+02
4.54E-04
1.34E+03
1.21E-04
2.00E+03
2.09E-05
Table 11.2: Intensity (gal) versus Exceedance rate for coordinates X=85.41969, Y=27.41038
79
X=85.5462, Y=27.78348 (Rock site condition)

Intensity (gal)
1.00E+00
1.21E+00
1.49E+00
1.03E+00
2.23E+00
8.62E-01
3.32E+00
7.03E-01
4.95E+00
5.59E-01
7.39E+00
4.33E-01
1.10E+01
3.25E-01
1.65E+01
2.36E-01
2.45E+01
1.65E-01
3.66E+01
1.11E-01
5.46E+01
7.04E-02
8.15E+01
4.23E-02
1.22E+02
2.36E-02
1.81E+02
1.22E-02
2.71E+02
5.66E-03
4.04E+02
2.33E-03
6.02E+02
8.17E-04
8.99E+02
2.30E-04
1.34E+03
4.35E-05
2.00E+03
3.49E-06
Table 11.3: Intensity (gal) versus Exceedance rate for coordinates X=85.5462, Y=27.78348.
80
X = 85.34357, Y = 27.51438 (Rock site condition)

Intensity (gal)
1.00E+00
1.21E+00
1.49E+00
1.03E+00
2.23E+00
8.64E-01
3.32E+00
7.06E-01
4.95E+00
5.63E-01
7.39E+00
4.39E-01
1.10E+01
3.32E-01
1.65E+01
2.44E-01
2.45E+01
1.73E-01
3.66E+01
1.18E-01
5.46E+01
7.70E-02
8.15E+01
4.76E-02
1.22E+02
2.76E-02
1.81E+02
1.49E-02
2.71E+02
7.33E-03
4.04E+02
3.24E-03
6.02E+02
1.26E-03
8.99E+02
4.09E-04
1.34E+03
1.03E-04
2.00E+03
1.56E-05
Table 11.4: Intensity (gal) versus Exceedance rate for coordinates X = 85.34357, Y = 27.51438.
81

Intensity (gal)
1.00E+00
1.20E+00
1.49E+00
1.02E+00
2.23E+00
8.52E-01
3.32E+00
6.93E-01
4.95E+00
5.51E-01
7.39E+00
4.27E-01
1.10E+01
3.23E-01
1.65E+01
2.37E-01
2.45E+01
1.68E-01
3.66E+01
1.15E-01
5.46E+01
7.48E-02
8.15E+01
4.61E-02
1.22E+02
2.66E-02
1.81E+02
1.41E-02
2.71E+02
6.82E-03
4.04E+02
2.92E-03
6.02E+02
1.08E-03
8.99E+02
3.28E-04
1.34E+03
7.25E-05
2.00E+03
7.78E-06
82

Intensity (gal)
1.00E+00
1.21E+00
1.49E+00
1.04E+00
2.23E+00
8.67E-01
3.32E+00
7.09E-01
4.95E+00
5.66E-01
7.39E+00
4.41E-01
1.10E+01
3.34E-01
1.65E+01
2.45E-01
2.45E+01
1.73E-01
3.66E+01
1.17E-01
5.46E+01
7.54E-02
8.15E+01
4.58E-02
1.22E+02
2.60E-02
1.81E+02
1.36E-02
2.71E+02
6.42E-03
4.04E+02
2.70E-03
6.02E+02
9.78E-04
8.99E+02
2.89E-04
1.34E+03
6.08E-05
2.00E+03
5.89E-06
83
X = 85.4154, Y = 27.41038 (Soil site condition)

Intensity (gal)
1.00E+00
1.36E+00
1.49E+00
1.19E+00
2.23E+00
1.02E+00
3.32E+00
8.52E-01
4.95E+00
6.96E-01
7.39E+00
5.54E-01
1.10E+01
4.30E-01
1.65E+01
3.25E-01
2.45E+01
2.38E-01
3.66E+01
1.68E-01
5.46E+01
1.14E-01
8.15E+01
7.41E-02
1.22E+02
4.57E-02
1.81E+02
2.65E-02
2.71E+02
1.43E-02
4.04E+02
7.08E-03
6.02E+02
3.15E-03
8.99E+02
1.23E-03
1.34E+03
4.07E-04
2.00E+03
1.06E-04
84

Intensity (gal)
1.00E+00
1.36E+00
1.49E+00
1.19E+00
2.23E+00
1.02E+00
3.32E+00
8.51E-01
4.95E+00
6.93E-01
7.39E+00
5.51E-01
1.10E+01
4.26E-01
1.65E+01
3.20E-01
2.45E+01
2.32E-01
3.66E+01
1.62E-01
5.46E+01
1.08E-01
8.15E+01
6.86E-02
1.22E+02
4.09E-02
1.81E+02
2.27E-02
2.71E+02
1.16E-02
4.04E+02
5.34E-03
6.02E+02
2.17E-03
8.99E+02
7.49E-04
1.34E+03
2.06E-04
2.00E+03
3.74E-05
85

Intensity (gal)
1.00E+00
1.36E+00
1.49E+00
1.19E+00
2.23E+00
1.02E+00
3.32E+00
8.49E-01
4.95E+00
6.93E-01
7.39E+00
5.51E-01
1.10E+01
4.28E-01
1.65E+01
3.24E-01
2.45E+01
2.37E-01
3.66E+01
1.68E-01
5.46E+01
1.14E-01
8.15E+01
7.39E-02
1.22E+02
4.54E-02
1.81E+02
2.62E-02
2.71E+02
1.40E-02
4.04E+02
6.86E-03
6.02E+02
3.00E-03
8.99E+02
1.15E-03
1.34E+03
3.68E-04
2.00E+03
9.01E-05
86

Intensity (gal)
1.00E+00
1.36E+00
1.49E+00
1.19E+00
2.23E+00
1.02E+00
3.32E+00
8.48E-01
4.95E+00
6.91E-01
7.39E+00
5.49E-01
1.10E+01
4.26E-01
1.65E+01
3.21E-01
2.45E+01
2.34E-01
3.66E+01
1.65E-01
5.46E+01
1.11E-01
8.15E+01
7.10E-02
1.22E+02
4.29E-02
1.81E+02
2.42E-02
2.71E+02
1.25E-02
4.04E+02
5.89E-03
6.02E+02
2.44E-03
8.99E+02
8.70E-04
1.34E+03
2.50E-04
2.00E+03
4.97E-05
87

Intensity (gal)
1.00E+00
1.36E+00
1.49E+00
1.18E+00
2.23E+00
1.01E+00
3.32E+00
8.38E-01
4.95E+00
6.81E-01
7.39E+00
5.40E-01
1.10E+01
4.18E-01
1.65E+01
3.16E-01
2.45E+01
2.31E-01
3.66E+01
1.64E-01
5.46E+01
1.11E-01
8.15E+01
7.22E-02
1.22E+02
4.43E-02
1.81E+02
2.54E-02
2.71E+02
1.34E-02
4.04E+02
6.43E-03
6.02E+02
2.73E-03
8.99E+02
1.00E-03
1.34E+03
3.00E-04
2.00E+03
6.48E-05
88
Fig: Geological cross section through the Nepal Himalaya at the true scale (after Upreti, 1999). MFT: Main Frontal Thrust, MBT:
Main Boundary Thrust, MCT: Main Central Thrust, STDS: South Tibetan Detachment System. Legend: 1. Tibetan-Tethys sequence, 2.
Higher Himalayan Sequence 3. Lesser Himalayan Sequence, 4. Higher Himalayan leucogranites, 5. Lesser Himalaya (Paleozoic), 6.
Siwalik, 7. Gangetic plain.
89

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Kathmandu Valley

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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Kathmandu Valley

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ABSTRACT

SEISMICITY OF THE REGION ............................................................................................. 3

LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................................ 9

PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS................................................................... 16

4.3 Prediction of Ground Motion by Using Attenuation Relationship.......................... 19

DATA INPUT .................................................................................................................... 41

6.2.7 Input Global Parameters................................................................................... 47

RESULTS AND ANALYSIS ................................................................................................. 49

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................................... 61

10.0 ANNEX 1....................................................................................................................... 64

Guttenberg Richter coefficients

Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Acceleration due to gravity

Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program

International Seismological Centre

Main Boundary Thrust

Main Central thrust

Main Frontal thrust

Body wave magnitude

Surface wave magnitude

Nepal Building Code

National/Nepal Seismological Centre

Peak Ground Acceleration

Peak Horizontal Acceleration

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Source to site distance

Closet distance to rupture (km)

Natural Period of vibration, (sec)

Mean annual rate of exceedance

Standard Deviation of Moment Magnitude

Destructive Earthquakes (M>=6) which occurred in the region (Annex 1)

Approximated rupture area and magnitudes of destructive Himalayan

Intensity distribution of 1833, North Kathmandu Earthquake (Bilham, 1995) -----8

Intensity distribution of 1934, Bihar-Nepal Earthquake (Bilham, 1995) -------------8

Seismic Hazard Map of Nepal (NBC-105). -------------------------------------------------10

Four steps of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (Kramer, 1996) ---------------16

Flow chart for the seismic hazard analysis. -----------------------------------------------21

Cumulative frequency of earthquakes considered for the given number of

Earthquake sources (DMG 2002) ------------------------------------------------------------27

Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship curve for source zone 2 ---------------29

Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship curve for source zone 2 ---------------30

Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship curve for source zone 3 ---------------31

Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship curve for source zone 4 ---------------32

Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship curve for source zone 5 ---------------33

Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship curve for source zone 6 ---------------34

Map and cites file selection of Kathmandu Valley ---------------------------------------42

Sites of Computation of Hazard --------------------------------------------------------------43

Geometry of the Seismic Sources ------------------------------------------------------------44

Source Seismicity data of the Earthquake Sources --------------------------------------45

Intensities for each spectral ordinate -------------------------------------------------------47

Global parameters (integrations parameters, fixed return periods and distance

Uniform Hazard Spectra for the coordinates X = 85.41969, Y = 27.41038 for 10 %

Uniform Hazard Spectra for the coordinates X = 85.5462, Y = 27.78348 for 10 %

Uniform Hazard Spectra for the coordinates X = 85.34357, Y = 27.51438 for 10 %

Uniform Hazard Spectra for the coordinates X = 85.2578, Y = 27.70843 for 10 %

Uniform Hazard Spectra for the coordinates X = 85.44327, Y = 27.69771 for 10 %

Uniform Hazard Spectra for the coordinates X = 85.4154, Y = 27.41038 for 10 %

Uniform Hazard Spectra for the coordinates X = 85.56228, Y = 27.76632 for 10 %

Uniform Hazard Spectra for the coordinates X = 85.34357, Y = 27.51223 for 10 %

Uniform Hazard Spectra for the coordinates X = 85.25672, Y = 27.69128 for 10 %

Uniform Hazard Spectra for the coordinates X = 85.42612, Y = 27.7213 for 10 %

Historical earthquakes which reportedly destroyed the Kathmandu valley in the

Window algorithm for aftershock -----------------------------------------------------------25