Geog 3810 Final Project

Temperature Changes in Manitoba Since 1981

Jordan Hanna, Michael Hockett, Don Roberts, Geoff Genge, Matt Halbesma

TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND & RATIONALE OBJECTIVES OF RESEARCH 3 3 5 6 8 8 9 13 16

METHODOLOGY

RESULTS DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS INFERENTIAL ANALYSIS

CONCLUSIONS

REFERENCES

INTRODUCTION
BACKGROUND & RATIONALE The purpose of this study is to analyze the changes in annual temperature in Manitoba from 1981 to 2001. Global temperature since the early 1900s has increased markedly, particularly since 1975. This trend of warming in global temperatures has amounted to approximately 0.8oC in the last century, however, 75% of this increase (0.6oC) has been in the last three decades since the 1980s.1 As shown in Figure 1, global
FIGURE 1 GLOBAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE SINCE 1860 HTTP://WWW.NEWSCIENTIST.COM/ARTICLE/DN11639 -CLIMATE-MYTHS-THE-COOLING-AFTER-1940-SHOWSCO2-DOES-NOT-CAUSE-WARMING.HTML#.UYXCFLDWD4

temperature increase has a much sharper upward trend since 1975. Since the 1980s, countries across the globe have experienced much variation in weather, such as droughts, record-breaking precipitation events, stronger hurricanes and cyclones and as a result billions in damages associated with these more extreme weather events.2 This upward trend of temperatures is particularly consequential because it causes redistribution in precipitation, both rain and snow, as well as affecting snow and permafrost covers, which would affect parts of Manitoba substantially.3 The reason for doing this study of temperature change within Manitoba has to do with different effects rising temperatures will have on the Northern and Southern regions

of Manitoba. Climate change has been debated for many generations and for such reasons it is essential to show quantitative figures that suggest whether or not climate change is affecting Manitoba. Weather and climate are very different from one another; weather is short term such as hourly, daily and seasonal conditions of the atmosphere. The conditions of the atmosphere refer to temperature, barometric pressure, precipitation, humidity and cloudiness. Climate refers to long-term average weather patterns and atmospheric conditions. Manitoba is recognized in the world as a global leader for taking action on climate change and preparing for a greener
FIGURE 2 EFFECTS OF RISING TEMPERATURE IN MANITOBA. HTTP://WWW.GOV.MB.CA/CONSERVATION/ CLIMATE/CLIMATE_EFFECT.HTML

future. The Northern geography along with being in the centre of the continent places Manitoba as one of the first to be effected and beginning to experience the effects of climate change.4 In Northern Manitoba the main concern is the thawing of permafrost, this will lead to global ramifications as the previously frozen organic carbon will lead to a positive feedback to global warming on a global scale, this will also alter ecosystem dynamics such as growing season duration, plant growth rates and species composition.5 In the Southern regions of Manitoba climate change will affect the efficiency of current agricultural practices and in effect the provincial economy for in 1988 agriculture provided 10.9% of the provincial GDP and 14.2% of the provincial labour force. Another

concern is crop region movement, with changing climates you have different plants that are more suited than others meaning that crops may need to be changed or more expensive cultivation methods will need to be implemented.6 Other issues for Southern Manitoba as a result of climate change will be more extreme weather events such as heavy rains, longer and more frequent drought, less snow cover leading to reduced moisture for agriculture and greater risk of flooding like the 1997 Flood of the Century. 7

OBJECTIVES OF RESEARCH The objective of this study is to analyze if there is any significant relationship between temperature change and time in the period of time of 1981 to 2001. In addition, the study aims to analyze the differences of the relationships, if there is any, between Northern and Southern Manitoba. Northern and southern regions are defined by their position relative to 53.4oN latitude. Northern Manitoba consists of Churchill, Gillam, Thompson, Flin Flon and The Pas. Southern Manitoba consists of Brandon, Dauphin, Gimli, Portage and Winnipeg. The results that we are expecting are that there is a positive relationship between temperature change and time in both the Northern and Southern regions of Manitoba. We are expecting this result because temperatures on a global scale have risen since 19801. If there is a relationship between temperature and time we will compare the relationship in the northern region to the southern region.

METHODOLOGY
The purpose of this research project is to find out whether there is a relationship between temperature increase and time; and if so, is there a significant difference in this relationship between Northern and Southern Manitoba. The target area of study is Manitoba, which is divided by Northern and Southern Manitoba. The North and South Dichotomy has been defined anything north of The Pas is north, and anything south of The Pas is the South; the dividing line is on the 53.4oN line of latitude. The data to be collected will come in the form of temperature measurements, from selected weather stations across Northern and Southern Manitoba. The temperature data was collected through environment Canadas historic data, from ten weather stations spread over the province.8 The data values are averages over a one-year period, from the range of 1981-2001. The datas level of precision is measured to one tenth of a degree for each value. As a note, this level of precision is what is provided by Environment Canada. In doing this, we can get a more accurate representation of the weather values collected by the weather stations across the province. The operational sample frame we can select sample units from is the list of Environment Canadas inventory of weathering stations across our target area.
FIGURE 3 - OVER 96 WEATHER STATIONS ACROSS MANITOBA AS PART OF THE SAMPLING FRAME

The sample size chosen was ten out of upwards of one hundred monitoring stations. Station selection was based upon Environment Canada data because of the accuracy and level of accuracy. Accuracy with Environment Canada is has much less missing years and cut off dates than other weather stations across the province, which allows for a better representation of the true temperatures across the province. Method of selecting samples relied on the non-probability method of convenience. This method was employed because the Environment Canada synoptic stations that we chose provide hourly updates on climate; the level of precision improves the true representation of temperature across both Northern and Southern Manitoba. As a result of the above conditions, we selected the following stations:
TABLE 1 - WEATHER STATION SELECTION

Northern Manitoba (Above 53.4oN) The Pas Thompson Gillam Churchill Flin Flon

Southern Manitoba (Below 53.4oN) Winnipeg International Airport Brandon Gimli Dauphin Portage La Prairie

Since we are testing for relationships between temperature and time, we are going to want to do a regression analysis, but first we need to run a correlation initially to see if there is an association. For correlation analysis, we had to determine normality of the data sets collected. To do this, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test was used to determine normality. If a sample was normal, the Pearsons test is used to determine association, while if it is not normal; the Spearmans correlation test was used to test for association.

Because there was no association with the samples, the correlation coefficient was not statistically different from zero; therefore no further analysis with regression was used. All tests use a 95% confidence interval and a significance level of 0.05.

RESULTS
DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS The following table includes descriptive statics including sample size, range, mean and standard deviation. For N, our sample size of each synoptic weather station, Environment Canada has missing data for several years at Gillam and Flin Flon, which explains difference in N between those two stations and the other three in Northern Manitoba. The mean range of values for all stations is around 4.3oC, which all have very similar ranges, this indicates consistent annual averages of temperature in Northern Manitoba; this is made more apparent but looking at the individual standard deviations, which all hover around 1.15-1.29. Despite similar ranges and standard deviations, mean annual temperatures vary quite considerably. The Pas has the highest annual temperature from 1981-2001, with an average temperature of 0.43oC, with the lowest mean coming from Churchill, the most northern sample, with a mean of -6.58oC. These two differences could potentially be attributed to latitude and how weather stations are situated with water bodies. The overall mean annual temperatures for the northern stations are -2.56oC.

TABLE 2 - NORTHERN STATION DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

For southern weather stations, there are some differences in descriptive statistics between the north and south. First, the N value for Dauphin, Gimli and Portage La Prairie have much larger gaps in temperature data than in the northern stations. What is interesting is the range of temperatures in Brandon and Winnipeg versus the other three stations. This larger variation in annual mean temperature could potentially be attributed to the heat-island effect of larger urban areas, especially Winnipeg. The mean values of each station are somewhat consistent with the range values, however Portage La Prairie, Gimli and Dauphins values could be affected by the lack of samples at each station from missing data. On average, the southern stations mean annual temperatures are 2.60oC; a 5.16oC difference between the northern and southern stations on average over the period of 1981 to 2001.

TABLE 3 - SOUTHERN STATION DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

INFERENTIAL ANALYSIS The first step taken with inferential analysis is using the KS-test to determine normality. In the north, all the stations besides Flin Flon are normally distributed. The other four stations are normally distributed because the p-value is greater than the significance level of 0.05 that we had selected.

FIGURE 4 - KS TEST TO DETERMINE NORMALITY

After determining normality, we select either a Pearsons Correlation test for normally distributed data, or Spearmans Correlation test for data that is not normally distributed. These will determine association between temperature change over the time period of 1981 to 2001.
TABLE 5 NORTHERN STATION PEARSON AND SPEARMAN CORRELATION RESULTS

Location

Number of Observations

P-value ( 0.444 0.056 0.062 0.295 0.247 )

Correlation coefficient +0.177 +0.422 +0.435 +0.240 +0.271

Statistically significant No No No No No

The Pas Churchill Gillam Thompson Flin Flon

21 21 21 21 21

The above Table shows that all five locations are not statistically different than zero in terms of their association. Looking at the p-value at all of the above tests, because the p-values exceed the significance level of 0.05, which means there is no statistical association with temperature change and time. This is evident through the scatterplots determining association. The scatter plots below indicate that there is no concrete association with temperature and time. While there direction with the values are positive, the R2 values
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that determine the strength of association are not significantly different than zero, despite from having values of 0.097 and 0.178 as above.

FIGURE 5 - FLIN FLON SCATTERPLOT RESULTS

FIGURE 6 - CHURCHILL SCATTERPLOT RESULTS

The KS-test for southern weather stations resulted in normally distributed data because of the p-value being greater than our significance level of 0.05. The correlation test of choice will be the Pearsons Correlation test.

TABLE 6 - SOUTHERN NORMALITY TESTS

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TABLE 7 SOUTHERN STATION PEARSON CORRELATION RESULTS

Location

Number of Observations

P-value ( 0.841 0.722 0.305 0.726 0.366 )

Correlation Coefficient -0.047 -0.083 +0.264 -0.127 -0.274

Statistically Significant No No No No No

Winnipeg Brandon Dauphin Gimli Portage

21 21 21 10 13

The Pearsons test for association for southern stations show the same result as the northern stations. Because the p-values for all southern stations exceed the allowed significance level of 0.05, we reject that there is any significant difference between the given correlation values and zero. This means that there is no association between temperature rise and time in the time period of 1981 to 2001. Just like northern stations that were sampled, there is no association; therefore we are unable to use regression analysis to test for a relationship. What is interesting to note, is that northern station correlation scatterplots show that despite theres no statistical association between temperature and time, the direction of values is in an upward trend; increasing in temperature. However, the southern
FIGURE 7 - PORTAGES NEGATIVE DIRECTION OF VALUES OVER TIME

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stations except for dauphin, the most northern southern station selected, all have negative of values, as shown here.

CONCLUSIONS
The objective of this quantitative study was to see if there is a relationship between temperature and time in Manitoba and if there is a relationship does this relationship differ between northern and southern regions. If the results were significant in terms of temperature change, we wanted to find out if rates in temperature change between Northern and Southern Manitoba are significantly different as well. As we found, there was no concrete association between temperature changes over time. Because of the resulting outputs in data, we fail to reject our null hypothesis that there is a significant change in temperature in both northern and southern Manitoba from 1981 to 2001. As a result of these findings, we assume that there is no significant impact of temperature change on the Manitoban landscape. However, what was noted is that there was a positive, or warming trend in Northern Manitoba, despite no statistical association between the variables time and temperature. This can be interpreted as there are more annual mean temperatures above normal, but with the results and limitations of the study, this is only speculative and not concrete; it would require different variables and longer periods of data collection and with more samples. Likewise, southern stations except for dauphin the most northern southern station have a negative trend. Again with no association between the two variables, this could have something to do with increased weather extremes during winter and spring months, also an increase in intensity of continental weather patterns. Again, this could be validated or analyzed more deeply with changes to variable selection, length of period of study and more samples to collect from.
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There are many issues or holes that the study conducted has come across, that could be improved with changes to the study. First, there could be an increase in the period of data collection. Because temperatures rose more steeply from the 1970s as evident in the figure in the introduction, this may have convoluted any significant changes to temperature. If data had been available from the 1950s, that may have given a stronger indication of trends in temperature change over a fifty-year period, rather than only twenty. This leads to the second issue, is that many of our samples were missing substantial amounts of data. Gimli for example over that twenty-year period only had ten observations. This lack of observable data greatly affects the accuracy and precision of temperature change. Third, our sample size for both northern and southern Manitoba could have been more substantial. A better representation may have been to include a more stratified systematic method of selecting climactic stations, but due to issues of convenience were not carried out. Finally, there were issues on how the data was collected. Annual temperatures dont give a full representation of monthly changes in temperature, which would have been more valuable. It is less likely for extremes to balance out each other, for example having a very frigid winter averaged together with a very cool summer one year gives a different and misrepresents extremes on a monthly basis. We would have liked to know variation or the degree of extremes in winter, summer, spring and fall months over a larger period of time. In conclusion, Manitoba from 1981 to 2001 has not witnessed any statistically significant changes in temperature in both northern and southern parts of the province. While there was some positive and negative trends in northern and southern Manitoba

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respectively, the Pearsons and Spearmans tests showed that there was no statistical difference in association between the output values and zero. We can conclude then that we reject our hypothesis that there has been a statistically significant change in temperatures over the time period of 1981 to 2001. Despite this conclusion, there was noted positive direction in temperature change in northern stations. While this could be indicative of some warming trends in Northern Manitoba, we cannot conclude this based on our data. We would require changes to our data sets, such as an increased sample size, longer duration of study, analyze monthly rather than annual temperature values and have more comprehensive and complete data sets to challenge these results.

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REFERENCES
1

James Hansen Et Al. Global Temperature Change. Proceedings of the National

Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). Sept 26th 2006. Vol 103 No 39.
2

Bharat Signh & Onkar Singh. Study of Impacts of Global Warming on Climate Change:

Rise in Sea Level andDisaster Frequency. Global Warming Impacts and Future Perspective, Ch. 3. P. 93-118. 2012.
3

Ibid. http://www.gov.mb.ca/conservation/climate/index.html http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/content/58/8/701.short http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1744-7976.1990.tb03503.x/abstract http://www.gov.mb.ca/conservation/climate/climate_effect.html Weather data collected from Environment Canada.

4 5 6 7 8

http://weather.gc.ca/forecast/canada/index_e.html?id=MB

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