Alex Roman

Apophis Collision
Senior
MATH

Abstract
Question:
Will the (99942) Apophis asteroid collide with the Earth in the year 2036? If it is predicted
to collide with the earth, what measures could be taken to alter its course?
Hypothesis:
I think that it is statistically unlikely that the Apophis asteroid will hit the earth in 2036.
Method:
A tremendous amount of research has been done on this topic at NASA and JPL. I was able
to learn much from reading their studies and used their data as the basis for my calculations.
1. I downloaded 3D data from NASA
2. I plotted the orbits for all planets of interest
3. I computed the distance between east and Apophis from 2012 to 2037
Data Analysis:
My calculations show that the closest point miss distance from earth is 32,736 km in 2029.
However due to the number of factors it is currently impossible to calculate the miss distance
for 2036, the miss distance 181,569, due to the chaotic nature of Apophis going through the
gravitational key hole, it could vary from very small to a greater risk.
Conclusion:
Apophis will not collide with the earth in 2029, the miss distance is very small however.
After Apophis passes through the gravitational key hole in 2029, we will have a better idea of
the prediction for 2036.