The concept of

“Energy and Territories”

and the foresight perspective
Gérard Magnin
Energie-Cités
18 November 2009
 1 - Energy and Territories:
a new way of thinking through
the energy issue in cities
 Economy,
Technology

Energy

Culture, Citizenship,
Civilisation,
Territory, Governance
 Resources

Energy

Emissions / Climate
Scarcity

Energy
Energy

Abundance
Energy Land Use
Planning
 “Progress”
is (?) / was (?)
the ability of human
beings to develop
the economy
and cities
independently of
natural and local
resources
 Energy
Old/current paradigm

(centralised)
Production

Transmission

Distribution

Consumption

Supply driven, top down

We are facing two different civilisations
Sustainable World Final Energy Consumption

16000

14000
Scénario 1
12000
10000 Scénario 2
BAU
8000
F4
6000

4000
2000

0
 Scarcity (again)

Energy

Subsidiarity (principle of)

 Energy
Emerging/future
paradigm
(centralised)
Production
Transmission

Collection &
Distribution

(low) Consumption
& (decentralised)
Production
Demand driven, bottom up
 Energy
Energy
Emerging/future
Old/current paradigm
paradigm
(centralised) (centralised)
Production Production
Transmission
Transmission
Collection &
Distribution
Distribution
(low) Consumption
Consumption & (decentralised)
Production
Supply driven, top down Demand driven, bottom up
Keeping money at home
 What if “Progress”
was the ability of
human beings to
develop the
economy and cities
in harmony with
natural and local
resources
 Objectif: 4t CO2

-> 1 ?
-> 0,7?

-> 0,9?
-> 0,7 ?

-> 0,35?

-> 0,2?
500 posters presenting people who act practically
 2 - Foresight:
what target-based challenges
are to be met
or 2020 versus 2050?
What about next year?
Aligning short, medium and long term visions
 ”I wonder what will happen...?”
planning and investing by forecasting alone...

...based on trends, looking

towards what might happen,
’correcting’ problems...
? ”Realistic”
(by today’s
?measures)?
?

2009 2030
time
Impossible to change our direction!
From David Waldron
 ”What do we want to happen?
How will we get there?”

We cannot
continue as
in the past… Desired and energy
sustainable future in
one generation

Strategies and
actions = ?
current
reality
2009 time
Imagining our future in backcasting together...
From David Waldron
Discussion