Module 11: Introduction

to Probability
Lesson 4: Problems involving probabilities of
events

In this module, you will learn more about the
rich applications of the fundamental counting principles
and probability. Remember to search for the answer to
the following questions: How is the number of
occurrences of an event determined? How does
knowledge of finding the likelihood of an event help you
in your daily life?










Module 11: Introduction to Probability



Lesson 4: Problems involving probabilities of events Page 2



Probability is a type of ratio where we compare how many times an outcome can
occur compared to all possible outcomes.

Example:
What is the probability to get a 6 when you roll a die?
A die has 6 sides, 1 side contain the number 6 that give us 1 wanted outcome in 6 possible
outcomes.




Learning Objectives: At the end of this lesson, the students are expected to;
Solve simple problems involving probabilities of events.

Module 11: Introduction to Probability



Lesson 4: Problems involving probabilities of events Page 3

Independent events
The probability of an event, P (event), is a number from 0 to 1 which tells how likely
the event is to happen.
Take a closer look at the probability line below.

Never to happen To happen about half the time Sure to happen


1
0 0. 25 0. 5 0. 75 1
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%


Independent events: Two events are independent when the outcome of the first event does
not influence the outcome of the second event.
When we determine the probability of two independent events we multiply the probability of
the first event by the probability of the second event.

To find the probability of an independent event we are using this rule:
Example:
If one has three dice what is the probability of getting three 4s?
The probability of getting a 4 on one die is 1/6
The probability of getting 3 4s is:

When the outcome affects the second outcome, which is what we called dependent events.

If two events are independent, then the outcome of one event has no effect on the
outcome of the second. For example, if I flip a coin twice, whether the first toss landed heads
Module 11: Introduction to Probability



Lesson 4: Problems involving probabilities of events Page 4

or tails has no impact on how the second toss landed. The probability of getting heads first
time was , and the probability of getting heads the second time was still .

However, it is possible for two events to not be mutually exclusive (dependent). For
example, if I have 10 sweets in a pack, 5 red and 5 blue, then the probably of my selecting a
red sweet first time at random is 5/10 (or ). If I eat the sweet, then there are only 9 left in the
pack, and only 4 of them are red, so if I select a second sweet at random, the probably of it
being red is now 4/9. The probably of my selecting a red sweet second time has changed,
depending on what I selected the first time.


Dependent events

Dependent events: Two events are dependent when the outcome of the first event
influences the outcome of the second event. The probability of two dependent events is the
product of the probability of X and the probability of Y AFTER X occurs.


Example:
What is the probability for you to choose two red cards in a deck of cards?
A deck of cards has 26 black and 26 red cards. The probability of choosing a red card
randomly is:

The probability of choosing a second red card from the deck is now:

The probability:



Module 11: Introduction to Probability



Lesson 4: Problems involving probabilities of events Page 5

Probability Rules

1. The probability of any event is a number (either a fraction, a decimal or a percent)
from 0 to 1.
Examples: The weather forecast shows a 70% rain.
P (rain) = 70%

2. If an event will never happen, then its probability is 0.
Example: When a single die is rolled, find the probability of getting an 8.
Since the sample space consists of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6,... it is impossible to get an 8.
Hence, P(9) =

= 0.

3. If an event is sure to happen, then the probability is 1.
Example: When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of getting a number
less than 7?
Since all the outcomes {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} are less than 7,
P (number less than 7) =

= 1

4. The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space is 1.
Example:

In rolling a fair die, each outcome in the sample space has a probability of

.
Hence, the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes is 1.

If a fair coin is flipped, P(T) = 12 and P(H) =

If you flipped the coin ten times and got the following outcomes: H, H. H, T, H, T, T, H, H,
what is the probability that the last outcome will also be a Head (H)? How did you arrive at
your answer?
P (event) =




P (event) =




Examples:

1. What is the probability of getting a HEART from a deck of cards?
P (heart) = 13 52 = 14

2. There are 20 marbles in a container: 4 are red, 5 are blue and 11 are yellow. What is the
probability that a blue marble will be picked?
P (blue marble) = 5 20 = 14


Module 11: Introduction to Probability



Lesson 4: Problems involving probabilities of events Page 6

Sometimes, getting an event affects the outcome of another event. Take a look at these
examples:

1. Five red candies are left in a bag of 40 different colored candies.





a. What is the probability that you will get a red candy?
How did you get your answer?
b. What are your chances of getting a red one when you pick again? Do you have the
same answer? Why?
How many candies are now in the bag?
How many red candies are there?

Getting the next candy is affected by the result of the first attempt. Every time you
get a piece of candy from a bag, the chance of getting a red one will change. These
are called dependent events.

2. Flipping a Coin

a. When you flip a coin, what is the probability of heads landing up?
b. If you flip it again, what is the probability of getting tails?

The two events do not affect each other. They are independent events.