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AJUSTE DE UNA SERIE DE DATOS A UNA DISTRIBUCION NORMAL

ao

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

caudal

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

PERIODO DE RETORNO
RIESGO DE FALLA

69.62
109
214
178.5
259.06
8.19
109.7
72.66
129.47
160.21
181.46
42.48
52.74
63.92
56.68
59.34
107.72
105.11
145.22
21.24
T=
R=

ao

21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38

500 aos
20%

caudal

1965
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1975
1976
1977
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986

29.16
37.5
75
85
128
201
112
91.4
88.6
45
9.05
8.91
64.08
15.48
18
124
108.6
149.5

CAUDALES MEDIOS MENSUAL

AO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39

ENE
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976

FEB
4.7
55
11.1
21.3
33.1
19
10
11.1
5.5
100.4
9.1
116.4
5.8
7.5
25.5
23
8.9
37.3
14.2
4.1
15.2
4.9
28.1
12.7
40.4
30.7
13.7
12.6
3.3
3.7
15.7
9.3
23.7
14.2
17
24.1
31
24.1
29.1

MAR
80.4
114.5
4.3
10.2
11.9
34.1
69.4
8.5
20.7
25.8
52.1
161.2
5.8
42
54.1
51.5
16.9
66.6
27.1
12.9
15.2
6.4
27.9
37.9
72.4
89.5
13.3
8.6
7.3
36.8
17.5
19.8
29.1
26.1
41.9
56
36.7
91.6
35

ABR
56.8
89.8
4.1
5.6
4.1
34.8
56.8
16.2
10.8
8.7
93.7
75.2
6.1
36.6
18.1
54.5
65.4
106.7
5.6
22.8
20.9
15.7
15.6
19.1
49.6
73.6
13.1
8.4
12.1
52.4
32.8
14
26.6
19.9
45.8
40.3
21.2
69.9
21.1

56
17.4
5
5.2
3.9
22.5
25.6
5.6
5.2
5.2
54.6
11.3
5.9
8.3
5.2
12.6
23
11.1
4.7
5.7
3.2
3.5
9.2
52.3
11.9
55.7
5.6
4.2
4.8
9.3
9.3
6
7.5
8.8
9.8
19.3
6.8
25.5
6.1

40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Promedio
Qm =

10.4
40.9
55.5
10.1
28.6
14.5
12.4
6.8
8.2
8.8
18.8
5.3
5
5.3
10.7
4.9
10.4
36.5
26
13
17.3
18.3
13.8
6.7
3
2.7
4.3
4.8
13.4
62.6
38.3
10.6
11
37.4
36.2
39.6
33.5
48.5
62.7
23.1
38.2
14.1
6.1
10.8
23.7
16.5
12.8
15.9
11.1
16.2
14.2
9.8
10.5
7.3
6.5
5.1
16.3
9.4
32.9
4.4
20.687037 34.7777778 31.4018519 13.4018519
11.7912037 m3 / s

NUMERO DE AOS=

n=

54

CAUDALES MEDIOS MENSUALES (ORIGINALES (m3/s))

MAY

JUN
10.8
5.3
4.5
4.4
4.1
4.2
4.4
4.6
5
5.4
10.9
4.5
4.8
4.8
3.8
7.3
6.2
6.3
4.8
3.5
2.7
3
3.9
22.3
4.7
7.1
3.5
3.7
3.5
4.2
5.8
5.8
3.8
3.9
5.9
5.8
6
4.9
5

JUL
5
4.8
4.4
4
4.1
8.1
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.9
5.3
3.9
4.4
4.1
4.4
5.2
5.5
5.5
4.9
4
2.7
2.7
3.8
3
4.1
4.2
3.3
3.5
5.8
4.2
5.3
5.7
4.2
4.4
5
3.1
5.2
6
4.8

AGO
4
5
4.5
4
4.2
4.2
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.8
4.9
3.9
4.7
4.9
3.8
4.6
5.6
5.1
5
3.6
3
2.6
3.6
3.2
3.4
4.1
3.4
4.1
4.6
3.3
4.8
4.7
3.6
3.6
4.9
2.6
4.9
5
5.8

SET
4.5
5.4
4.3
4
4.2
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.5
4.6
4.7
4
4.6
5.1
4.6
4
4.7
4.6
4.9
3.9
3
2.8
2.7
3
3.1
3.6
3.6
4.2
3.1
3.7
4.1
5.1
3
3.5
4
2.8
5.3
5.1
5

OCT
4.3
4.8
3.9
4
4.2
4.1
4.4
4.6
4.1
4.3
4.6
4.1
4.7
4.2
4.6
3.9
4.9
4.4
4.7
4
3.2
2.8
2.9
3.2
4.5
3.3
3.5
3.1
2
3.4
5.3
4.4
2.1
2.9
4.8
4.9
5.6
3.9
3.9

NOV
4
4.2
4
4
4.1
4.1
4.3
4.5
4
4.2
4.7
4.3
5
3.8
4.3
3.3
5
4
4
3.3
3.6
3.2
4.2
3
4.1
3.7
4.3
5
2.1
3.2
4.2
3.7
2.6
2.6
4
3.6
5.5
3.7
3.7

4
4.4
3.9
3.9
4.1
4
4.1
4.2
4.4
3.9
4.1
4.7
5.1
4.1
5.2
4.4
5.2
3.9
4.1
2.9
4.2
3.6
4.3
3.8
3.6
3.2
4.2
3.1
3.3
2.7
6.4
3.8
3.1
3.8
4
4.7
4.3
3.5
3.7

16.9
6.4
3
2.6
3.7
4.4
4.1
4
4.3
5.3
5.5
4.6
3.6
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.1
4
4.8
3.1
4.9
4.3
3.1
2.8
3.9
3.8
2.8
3.6
3.8
3.6
3.7
10
9.4
10.4
12.1
7.8
7.8
15.4
14.7
12.1
10.8
9.1
6.8
8.1
6.5
12.7
7.1
3.2
4.8
6.2
8.2
3.9
7.4
4.5
3.7
4.3
4.2
8.5
7.7
5.66851852 4.87407407 4.89444444 4.62962963

2.8
3.3
3.4
5.2
4.2
4.5
2.7
4.1
13.6
13.5
4
12.3
9.3
3.4
10.8
4.6962963

3.7
5.2
2.4
5.1
3.9
4.1
4.2
3.8
4.5
3.7
4
5.6
2.8
2.8
3.6
5.7
12.6
13.8
11.9
11.3
8.3
11.4
10.7
4.9
10.8
8.6
3.2
4.1
11.2
6.4
4.6462963 4.71111111

35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00

EXISTE UN 90% DE PROB

MES

DIC
3.9
4.5
6.5
8.7
4.5
4.2
4.5
4.5
33.8
4.9
4.9
5.8
5.7
7.7
8.3
5.2
4.8
8.4
4
6
4.7
3.7
3.8
20.9
3.8
9.9
4.3
3.8
2.8
4
6.5
5
3.1
7.5
8.5
4.6
4.6
16.7
3

MEDIO ANUAL
19.87
26.26
5.04
6.61
7.21
12.29
16.40
6.46
8.93
14.76
21.13
33.28
5.22
11.09
11.83
14.96
13.01
21.99
7.33
6.39
6.80
4.58
9.17
15.37
17.13
24.05
6.32
5.36
4.56
10.91
9.81
7.28
9.37
8.43
12.97
14.32
11.43
21.66
10.52

MEDIO ANUAL
DECRECIENTE
33.28
26.26
24.05
21.99
21.88
21.66
21.13
19.87
18.52
17.13
16.40
15.37
14.96
14.76
14.32
14.06
13.57
13.01
12.97
12.29
11.87
11.83
11.43
11.24
11.09
10.91
10.58
10.52
10.17
9.81
9.37
9.34
9.17
8.93
8.43
7.89
7.57
7.33
7.28

MEDIO ANUAL
DECRECIENTE
33.28
26.26
24.05
21.99
21.88
21.66
21.13
19.87
18.52
17.13
16.40
15.37
14.96
14.76
14.32
14.06
13.57
13.01
12.97
12.29
11.87
11.83
11.43
11.24
11.09
10.91
10.58
10.52
10.17
9.81
9.37
9.34
9.17
8.93
8.43
7.89
7.57
7.33
7.28

FRECUENCIA
ABSOLUTA
DECRECIENTE
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
17.00
18.00
19.00
20.00
21.00
22.00
23.00
24.00
25.00
26.00
27.00
28.00
29.00
30.00
31.00
32.00
33.00
34.00
35.00
36.00
37.00
38.00
39.00

5.3
5.4
4.8
3.9
8.2
5.2
3.4
15.7
16.1
12.4
10.7
3.7
9.7
6.4
10.8
7.10555556

13.57
7.89
6.42
4.78
10.17
7.57
3.32
14.06
18.52
21.88
11.87
11.24
9.34
5.50
10.58

7.21
6.80
6.61
6.46
6.42
6.39
6.32
5.50
5.36
5.22
5.04
4.78
4.58
4.56
3.32

7.21
6.80
6.61
6.46
6.42
6.39
6.32
5.50
5.36
5.22
5.04
4.78
4.58
4.56
3.32

CURVA DURACION CAUDAL


35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

EXISTE UN 10% DE PROBABILIDAD DE QUE EL CAUDAL SEA IGUAL O EXCEDA A 22m3/s


EXISTE UN 90% DE PROBABILIDAD DE QUE EL CAUDAL SEA IGUAL O EXCEDA A 4m3/s
CADUAL MAXIMO 33m3/s ao hidrologico 1949-1950
CAUDAL MINIMO 3.32m3/s ao hidrologico 1984-1985

AOS DE CAUDALES DE SEQUIA DECENAL Y ABUNDANCIA DECENAL


CAUDAL MEDIOS MENSUAL

40.00
41.00
42.00
43.00
44.00
45.00
46.00
47.00
48.00
49.00
50.00
51.00
52.00
53.00
54.00

FRECUENCIA RELATIVA %
1.9
3.7
5.6
7.4
9.3
11.1
13.0
14.8
16.7
18.5
20.4
22.2
24.1
25.9
27.8
29.6
31.5
33.3
35.2
37.0
38.9
40.7
42.6
44.4
46.3
48.1
50.0
51.9
53.7
55.6
57.4
59.3
61.1
63.0
64.8
66.7
68.5
70.4
72.2

74.1
75.9
77.8
79.6
81.5
83.3
85.2
87.0
88.9
90.7
92.6
94.4
96.3
98.1
100.0

AO DE ABUNDANCIA DECENAL
AO DE SEQUIA DECENAL