16010014

SAM
Assignment
Page 1 of 6

Time series
Model
T =
22.454+2.197t

Month
Deseasonalized
Sales forecast
Seasonal
Index
Sales
forecast
52 136.698
0.580108176
79.29962751
53 138.895
1.187249129
164.9029677
54 141.092
1.797623701
253.6303232
55 143.289
2.175494212
311.7243902
56 145.486
1.966805334
286.1426408
57 147.683
1.827063787
269.8262613
58 149.88
1.143684853
171.4154857
59 152.077
0.499463714
75.95694329
60 154.274
0.321301743
49.5685051
61 156.471
0.178192571
27.88196984
62 158.668
0.154921556
24.58109345
63 160.865
0.168091224
27.03999468



16010014
SAM
Assignment
Page 2 of 6

Regression

Variables Entered/Removed
a

Model Variables Entered Variables
Removed
Method
1 month
b
. Enter
a. Dependent Variable: Seasonal adjusted series for sales from
SEASON, MOD_1, MUL EQU 12
b. All requested variables entered.

Model Summary
b

Model R R Square Adjusted R
Square
Std. Error of the
Estimate
1 .812
a
.659 .652 23.75406006
a. Predictors: (Constant), month
b. Dependent Variable: Seasonal adjusted series for sales from SEASON,
MOD_1, MUL EQU 12


ANOVA
a

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1
Regression 53332.532 1 53332.532 94.518 .000
b

Residual 27648.513 49 564.255

Total 80981.045 50

a. Dependent Variable: Seasonal adjusted series for sales from SEASON, MOD_1, MUL EQU 12
b. Predictors: (Constant), month


Coefficients
a

Model Unstandardized
Coefficients
Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig. Collinearity Statistics
B Std. Error Beta Tolerance VIF
1
(Constant) 22.454 6.752

3.326 .002

month 2.197 .226 .812 9.722 .000 1.000 1.000
a. Dependent Variable: Seasonal adjusted series for sales from SEASON, MOD_1, MUL EQU 12


Collinearity Diagnostics
a

16010014
SAM
Assignment
Page 3 of 6

Model Dimension Eigenvalue Condition Index Variance Proportions
(Constant) month
1
1 1.870 1.000 .06 .06
2 .130 3.796 .94 .94
a. Dependent Variable: Seasonal adjusted series for sales from SEASON, MOD_1, MUL EQU
12




Residuals Statistics
a

Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation N
Predicted Value 24.6508675 134.4970551 79.5739580 32.65961790 51
Residual -47.74120331 61.50791931 0E-8 23.51531973 51
Std. Predicted Value -1.682 1.682 .000 1.000 51
Std. Residual -2.010 2.589 .000 .990 51
a. Dependent Variable: Seasonal adjusted series for sales from SEASON, MOD_1, MUL EQU 12

16010014
SAM
Assignment
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16010014
SAM
Assignment
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16010014
SAM
Assignment
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