METODO GUMBEL

1.-

Se tiene el registro de caudales mximos de 50 aos para la estacin 9-3 Angostura, como se muestra en la tabla 6.15. En este ro se desea construir una
presa de almacenamiento, calcular el caudal de diseo para el vertedor de demasas, para perodos de retorno 50, 100, 500 y 1000 aos
respectivamente. Utilizar el mtodo Gumbel
Caudales mximos de la estacin Angostura para el perodo
1960 - 2009.

DATOS
AO

CAUDAL
m/s
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

AO
2,241.00
1,237.95
5,130.00
1,903.50
3,078.00
834.30
922.05
1,260.90
1,051.65
1,243.35

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

CAUDAL
m/s
1,007.40
851.00
1,288.00
701.50
1,322.50
647.45
598.00
414.00
422.05
756.70

SOLUCION
AO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

1.-

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

Clculo de la media

Qm =

28748
= 958.30m / s
30

Qm =
2.-

1,128.18

Media

Clculo de la desviacin estandar

Q =

Q =
3.-

Q
Q^2
m/s
2,241.00
5,022,081.00
1,237.95
1,532,520.20
5,130.00 26,316,900.00
1,903.50
3,623,312.25
3,078.00
9,474,084.00
834.30
696,056.49
922.05
850,176.20
1,260.90
1,589,868.81
1,051.65
1,105,967.72
1,243.35
1,545,919.22
1,007.40
1,014,854.76
851.00
724,201.00
1,288.00
1,658,944.00
701.50
492,102.25
1,322.50
1,749,006.25
647.45
419,191.50
598.00
357,604.00
414.00
171,396.00
422.05
178,126.20
756.70
572,594.89
972.32
945,406.18
1,003.00
1,006,009.00
1,451.40
2,106,561.96
615.96
379,406.72
685.58
470,019.94
657.26
431,990.71
965.24
931,688.26
1,215.40
1,477,197.16
493.24
243,285.70
1,124.54
1,264,590.21
1,038.24
1,077,942.30
1,071.00
1,147,041.00
1,549.80
2,401,880.04
657.72
432,595.60
732.06
535,911.84
701.82
492,551.31
1,030.68
1,062,301.26
1,297.80
1,684,284.84
526.68
277,391.82
1,200.78
1,441,872.61
1,112.40
1,237,433.76
1,147.50
1,316,756.25
1,660.50
2,757,260.25
704.70
496,602.09
784.35
615,204.92
751.95
565,428.80
1,104.30
1,219,478.49
1,390.50
1,933,490.25
564.30
318,434.49
1,286.55
1,655,210.90
56,408.87 91,020,135.42

40595065 30 * ( 958.30 )
29

747.53

= 670.6893

Desviacin estandar

Clculo de coeficientes
Con

N=

50.00 aos

Y N = 0.54854

0.55

N = 1.16066

1.16

AO
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

CAUDAL
m/s
972.32
1,003.00
1,451.40
615.96
685.58
657.26
965.24
1,215.40
493.24
1,124.54

AO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

CAUDAL
m/s
1,038.24
1,071.00
1,549.80
657.72
732.06
701.82
1,030.68
1,297.80
526.68
1,200.78

AO
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

CAUDAL
m/s
1,112.40
1,147.50
1,660.50
704.70
784.35
751.95
1,104.30
1,390.50
564.30
1,286.55

4.-

Caudales mximos

Qmax = Qm

Q
(YN ln (T ) )
N

670.6893
( 0.53622 ln T )
1.11238
= 634.9959 + 602.9318 ln T

Qmax = 958.30
Qmax

5.-

6.-

Qmax =

774.89 +

Para

T=
Qmax =

50.00 aos
3,294.44 m/s

Para

T=
Qmax =

100.00 aos
3,740.86 m/s

Para

T=
Qmax =

500.00 aos
4,777.42 m/s

Para

T=
Qmax =

1,000.00 aos
5,223.84 m/s

Clculo de
Para
T=
=

50.00 aos
0.98

Para

T=
=

100.00 aos
0.99

Para

T=
=

500.00 aos
1.00

Para

T=
=

1,000.00 aos
1.00

Clculo del intervalo de confianza

Q =

1.14 * Q

Q =

1.14 * 670.6893
= 687.34m / s
1.11238
+/-

Q =
7.-

644.05 * Ln T

734.22 m/s

Clculo de caudal de diseo

Para
T=
Qd =

50.00 aos
4,028.65 m/s

Para

T=
Qd =

100.00 aos
4,475.08 m/s

Para

T=
Qd =

500.00 aos
5,511.64 m/s

Para

T=
Qd =

1,000.00 aos
5,958.06 m/s

METODO NASH
2.-

Para los mismos datos de la tabla 6.14, del ejemplo 6.7, calcular el caudal de diseo utilizando el mtodo de Nash, para perodos de retorno de 50, 100, 500 y 1000 aos.

DATOS
AO

CAUDAL
m/s
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

AO
2,241.00
1,237.95
5,130.00
1,903.50
3,078.00
834.30
922.05
1,260.90
1,051.65
1,243.35

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

CAUDAL
m/s
1,007.40
851.00
1,288.00
701.50
1,322.50
647.45
598.00
414.00
422.05
756.70

AO
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

CAUDAL
m/s
972.32
1,003.00
1,451.40
615.96
685.58
657.26
965.24
1,215.40
493.24
1,124.54

AO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

CAUDAL
m/s
1,038.24
1,071.00
1,549.80
657.72
732.06
701.82
1,030.68
1,297.80
526.68
1,200.78

SOLUCION
AO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991

Q
m/s
2,241.00
1,237.95
5,130.00
1,903.50
3,078.00
834.30
922.05
1,260.90
1,051.65
1,243.35
1,007.40
851.00
1,288.00
701.50
1,322.50
647.45
598.00
414.00
422.05
756.70
972.32
1,003.00
1,451.40
615.96
685.58
657.26
965.24
1,215.40
493.24
1,124.54
1,038.24
1,071.00

Q
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32

5,130.00
3,078.00
2,241.00
1,903.50
1,660.50
1,549.80
1,451.40
1,390.50
1,322.50
1,297.80
1,288.00
1,286.55
1,260.90
1,243.35
1,237.95
1,215.40
1,200.78
1,147.50
1,124.54
1,112.40
1,104.30
1,071.00
1,051.65
1,038.24
1,030.68
1,007.40
1,003.00
972.32
965.24
922.05
851.00
834.30

T
51.0000
25.5000
17.0000
12.7500
10.2000
8.5000
7.2857
6.3750
5.6667
5.1000
4.6364
4.2500
3.9231
3.6429
3.4000
3.1875
3.0000
2.8333
2.6842
2.5500
2.4286
2.3182
2.2174
2.1250
2.0400
1.9615
1.8889
1.8214
1.7586
1.7000
1.6452
1.5938

T/(T-1)
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.09
1.11
1.13
1.16
1.19
1.21
1.24
1.28
1.31
1.34
1.38
1.42
1.46
1.50
1.55
1.59
1.65
1.70
1.76
1.82
1.89
1.96
2.04
2.13
2.22
2.32
2.43
2.55
2.68

Q*X
-2.07
-1.76
-1.58
-1.45
-1.35
-1.26
-1.19
-1.13
-1.07
-1.02
-0.98
-0.93
-0.89
-0.86
-0.82
-0.79
-0.75
-0.72
-0.69
-0.67
-0.64
-0.61
-0.58
-0.56
-0.53
-0.51
-0.48
-0.46
-0.44
-0.41
-0.39
-0.37

-10,595.98
-5,417.58
-3,539.81
-2,760.29
-2,239.35
-1,960.09
-1,731.55
-1,571.50
-1,420.45
-1,327.98
-1,258.00
-1,201.19
-1,126.63
-1,064.10
-1,015.43
-955.88
-905.70
-830.11
-780.15
-739.89
-703.91
-653.88
-614.52
-580.13
-550.11
-512.92
-486.43
-448.36
-422.32
-381.86
-332.65
-306.80

Q
26,316,900.00
9,474,084.00
5,022,081.00
3,623,312.25
2,757,260.25
2,401,880.04
2,106,561.96
1,933,490.25
1,749,006.25
1,684,284.84
1,658,944.00
1,655,210.90
1,589,868.81
1,545,919.22
1,532,520.20
1,477,197.16
1,441,872.61
1,316,756.25
1,264,590.21
1,237,433.76
1,219,478.49
1,147,041.00
1,105,967.72
1,077,942.30
1,062,301.26
1,014,854.76
1,006,009.00
945,406.18
931,688.26
850,176.20
724,201.00
696,056.49

X
4.27
3.10
2.50
2.10
1.82
1.60
1.42
1.28
1.15
1.05
0.95
0.87
0.80
0.73
0.67
0.62
0.57
0.52
0.48
0.44
0.41
0.37
0.34
0.31
0.28
0.26
0.24
0.21
0.19
0.17
0.15
0.14

AO
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

CAUDAL
m/s
1,112.40
1,147.50
1,660.50
704.70
784.35
751.95
1,104.30
1,390.50
564.30
1,286.55

33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

1.-

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

1,549.80
657.72
732.06
701.82
1,030.68
1,297.80
526.68
1,200.78
1,112.40
1,147.50
1,660.50
704.70
784.35
751.95
1,104.30
1,390.50
564.30
1,286.55
56,408.87

784.35
756.70
751.95
732.06
704.70
701.82
701.50
685.58
657.72
657.26
647.45
615.96
598.00
564.30
526.68
493.24
422.05
414.00
56,408.87

1.5455
1.5000
1.4571
1.4167
1.3784
1.3421
1.3077
1.2750
1.2439
1.2143
1.1860
1.1591
1.1333
1.1087
1.0851
1.0625
1.0408
1.0200
229.46

2.83
3.00
3.19
3.40
3.64
3.92
4.25
4.64
5.10
5.67
6.38
7.29
8.50
10.20
12.75
17.00
25.50
51.00
229.46

-0.34
-0.32
-0.30
-0.27
-0.25
-0.23
-0.20
-0.18
-0.15
-0.12
-0.09
-0.06
-0.03
0.00
0.04
0.09
0.15
0.23
-30.02

Clculo de la media

Qm =

28748
= 958.30m / s
30

Qm =

1,128.18

Xm =

Media

17.8528
= 0.5951
30

Xm =
2.-

33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

-0.6004

Clculo de los parmetros a y b

a = Qm bX m
N

b=

X Q
i

i =1

i =1

b=

2
i

NX m Qm
NX m2

25554.28 30* ( 0.5951)( 958.30 )

17.6256 30* ( 0.5951)

b=

= 1206.3152

-1273.040828

a = 958.30 ( 1206.3152 )( 0.5951) = 240.4218

a=
3.-

363.7872166

Calculo de caudal mximo

T
Q = 240.4218 1206.3152 log log

T 1

4.-

Para

T=
Qmax =

50.00 aos
2,982.19 m/s

Para

T=
Qmax =

100.00 aos
3,368.21 m/s

Para

T=
Qmax =

500.00 aos
4,260.25 m/s

Para

T=
Qmax =

1,000.00 aos
4,643.75 m/s

Calculo de desviaciones estandar y covarianza

S xx = N xi2 ( xi )

Sqq = N Q ( Qi )
2
i

S xq = N Qi xi ( Qi )( xi )

Sxx =
Sqq =
Sxq =

5.-

SQQ = 30* 40595065 ( 28749 ) = 391346949

2

S xQ = 30 * ( 25554.28) 28749 * ( 17.8528) = 253378.2528

Clculo del intervalo de confianza

Q = 2

S qq

N 2 ( N 1)

Q =

6.-

S xx = 30 *17.6256 ( 17.8528) = 210.0455

635.2127302
1369046156
-808651.7398

+/-

S xq
1 1
2
+ ( X Xm)

S qq

S xx
N 2 S xx

#NUM!

Para

T=
X=
Qmax =

50.00 aos
-2.06
373.09 m/s

Para

T=
X=
Qmax =

100.00 aos
-2.36
427.37 m/s

Para

T=
X=
Qmax =

500.00 aos
-3.06
560.70 m/s

Para

T=
X=
Qmax =

1,000.00 aos
-3.36
620.05 m/s

Clculo de caudal de diseo

Para
T=
Qd =

50.00 aos
3,355.28 m/s

Para

T=
Qd =

100.00 aos
3,795.58 m/s

Para

T=
Qd =

500.00 aos
4,820.95 m/s

Para

T=
Qd =

1,000.00 aos
5,263.80 m/s

m/s

50

211.412679

-270.27
-243.18
-224.11
-200.96
-176.66
-158.95
-141.54
-120.94
-98.81
-80.85
-61.17
-39.58
-19.01
2.10
22.94
44.42
62.53
96.20
-50,043.42

615,204.92
572,594.89
565,428.80
535,911.84
496,602.09
492,551.31
492,102.25
470,019.94
432,595.60
431,990.71
419,191.50
379,406.72
357,604.00
318,434.49
277,391.82
243,285.70
178,126.20
171,396.00
91,020,135.42

0.12
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.05
30.73

METODO LEVEDIEV
2.-

Para los mismos datos de la tabla 6.14, del ejemplo 6.7, calcular el caudal de diseo utilizando el mtodo de Levediev, para perodos de retorno de 50, 100, 500 y 1000 aos.

DATOS
AO

CAUDAL
m/s
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

AO
2,241.00
1,237.95
5,130.00
1,903.50
3,078.00
834.30
922.05
1,260.90
1,051.65
1,243.35

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

CAUDAL
m/s
1,007.40
851.00
1,288.00
701.50
1,322.50
647.45
598.00
414.00
422.05
756.70

SOLUCION
AO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

1.-

Q
m/s
2,241.00
1,237.95
5,130.00
1,903.50
3,078.00
834.30
922.05
1,260.90
1,051.65
1,243.35
1,007.40
851.00
1,288.00
701.50
1,322.50
647.45
598.00
414.00
422.05
756.70
972.32
1,003.00
1,451.40
615.96
685.58
657.26
965.24
1,215.40
493.24
1,124.54
1,038.24
1,071.00
1,549.80
657.72
732.06
701.82
1,030.68
1,297.80
526.68
1,200.78
1,112.40
1,147.50
1,660.50
704.70
784.35
751.95
1,104.30
1,390.50
564.30
1,286.55
56,408.87

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

(Q/Qm - 1)^2 (Q/Qm - 1)^3

0.9729647
0.00946745
12.5823243
0.47229146
2.98700128
0.06785433
0.03338233
0.01383996
0.00460128
0.01042182
0.01146084
0.06036161
0.02006881
0.14303571
0.02966824
0.18156953
0.22084503
0.40073513
0.3917521
0.10842015
0.01908535
0.01231111
0.08208214
0.20613601
0.15390861
0.17423471
0.02085868
0.00597728
0.316743
1.0395E-05
0.00635515
0.00256859
0.13966673
0.17389449
0.12328012
0.14282125
0.00746846
0.02260542
0.28425801
0.00414142
0.00019558
0.00029334
0.22263581
0.14089828
0.09288085
0.11121057
0.00044794
0.05406505
0.24981274
0.01970631
21.51

28748
= 958.30m / s
30

Qm =

1,128.18

Media

Clculo del coefciente de variacion Cv

N

Qi

Q
i =1

Cv =

Cv =
3.-

0.99
0.10
3.55
0.69
1.73
-0.26
-0.18
0.12
-0.07
0.10
-0.11
-0.25
0.14
-0.38
0.17
-0.43
-0.47
-0.63
-0.63
-0.33
-0.14
-0.11
0.29
-0.45
-0.39
-0.42
-0.14
0.08
-0.56
0.00
-0.08
-0.05
0.37
-0.42
-0.35
-0.38
-0.09
0.15
-0.53
0.06
-0.01
0.02
0.47
-0.38
-0.30
-0.33
-0.02
0.23
-0.50
0.14
0.00

Clculo de la media

Qm =

2.-

Q/Qm - 1

0.655936269

Clculo del coeficiente de asimetra

N

Cs =

Qi

Q
i =1

Cs =

3
v

NC

3.508086502

Considernado que la avenida producida es por una lluvia

Cs = 3* Cv = 3* 0.6881 = 2.0643
Cs =

1.97

Por cosnigueinte escogiendo el mayor valor se tiene:

Cs =
4.-

3.51

Obtencin del coeficente K

Para el Perido de retorno
T=
P=
K=
T=
P=

50.00 aos
0.02
3.16
100.00 aos
0.01

0.96
0.00
44.63
0.32
5.16
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.00
-0.05
0.01
-0.08
-0.10
-0.25
-0.25
-0.04
0.00
0.00
0.02
-0.09
-0.06
-0.07
0.00
0.00
-0.18
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
-0.07
-0.04
-0.05
0.00
0.00
-0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.11
-0.05
-0.03
-0.04
0.00
0.01
-0.12
0.00
49.50

AO
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

CAUDAL
m/s
972.32
1,003.00
1,451.40
615.96
685.58
657.26
965.24
1,215.40
493.24
1,124.54

AO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

CAUDAL
m/s
1,038.24
1,071.00
1,549.80
657.72
732.06
701.82
1,030.68
1,297.80
526.68
1,200.78

AO
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

CAUDAL
m/s
1,112.40
1,147.50
1,660.50
704.70
784.35
751.95
1,104.30
1,390.50
564.30
1,286.55

K=

5.-

500.00 aos
0.00
5.50

T=
P=
K=

1,000.00 aos
0.00
7.64

P=
Cv =
Er =

2.00
0.66
0.95

P=
Cv =
Er =

1.00
0.66
1.00

P=
Cv =
Er =

0.20
0.66
1.08

P=
Cv =
Er =

0.10
0.66
1.10

Clculo del caudal mximo

Qmax = Qm ( KCv + 1)
Para

7.-

T=
P=
K=

Clculo de Er
Con

6.-

4.21

T=
Q max =

50.00 aos
3,466.62 m/s

T=
Q max =

100.00 aos
4,243.63 m/s

T=
Q max =

500.00 aos
5,198.25 m/s

T=
Q max =

1,000.00 aos
6,781.87 m/s

Clculo de lso intervalos de confianza

A = coeficiente que vara de 0.7 a 1.5, dependiendo del nmero de aos del registro. Cuantos ms aos
de registro haya, menor ser el valor del coeficiente. Si N es mayor de 40 aos, se toma el valor de 0.7.
A=

0.85

AEr Qmax
Q =
N
Para

7.-

T=
Q =

50.00 aos
417.29 m/s

T=
Qd=

100.00 aos
537.71 m/s

T=
Qd=

500.00 aos
711.37 m/s

T=
Qd=

1,000.00 aos
945.27 m/s

Clculo de caudales de diseo

Qd = Qmax + Q
Para

T=
Qd=

50.00 aos
3,883.91 m/s

T=
Qd=

100.00 aos
4,781.34 m/s

T=
Qd=

500.00 aos
5,909.61 m/s

T=
Qd=

1,000.00 aos
7,727.14 m/s