BlueChip PSU Stocks

NMDC
NTPC
SAIL
OIL
INDIA
NTPC
SAIL
OIL
INDIA
Come One, Come All

To
The BIG SALE of Stocks
Buy at Attractive Valuations
DearInvestors,
COME ONE, COME ALL TO THE BIG SALE OF STOCKS: BUY AT ATTRACTIVE VALUATIONS
TheGovernmentofIndiahadrecentlyputonblocksaleincertaincompanieslikeNMDC,NTPC,SAIL,OilIndia,
etcinordertoraisefundstomeetthealarmingfiscaldeficitofIndiaandotherreasonssuchastomakethese
companiesmorecompliantwiththepublicshareholdingnormsmandatedbySEBI.TheGovernmenthasraised
almostINR24,000crorethroughthedivestmentprogrammeinFY13bysheddingitsstakeinsevencompanies
namedNMDC,NTPC,SAIL,Nalco,HindustanCopper,OilIndiaandRCF.
As we know, out of the above mentioned companies, some of the companies are bluechip companies with
soundbusinessmodel,strongfinancialsoverthepastyears,healthybalancesheetwithsoundcashbalanceand
possessgrowthvisibilityoverthecomingyears.
LookingatthesharpstockpricecollapseFundamentalshaveNOTdeterioratedequally
PriortotheOFS(Offerforsale),thesestockshadalreadycorrectedandreachedtothelevelsofthefloorprice,
thus, making the valuations attractive and riskreward favourable for the investors. Many believe that apart
from the weak market sentiments, the spree of divestment has been the major dampener for the downward
trajectoryinthesePSUstockprices.Hence,westronglybelievethatthefallinthestockpricesdoesnotjustify
the strong valuation. We think that some of these PSU stocks are good investments in for a long term
perspectivebecauseofstrongfundamentals,goodvolumegrowthvisibilityleadingtoimprovedtopline,lower
interest burden which paves way for higher earnings and huge cash balance which leaves scope for higher
dividendpayoutsandalsoscopeforleverage.
WhywasOFSaFiasco?
OnemajorcriticismoftheOFSroute,infact,wasthatitdidntencourageretailinvestors,astherewasneither
anyquota(minimum35percentinthecaseofInitialPublicOffer/FollowOnPublicOffer)noraspecialdiscount
for such investors. Moreover, it was not easy for retail investors to bid at auctions which is what the OFS
essentiallyislikeFIIsandotherinstitutions.Theconsolation,though,isthatretailinvestorscanstillbuythe
sharesofNMDC,NTPC,SAIL&OilIndiagiventhattheircurrentmarketpricesofINR130,INR144,INR61and
INR521(ason4thApril13)arerulingbeloworalmostequaltothelevelsatwhichtheyweredivested.
Hence,webelievethatWeakmarketsentimentscoupledwithanegativethoughtofNotakersforOFSand
LICbailingoutthesamehadledtocorrectioninthesestocks.AttheCMP,werecommendaBUYtothe
some of the selected stocks named NMDC, NTPC, SAIL and Oil India on back of its attractive valuations
justifiedinthereport.Webelievetheunwarrantedpessimismmaysoonlietorestandinvestorsarelikelyto
chasethesestockssoonerthanlater,justifiedbytheirattractivevaluations.
-25thApril2013
Analyst:NehaMajithia
nmajithia@microsec.in
+03330512176
MicrosecResearch
OFSDetails
FloorPrice
(INRpershare)
Discount()/
Premium(+)atCMP
Company
OFSDate
NMDCLtd
12thDec'12
147
138
NTPCLtd
7thFeb'13
145
NalcoLtd
15thMar'13
40
SAILLtd
22ndMar'13
1stFeb'13
23rdNov'12
8thMar'13
OilIndiaLtd
HindustanCopperLtd
RCFLtd
CMP
ClosingPrice
priortoOFS
Discount()/Premium(+)
offeredbyGovt.
6%
159
142
2%
33
18%
63
62
510
511
155
45
No.ofsharesoffered AmountRaised
(InCr)
(INRinCr)
8%
39.65
5829
152
5%
78.33
11358
44
10%
12.89
516
2%
64
2%
24.04
1515
0%
539
5%
6.01
3065
93
40%
266
42%
8.87
1375
37
18%
44
3%
6.70
302
Total
23958
Note:CMPrepresentsclosingpriceason31stMarch,2013
ValuationBasedonOFSPrice
Floor
Price
Company
Mcap Mcap
(Based (Based
onOFS on
TTM
Price) CMP) Sales
CMP
EBITDA
Margin
NMDCLtd
147
138
54713
10090
7606
NTPCLtd
145
142 119558 117085
64118
16531
NalcoLtd
40
SAILLtd
58281
TTM
EBITDA
75.4%
TTM
PAT
TTM
PAT Margin EPS
P/E
(Based
P/E
onOFS (Based
Price) onCMP) BVPS
P/BV P/BV
(Based (Based
onOFS on
Price) CMP) ROE
EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA
(Basedon (Basedon
OFSPrice)
CMP)
D/E
6520
64.6%
16.4
8.9
8.4
61.5
2.4
2.2
33.3%
5.0
4.5
25.8% 10931
17.0%
13.1
11.0
10.8
87.2
1.7
1.6
13.2%
9.6
9.4
0.7
9.3%
2.4
16.4
13.5
45.5
0.9
0.7
7.4%
7.8
5.5
0.0
0.4
33
10309
8505
6728
792
11.8%
629
0.0
63
62
26022
25609
45196
5377
11.9%
3301
7.3%
8.0
7.9
7.8
96.4
0.7
0.6
9.2%
6.8
6.7
OilIndiaLtd
510
511
30656
30716
8868
4260
48.0%
3270
36.9%
54.4
9.4
9.4 737.0
0.7
0.7
20.7%
4.6
4.6
0.0
HindustanCopperLtd
155
93
14341
8605
1493
432
29.0%
305
20.4%
3.3
46.8
28.1
15.1
10.3
6.2
25.1%
32.1
18.9
0.1
45
37
2483
2041
4578
494
10.8%
277
6.0%
5.0
9.0
7.4
39.4
1.1
0.9
11.9%
6.3
5.4
0.2
RCFLtd
Note:AllfiguresinINRCrores;CMPrepresentsclosingpriceason31stMarch,2013
3yearForwardAnalysis
Sales
Company
CMP Mcap
FY12A
FY13E
EBITDA
FY14E
FY15E FY12A
FY13E
FY14E
PAT
FY15E FY12A
FY13E
PATMargin
FY14E
EPS
FY14E
FY15E FY12A
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
9398
79.8%
75.0%
67.7%
73.6%
7265
7872
64.5%
64.3%
61.7%
61.6%
18.3
17.3
18.6
19.9
23.5%
24.5%
25.1%
25.8%
9813 10296 11516 12555
15.1%
14.4%
14.0%
13.9%
11.9
12.5
14.1
15.2
NalcoLtd
33
7922
1145
794
1143
1258
17.6%
11.6%
15.2%
15.9%
850
571
799
869
13.1%
8.3%
10.6%
11.0%
3.3
2.3
3.2
3.5
SAILLtd
62 25609 45685 45329 51391 58181
6424
5828
7338
9623
14.1%
12.9%
14.3%
16.5%
3545
2910
3206
4119
7.8%
6.4%
6.2%
7.1%
8.6
7.2
8.0
10.0
3814
4678
5504
5602
40.1%
45.4%
47.7%
44.7%
3469
3400
3928
4215
36.4%
33.0%
34.0%
33.6%
57.7
54.9
64.3
70.1
428
466
560
NA
12.3%
6.8%
7.2%
NA
249
276
332
NA
7.2%
4.0%
4.3%
NA
4.5
5.0
6.1
NA
FY15E
FY12A
FY13E
OilIndiaLtd
511 12287
9519 10314 11536 12535
RCFLtd
37
3473
2041
6823
7780
NA
7360
FY13E
138 54712.9 11261 10709 11924 12775

7511
6889
FY15E FY12A
142 117086 64958 71409 82249 90482 15233 17501 20640 23328
6843
8072
FY13E
NTPCLtd
6500
8036
FY15E FY12A
NMDCLtd
8505
8983
EBITDAMargin
FY14E
3yearForwardAnalysisCont..
P/E(x)
Company
CMP
Mcap
FY12A
FY13E
NMDCLtd
138 54712.9
7.5
8.0
NTPCLtd
142 117086
BVPS
FY14E
7.4
FY15E
7.0
FY12A
FY13E
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY15E
FY12A
61.6
74.4
88.0
100.5
2.2
FY13E
1.9
EV/EBITDA(x)
FY14E
1.6
FY15E
FY12A
1.4
4.0
FY13E
3.8
FY14E
3.5
ROE(%)
FY14E
FY15E
3.2
33.1
25.0
22.3
20.6
13.9
11.9
11.4
10.1
9.3
90.1
97.8
106.2
114.3
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.2
11.5
9.1
7.7
6.8
13.8
13.2
13.8
NalcoLtd
33
8505
10.0
14.5
10.3
9.4
45.5
47
49
50.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
8.0
5.3
3.7
3.3
7.4
6.5
6.8
SAILLtd
62
25609
7.2
8.6
7.8
6.2
97.1
102.8
110.0
117.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
7.9
6.4
5.1
3.9
9.2
6.9
7.1
8.3
511
12287
8.9
9.3
7.9
7.3
295.1
329.4
369.2
411.4
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.2
4.7
3.8
3.2
3.1
20.8
17.3
17.9
17.9
37
2041
8.2
7.4
6.1
NA
39.3
43.5
48.8
NA
0.9
0.9
0.8
NA
9.0
5.9
4.9
NA
11.9
12.1
13.0
NA
OilIndiaLtd
RCFLtd
-35thApril2013
MicrosecResearch
HistoricalAnalysis
Sales
Sales
PAT
PAT
P/E
P/BV
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR (Based P/E
EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA (Based P/BV
P/BV P/BV
ROE
ROE
(Last10 (Last5 (Last10 (Last5 onOFS (Based P/E(Last P/E(Last (Basedon (Basedon (Last10
(Last5 onOFS (Based (Last10 (Last5 (Last10 (Last5
year)
year)
year)
year) price) onCMP) 10year) 5year) OFSPrice)
CMP)
year)
year)
price) onCMP) year)
year)
year)
year)
Company
NMDCLtd
24.9%
14.5%
36.8%
17.4%
8.9
8.4
17.7
23.2
5.0
4.5
9.8
13.4
2.4
2.2
5.9
7.7
NTPCLtd
13.2%
11.2%
10.5%
5.6%
11.0
10.8
17.5
18.0
9.6
9.4
9.4
11.7
1.7
1.6
2.3
2.5
13.7% 14.4%
NalcoLtd
9.8%
5.7%
5.0% 12.2%
16.4
13.5
9.6
14.0
7.8
5.5
7.0
8.9
0.9
0.7
2.3
2.1
18.9% 11.8%
NA 12.7%
35.2% 21.3%
SAILLtd
36.8% 37.8%
9.9%
3.0%
7.9
7.8
7.3
11.3
6.8
6.7
5.2
6.0
0.7
0.6
2.6
2.1
OilIndiaLtd
19.5%
23.1%
14.2%
14.2%
9.4
9.4
3.0
6.1
4.6
4.6
0.3
1.2
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.9
24.6% 22.5%
HindustanCopperLtd
13.1%
1.3%
NA
5.6%
46.8
28.1
81.4
188.2
32.1
18.9
9.8
13.4
10.3
6.2
5.9
7.7
15.6% 17.7%
RCFLtd
12.3%
4.6%
NA
9.5%
9.0
7.4
11.7
15.4
6.3
5.4
12.1
8.2
1.1
0.9
1.6
1.8
10.4% 12.3%
DomesticPeerComparison
EBITDAMargin
Company
CMP
Mcap
FY12A FY13E
FY14E
PATMargin
FY15E FY12A FY13E
FY14E
P/E(x)
FY15E FY12A FY13E
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
EV/EBITDA(x)
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
FY14E
ROE(%)
FY15E FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
NMDCLtd
138 54713
79.8%
75.0%
67.7%
73.6%
64.5%
64.3%
61.7%
61.6%
7.5
8.0
7.4
7.0
2.2
1.9
1.6
1.4
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.2
33.1
25.0
22.3
SesaGoa
156 13558
42.4%
34.0%
29.3%
28.9%
32.6%
89.8%
49.3%
45.4%
5.0
5.3
5.1
4.7
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
5.7
17.3
10.3
9.2
15.0
17.0
16.2
16.4
6.3
6.6
6.3
5.8
1.6
1.3
1.1
1.0
4.8
10.5
6.9
6.2
24.1
21.0
19.3
18.5
Average
CMP
Mcap
FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
FY14E
20.6
FY15E
NTPCLtd
142 117086
23.5%
24.5%
25.1%
25.8%
15.1%
14.4%
14.0%
13.9%
11.9
11.4
10.1
9.3
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.2
11.5
9.1
7.7
6.8
13.8
13.2
13.8
PowerGrid
106 49075
85.1%
85.4%
86.0%
86.2%
32.4%
31.8%
30.9%
30.2%
15.1
12.1
10.6
9.2
2.1
1.9
1.6
1.5
11.6
9.4
7.7
6.5
14.5
15.8
16.1
16.5
CESC
265
3325
17.7%
15.6%
17.4%
20.6%
4.2%
5.0%
5.7%
7.0%
12.2
9.9
7.7
5.5
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
7.1
7.2
5.7
4.0
5.2
6.5
7.5
10.8
96 22709
TataPowerCo.
TorrentPower
20.7%
20.4%
21.0%
21.1%
4.2%
3.7%
3.8%
4.5%
20.9
19.3
16.5
13.5
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
10.3
8.6
7.2
6.7
8.7
9.7
10.2
11.5
6615
31.4%
19.7%
22.0%
25.3%
16.7%
7.3%
9.4%
12.1%
5.3
11.3
7.7
5.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.8
5.8
7.8
6.1
4.7
23.8
9.8
13.7
16.3
62 17392
31.0%
38.3%
43.8%
44.6%
42.9%
21.0%
14.7%
14.8%
20.1
17.4
16.8
10.4
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
72.7
19.3
11.2
6.9
5.0
5.5
5.5
8.3
7.3
13.6
11.5
8.9
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
19.8
10.2
7.6
6.0
8.9
10.1
11.1
12.9
140
ReliancePower
13.9
Average
CMP
Mcap
FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
NalcoLtd
33
8505
17.6%
11.6%
15.2%
15.9%
13.1%
8.3%
10.6%
11.0%
10.0
14.5
10.3
9.4
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
8.0
5.3
3.7
3.3
7.4
6.5
HindalcoLtd
92 17616
9.5%
10.0%
10.6%
11.2%
4.2%
3.5%
3.4%
3.5%
5.2
6.4
6.0
5.3
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
7.7
6.4
5.5
4.8
11.2
8.6
8.4
8.9
SterliteIndustriesLtd
94 31595
24.8%
23.8%
25.4%
25.9%
11.8%
13.2%
13.7%
14.3%
6.5
5.5
4.9
4.5
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
4.0
3.6
3.1
2.8
11.0
11.3
11.5
11.6
7.2
8.8
6.4
0.7
0.6
0.5
6.6
5.1
3.6
9.9
8.3
Average
CMP
Mcap
FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
7.1
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
0.6
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
4.1
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
8.8
FY14E
6.8
9.1
FY15E
SAILLtd
62 25609
14.1%
12.9%
14.3%
16.5%
7.8%
6.4%
6.2%
7.1%
7.2
8.6
7.8
6.2
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
7.9
6.4
5.1
3.9
9.2
6.9
7.1
8.3
TataSteel
312 101987
9.4%
9.1%
11.1%
11.6%
4.1%
1.2%
2.7%
3.2%
5.7
17.7
8.1
6.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
7.7
6.3
4.9
4.5
13.7
3.1
8.6
10.0
JindalSteel&PowerLtd
348 32531
39.0%
35.9%
35.1%
35.4%
21.8%
19.8%
18.0%
16.3%
8.2
8.4
8.0
7.3
1.8
1.5
1.3
1.1
9.6
7.4
6.6
5.4
24.6
18.5
17.4
16.5
JSWSteelLtd
671 37791
17.9%
17.0%
17.7%
17.6%
1.6%
4.0%
4.7%
5.1%
29.6
9.8
7.9
6.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
5.7
4.3
3.9
3.6
3.3
8.9
10.5
11.0
BhushanSteelLtd
458 29374
32.3%
29.9%
29.1%
29.4%
10.5%
8.9%
8.7%
9.5%
9.7
9.7
7.7
5.7
1.3
1.1
1.0
0.8
9.6
9.2
7.3
5.9
14.8
12.5
13.8
15.8
12.1
10.8
6.6
1.1
1.0
0.8
8.1
6.7
4.7
13.1
10.0
Average
CMP
Mcap
FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
7.9
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
0.9
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
5.5
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
11.5
FY14E
12.3
FY15E
OilIndiaLtd
511 12287
40.1%
45.4%
47.7%
44.7%
36.4%
33.0%
34.0%
33.6%
8.9
9.3
7.9
7.3
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.2
4.7
3.8
3.2
3.1
20.8
17.3
17.9
17.9
ONGC
312 266932
33.9%
34.9%
37.0%
38.7%
19.2%
16.0%
17.1%
18.3%
9.5
10.6
9.1
7.8
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
4.4
4.5
4.0
3.5
22.4
17.2
17.8
18.7
HPCLLtd
285
9662
2.3%
2.5%
2.7%
2.7%
0.1%
0.5%
0.7%
0.7%
55.2
10.6
7.2
6.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
10.4
8.5
8.0
7.4
1.3
6.5
9.8
10.0
CairnindiaLtd
272 51881
80.0%
71.2%
66.3%
61.7%
66.9%
60.7%
54.0%
50.1%
6.5
4.5
5.1
5.4
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.7
5.9
3.0
3.2
3.4
17.9
21.5
16.4
14.1
20.0
8.7
6.8
1.4
1.2
1.0
6.4
4.9
4.3
15.6
15.6
Average
CMP
RCFLtd
TataChemicalsLtd
Mcap
FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
7.3
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
1.1
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
4.6
FY14E
FY15E FY12A FY13E
15.5
FY14E
15.1
FY15E
37
2041
12.3%
6.8%
7.2%
NA
7.2%
4.0%
4.3%
NA
8.2
7.4
6.1
NA
0.9
0.9
0.8
NA
9.0
5.9
4.9
NA
11.9
12.1
13.0
NA
322
8205
17.1%
15.5%
22.3%
16.0%
7.3%
5.9%
6.4%
6.8%
8.3
9.6
8.4
7.8
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
6.2
6.1
5.6
5.3
14.1
13.2
17.8
13.7
RallisIndiaLtd
115
2230
16.5%
15.1%
16.0%
17.0%
8.0%
8.7%
9.7%
10.4%
22.5
17.9
13.8
11.5
4.0
3.6
3.1
2.6
12.2
11.1
9.04
7.5
18.8
20.4
23.1
24.6
CoromandelInternationalLtd
185
5228
12.4%
9.2%
10.1%
10.2%
6.5%
5.6%
6.0%
6.2%
8.2
10.6
7.9
6.5
2.2
2.1
1.8
1.5
8.2
9.0
6.8
5.7
29.3
19.6
24.4
25.1
11.8
11.4
9.1
8.6
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.7
8.9
8.0
6.6
6.2
18.5
16.3
19.6
21.1
Average
-45thApril2013
MicrosecResearch
GlobalPeerComparison
Company
EBITDAMargin
P/E(x)
PATMargin
P/BV(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
ROE(%)
CMP Mcap FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E
NMDCLtd
ValeSaPrefA
9991 79.8% 75.0% 67.7% 73.6% 64.5% 64.3% 61.7% 61.6%
7.5
8.0
7.4
7.0
2.2
1.9
1.6
1.4
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.2
33.1
25.0
22.3
20.6
16 56149 37.8% 45.1% 42.1% 42.0% 24.1% 24.7% 23.8% 20.5%
7.5
7.3
7.4
7.9
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
5.8
5.5
5.4
5.4
6.6
14.3
13.5
12.0
RioTintoltd
60 25920 30.4% 37.7% 38.9% 39.6% 18.3% 18.8% 19.6% 19.6%
11.8
10.0
8.8
8.7
2.3
1.9
1.6
1.5
6.0
5.6
5.1
4.8
6.0
20.6
19.5
18.4
BHPBilliton
34 109413 46.3% 42.8% 45.8% 33.8% 23.7% 19.5% 22.4% 22.6%
10.6
13.3
11.2
10.3
2.7
2.5
2.2
1.9
7.5
7.0
5.9
5.5
25.1
18.8
20.3
18.9
9.4
9.6
8.7
8.5
2.1
1.8
1.6
1.4
5.8
5.4
5.0
4.7
14.7
19.7
18.9
17.5
Average
NTPCLtd
3 21777 23.5% 24.5% 25.1% 25.8% 15.1% 14.4% 14.0% 13.9%
11.9
11.4
10.1
9.3
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.2
11.5
9.1
7.7
6.8
13.8
13.2
13.8
13.9
ChinaResourcesPowerHoldingsCoLtd
3 14287 29.3% 32.4% 32.3% 33.0% 11.9% 12.8% 12.7% 13.0%
15.0
12.0
10.7
9.6
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
10.1
8.5
7.7
6.8
14.7
15.6
15.6
16.0
PowerAssetsHoldingsLtd
9 20137 66.7% 79.4% 79.6% 82.6% 93.4% 93.9% 95.5% 96.9%
16.0
15.5
14.9
14.8
2.5
2.3
2.2
1.9
23.0
20.4
20.0
19.4
16.1
15.5
15.1
13.8
HuanengPowerInternationalInc
15.3
10.7
9.7
7.9
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.2
7.3
6.4
6.1
5.5
11.0
15.0
14.8
16.2
14.5
12.4
11.3
10.4
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
13.0
11.1
10.4
9.6
13.9
14.8
14.8
15.0
3791 21.8% 24.1% 24.0% 25.2%
4.4%
6.1%
6.3%
7.2%
Average
NalcoLtd
AlcoaInc
1618 17.6% 11.6% 15.2% 15.9% 13.1%

911
8.3% 10.6% 11.0%
10.0
14.5
10.3
9.4
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
8.0
5.3
3.7
3.3
7.4
6.5
6.8
8.5% 12.3% 13.5% 13.7%
1.1%
2.8%
35.5
14.9
9.9
9.3
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
9.7
6.4
5.5
5.4
1.4
5.0
6.3
6.6
2.5%
7.9% 10.5% 14.1%
10.2
UnitedCo.RUSAL
761 11.2% 11.2% 12.5% 16.7%
AluminiumCropofChina
778
NA
4.7%
5.7%
3.9%
7.1% 0.6% 2.2% 1.1%
4.1%
0.6%
Average
NA
8.3
6.3
4.5
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
NA
14.7
12.5
8.6
0.5
6.1
8.2
3.9
9.8
39.0
39.0
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.7
NA
22.5
17.8
13.7
17.2
6.9
5.1
4.6
13.9
7.0
3.1
15.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
8.8
12.2
9.9
7.8
2.2
2.3
4.0
7.0
SAILLtd
POSCOLtd
4776 14.1% 12.9% 14.3% 16.5%
293 25278
7.8%
6.4%
6.2%
7.1%
7.2
8.6
7.8
6.2
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
7.9
6.4
5.1
3.9
9.2
6.9
7.1
9.8% 10.6% 11.0% 11.3%
3.8%
4.4%
4.6%
4.7%
12.2
9.7
8.5
8.0
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.6
7.8
7.2
6.6
6.3
6.3
6.9
7.3
7.0
1.4% 3.3%
3.5%
4.2%
21.1
14.1
11.9
10.0
0.7
1.0
0.9
1.0
8.7
14.8
8.5
7.7
3.2
3.9
7.5
8.7
9.3% 10.2% 0.8% 1.9%
0.4%
1.1%
19.5
10.2
43.3
17.2
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
7.1
9.9
7.4
6.6
2.7
6.2
1.9
3.9
5.3
1.5
17.9
10.3
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
7.9
9.6
6.9
6.1
4.0
0.9
5.9
7.0
Nipponsteel
2 23457
8.9%
8.0% 11.6% 12.6%
KobeSteel
9.6%
7.2%
3645
Average
8.3
OilIndiaLtd
10
ExxonMobil
90 403733 13.6% 18.7% 18.6% 20.0%
ChevronCorp.
5746 40.1% 45.4% 47.7% 44.7% 36.4% 33.0% 34.0% 33.6%

7.3%
8.0%
8.2%
119 230831 21.0% 23.6% 24.5% 23.6% 10.7% 10.0% 10.5%
PetroChina
1 226099 14.8% 14.8% 14.5% 14.4%
5.3%
5.4%
5.5%
8.5%
8.9
9.3
7.9
7.3
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.2
4.7
3.8
3.2
3.1
20.8
17.3
17.9
17.9
11.9
11.3
10.8
9.7
2.4
2.2
2.1
1.8
6.0
5.1
5.0
4.7
28.0
21.2
19.7
19.0
9.8%
9.4
9.6
9.5
9.0
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.7
20.3
16.7
16.0
14.4
5.0%
13.9
13.9
11.6
11.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
6.7
5.9
5.7
5.9
11.2
10.8
10.9
10.9
11.0
11.0
10.0
9.4
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
5.4
4.7
4.5
4.4
20.1
16.5
16.1
15.5
Average
RCFLtd
AgriumInc
YaraInternationalInc
CFIndustriesHoldingCo.
NA
7.2%
4.0%
4.3%
NA
8.2
7.4
6.1
NA
0.9
0.9
0.8
NA
9.0
5.9
4.9
NA
11.9
12.1
13.0
NA
97 14546 16.3% 15.6% 14.9% 14.8%
380 12.3%
6.8%
7.2%
8.9%
8.6%
8.2%
8.0%
10.3
9.8
9.8
9.4
2.1
1.8
1.5
1.4
6.7
6.5
6.5
6.3
22.4
19.1
16.5
15.6
45 12905 17.4% 17.4% 16.4% 16.3% 12.5% 10.8% 10.8% 10.0%
7.1
8.1
8.3
8.0
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.2
5.52
5.28
5.51
5.3
22.9
17.5
14.9
14.3
190 11994 54.6% 51.2% 47.6% 47.5% 29.6% 26.7% 24.6% 23.2%
6.8
7.4
8.2
8.0
2.0
1.6
1.4
1.2
3.8
3.8
4.3
4.3
35.4
24.2
18.2
15.3
8.1
8.1
8.1
8.4
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.2
6.2
5.4
5.3
5.3
23.1
18.2
15.7
15.1
Average
-55thApril2013
MicrosecResearch
MicrosecResearch:PhoneNo.:913330512100Email:microsec_research@microsec.in
AjayJaiswal:President,InvestmentStrategies,HeadofResearch:ajaiswal@microsec.in
FundamentalResearch
Name
Sectors
Designation
EmailID
NitinPrakashDaga
IT,Telecom&Entertainment
AVPResearch
npdaga@microsec.in
NaveenVyas
Midcaps,MarketStrategies
AVPResearch
nvyas@microsec.in
GargiDeb
Agriculture&Pharma
ResearchAnalyst
gdeb@microsec.in
SutapaRoy
Economy
ResearchAnalyst
sroy@microsec.in
SanjeevJain
BFSI
ResearchAnalyst
sjain@microsec.in
AnikDas
MidCap
ResearchAnalyst
adas4@microsec.in
NehaMajithia
MidCap
ResearchAnalyst
nmajithia@microsec.in
SoumyadipRaha
MidCap
ExecutiveResearch
sraha@microsec.in
SarojSingh
MidCap
ExecutiveResearch
ssingh2@microsec.in
KapilBhati
MidCap
AssociateResearchExecutive
kbhati@microsec.in
Technical&DerivativeResearch
VinitPagaria
Derivatives&Technical
VP
vpagaria@microsec.in
RanajitSaha
TechnicalResearch
Sr.Manager
rksaha@microsec.in
InstitutionalDesk
DhruvaMittal
InstitutionalEquities
Sr.Manager
dmittal@microsec.in
PujaShah
InstitutionalDesk
Dealer
pdshah@microsec.in
PMSDivision
SiddharthSedani
PMSResearch
AVP
ssedani@microsec.in
KetanMehta
PMSSales
AVP
ksmehta@microsec.in
Research:FinancialPlanningDivision
ShrivardhanKedia
FPDProducts
ManagerResearch
skedia@microsec.in
ResearchSupport
SubhabrataBoral
ResearchSupport
Asst.ManagerTechnology
Recommendation
Expectedabsolutereturns(%)over12months
StrongBuy
>20%
Buy
between10%and20%
Hold
between0%and10%
Underperform
between0%and10%
Sell
<10%
sboral@microsec.in
MICROSECRESEARCHISALSOACCESSIBLEONBLOOMBERGAT<MCLI>
-65thApril2013
MicrosecResearch
-75thApril2013
MicrosecResearch
Disclaimer:
This document is prepared by the research team of Microsec Capital Ltd. (hereinafter referred as MCL) circulated for purely information purpose to the
authorizedrecipientandshouldnotbereplicatedorquotedorcirculatedtoanypersoninanyform.ThisdocumentshouldnotbeinterpretedasanInvestment/
taxation/legaladvice.Whiletheinformationcontainedinthereporthasbeenprocuredingoodfaith,fromsourcesconsideredtobereliable,nostatementinthe
reportshouldbeconsideredtobecompleteoraccurate.Therefore,itshouldonlyberelieduponatonesownrisk.
MCL is not soliciting any action based on the report. No indication is intended from the report that the transaction undertaken based on the information
contained in this report will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific
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5thApril2013
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NMDC

Come One, Come All

142 119558 117085

9813 10296 11516 12555

62 25609 45685 45329 51391 58181

9519 10314 11536 12535

138 54712.9 11261 10709 11924 12775

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

9991 79.8% 75.0% 67.7% 73.6% 64.5% 64.3% 61.7% 61.6%

16 56149 37.8% 45.1% 42.1% 42.0% 24.1% 24.7% 23.8% 20.5%

60 25920 30.4% 37.7% 38.9% 39.6% 18.3% 18.8% 19.6% 19.6%

34 109413 46.3% 42.8% 45.8% 33.8% 23.7% 19.5% 22.4% 22.6%

3 21777 23.5% 24.5% 25.1% 25.8% 15.1% 14.4% 14.0% 13.9%

3 14287 29.3% 32.4% 32.3% 33.0% 11.9% 12.8% 12.7% 13.0%

9 20137 66.7% 79.4% 79.6% 82.6% 93.4% 93.9% 95.5% 96.9%

3791 21.8% 24.1% 24.0% 25.2%

1618 17.6% 11.6% 15.2% 15.9% 13.1%

8.3% 10.6% 11.0%

8.5% 12.3% 13.5% 13.7%

7.9% 10.5% 14.1%

761 11.2% 11.2% 12.5% 16.7%

7.1% 0.6% 2.2% 1.1%

4776 14.1% 12.9% 14.3% 16.5%

9.8% 10.6% 11.0% 11.3%

9.3% 10.2% 0.8% 1.9%

8.0% 11.6% 12.6%

90 403733 13.6% 18.7% 18.6% 20.0%

5746 40.1% 45.4% 47.7% 44.7% 36.4% 33.0% 34.0% 33.6%

119 230831 21.0% 23.6% 24.5% 23.6% 10.7% 10.0% 10.5%

1 226099 14.8% 14.8% 14.5% 14.4%

97 14546 16.3% 15.6% 14.9% 14.8%

45 12905 17.4% 17.4% 16.4% 16.3% 12.5% 10.8% 10.8% 10.0%

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