Kenyas politics: A short-term political

landscape (Shortsited approach featuring a

tribal analysis)
When the Jubilee Alliance Party JAP was hatched, several things were in mind.
William Ruto had pressured the president to craft away in which he will have a
chance to get the rich central and central rift votes. The votes are enough to put
you in the runoff, if all the other major 3 tribes, do not unite.
The thinking of this is
With each party, namely URP and TNA commanding different areas, notably
URP in Rift Valley and TNA the Mount Kenya voting bloc, the Jubilee Coalition
was intact because there is power. With the absence of power, the coalition would
be a shell, see what is happening to CORD. No one really uses it because it does
not make sense.
Rather than having by-elections run by parties that dominated the area, the JAP
thought that it can venture into other areas. Think of a by-election in a place like
Kisii-Nyanza, which party could have run there? The two parties receive rather
Luke-warmish reception. Yet a respectable voting block exists there. The Teso
showed last election that they can think beyond Luo Nyanza by voting URP MPs.
It would mean that they would be forced to cede any chance of winning to the
established ODM in the region.
The reasoning is that, Raila Odinga proved too strong during last year election,
see the number of governors that CORD acquired for example, it means that his
influence cannot be ignored. Allowing him to get mileages in such regions like the

Maasai community, the Kisii community, the Somali and to some extent the Meru
community is not wise.
The feeling is that, the voting of 2013 presidential elections had the kikuyu
community motivated to go to the ballot. Will 2017 be the same? Certainly not.
How do you account for the 5-10% votes of the community that will not be
interested to vote?
With the presidency and the government machinery, one can try to win the votes
back from the votes of lesser candidates during last general election, read others.
The problem with this is that, during the formation of the government, point men
Najib Balala, Charity Ngilu and others key figures for the Jubilee Coalition are in
government and therefore cannot campaign publicly or involved in any political
interests. This means lost votes and key mileage zones. This, however, cancels out
with the poor organization of the opposition in parliament and in opposition.
President Kenyatta would want to capture power in 2017; no doubt, he will do so
unless he does something stupid. If the ICC, which we do not always know its
motive, finds his deputy guilty it can complicate his candidature. He may be
forced to pick a Kalenjin vice president or choose another tribe to partner with
during the election. Such an occurrence would mean that a Kalenjin will quickly
rocket to stardom and would most likely partner an opposing combination. I do
not want to look at every scenario, but see the strong subplots.
Assuming that everything stays as it is, Raila Odinga will run for presidency, we
cannot for sure tell what happens to Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi,
after all, they do not have any strong indicators. During last time out, Kalonzo
was forced to team up with Raila to push out a better combination involving a

third strong candidate, lets say that of Mudavadi, Kalonzo and Raila. This time
out, Kalonzo will take whatever he can get; he must have been the most frustrated
of them all with the outcome of the election last year. He would really want to see
his name on the ballot, or maybe not, maybe yes.
The sure candidates for 2017 are Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga, may be
others. Maybe I do not care whether there are unless it will be Mike Sonko
partnering Kalonzo Musyoka or Mudavadi. We all know it is not going to happen,
Sonko will want to leave Evans Kidero jobless. He has what it takes to trump him.
A Kalonzo Musyoka and Musa Mudavadi coalition is at best laughable unless
Raila is not running and he does not back a different Luhya for presidency. So
many probabilities though. My guess is that, the bill in parliament hoping to
insert an age limit for a presidential candidate will be shelved. The reason is that,
once barred, it may increase the stock of the Luhya voting block if he supports
one of them. The Luhya vote can only benefit an opposition candidate if they are
running for presidency. Therefore, for predictability reasons, the bill looks like a
bad idea.
A battle between Uhuru and Raila we all know how it ends, Raila in court of
course. This solves the 2017 question. What about the 2022 question? Everyone
will want to bring his stock politically so that he gets a chance to partner Ruto,
who by then will be the top dog.
A marathoner will win the battle for 2022. The person who started or has started
now hoping to increase political stock throughout. To win the presidency, you
need full support of your tribe. As much as we may want to mention policies or
manifestos, give them to educated (enlightened) minorities. They are the only
people who look at them.

Apart from the support of your tribe, your tribe must be big enough, more than
10%. In addition, you must have the power to attract the tribes that are closer to
your tribe. For example, if you are a Kalenjin, attract the pastoral communities
votes. If you are a kikuyu, attract the Aembu, Ameru and to some extent the
Kamba. Some Swahili people can also like you a little. If you are a Luhya, attract
the Luo (not gonna happen soon) and Kisiis. If you are a Luo, attract the Kisiis
and the Luhya. If you are a Kamba, read not Kalonzo, attract a few GEMA votes.
In short, we have narrowed down to the fact that, only a kikuyu, Kalenjin, Luo,
Luhya and Kamba communities can be presidents, for the time being.
With the continued sure lack of direction for the Luhya community, ignore their
candidates. With the presence of Uhuru Kenyatta, ignore the 2017 presidency of a
Kalenjin, and a sure candidature (contention) for 2022.
What is the JAP strategy?
Whip
It sounds lame, but whipping is the oldest political tool for success, whip the votes
in parliament and in the electorate. To do this, you need a big party that can
trump you if you go out of line. To tame ego of the likes of Isaac Rutto and others
who are not in the jubilee government fully, you need a party that will force them
in.
The formation of the JAP was the reason. With so many parties in Kenya, how do
you whip? Ask Franklin Bett, what whipping is. If you do not conform, you are
whipped. With URP and TNA still enjoying grass root presence, how do you
whip? Ensure that the two parties do not give out a single certificate. Can you do
that? Yes, you can but it is hard. Not everyone in Kenya is a pushover. Only two

parties need to crack that whip, URP and TNA. All the others are irrelevant. The
APK party of the Ameru and the KNC party of Peter Kenneth will however fancy
their chances.
Primaries
Ensure that only the best pass the primaries. In short, the primaries should
confirm your position. If you are the Nakuru County JAP candidate for senate,
you are the senate elect. However, the kikuyu are greedy and it is no wonder you
see TNA and URP parties ending up in the ballot. Unless you make the
candidature of such people irrelevant, you will have failed in the primaries. JAP
will test the waters in existing by-elections to see how it pans out. To make it
tough for candidates, they will ensure that the primaries are conducted optimally.
Optimally such that defections will be useless.
Strength in strongholds
By whipping all the members, you are sure that, all strongholds remain
strongholds. You will have like five candidates seeking the senatorial position in
Narok County through JAP. They will promote JAP throughout the county
during the primaries to an extent that, the whole county is painted, red and
yellow. That is the only party the electorate will know. Unlike the current
situation facing the opposition, which are likely to present the Kibaki PNU-like
candidature, with a strong presidential candidate running with a shell of a party.
Past the 2017, the kikuyu do not seem to have a ready candidate for the
Presidency nor the Vice Presidency. Will they want these positions? Certainly yes.
The Ruto team thought they could take advantage of that by cornering Uhuru
into ensuring that the kikuyu do not have a ready candidate. This favours Rutos

candidature as president, but it does not increase his chances of winning. If the
whipping works, chances are that the effect can trickle down to the Kamba
community, notice that the political stock of one Alfred Mutua and that of Mike
Sonko are on the rise. The candidature and stock of one Evans Kidero faces stiff
competition from Mike Sonko and other subplots, the Mumias subplot for
example, might work against him. Now that he is seen as Jubilee Government
sympathiser, the ODM brigade might decide to whip him.
One Kithure Kindiki might think that he has a political future towards the
Presidency, but the Ameru have little to offer in terms of numbers and so does
him to any other candidate, maybe a majority leader. Their best chance is
remaining folded under the GEMA. Their main undoing is their clan-like
politicking. Past the 2017 elections, Raila may be looking at a long way into
politics. What I know is that, unless the constitution changes, Raila will run all
elections from now henceforth, until he dies. He will be challenging for presidency
against the Deputy President William Ruto. If they change the constitution and
bar his candidature, a Luo presidency or candidature will be ceremonial. However,
a sure Luhya presidential candidature. The problem is, who? They need to choose
really fast who it is.
Unless, the luhya unite and run for presidency, truly unite (which we all know
they will never do). After all, they have everything they need. They do not know
hunger, they do not know water shortage, and they read about tribal skirmishes
(yes! read), they do not care about politics. They do not know adversity. In short,
they have nothing to lose in elections. Kikuyu president, Kalenjin president or
whatever. Politically, they lack a head; they think that their Presidency can only
come from Raila Odinga or so I think. If Raila is ineligible to run for President, he

may support one of their own. That is if he is ineligible. That is a strong

combination because it will have the Luo and the Luhya. That combination will
automatically enable them to get at least the top two that is if they are motivated
to vote for their own. Unfortunately this will be seen as a Western-Nyanza
candidature because the Luo will look to get the Vice presidency. They will score
decently though and an ability to throw a bone to one other tribe, say Kamba sees
them in the top two. However, that is very tricky.
We are left with Ruto, Raila or maybe not Kalonzo who would want to reduce the
Masaku governors interest in representing the Kamba. The absence of Raila will
mean the presence of a Luhya. A void is left in the GEMA population whose
voting block is sweet even for a newcomer. Any newcomer, assuming that he is
Kikuyu; he will seek with certainty the Vice-Presidency at the bare minimum from
potential suitors. Newcomer or not. Who is this Kikuyu? One William Kabogo is
a strong candidate but I doubt he is interested. If he is interested, will his rugged
character get the backing of all Kikuyus? He has the money and he will be able to
fund his campaign fully. For a President, he may be too brutish and I dont think
he will be interested in deputizing for Ruto in JAP. If he does, it can make a little
political relevance. His politics is the brash ones, where you directly tell your
electorate to elect you. The Presidency will require someone different. My best
guess is Peter Kenneth, he lacks the brutal outsider mentality of Martha Karua
and he is to certainty invite smaller parties. He is mild mannered. He looks affable
and he will not have a problem getting the young men and women, mostly
women, their vote. Perhaps he will be the most decent candidate as at now.
How will he fare? If he will have chances, definitely going against JAP is not an
option; Remaining at KNC will surely be a travesty. Remaining noncommittal

would give outsiders something to think of especially the Kiambu and Muranga
politicians (Read William Kabogo). Surely, he must commit to a cause and go for
it. Parliament is a good avenue to channel the love back for those who thought he
betrayed them by risking a Raila presidency (running against Uhuru). I am sure
most have forgotten or will soon. One thing that will hurt his politics is his
silence, Kenyans hate silence, it is deafening to them. Just the other day, stories of
him returning in the football scene were cooking and still are cooking. That does
not help even his ego. What if the rumours are true? If he can clean the dirt in
Kenyan football, he will be one of the few loved Kenyans, by Kenyans. That will
require a miracle though, therefore, it is inconsequential.
How will he become a candidate then? By joining JAP, he can get muddied. If he
chooses to run against them, he will be seen as selfish. It may not make any
difference though since he will be trampled with his KNC. I am assuming a
perfect execution of JAP agenda. Any misdemeanour from the rotten political
losers in the partys leadership will automatically give him a chance to run with
KNC, but not for President. He will have a few members in parliament if the
primaries are faulty. A less than tight JAP organization has Ruto as the biggest
loser, so his camp must ensure that this is tight. Otherwise, they are better off
alone at URP.
What Kenneth does is to complicate the candidature of Ruto. He brings a more
likeable personality likely to gain many unconventional votes (across tribes and in
minority communities and so on). The question is, can he raise enough capital to
paint the country his name? Certainly not. Therefore, he must have a day today
involvement with the country and the people. Good media presentation will
empower him. He will be hot as suitors will be chasing him up and down, even if

he promises an appointment like that of Mututho, they will be chasing it. Ruto is
a likeable character especially in some sections of the country; kikuyu community
will certainly fancy their chances against him. Most of them are in central and
those in central rift will vote for him, they are not much though. I hail from there
so I know why we will vote for him even if the whole of central votes otherwise.
Maybe not the way he would want but the central rift people will try to vote him.
There will be no need for a coalition between them two unless; a strong
Luo/Luhya candidature exists. Unless Ruto cedes the Presidency to Kenneth,
which he wont and Kenneth will probably be uninterested, their candidatures will
push each other apart because of what they both stand for. Ruto will look to use
the JAP grass root presence to get key mileage. Kenneth will most likely try to
drum a likeable candidate maybe from Kambaland. Notice that all this is
dependent on Railas presence in politics. His absence will mean a strong presence
of a Luhya backed by the Luo..