Works Cited

"2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa." Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 06 Mar. 2015. Web. 08 Mar. 2015. <
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/>.
"Ebola Virus Disease." WHO. WHO, 2015. Web. 03 Mar. 2015
. <http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/en/>.

HOW MANY EBOLA CASES?

By: Albert Coates, Kira Stiggers, Nick Sun

BACKGROUND

Ebola is a deadly virus that infects people through bodily

fluids and someone must have direct contact with an
infected person in order to contract the disease

Sierra Leone is one of the affected countries in africa where

the growth of the amount of ebola patients has increased
exponentially.

Total Cases and Growth (Graph)

Total Cases and Growth (Reasoning)

Ebola is transmitted through human bodily fluids making it less infectious than
something like the common cold but in places that lack proper isolation and sanitation
may not be able to prevent the spread of the disease.

Sierra Leone in most cases lacks the ability to isolate and treat people who are
infected with the deadly virus.

We believe the graph may be inaccurate due to the decrease in cases as countries
continue to send aid for the ebola patients. For example, it was estimated that there
would be around 8,000 cases by September 30, 2014 but as you can see in the graph,
the number of cases is well below 8,000.

Equation with Explanation

y=161.037207996

(x-90)

The first number in our equation is 16 because that is our starting

value (the value that the data started at).
We got the 2nd number (the growth factor) by averaging out all of
the growth factors from each day to the next.
We came up with (x-90) because our data began 90 days after
March 1st.
We plugged in 228 for x and the answer we got for the number of
cases was 2475.187665 which matched the number we came up
with after plugging our equation into excel.

Equation Explanation Continued

We also plugged in 249 for x and came up with 5330.784316 as the
number of cases which also matches our equation.
We chose these points because they are similar to the actual number of
cases from the original data. 228 days after March 1st, the number of
cases in the original data was 2950 which is pretty close to 2475. 249
days after March 1st, the number of cases in the original data was 5338
which is also pretty close to 5330.
About 325 days after March 1st would mark the day that cases would
double.

Inverse Equation
First divided both sides by 16 to get the base
by itself then we did the circle
Used the testing points 8,456 cases and 7,312
cases.
Our results were slightly different from the
actual number of days after march 1st.

Graph of Our Equation

Both Graphs

Conclusion
The Ebola crisis has decreased in intensity over
time in Sierra Leone. We predict that the
number of cases would become exponential
decay around the end of february because of
the aid being provided in the affected areas.

Any Questions?