2004

Escenario Macroeconmico
2005
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

5.0%
4.4%
4.4%
5.9%

4.5%
4.0%

4.0%
4.0%

4.0%
4.0%

5.9%

5.9%

5.9%

5.00%

4.92%

4.80%

4.63%

4.63%

4.5%
3.8%
3.8%
2.0%
4.1%

4.5%
4.0%
4.0%
1.8%

4.5%
4.0%

4.5%
4.0%

4.5%
4.0%

2.4%

3.1%

4.0%

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

4.63%

4.63%

4.63%

4.63%

4.63%

4.63%

INFLACION
5.5%
Corfivalle (Documento Feb 2005)
Corfinsura (Documento Oct 2004)
Suvalor (Documento Abr 2005)
Javier Fernandez Riva y Asociados (Documento F
Fedesarrollo
Gobierno
Citigroup
ANIF
JP Morgan (Documento Mar 2005)
Santander Investment
Inflacin Esperada Promedio
5.50%

5.5%
5.8%
5.4%
4.9%
5.0%
5.0%
5.2%
5.5%
5.5%
5.0%
5.28%

PIB
3.6%
Corfivalle (Documento Feb 2005)
Corfinsura (Documento Oct 2004)
Suvalor (Documento Abr 2005)
Javier Fernandez Riva y Asociados (Documento F
Fedesarrollo
Gobierno
Citigroup
ANIF
JP Morgan (Documento Mar 2005)
Santander Investment
PIB Esperado Promedio
3.60%

4.0%
3.5%
3.5%
3.0%
4.0%
4.0%
3.8%
3.8%
3.5%
3.8%
3.69%

3.63%

3.58%

3.63%

3.87%

4.17%

4.17%

4.17%

4.17%

4.17%

4.17%

4.17%

Combinado PIB e Inflacin

9.16%

8.80%

8.67%

8.61%

8.68%

8.99%

8.99%

8.99%

8.99%

8.99%

8.99%

8.99%

7.9%
8.4%
8.1%
7.3%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.2%
8.2%
8.01%

8.4%
8.8%
8.3%
8.9%
8.5%
8.2%

9.2%
9.1%
8.7%
9.5%

9.5%
9.1%

9.7%
9.1%

9.7%
9.1%

9.5%

9.5%

9.5%

8.53%

9.12%

9.36%

9.43%

9.43%

9.43%

9.43%

9.43%

9.43%

9.43%

9.43%

5.2%
3.5%
6.4%
13.4%
5.5%

3.7%
8.0%
6.0%
8.0%
5.7%

2.4%
9.8%
6.5%
3.6%

2.0%
2.5%

1.5%
3.0%

1.5%
3.0%

3.6%

3.6%

3.6%

3.1%
4.6%
9.8%
5.0%
6.3%

9.0%

6.7%

5.6%

2.7%

2.7%

2.7%

2.7%

2.7%

2.7%

2.7%

2.7%

2.7%

2,539.96

2,710.64

2,861.42

2,938.49

3,017.93

3,099.82

3,183.92

3,270.31

3,359.05

3,450.19

3,543.81

3,639.96

9.30%

DTF
7.7%
Corfivalle (Documento Feb 2005)
Corfinsura (Documento Oct 2004)
Suvalor (Documento Abr 2005)
Javier Fernandez Riva y Asociados (Documento F
Fedesarrollo
Citigroup
ANIF
JP Morgan
Santander Investment
DTF Esperada Promedio
7.70%
Inflacin Externa

4.8%
5.3%

3.6%
4.0%
3.3%

8.6%

2.50%

DEVALUACION
-14.0%
Corfivalle (Documento Feb 2005)
Corfinsura (Documento Oct 2004)
Suvalor (Documento Abr 2005)
Javier Fernandez Riva y Asociados (Documento F
Fedesarrollo
Gobierno
Citigroup
ANIF
JP Morgan
Santander Investment
Devaluacin Esperada Promedio
-14.0%
Tasa de cambio

5.0%
4.9%
4.9%
5.6%
4.5%

2,390.00

6.7%

Corfivalle (Documento Feb 2005)

2,390.00

2514.00

2607.00

2671.00

2723.00

2763.00

2803.00