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41

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42

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84

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13

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141

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148

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123

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11

.
.
.

1312

Thomas Newcomen 1313

James watt

.

" " " "

14

. 1854 James

Young

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Karl Benz 1885 Otto motor

1815 Rudolf Diesel

. 13

1143 Wright Brothers

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1154 15.4

2444 11 1154
24.5 .2444

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Daniel YERGIN, "The PRIZE", 1990 PP.150-163

11

%54.3
%23.4 OECD %11.1

%8.1 2441

.
.

2441 OECD

%12.4 2441 %8.1

Reserve to production Ratio

. %38

33 .2441

12

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1001 57 / 57

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.
High Rate of Obselence

variable costs Fixed costs

.

.
)(2

. " " 134

13

oligopoly

1144 1134 :

( : )1 1050-1000

%1.5

1144

4.84

441

1114

4.11

818

34

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1124

3.43

1883

84

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14

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1.11

3818

151

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1144

1.42

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1444

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1.84

2.88

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8844

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Harold Lubell "Middle East oil Crises and Western Europes Energy Supplies" , 1963 , P. 181 :
Albert L. Danielsen "The Evolution of OPEC" PP. 15, 83,134-135

( )1 1134 1144

1133
1134

1134

11

1133

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15

( )Marginal Producers

1131

1181

conversation
substitution


.

11


1134 1131

1134 1133

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. 2444 1115
41.2 1115 2444
31.1 1115 24.5 2444
13.1 1115 31.1 2444
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2444 1115 44.1/


.


31.1 / 1115 33.1 / 2444
238
.
.
()1

13

1115

31.1

12.3

21.8

4.1

1.1

35.3

1134

45.3

18.1

31.1

4.4

2.1

13.1

1135

54.1

31.1

32.4

1.5

2.5

112.1

1184

11.1

21.2

31.5

3.3

3.4

134.4

1185

58.4

21.1

42.2

3.3

3.5

141.3

1114

15.5

35.1

45.1

14.4

3.8

114.1

1115

18.2

38.4

45.4

12.1

4.3

118.3

2444

33.1

43.1

43.1

13.4

4.1

131.3

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1115

41.2

11.1

31.1

4.2

2.1

144

1134

41.3

18.1

31.8

4.4

2.1

144

1135

48.3

11.1

28.3

1.3

2.2

144

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41.1

24.1

28.4

2.3

2.3

144

1185

41.2

21.1

21.8

5.4

2.5

144

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44.3

22.1

28.3

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2.4

144

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44.5

22.8

21.1

3.2

2.1

144

2444

41.2

24.2

24.5

3.5

2.1

144

Extra polation from various BP statistical Review or world Industry. :

1814

1313/ 1814 4.3 / 1145

13 1145
.
18

3 1145 34 1134

1114

()
.

US Gulf Plus
Phantom Freight . The
Single Basing point
22

1.45

.
1144

The Double Basing point

Equalization point Theory
Marker Crude 1.45 .

F . O . B .
11

1.45 1144 2.22 1148

( .)3 1148

Economic cooperation Administration

31 2.22 1148 1.35

1141 1153

31 2.15 31
2.35 ( )3

()3
1090 1011
( )

39

()

39

31

39

1145 1144

1.45

1.45

1.24
1.51
2.22

1.15
1.44
1.54
1.84
2.35

1114

1134

24

1148

1135
1135

2.22
2.43
1.88
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.13

2.15
1.13
1.82
1.35
1.15
1.15
1.54
1.32

2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.14

2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
3.44

1155 1154

1.13

1.32

2.82

2.18

1151

1.13

1.32

2.82

2.18

1153

2.48

1.85

3.45

3.38

1158

2.48

1.85

3.45

3.28

1151

1.14

1.13

2.14

3.28

1114

1.84

1.51

2.84

3.28

1141

1152 1151 1154

Taki Rifai, The pricing of crude oil 1944-1945 , 1975 , p. 50 :

OPEC, Annual statistical Bulletin, 1980
Al-Salman H.A. , The Economics of Middle Eastern Oil, Baghdad, 1966 , p. 6
Danielson, A.L. , The Evolution of OPEC, 1982 pp. 134-135

1.35 1153 2.48

1153 1151

() 1114 :
.

21

 1134 1114

1151 " "

1.84 1134 1114
.

8.3 / 1114 23.3

/ 1134 44 1114 41

1134

15 1131 1134 ( )3 :

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.
-3 54 55.
-4

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1133

.
.

1133-1134

)(3

" " 1131 .13 11

22

 1133

.
1133
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5.111 . 22 1133
11.151
. 1133 ( Administered
)Prices .


.

1133

2.35
1133 11.51 1135 354 .

53.4 / 1133 55.3

/ 1135 1.3 / 1131

15.8 / 1131 -1133
1138

( )4 :

1001 1051

( )

Brent

1132
1133
1134
1135
1131
1133

1.1
2.83
14.41
14.34
11.13
12.38

12.84
13.12

WTI
-

12.23
14.22

23

21.5
31.3
31.4
23.5
31.1
31.3

53.5
58.5
58.1
55.3
14.1
12.1

%55.1
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1138
1131
1184
1181
1182
1183
1184
1185
1181
1183
1188
1181
1114
1111
1112
1113
1114
1115
1111
1113
1118
1111
2444
2441
2442

13.43
21.35
35.11
34.32
31.84
28.38
28.41
23.53
13.41
11.11
13.24
15.18
24.54
11.51
13.21
14.14
14.31
11.41
18.51
18.13
12.11
13.34
21.24
22.84
23.85

14.42
31.11
31.83
35.13
32.13
21.55
28.11
23.51
14.38
18.42
14.11
18.24
23.81
24.54
11.33
13.43
15.18
13.18
24.84
11.34
13.11
18.25
28.18
24.33
25.11

34.3
31.5
23.5
23.3
11.1
18.4
18.5
13.3
11.3
11.3
21.2
23.3
24.1
24.3
21.1
21.1
23.2
23.5
28.3
21.1
34.8
21.4
34.1
34.1
28.2

14.55
25.48
33.11
21.48
33.15
34.34
21.31
23.11
15.44
11.11
15.13
11.18
24.54
21.54
24.53
18.45
13.21
18.42
22.11
24.11
14.31
11.31
34.33
25.13
25.44

13.1
15.8
12.8
51.3
53.4
51.3
58.4
53.5
14.2
14.2
12.4
13.8
14.3
15.1
15.3
11.4
11.1
13.1
11.3
31.1
33.3
31.1
34.1
34.4
33.1

%48.0
%47.9
%43.8
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%38.4

several issues of BP statistical of world Energy Yrs 1980 , 1992 &2003 :

55.3 / 1135 15.8

/ 1131 23.5 / 1135
31.5 / 1131 4 /
2.35 1133 12.34 1138

1138 1133



.
12.34 1138

%14 1131 1138

1131

24

 44 .1131

34 1184 .1182
1131 18.4 1131

34 1181

23.5 / 1184 13.3 /

1185 34 1185
44 .1184
1185

.
1181 Net Back

1181

.
24 1181

18

1183 .

Spot crude prices

( )Market Related
()

""

Brent
25

 ( )WTI

12.13

1181 24.5 1114 14.38

1181 23.81 1114 15.45 1181

24.52 1114
11.1 / 1181

24.1 / 1114 5.4 /

.

.
%30 1099

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1001 1000

1118 12.11
1113

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.

1135 2444
Reference Prices

Target price 18

1118 WTI 14.8

1111 Reference Band prices 28 22

.
.

Target price

18 2444-1181 2444

25 -22
21

 28 : 18
2444 1181

.2444
( )

28-22

2444

4 / .

( )

.
23

()
.

Derived

Demand

)(Demand Elasticity

Elasticity

.
2442

The composite Value of the Barrel

Oil future Markets

.
28

Capital Intensive

High Risk Investment

Advance Technology- Oriented High Rate of

Obsolence High skilled Labor and Creative

Management

- :

/ .

:
21

 -1 :

-2 :

14.5 /
2443-1133 3.5 8.5 /

2 3 /

90

11 / .

3 :

:
34

-
-

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24

44
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31


unitization
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2 2444

1181

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- :

1973 " "

1974

- 1
2001 1975
97.9 / 1135
32

 179.3 / 2001 81.4 /

54.6 / 1975 73.9 / 2001 19.3
/
62.1 / 19.3 / 2001-1975

.
-2
2002 1975

( /)

1975 1970

1980

1985

1995 1990

2000

2002

23.4

27.5

27.5

17.3

24.6

27.5

30.9

28.2

19.8

28.2

35.3

40.2

40.1

40.4

43.6

45.7

43.2

55.7

62.8

57.5

64.7

67.9

74.5

73.9

%54.2

%38.0 %30.0 %43.8 %49.2

%41.1 %40.5

%38.4

28.2 / 1975 45.7

/ 2002 17.5 / %61 1135 2442

27.5 / 28.2 / 2002 1975

.
-3 :

( )14

( )1267 2002
33

( )OECD 3067 2002 8

%28
28.4 / .2001

.
-4

( )NYMEX Fuel

oil Oil Future Market 1987

WTI Brent ()IPE

( )

( )

1985 :

34

1987
2001 ) (Bubble

ENRON

) (physical

.
-5

35

.
- 6

()

2000
%35
()

( )

31

2002

( )5 : 2002

) (5

2002

( )

()

()

()

25.75

59.6 59.6

25.75

69.0 73.1

26.11

104.1 163.3

60.1

27.8

26.11

115.8 165.4

55.9

29.1

26.11

114.3 167.4

134.0

32.4

26.11

93.0 127.5

59.9

31.8

26.11

160.7 185.2

46.5

34.3

26.33

111.5 137.5

59.9

34.1

IEA, "Oil Market Report" 17 January 2003, P 61-62 :

33

.

1960

() 1960
%55.1 1971

1972 1973
1972 1974

1974

2002-1974

1960

38

 1
1974

2002-1986 () 25 26

2002 1972 2.78

2002-1974

2
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1973

... .1973

(
)

31

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.
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2000-1974

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41

10 1424 11 2003

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42

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1111




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.

44


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(
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13 1423 24 :2442
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45

11 1111
15

1111 12.3 15.. 11.5 .

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( ) .

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of Cleaner Fossil Fuel Systems

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.
41

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.

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.

:

______________________________________________________________________________

43

( )4 / 1144 ( )24 / 1154

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2444 1115 :

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1115
1134
1135
1184
1185
1114
1115
1111

31.1
45.3
54.1
11.1
58.4
15.5
18.2
33.2

12.3
18.5
21.1
21.2
34.4
35.1
38.4
41.5

21.8
31.2
32.4
31.5
42.2
45.1
44.3
42.8

4.1
4.4
1.1
3.3
3.3
14.4
12.1
13.1

1.1
2.1
2.5
3.4
3.5
3.8
4.3
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( )

35.3
13.1
112.1
134.4
141.3
114.2
113.3
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41.3
41.3
48.4
41.1
41.2
44.1
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42.8

: BPAMOCO.
* .

41.3 1115

1111 42.8

1111 1115
1.5 1111 1115

48

 ( )OECD

1111 1134 :

1091 1000OECD Product Demand

( /)

1091

1000

1000

1
()
1000 1091

LPG

3.41

3.31

4.31

33.1

Naphtha

1.84

2.43

2.11

44.4

Motor Gasoline

11.24

12.14

14.35

28.1

Jet / Kerosene

2.38

3.44

4.12

33.4

Gas oil

8.34

1.14

11.33

34.3

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1.21

5.51

4.81

()21.3

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4.42

4.34

4.31

37.79

11771

18.4

15791

1970

IEA, oil Market Report 9 Aug. 2000 :

( )21.3 1111 1184 ( 1.35 /)

( )Fuel oil .

31.1 / 1115 33.2 / 1111

135 44.2 / 1115

13.8 / 1111 121
1111 1115.

41

1133 1144 ( )1

( )441 1144 ( )53.1

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Obselence

( )1 1001 1000

1144
1114
1124

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4.84

441

4.11

818

34

3.43

1883

84

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54

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13.4

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1.42

5814

1444

13.4

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2.51

14411

3432

32.1

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1.84

2.88

21421

8844

41.1

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1.84

3.18

43214

23448

54.2

1133

1.14

4.13

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14.41

3.18

53844
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21125
31455

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8.31

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23545

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35.11

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44.5

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51.3
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44.5

* 1185 1154 2441 1181 . .

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: BPAMOCO /
Danielsen, A.L., The Evolation of Opec, 1982 pp. 134 -135
DOE/EIA, (Annual Energy Review 1999) July 2000
WTI

.
1134

1134

51


1051

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32

12.15 1181

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_________________________________________________________

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118.12

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124.1

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11.4

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35.41

143.35

12.4

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255.5

23313

13.1

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43.44

111.18

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34.4

114.1

24281

13.1

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31.41

124.88

13.8

18.8

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31.31

118.12

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81.5

182.5

21534

11.1

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55.84

131.84

12.8

51.2

353.3

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18.3

13.12

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48.13

34.1

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41413

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244.1

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3.3

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11070

13.21
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13.1
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18.4
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354.4
438.4
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138.1
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22441
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51.81

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135.2

4413

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301173

131175

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10975

IEA (Oil Market report, Annual statistical) 9 Aug. 2000 P. 11, 29 :

IEA (Oil Market Report) 11 Sept. 2000 P. 49
1.43
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-
:

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1111 :

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42.8 1111
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14

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.
1111
:

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1007

44.1
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21.5

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48.1

54.3

18.5

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51.1

55.1

143.1

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34.4 111.4

58.3

IEA (World Energy Outlook) 1998 P. 90 :

83.1 14.2 / 2414 .

11

 ( )58.3 1115

2424 ( )44.1 /
OECD ( )143..
1115 2424 ( )34.4 /
OECD 1115 2424 ( )34.3

( )4

( )8 / ( )4 /

2424 .

: .
-1 :
)(4

World Energy outlook (Looking at Energy Subsidies: Getting the Prices Right) , 1999

12

 ( )

( )1433.8
1111 ( )141.2 1131

( .)51.2 ( )33..

3 1131 ( )141.4 3 1111 .

( )184211 ( )1313 1111

13 13 1118 ( )

( : )Greening of Fossil Fuels : Making Them More sustainable

45 234

1118
114 2134 1118 :
1009

45
15
234

115
244
1144

114
215
2134

1000

15.4

13

33.8

 OECD

8.3
1.3
2.3
4.5

BPAMOCO (statistical Review) June 2000 :

1.1
38.3
4.1
4.4

45.4
23.4
11.1
3.1

- -

.
-1 :

( )8 ( )1

. )5( T. Masuda
:

( )15
14 15 .

15 12 12

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14 :1
1185 3 :1 1118
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34 28 2444.

14

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45 14

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91 .
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World Energy Outlook

18.5

/ 1111 43.3 / 2414 48.1 / 2424 .

:

:



(:)NGL



( )
*
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( /)
1009

1010

1010

13.2
45.5
12.3

44.1
38.4
31.4

45.2
23.4
32.2

1.3
5.3
1.1
2.3

2.8
8.5
11.3
4.1

3.3
11.5
15.2
24.4

( ) 2444.
( Petroleum Review ) 2444 .
Processing gain Oil shale, Sand Tar etc. :

15

32.4

14.8

111.4

:
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1111 ( )51.8 2414 ( )12.1

2424 .

-
( )11.1 / 2424

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1118 1134 14 35
11 Petroleum Review :

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( )Panorama 2000 2444/1/23 ( ) 13 2444.

11

 1009 1051
/

/
1118
1131
1134
182
1.144
1.244
112
535
414
3.324
1.311
15.144
1411
15211
15344
2311
4414
4344
333
1844
2544
1144
1454
2144
1241
13144
12454
1185
5144
8444
221
114
215

43
13
31
14
35
11
48
48
35
14

1070

90

9100

1700

1051 1009

Petroleum Review June 1999 pp. 2-4 :

( )3

1118-1114 ( )1125

1114 ( )1152 ( )18

1114 ( )324 1118 ( )35 1114 ( )133

1118 ( )3 1114 ( )54 1118

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( )Panorama 2000 2444/1/23 " " .

13

 ( - )3
Exploratory & Development Wells in Arab Countries

1000

1007

1009

1005

1009

35
23
23
84
18
12
113
23
3
18
155

131
24
15
121
111
14
32
31
44
88
114

125
24
14
144
182
13
28
38
21
131
183

148
15
11
145
345
44
34
121
45
128
135

133
15
18
145
324
13
34
153
54
111
244

UAE
Bahrain
Tunisia
Algeria
S. Arabia
Syria
Iraq
Qatar
Kuwait
Libya
Egypt

383

814

158

1135

1243

OAPEC

211
42

342
41

343
42

211
43

445
44

Oman
Yemen

338

343

385

331

445

Ather Arab
Countries

1125

1233

1343

1434

1152

Total Arab
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: : 1111.

18

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)Petroleum Review (How much can OPEC actually Produce) April 2000. (10
) (11 .

11

 -4 New oil discovery rates

Petroleum Review
1112 1118 :
10011009/

1112

3.8

33

1113

4.44

13

1114

1.15

28

1115

5.12

23

1111

5.24

21

1113

5.12

22

1118

3.14

28

(1001 1009)

13713

17

Petroleum Review April 2000. :

11 33 1001

1009 17

00

50

( )14

34

________________________________________________________

31

) (OECD
.

:
.

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1090

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13.44

24.53

24.15

23.32

1.18

2.41

3.24

3.31

4.53

2.44

12.32

13.31

12.18

14.53

1.81

1.43

1.83

1.18

1.11

4.54

5.34

8.14

8.44

4.42

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4.11

2.41

3.24

4.42

3.43

4.83

1.45

1.12

2.41

1.13

1.84

14.34

13.11

11.18

13.18

41.84

12.41

11.13

35.21

28.42

CERA, (World Oil Trends) 2000 p. 12 :

( )13.18 / 1111 1134 41.4
34

( )1.81 /.

()

()

. /
8 2444

-3

( )
International cooperation Energy center ()

( )

-4

( )383 1111
1111 ( )335 ( )151
35

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Strategic Value of

Cleaner Fossil Fuel Systems

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( )14

31

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( )

1134 "" .

33

 -1

Oil Depletion

) (Recovery Factor

( ).

1133

1133

38

-
1134

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2442-1135

:

( )

1135
2442

54.1
35.3

31.1
41.1

1.5
13.3

32.4
51.1

2.5
12.3

112.1
242.8

BPAmaco

1135 2442 112.1

/ 1135 242.8 2442 %31.1

%48.4 1135 %33.2

2442 81.2

/ 2442-1135 21.1
/

54.1

/ 1135 35.3 / 2442

31

BPamaco 2442 - %12.8 2442

.
DOE " "2441
International Energy Annual 2001 2443
2425 2444 ( )1
184.2

%31

Tar Sand

( )1 1017-1000
/

( )

Proud Reserves

Reserve Growth

undiscovered

22.45

31.43

83.43

84

184.42
12.12
4.41
3.52
18.14
231.33

12.48
25.13
4.41
2.15
11.32
131.24

32.51
45.33
4.31
5.13
34.58
242.21

33.83
1.53
18.25

133.34
1.45
11.51

134.31
1.38
14.12

13.11

158.34

181.31

185.14
33.43
5.33
18.55
11.35
838.34

252.51
33.41
3.81
14.35
14.53
435.14

211.11
124.32
1.38
125.31
23.14
541.14

1212.88

334.45

138.84

EIA (DOE) "International Energy Outlook 2003" :
315.53
334.48

811.41
313.83

444.51
538.31

world oil Markets (table l l)p.10

Capital Costs 5 1
Average operating cost 8 12

33.8 133.3

81

 185.14 %51.5

252.5
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112.5

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82

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Outlook to 2020 2442 2444

Reference Case 18 2442

22.5 2443
2414

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( )2
( )1 1010-1007
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1010
1017
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1007
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83

OECD

43.1

41.4

51.1

53.1

55.4

13.4

15.1

18.4

21.8

25.8

5.1

1.2

3.1

8.1

1.1

3.8

4.2

4.3

5.1

5.1

4.3

5.5

1.3

8.2

1.8

4.8

4.8

1.4

1.4

1.2

5775

9173

9071

0579

10977

1010 1007

1000

1007

1010

1017

1010

21.1

31.2

33.3

44.3

52.1

45.8

54.1

52.1

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53.1

35.3

81.3

81.4

13.1

141.5

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OPEC "Oil & Energy Outlook to 2020" March 2002 :

2444 2444 2424 35.3

/ 2444 143 / 2424 %41.2

2444 2424

OECD 23.8 / 2444 51.8 / 2424

%81.3 2424 OECD

43.1 / 2444 55 / 2444 %14.8

2444 2424
84

OECD .

( ) 21.1 /

2444 33.3 / 2414 52.1

/ 2424 %31.5 2444
%41.4 2414 %41.4 .2424

1007 1010
.1010

2441

Energy

Information Administration DOE 2443

2445 2425
( )3

2425

2445 :
IEO
GIL
PEL
PIRA
DBAB
2414 :
IEO

( )3
2445 2425
( /)

31.1
34.1
34.4
28.4
34.1

41.1
52.1
54.3
54.4
54.3

84.3
83.2
81.1
82.4
84.8

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31.1

53.2

81.3

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85

GIL
IEA
PEL
PIRA
DBAB
2415 :
IEO
GIL
PEL
PIRA
DBAB
2424 :
IEO
GIL
IEA
DBAB
2425
IEO
DBAB

34.3
35.1
35.1
32.1
31.5

54.4
53.4
53.5
51.4
52.1

81.1
88.1
81.1
11.5
81.1

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%44
%44
%35
%41

41.4
31.3
44.4
33.5
41.5

53.4
13.3
52.1
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18.4
142.1
13.4
11.5
18.3

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48.2
43.3
54.2
41.1

51.1
15.4
53.1
11.8

143.8
112.3
144.1
148.3

%45
%42
%48
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55.1
54.3

12.3
11.8

118.3
121.1

%43
%45

EIA, "International Energy Outlook "May 2003 :

* GIL = Global Insight Inc., PEL = Petroleum Economics Ltd., PIRA Energy
Group DBAB = Deutsche Banc Alex Brown Inc

88.1 11.5 /

2414 144.1 112.3 / 2424

.

22 2445 2441

2425-2414 11

2441 23.23 2445

21.53 2441

81

 28.15 2445 32.51 33.45

2441

14 / 2414 145 / 2424

2445

14

/ 2443
2414 2425

14 / 2414 114 / 2424

83

()

88