:

2014
1

2014
2

" "Status .
.
1662 " "
.



.
.

.

.
.

1
1-1
2-1
3-1
1-3-1
4-1
5-1
6-1
7-1
1-7-1
8-1
9-1
10 -1
11 -1
1 -11 -1
2 -11 -1
12 -1
13 -1
14 -1
15 -1
16 -1
17 -1

9
9
9
10
10
11
11
12
12
12
13
13
14
14
14
20
20
21
23
25
28
29
30

2
1-2
2-2
3-2
4-2

33
33
35
37
37

5-2
6-2

39
40
41

3
1-3
1-1-3
2-1-3
3-1-3
2-3
1-2-3
2-2-3
3-2-3
4-2-3
3-3
1-3-3
2-3-3
3-3-3
4-3-3
5-3-3
6-3-3
7-3-3
4-3
1-4-3
2-4-3

44
45
45
47
49
50
50
52
56
57
58
58
59
61
62
62
63
64
67
67
69
71

4
1-4
1-1-4
2-1-4
2-4
1-2-4
1-1 -2 -4

74
75
75
75
75
75
76

3-4
1-3-4
2-3-4
3-3-4
4-3-4
4-4
1-4-4
2-4-4
5-4
1-5-4
2-5-4
3-5-4
6-4
7-4
1-7-4
1-1 -7 -4
2-1 -7 -4
2-7-4

" "
""

76
77
78
81
82
82
82
84
86
87
89
91
92
93
93
93
94
97
98

5
1-5
2-5
1-2-5
3-5
1-3-5
2-3-5
4-5
5-5
6-5

) (


)(

102
102
102
102
105
105
107
109
113
116
118

6
1-6

121
121

2-6
1-2-6
2-2-6
3-2-6
4-2-6

122
123
123
124
126
128

7
1-7
1-1-7
1-1 -1 -7
2-7
1-2-7
2-2-7
3-2-7

) (

130
130
130
132
134
134
135
136
139

8
1-8
2-8
1-2-8
2-2-8
3-8
1-3-8
2-3-8
3-3-8

141
141
141
142
142
142
143
143
143

1
2
3

146
149
151

153

-1
8

 .1 -1

) (statistics
...

.


.

...



.
.

.

.
.2 -1 :
:
(1 .
(2 .
(3 .

 (4

. .
(5

.
.3 -1 .

Nature Of Statistics

)(

) . (The Science of canting

.
.1-3 -1 :

.



.
:
1 - : Descriptive statistics

.
2 -: Statistical inference
.

10

 . 4 -1


.


.



.....


.




.
.
.5 -1 .


) ( .
.
.

11

 .6 -1
-1
2
3
4
5
6
.7 -1
.1-7 -1
y x
yi xi ) ( y
) ( . yi yi y variables
: y .
:
1 :
) ( ) (
) (...... .
2 :
.
:
) ( :
130,5 170 y
12

 130,5 170
) ( .
) ( :

. .
.8 -1 :
:
.
.
.
: .

.
.9 -1


1 :
.
2 :

.
3 :


.
13



.
.10 -1 :
:
1 :


.
2 : sample

. :
1 .
2 .

.
:
.11 -1
.1-11 -1 :
.
Simple random sample
.
) (
.
14

 )(1
5 50

:

5 .
- )( Systematic sample
.

.
) (k ) (k
.
) (k
k = N/n
: n

: N
: 2

1000 100
.k
:
k = N/n
= 1000 / 100 = 10

15

 : 3
100 1260 .
:
k = N/n
= 1260 / 100 = 12.6
.13

:4
200 4000
:
(1 : k
k = N/n
= 4000 / 200 = 20
(2 20 .8
(3 k
8 , 8 +20 , 8 + 20 + 20 , 8 + 20 + 20 + 20 + ...
8 , 28 , 48 , 68 , ... , 388.

:5

12500
350 .
:
k = N/n
= 12500 / 350
16

= 35.7
35
: 18
18 , 53 , 88 , 123 , ...

:

.


.

: N
: Ni ).(i
: ni ).(i
: n .

N = N1 + N2 + N3 + ... + Nk
nk

n = n1 + n2 + n3 + ... +

) (i
17

ni = Ni n
N

: 6
10000 4 :
. 1500 , 4000 , 3500 , 1000 400
.
:
N = 10000
N1 = 1000

n = 400
N2 = 3500

N4 = 1500

N3 = 4000

n1 = N1 n = 1000 400 = 40
10000

n2 = N2 n = 3500 400 = 140

10000

n3 = N3 n = 4000 400 = 160

10000

n4 = N4 n = 1500 400 = 60
10000

n = 40 + 140 + 160 + 60
= 400
.

: 7
.
1000 . 100 .
18

.
Group

No. Of companies

Financial

300

Diversified

200

Commercial banking

200

Retailing

100

Transportation

100

Utilities

100

Total

1000

N6 = 100

N5 = 100

N4 = 100

n = 100

N = 10000

N3 = 200

N2 = 200 N1 = 300

n1 = N1 n = 300 100 = 30
N

1000

n2 = N2 n = 200 100 = 20
N

1000

n3 = N3 n = 200 100 = 20
N

1000

n4 = N4 n = 100 100 = 10
N

1000

n5 = N5 n = 100 100 = 10
N

1000

n6 = N6 n = 100 100 = 10
N

1000

n = 30 + 20 + 20 + 10 + 10 + 10 = 100

19

 :


: 8
.
:

. .

.2-11 -1 :
.
:
) (
.


.
:
.
.12 -1 :
:
1 :
.
.
20

 -2 : )(
) ( .
.13 -1





.
-1 :
.
-2 :

.
-3 :


.

- :
.

2000

150

2001

180

2002

200

2003

250

780
21

 :
.

2500

2000

2200

1800

8500

:
.....

3000

185

3500

95

5000

70

5000

20

370

:
.

123

77

200

22

 .14 -1

Frequency Distribution

) (class x
.
. .
: .
: .
:
.
: .
: 1+
: .
: fi
.
: .
L :
-1

L xL xs
:
L :
xL :
xs :
-2
23

T .R
m

= m

= R.T

-3 = ) (
-4 :
: T.R

T .R XL XS 1
:
= LX
= SX
: X

L.L U .L
2

L.L
U.L

: m :

m 1 3 .322 log n

n
:

m 2 .5

= n

24

 .15 -1

-1 : .

60-62

63-65

15

66-68

45

69-71

27

72-74

100

-2 ) ( :
:
: .
: .
:

51-60

71-80

61-70

121-140

20

30

141-160

40

10

52

161-180

10

18

24

52

24

100

25

 )(1

)( 67,55,65.70,75,60,89,83,65,56,49,65,49,48,69,62,72,45,56,74,

-1
-2
-3
-4

) (45-89

-1
= 1+

T .R XL XS 1 89 45 1 45
-2

m 1 3 .322 log n 1 3 .322 log 20 5 .32 5

:

n 2 .5 4 20 2 .5 2 .114 5 .28 5

5 m 2 .5

-3

T . R 45

9
m
9

fi
4

fi

class
40-49

50-59

60-69

70-79

2
20

20

80-89
Total
26

 : :
-1
-2
:
40 50
50 60
60 70
:
405060 70
-3 :
40 50
50 60
60 70

40506070

:
-
-
- ) (
27

 .16 -1
) : (2 x y
2 , 10 , 11 , 4 , 20 , 15 , 15 , 3

3 , 2 , 5 , 6 , 8 , 10 , 2 , 10

25 , 25 , 20 , 22 , 15 , 20 , 30 , 30 ,

2 ,6 ,5 ,9

35 , 30 , 35 , 31

10 , 12

, 15 , 12 , 3 , 9

, 11 , 4
:
-1 X
:

T .R XL XS 1 35 2 1 34
:

n 2 .5 4 20 2 .5 2 .114 5 .28 5

m 2 .5

:
T .R
34

6 .8 7
m
5

-2 Y
-3 :

T .R XL XS 1 15 2 1 14
-4 :

m 1 3 .322 log n 1 3 .322 log 20 5 .31 5

-5 :

T . R 14

2 .8 3
m
5
28

fi Y
6
4
6
3
1

fiX

3
5
4
2
6

fY
2-4
5-7
8-10
11-13
14-16

20

20

fX
2-8
9-15
16-22
23-29
30-36
Total

:
9-15

2-8

Total

30-36

23-29

6
4
6
3
1
20

16-22

X
Y

2-4
5-7
8-10
11-13
14-16
Total

.17 -1

. :
.
. Fi
- :
.
) : (3

)( 67,55,65.70,75,60,89,83,65,56,49,65,49,48,69,62,72,45,56,74,
:

29

fi

49

40-49

59

50-59

14

69

60-69

18

79

70-79

20

89

80-89

20

- :
.
.
) (3 :
F

fi

20

40

40-49

16

50

50-59

13

60

60-69

70

70-79

80

80-89

20

/1
/2
/3
/4
/5
/6

30

 /7
/8
/9
/10 :

.
/11 :
.
/12

31

32

 .2
:
.
.


. .
.1 -2

. :
-1
-2

-3
): (1 / :

80-90 70-80 60-70 50-60 40-50 30-40

1

25

15

33

20

90-100

12

80

:
.
) :(2

fi * = f i / L
1
0.6
2.5
1.5
1
0.8

L
5
15
10
20
15
25

fi
5
9
25
30
15
20
104

:
:

fi * = fi / L

34

10-14
15-29
30-39
40-59
60-74
75-100
Total

 .2 -2 :
:
.

.
) : (3 :
-1
-2

80-90 70-80 60-70 50-60 40-50 30-40

1

25

15

35

20

90-100

12

80

:

:
-1
-2
3

36

 .3 -2 :



-1
-2 ) ( ) (

:

.4 -2 :
:
-1
-2

37


.
) : (4 150 . /

50-100
32

150-200 100-150
25
35

350-400 300-350 250-300 200-250

8
13
17
20

:
:

100
150
200
250
300
350
400

32
67
92
112
129
142
150

38

150

 .5 -2 :
:
-1
-2
.
) : (5 150 . /

50-100
32

350-400 300-350 250-300 200-250 150-200 100-150

8
13
17
20
25
35

:
:

50
100
150
200
250
300
350

150
118
83
58
38
21
8

39

150

 .6 -2 :
:
-3
-4
.
-3


.
) : (6 150 .

50-100

32

350-400 300-350 250-300 200-250 150-200 100-150

35

25

20

17

13

:
:

150
118
83
58
38
21
8

100
150
200
250
300
350
400

40

50
100
150
200
250
300
350

150

/1 :

.
/2
48 , 38 , 51 , 45 , 56 , 39 , 50 , 71 , 65 , 34 , 51 , 66 , 27 , 73 , 69 , 34 , 43 , 34 , 53 , 54 , 71 ,
91 , 44 , 53 , 36 , 49 , 56 , 45 , 64 , 59 , 41 , 58 , 76 , 52 , 57 , 69 , 81 , 46 , 34 , 41 , 62 , 49 ,
43 , 55 , 79 , 66 , 87 , 81 , 70 , 67 , 55 , 53 , 84 , 52 , 56 , 44 , 51 , 65 , 76 , 52 , 54 , 33 , 95 ,
54 , 61 , 52 , 95 , 40 , 57 , 35 , 53 , 60 , 55 , 64 , 42 , 69 , 57 , 47 , 53 , 52 , 61 , 36 , 61 , 54 ,
57 , 80 , 46 , 61 , 54 , 94 , 55 , 85, 73 , 60 , 27 , 44 , 67 , 65 , 62 , 32 , 54

/3 :

30
39
3

4049
6

5059
24

6069
64

7079
50

8089
29
41

9099
14

120- 110- 100129 119 109

200
1
3
6

 /4

46-53
7

53-60
15

60-67
27

74-81
14

67-74
21

81-88
8

88-95
5

95-102
3

100

/5 70
.

56 75 70 66 60 55 65 70 65 56 66 71 62 67 71 61 67 61 70
60 75 69 71 57 69 72 68 57 72 68 65 63 73 66 63 58 73 67
62 72 58 74 60 81 80 74 76 74 73 58 72 94 78 91 85 77 83
77 82 76 62 78 88 64 87 55 79 57 64 79
:
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6 .

42

43

 .3

:

.

:
Arithmetic mean

Median

Mode

Geometric mean
Harmonic mean

44

 .1-3 :

.
:
.1-1 -3 :

: :
.
n

x
i 1

) : (1 15
) (
50.2 , 60.9 , 68.3 , 59.2 , 58.1 , 62.3 , 65.3 , 52.9 , 61.5 , 63.2 , 59.1 , 69.3 , 64.2
, 65.2 , 56.6
:
n

50 . 1 60 . 9 59 . 2 58 . 1 62 . 3 65 . 3 52 . 9 ... 56 . 6
15
916 . 3

61 . 087 kg
15

x
i 1

:
50.2 , 52.9 , 56.6 , 58.1 , 59.1 , 59.2, 60.9 , 61.9 , 62.3 , 63.2 , 64.2 , 65.2 , 68.3
, 69.3
.
: ) (


45

 . A
di :

di

X A

:
= A
= di

d i xi A

A

) : (2 15
) (
50.2 , 60.9 , 68.3 , 59.2 , 58.1 , 62.3 , 65.3 , 52.9 , 61.5 , 63.2 , 59.1 , 69.3 , 64.2
, 65.2 , 56.6
-1 A A 61.5
-2 di Xi-A di
-3 di
di = xi - A
d9 = 61.5 - 61.5 = 0

d1 = 50.2 61.5 = - 11.3

d10 = 63.2 61.5 = 1.7

d2 = 60.9 61.5 = - 0.6

d11 = 59.1 61.5 = - 2.4

d3 = 68.3 61.5 = 6.8

d12 = 69.3 61.5 = 7.8

d4 = 59.2 61.5 = - 2.3

d13 = 64.2 61.5 = 2.7

d5 = 58.1 61.5 = - 3.4

d14 = 65.2 65.5 = - 0.3

d6 = 62.3 61.5 = 0.8

d15 = 56.6 61.5 = - 4.9

d7 = 65.3 61.5 = 3.8

d8 = 52.9 61.5 = - 8.6

di = - 5
46

 -4
i

d
n

X A

5
61 . 5 0 . 333 61 . 833
15

61 . 5

d
n

X A

.2-1 -3 :
:
i

f x
f
i

:
=
= fi
= Xi
:
-1
-2
-3 ) * (
) (3 63

50-60
8

60-70
10

70-80
16

80-90
14

47

90-100
10

100-110
5

63

 :
fi Xi
440
650
1200
1190
950
525
4955

)(Xi
55
65
75
85
95
105

50-60
60-70
70-80
80-90
90-100
100-110

)(fi
8
10
16
14
10
5
63

f x
f
i

4950
78 . 65
63

f x
f
i

:
:
di = Xi - A
Xi :
i

fd
f
i

X A

:
-1 Xi
-2 A
-3 di
-4 di fi
-5 ) * (
-6
48

 : :
-1
-2
-3 :
) (4 63

50-60
8

60-70
10

70-80
16

90-100
10

80-90
14

100-110
5

63

fi di

di = Xi - A

)(Xi

fi

-160

55 75 = - 20

55

50-60

-100

65 75 = -10

65

10

60-70

75 75 = 0

75

16

70-80

140

85 75 = 10

85

14

80-90

200

95 75 = 20

95

10

90-100

175

105 75 = 30

105

100-110

63

230

230
78 . 65
63

75

f d
f
i

: 75
. 3 -1 -3
:
.1 .
.2 .
.3 .
.
.1 .
.2 .
.3
49

X A

 .2 -3 Median

.
17, 6 , 9, 5 , 2
2 , 5 , 6 , 9 , 17 6

.1-2 -3
- :

n 1
2

:
= T n

-1
-2 :

n 1
2

-3 )(2
) - (5
134 , 78 , 204 , 63 , 12 , 189 , 152 .
:

12 , 63 , 78 , 134 , 152 , 189 , 204

204 , 189 , 152 , 134 , 78 , 63 , 12

50

n 1 7 1

4
2
2

:
Me = 134

- ) (n

n
1
2

n
2

) - (6 :
152 , 189 , 12 , 63 , 204 , 78 , 134 , 7
:

7, 12 , 63 , 78 , 134 , 152 , 189 , 204 .

n 8
4
2 2

78

n
8
1 1 5
2
2

134
:

78 134
212

106
2
2

Me

204 , 189 , 152 , 134 , 78 , 63 , 12 , 7 :

n 8
4
2 2
51

 134

n
8
1 1 5
2
2

78
:

134 78
212

106
2
2

Me

.2-2 -3 :
- ) (
) : (Discrete Variables
:
5
.... .
.


-1

fi

fi :
-2 ) (
-3

52

 ): (7

2-4

5-7

8-10

11-13

14-16

17-19

20-22

12

20

14

11

80

:
)(Fi

)(fi

2-4

15

5-7

27

10

12

8-10

47

13

20

11-13

61

16

14

14-16

72

19

11

17-19

80

22

20-22

80

80
40
2

fi

2747

) (11-13
47
12 :

11 13
12
2

Me

-
): (Continuous Variables
: ) (
53

 ) ( ) ( ) (
) ( ) ( .

fi

FK 1
2
hK
FK FK 1

Me L K

:
= Me
= Lk
=

fi

= Fk-1
= Fk
= hk
:
-1
-2

fi

-3
-4

fi

FK 1
2
hK
FK FK 1

54

Me L K

 ) - (8 :
)(Fi

)(fi

60

50-60

18

70

10

60-70

34

80

16

70-80

48

90

14

80-90

58

100

10

90-100

63

110

100-110

65

110

110-120

65

:
:
65
32 . 5
2

) 18 ( 34

fi

) ( 70 80

fi

FK 1
2
hK
FK FK 1

Me L K

L K 70 ; f i 65 ; F K 34 ; F K 1 18 ; h K 10
65
18
145
2
h K 70
10 70
79 . 63
34 18
16

FK 1

fi

2
FK FK 1

) : (1
55

Me L K


) : (2 :

F K 1 T
hK
F K F K 1

Me L K

) : (3
.
.3-2-3

.
:
fi

-1 .

-2
.
) (
.
70
60
50
40

30

25.6

20
10

10

212 316 420 24

5 28
6 327 368 409

.
56

70
60
50
40

30

25.6

20
10

212 316 420 24

5 28
6 327 368 409

10

.
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
10

212 316 420 24

5 28
6 327 368 409

. 3 -2 -3

-1 .
-2 .
-3
. :

a Med

| x Med | | x a | ,

-1 .
-2 nominal
57

 .3 -3 Mode
) (

.
.1 unimodal
.2

Bimodal

.3 multi- modal
.
)
( .
.1-3 -3
) : (9
3, 4 , 5 , 6 , 2 , 3

2,3,3,3,4,5,6
: 3 .

:
.
) : (10
2 , 4 , 6 , 8 , 10 , 12 , 14 , 19

) : (11
2 , 4 , 8 , 10 , 12 , 2 , 5 , 4 , 6

58

2 , 2 , 4 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 8 , 10 , 12
4 2
.2-3 -3
:
.

) (
-1 fk ) ( hk
-2 fk-1
-3 fk+1
-4 ) ( Lk
-5 :

f K f k 1
hK
f K 1 ) f K f K 1

( fK

Mo L K

1
2 :

2 f K f k 1 f K f K 1

1
hK
1 2
:
= Mo
= Lk
= fk
= fk-1
59

Mo L K

1 f K f K 1

 = fk+1
= hk
) : (12

60-50

70 -60

80 -70

90-80

100-90

110 -100

120 -110

10

16

14

10

65

Fk-1
fk
Fk+1

-1 fk 16
) (70-80

)(fi

50-60

10

60-70

16

70-80

14

80-90

10

90-100

100-110

110-120

65

) Fk-1 -2 10
) Fk+1 -3 14
Lk -4 70
hk -5 10
-6

f K f k 1
hK
f K 1 ) f K f K 1

( fK

Mo L K

16 10
60
10 70
77 . 5
(16 10 ) 16 14
8
) : (1
60

Mo 70

 ) : (2 .
*fi
) : (13

* fi

fi

2 / 5 = 0.4

5-10

6 / 5 =1.2

10-15

10 / 10 = 1

10

10

15-25

22 / 10 = 2.2

10

22

25-35

27 / 15 = 1.8

15

27

35-50

11 / 10 = 1.1

10

11

50-60

68

Total

f K f k 1
hK
f K 1 ) f K f K 1

( fK

Mo L K

2 .2 1
1 . 2 10
12
10 25
25
32 . 5
( 2 . 2 1) 2 . 2 1 . 8
1 .2 0 .4
1 .6

Mo 25

.3-3 -3
)
( .
a c b d
.

61

 ): (14
80-90 70-80 60-70 50-60 40-50 30-40
20
25
15
5
2
1

90-100
12

80

.4-3 -3
:
-1 .
-2 .
:
-1 .
-2 .
.5-3 -3
) (

:
- = ) 3 - (
62

 .

:
=

. 6 -3 -3

:

:
= = .
) ( :
< <
) ( :
> >

63


)(15

10 5

:
121

123

123

121

124 119

123

119

123

115

: .

-1 :

1211
121.1
10

x
n

-2 :

(n 1) / 2 (10 1) / 2 5.5 :

= 10 . = ) (6 , 5

122

244

121 123
2

Med

-3 :
: 123

Mod 123
:

64

 : > > .
)(16
100 .

170 190

150-170

130-150

110-130

90-110

70-90

50- 70

100

15

20

28

15

:
-1 .
-2 .

-1 .
: x

f.x
480
1200
2800
2400
2100
1280
1080
11340

x
60
80
100
120
140
160
180

f
8
15
28
20
15
8
6
100

11340
113.4 R.S
100
65

50 70
70 90
90 110
110 - 130
130 - 150
150 170
170 - 190

fx
f

 : Med

(n/2 =100/2 =50) :

.

50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190

0
8
)

f1 23 (50
f1 51

71
86
94
100
:

n
50 , f1 23 , f 2 51 , A 90 , L 110 90 20
2
:
n
f1
50 23
2
Med A
L 90
20
f 2 f1
51 23
R.S

90 19.286 109.3

540

20 90

28

27

90

28

: Mod

= 28 ). (90 - 110
:

d 2 28 20 8 , d1 28 15 13

A 90 :

L 110 90 20 :

d1
13
260
L 90
20 90
102.4 R.S
d1 d 2
13 8
21

66

Mod A

.7 -3 -3

x 113.4 :

Med 109.3 :

: < <

Mod 1024 :

.4 -3 ) geometric mean (G ):harmonic mean (H

-1 indexes
-2 ratios
-3 rates
-4 :

.1-4 -3

Geometric Mean

: :-
) (x x , x , , x ) (n
n

67

1
n

) X 1 . X 2 . X 3 . X n ( X 1 X 2 X 3 ,..., X n
n

X
i 1

1
1
G Log ( X 1 X 2 X 3 ,..., X n ) Log
n
n

) :(17 200 1995 350

2000 :

200000 350000 264575

X 1 F1 X 2 F 2 . . . X n F n

: :-
X , X , ,X F1 , F2 , F3
2

X 1 F1 X 2 F2 . . . X n Fn

F LogX
F

LogG

) (18

10-0

20-10

30-20

40-30

20

68


F . Log X

Log X

Xi

5 x 0.699 = 3.495

Log 5 = 0.699

0 10

15 x 1.176 = 9.408

Log 15 = 1.176

15

10 20

25 x 1.397 = 4.191

Log 25 = 1.397

25

20 30

35 x 1.544 = 6.176

Log 35 = 1.544

35

30 40

20

Total

23.27

23 . 27
1 . 16
20

F LogX
F

LogG

G 14 . 58

. 2 -4 -3

Harmonic mean

:
:
n
1
1
1

H
n i 1 X

or

n
1
Xi

i 1

) : (19 2 , 5 , 3 , 4 , 7 , 8 , 8 :

7
7

4 . 17
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 . 68

2 5 3 4 7 8 8
) : (20 3 5 6 6 7 10 12 ::
69

n
1
Xi

i 1

H= 5.28
:
X1, X2, ,Xn
f1,f2,,fn

fi
fi
X i

)(21 100

2.5 7.5

12.5 17.5

7.5 12.5

17.5 22.5

20

20

50

100

10

Xi

f
20

2.5 7.5
7.5 12.5

f*1/X

1/X

20 * 0.2 = 4

1 / 5 = 0.2

50 * 0.1 = 5

1 / 10 = 0.1

10

50

20 * 0.067 = 1.34

1 / 15 = 0.0.67

15

20

12.5 17.5

10 * 0.05 = 0.5

1 / 20 = 0.05

20

10

17.5 22.5

100

Total

10.84

/ h

9 . 25 Km

100
10 . 84

70

i
f
i


/ /1
/ 2
/ 3
/ 4
/ 5
/ 6
/ 7
/8 12
) (
:
3 , 4 , 7 , 8 , 10 , 9 , 2 , 5 , 6 , 9 , 7 , 5 .
/9 75
) (

2-4

5-7

8-10

11-13

14-16

17-19

20-22

12

20

13

10

75

/10 9
:
63 , 55 , 62 , 53 , 70 , 68 , 65 , 79 , 80
/11 12

20 , 22 , 19.5 , 26 , 24 .5 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 18 , 20 , 23 , 25
71

 /12 80
) (
220-240 200-220 180-200 160-180 140-160 120-140 100-120
80
6
12
18
20
14
7
3

/13 50

150-160

160-170

170-180

180-190

190-200

12

15

50

/14

17-15
5

20-18
9

23-21
13

26 -24
11

29-27
8

32-30
4

50

/15
2 , 12 , 5 , 10 , 4 , 3 , 7

/16

20-14
7

26-20
9

32 -26
3

72

38-32
10

44-38
7

50-44
4

40

73

 -4
- :
) ( .
) (1 9
:

7, 8 , 9 , 10 , 11.

7 8 9 10 11
45

9
5
5
:

3, 6, 9, 12, 15

3 8 9 10 11
45

9
5
5

: 1 , 5 , 9 , 13 , 17

1 5 9 13 17
45

9
5
5

I 5 I 4 I 3 I 2 I 1
5 4 3 2 1

I6
6

I I I I I
7

I1
1

2I
2

3I

4I
4

5I
5

I
6

7I
7

8I
8

9I

2I
2

4I 3I
4 3

7I 6I
7 6

8I
8

74

10

11

I
12

12

I
13

13

14I

14

I
I 11I 10
I
4I1 13
14 13 12 11 10

10
I
10

11
I
11

12
I
12

13

14
I
14

18 I 17 I 16I 15I

15

16

17

I
I16 I
17
17 16 15

15
I
15

16
I
16

18

I
18
18

18
I
I
18 17

 .1 -4
:
-1
-2
.1-1 -4 :
) ....( .
.2-1 -4 :
.
.2 -4
- Range
2 Quartile Deviation
3 Variance
4 Standard Deviation
- 5 Coefficient of Variation
.1-2 -4 :

. xL xs
:
=

R XL XS
:
U L
=

R U L
75

 )(1
2 , 5 , 3 , 8 , 7 , 10 , 9 , 12 , 15

R X L X S 15 2 13
) (2

8-16
20

16-24
25

32-40
6

24-32
8

40-48
3

62

R U L 48 8 40


.
.1-1-2-4
-:
- 1
- 2 .
: :
-1 .
- 2
-3

- 4 .
.3 -4

) (

76

 ) (
) ( ) ( .

. ) ( Q1 Q3 Q.D
:

Q 3 Q1
2

Q .D

.1-3 -4
) (
.
) ( = 4 /

n
4

T .Q 1

T.Q1 n
) ( = ) 3 * ( 4 /

n
3
4

T .Q

75%

) (1 :
15 , 10 , 12 , 8 , 2 , 5 , ,7 , 3
:
77

 -1

2 , 3 ,5 , 7 , 8 , 10 , 12 , 15
-2 )(

n 8
2
4 4

T .Q1

) (3

Q1 3
-3 ) (

n
8
3 3 6
4
4

T .Q 3

10

Q 3 10
-4

Q1
10 3

3 .5
2
2

Q .D

.2-3 -4
) (
.
:
.1
.2 :

fi
4

T . Q fi
78

 .3 :
) 3

fi
4

T .Q

.4 :
-

hk

T .Q 1 f K
fK

Q 1 L1

Q1

L1

T.Q1

fi

T .Q

fk-1
fk
hk
-
:

hk

fK
fK

T .Q

L3

Q3

L3
T.Q3

fi

T .Q

fk-1
f k ) (
hk
.5 :

Q1
2

79

Q .D

 : 50
0-10
5

10-20
8

30-40
16

20-30
15

50

40-50
6

5
13
28
44
50

Fk-1
T.Q1
T.Q3

10
20
30
40
50

5
8
15
16
6
50

0-10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50

50
12 . 5
4

fi
4

T .Q 1

-1

f k 13

h k 10

hk

19 . 375

f k 1 5
1

T .Q 1 f K
fK

T .Q 1 12 . 5

Q 1 L1

12 . 5 5
7 . 5 10
10 10
13 5
8

Q 1 10

-2
50
3 37 . 5
4

fi

T .Q 3

hk

fK
fK

T .Q
80

L1 10

L3

 35 . 937

37 . 5 28
9 . 5 10
10 30
44 28
16

30

8 . 2812

Q 3 Q1
35 . 937 19 . 375

2
2

Q .D

.3-3 -4
:
.1
.2
.3
.4


:
:

0-200
18

200-400
72

400-600
154

600-800
111

800-1000
45

:



100
200
400
600
800
1000

0
18
90
244
355
400
81

400

 ) ( 410 ) ( 700

145

Q 3 Q1
700 410

2
2

Q .D

.
.4 -3 -4

. .
.4-4 Variance

S2

.1 -4 -4 ) ( 2
x1, x2 ,..., x N :
) 2 ( :

82

. x N :

)(1
15 :
11 12 10

10 13 14

14 12 9

13

1
x
N
(150) 10

(5 13 7 ... 12 10)

15

1
15

( x ) 2

83

(x )2

)(x

25

5-10 = -5

13

-3

16

14

12

-1

16

-4

-2

10

13

16

14

16

-4

11

12

10

130

150

( x ) 2 130

:
:

8 . 67

130
15

x u 2
N

.2 -4 -4 ) ( s 2
2
n
x1 , x2 ,..., xn s2:

84

x x
n 1

x x x n :
.
)(2
5 .
5

13 10

:
2

x x
n 1

1
1
1
x x (8 13 10 5 9) (45) 9
n
5
5

x x 2

45

10

13

-4

-1

x x

34

16

16

x x 2

x 2 34

:
34
34

8 .5
)( 5 1
4

x x 2

n 1
2

8.5
.
85

 .5 -4 Standard Deviation


8.5 "
8.5 "

.
:

S tan dard Deviation Variance

)(1
15 :
11 12 10

10 13 14

14 12 9

13

)( ) ( :

1
2
2
x
N
8 . 67 2 . 94

1
1630 10 2
15

2.94 .
) (

.

86

 .1-5-4 -: :
- :
2

X
n

): (1
10
56, 68, 72, 63, 65, 68, 71, 69, 62, 56, :
:
-1

56 68 72 63 65 68 71 69 56
X
65
10
-2

X X

X X

81

56 65 = -9

56

68 65 = 3

68

49

72 65 = 7

72

63 65 = -2

63

65 65 = 0

65

68 65 = 3

68

36

71 65 = 6

71

16

69 65 = 4

69

62 65 = -3

62

81

56 65 = -9

56

294
87

Total

 - 3
2

29 . 4 5 . 422

X
n

S
2

294
10

X
n

) ( :
2

): (2
10
56, 68, 72, 63, 65, 68, 71, 69, 62, 56, :
-1 : -2 -3

X2

3136

56

4624

68

5184

72

3969

63

4225

65

4624

68

5041

71

4761

69

3844

62

3136

56

42544

88

X 650 X

 650 2
29 . 4 5 . 422

294

10

42544

10

10

.2-5 -4
-1 ) : (

f i X i X
fi

fi
) (Xi-
:
-1 Xi

f X
-2 f
-3 X X
i

-2
-3
-4
-5
)(1

0-2
5

4-6
20

2-4
10

:
) (2

89

6-8
10

8-10
5

50

250
50

fi

(Xi -)2
42=16
4
0
4
16
40

Fi(Xi -)2
5*16=80
40
0
40
80
240

Fi Xi
5*1=5
30
100
70
45
250

)(Xi -
1 -5= - 4
-2
0
2
4

Fi
5
10
20
10
5
50

Xi
1
3
5
7
9

0 -2
2 -4
4 -6
6 -8
8 -10

)(5
4 . 8 2 . 19

240

50

f i X i X
fi

- :
2

X i
fi

fi

2
i

fi X

X
fi

2
i

X
fi

) (
)(2

8-10
6-8
4-6
2-4
0-2

50
5
10
20
10
5

:
-1
-2
-3
-4

90

 -5
:

)(1
Xi

)(4
fi Xi2

)(3
Xi2

) (2
fi Xi

fi

5*1=5

12=1

5*1=5

0 -2

10*9=90

30

10

2-4

500

25

100

20

4 -6

490

49

70

10

6 -8

405

81

45

8 -10

50

250

1490
)(5

250 2
50

1490

fi

50
4 . 8 2 . 19

fi

240
50

2
i

fi X

1250
50

1490

.3-5 -4
-1
-1
-2
-3
-4
-2
-1
-2
-3 .
91

 .6 -4 Coefficient of Variation

) ( 100 )( C .V
:

S
X

C .V

1
1

Q
Q

3
3

Q
Q

C .V

49 - 40
2

59 - 50
9

69 - 60
15

79 - 70
11

89 - 80
2

S
X

C .V

S 10 . 67
;
X 65 . 75
S
10 . 67
C .V

0 . 167
X
65 . 75

1
1

Q
Q

3
3

Q
Q

92

C .V

99 - 90
1

40

 73 . 14
0 . 111

58 . 39

73 . 14 58 . 39
73 . 14 58 . 39

1
1

Q
Q

3
3

Q
Q

C .V

.7 -4 Measures of Shape
:
.1-7 -4 Skewness
Symmetric
.1-1-7 -4 " " Person

:
= ) 3 (
"" .

3 Mean Median
3 X Med

S tan dard Deviation

S
) ( ""

Med S

:
-1 ) = ( ) ( 0
.
-2 ) < ( ) ( 0
.
-3 ) > ( ) ( 0
.

93

.2-1-7 -4 ""
100
15 ) ( v15
15% p ) (v p
:

) x(1) x( 2) ... x( n

.1 :
.2 :

100

. R ( n 1)

.3 R ) ) .( v15 x( R
.4 R ) (v p :

p xl R l xu xl
v p v100 p v 50
20 80
:

:
.1 ) (v80 ) (v50 ) (v 20 ) (v50
94

 .
.2 ) (v80 ) (v50 ) (v 20 ) (v50
.
.3 ) (v80 ) (v50 ) (v 20 ) (v50
.
.

50 50 p

100 p

100 p p

p ,100 p

v p v50 v100 p :
( v 25 Q1 ) 25 75

) ( v75 Q3 :

Q3 Q2 Q2 Q1
Q3 Q1

8 .
66 85 52 78 80 91 74 58
-1 : " " .
-2 .

-1 "" .
) (2 -5 :
-1 :

95

 x 584 , x 2 43890

x2

4356

66

7225

85

2704

52

6084

78

6400

80

8281

91

5476

74

3364

58

43890

584

x
x 584 73
n
8
2
x 2 x 2 n
s
43890 (584 ) 8
8 1
n 1

1258 179 .71428 13 .406

7

-2 :
:

(n+1)/2=(8+1)/2=4.5

52 58 66 74 78 80 85 91
8

6.75

4.5

2.25

Med 74 0.5(78 74) 76

-3 ""
0.67

)3(73 76

s.c 3( x Med )
S

13.406

.
-2 .
:
-1 .
:

(n+1)/4=(8+1)(1/4)=2.25
96

Q1 58 (2.25 2)(66 58) 60

-2 .
(n+1)/(3/4)=(8+1) (3/4)=6.75

Q3 80 (6.75 6)(85 80) 83.75

-3 ) (

Med (Q2 ) 76
:

) (Q3 Q2 ) (Q2 Q1 ) (83 .75 76 ) (76 60

) (83 .75 60
) (Q3 Q1

8.25
0.35
23 .75

.
.2-7 -4 Kurtosis
.



:

97

) (K :
4

x x
S4

1
K n

( x x ) 4 n s .
3
:
.1 k=3 .
.2 k>3 .
.3 k<3 )( .

8 .
66 85 52 78 80 91 74 58
:
) ( 1 -5 :
584

74

58

91

x 73

78

80

85

52

66

-15

18

-21

12

-7

)(x x

1258

225

324

49

25

441

144

49

(x x)2

1 50625 376246

625 2401 104976

2401 20736 194481

:
( x x ) 2
1258
s

13.406
n 1
7
1
1
( x x ) 2 (376246) 47030.75

n
8

:
47030.75
47030.75

1.456
4
)(32299.58
)(13.406

.
98

(x x)4


/1 |
/2 :
.
/3
/4
/5
/6
/7
/8

7 , 8 , 11 , 10 , 4 , 3 , 5 , 6

7 , 9 , 12 , 16 , 8, 4 , 5 , 7

/9 50

50-55

55-60

60-65

65-70

70-75

75-80

80-85

11

16

50

/10
2 , 7, 9 , 3, 10 , 12 , 22 , 4 , 8 , 20 , 19 , 18 , 17 , 5 , 21 , 23
/11

0-10
3

10-30
6

30-50
13

50-65
15

65-90
12

90-100
9

100-110
2

60

/12 ) (

19 , 13 , 15 , 12 , 10 , 9
99

 /13

10-20

20-30

30-40

40-50

50-60

60-70

70-80

25

30

42

68

85

35

15

300

/14 :
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5

9-3
10

15 - 9
12

21 - 15
8

100

27 - 21
6

33 - 27
3

39 - 33
40
1

101

 -5

Correlation

)( )(

.
.1 -5 :
-
-
-
.2 -5 : .

1+ 1 -
) (
. . r y
.1-2 -5
.1 ) ( :

X . y y

2
2
X . y y

i
i

X
X

r y

r y X Y
Xi yi

: ) (X )(Y
X

2, 2 , 5 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 3 , 5 , 4 ,

3, 5 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 11 , 6 , 8 , 6 ,

102

 :
1 X Y
2
3 X Y

63
7
9

36
4 ; Y
9

X
n

) ( Xi - ) . ( Yi -

( Yi - )2

) ( Yi -

Yi

( Xi - )2

) ( Xi -

Xi

-2 .-4=8

16

-4

2 4 = -2

-2

-2

16

11

-1

-1

-1

24

44

63

16

36

24
0 .905
16 44

X . Y Y

X . Y Y

.2 :

103

X
X

r y

X y
] ] .[ n . y y
i

n . X i yi

2
i

[n . X i ( X i ) 2

: ) (X ) (y

200 , 300 , 400 , 600 , 900

180 , 270 , 320 , 480 , 700

:
-1 X
-2 y
-3 Xy
-4 x2 y2

yi2

Xi2

Xi yi

yi

Xi

32400

40000

36000

180

200

72900

90000

81000

720

300

102400

160000

128000

320

400

230400

360000

288000

480

600

490000

810000

630000

700

900

928100

1460000

1163000

1950

2400

X y
] ] .[ n . y y
i

2
i

n . X i yi
[n . X i ( X i ) 2
2

104

51163000 2400 1950

5 1460000 2400 .5 928100 1950

2

5815000 4680000
7300000 5760000 . 4640500 3802500

1135000
1135000

0 .999
1136010
.
5
1540000 . 838000

.3 -5 ) (

.
)
( .
.
.
.1-3 -5 : )
(

6. d i2

n. n 2 1

r y 1

:
Di = Xi-yi Xi yi

6. X i yi

n. n 2 1

105

r y 1

 : 6

X
y
:

-1
:

-1 X y
-2 di ) (Xi yi
-3 di ) (Xi yi
-4 di di2
-5 .

d i2

) di = (Xi yi

-1

-1

-1

Total

68
48
1
1 0.228 0.772
6.36 1
210
106

6. d i2

n. n 2 1

r y 1

 .2-3 -5

:
)(

m(m2-1)\12 di2 m
di2 . X. y
:

X :

y :
.
:
.1 X
.2 ) ( X
.3 y
.4 y
.5 di ) (Xi yi
.6 di di2
.7 X y
m(m2-1)\12
.1
.2 :

107

) 6 . ( d i2 t

n . n2 1

r y 1

3
4

d i2

di

12.25

-3.5

7.5

2.25

1.5

7.5

2.25

1.5

2.5

10

2.25

-1.5

2.5

-1

-3

10

10

10

39

:
: X 3 m = 3
m(m2-1)\12 = 3(32-1)\12 = 24\12 = 2
3
m(m2-1)\12 = 3(9-1)\12 = 24\12 = 2
: y m = 2
m (m2-1)\12 = 2(22-1)\12 = 2(4-1)\12 = 6\12 = 0.5
108

 3 m = 3
3(32-1)\12 = 3*8 \12 = 24\12 = 2
m = 2
2(22-1)\12 = 2*3 \12 = 6\12 = 0.5

2 + 2 + 0.5 + 2 + 0.5 = 7
:

6 . 39 7
6 46

1 0.2787 0.721
10 . 10 2 1
990

) 6 . ( d i2 t

n . n2 1

r y 1

.4 -5 )(
) ( K )
( m . Km fi
) (X fj ) (y :
Xi ) X(
Yi ) y(
fi X
fj y
Li X
Lj y
A X
B y
109

Xi A
Li

Ui

yj B
Lj

Uj

Ui fi Ui fi
Uj fj Uj fj
Ui2 fi Ui fi
Uj2 fj Uj fj
Ui Vj fij Ui Vj i X j y
n n = fj =fi
X y :

Vj f

f i . V j f

2
j

U i V j f ij

. n
2

U i fi

fi

2
i

r y

:
100 X y
Xy

110

y
50-60

40-50

30- 40

fi

70-80

60-70

40-50

50-60

19

10

60-70

25

18

11

80-90

90-100

100

26

21

31

X
12
17

16

:
.1 X
XiA
Li

.2 Ui

Ui

.3 Ui fi
.4 Ui fi
.5 y
.6 Vj

Yj B
Lj

Vi

.7 Vj fj
.8 Vj f i

.9 U i .V j . f ij
.10 V i .U i . f ij

111

70-80

fj

30-40

40-50

50-60

60-70

70-80

fi

Xi

Ui

Uifi

Ui2fi

UiVjfij

2
8

4
8

6
0

12

45

-2

-24

48

16

X
40-50
8

50-60

3
6

6
6

7
0

1
-1

17

55

-1

17

17

11

60-70

1
0

3
0
3
-3

10
0
5
0

4
0
8
8

1
0
9
18

19

65

25

75

25

25

23

80-90

2
0

5
10

11
44

18

85

36

72

54

90-100

0
16

1
0
31

3
9
21

5
30
26

95

27

81

39

fj

0
6

100

47

234

143

Yj

35

45

55

65

75

Vj

-2

-1

Vjfj

-12

-16

21

25

45

Vj2fj

24

16

21

104

156

VjUifij

14

11

26

92

143

70-80

r y

r y

n
n

100

2
i

fi

U i V j f ij

100 143
243

. n
2

U i fi

47

f i . V j f
m

2
j

47 . 45
2 .100 156 45 2

112

Vj f

0 . 657

 .5 -5

Coefficient of Association

:
2*2 . Xi yi
2*2 :

Y2

Y1

f1

f12

f11

X1

f2

f22

f21

X2

f.2

f.1

X y :

f 11 f 22 f 12 f 21
f 11 f 22 f 12 f 21

C.A

=
+
+1 -1
)(1

.

113

90

f12
50

f11
40

110

f22
60

f21
50

200

110

90

40 . 60 50 . 50
40 . 60 50 . 50
0 . 02

100
4900

f 11 f 22 f 12 f 21

f 11 f 22 f 12 f 21
2500
2500

2400
2400

C .A

)(2

37

12

25

60

50

10

97

69

35

114

C .A

f 11 f 22 f 12 f 21
25 . 50 12 . 10

25 . 50 12 . 10
f 11 f 22 f 12 f 21

1250 120
1130

0 . 824
1250 120
1370

115

 .6 -5

Coefficient of contingency

r 1
r

f 132
f 112
f 122
f1m 2
1 f 11
r1

.
T 1 .T 1 T 1 .T 2
T 1 .T 3
T 1 .T . m
T1
Ti

f 232
f 122
f 222
f1m 2
1 f 21
r2

.
T 2 .T 1 T 2 .T 2
T 2 .T 3
T 2 .T . m
T2
Ti
2

r3r4

r r1 r2 r3
:
:

46

12

25

95

35

50

10

105

40

45

20

246

84

107

55

:
.1 r1 :
116

f 132
f 112
f 122
f1m 2
1 f 11
r1

.
T 1 .T 1 T 1 .T 2
T 1 .T 3
T 1 .T . m
T1
Ti

r1

25

46 . 55

12 2

46 . 107

625
2530

0 . 247

144
4922

46 . 84
81
3864

0 . 02 0 . 02

0 . 296

f 232
f 122
f 222
f1m 2
1 f 21
r2

.
T 2 .T 1 T 2 .T 2
T 2 .T 3
T 2 .T . m
T2
Ti
2

r2

r3

10

95 . 55
20

105 . 55

50 2
95 . 107

45 2
105 . 107

35

95 . 84

40

0 . 419

105 . 84

0 . 431

r r1 r2 r3 0.296 0.419 0.431 1.143

C

r 1

1 . 143 1

1 . 143

0 . 143
1 . 143

0 . 125 0 . 354

117

/1 y X :
X

2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 ,

0 , 3 , 4 , 4 , 6 , 11 ,

/2 y X
2, 2, 5, 4, 5, 6, 3, 5, 4,

3 , 5 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 11 , 6 , 8 , 6 ,

/3 6

/ 4
) (343

305

113

192

38

34

343

117

226

118

 /5
6 . ) . 0.886 : (
63

62

61

56

54

55

23600

23203

23203

23100

22300

21906

/6

105

20

80

110

40

40

30

135

85

40

10

350

130

100

120

/7 30 :
C ) 0.22 : (
Y

10

11

30

11

19

119

120

 -6 Time Senes
.1 -6 : ) (
. 1924 1970
.

. .



.
:

1990
120

1991
160

1992
130

1993
150

1994
180

1995
140

121

1996
170

1997
190

 .2 -6 :
:
.1
.2
.3
.4
-1 :
.
.
.

.

) ( .

)(

- 2 :
....
.
122


.
3 :
) ( .
4 :
.

.1-2 -6
.1
.2
.3
.2-2 -6

. .


:

:

1964 , 1963 , 1962 , 1961 , 1960 , 1959 , 1958 , 1957 1956 , 1955

7.88 , 7.62 , 7.37 , 7.13 , 6.89 , 6.67 , 6.45 , 6.26 ,6.09 , 5.93

)(
:
) (1959 1955 1957
) (1964- 1960 1962
:
123

5.93 6.09 6.26 6.45 6.67

6.28
5

X
n

6.89 7.13 7.37 7.62 7.88

7.38
5

X
n

) ( ) (
) (

.3-2 -6 :





.
124

 : yi 1990 1998
.
:

1998 , 1997 , 1996 , 1995 , 1994 , 1993 , 1992 , 1991 , 1990

280 , 220 , 230 , 250 , 260 , 220 , 230 , 240 , 210

yi
1990

210

) (

1991

240

680

226.67

1992

230

690

230

1993

220

710

236.67

1994

260

730

243.33

1995

250

740

246.67

1996

230

700

233.33

1997

220

730

243.33

1998

280

125

 .4-2 -6

Yi a b . E
a b
b

y E n Y E

b
E n E
i

a Y b E
yi

;
126

Ei
n

 : ) ( 98-96 :
yi

280 , 220 , 230 , 250 , 260 , 220 , 230 , 240 , 210

Ei

,4 , 3 , 2 , 1 ,

,5

,6

,7

, 8

: 1999
2000

E i2

yi Ei

yi

Ei

210

210

480

240

690

230

16

880

220

25

1300

260

36

1500

250

49

1610

230

64

1760

220

81

2520

280

285

10950

2140

45

y i E i

Ei

45
5
n
9
y i 2140 237 . 78
Y
n
9

127

350
4 . 17
60

y E n Y E 10950 9 5 237 . 78
285 9 5
E n E
i

a Y b E 237 . 78 4 . 17 .5 237 . 78 20 . 85 216 . 93

Yi a b . E 216.93 4.17 E
1999 2000
E i :

E 10

1999

Y1999 a b . E 216 .93 4.17 10 258 .63

E 11

2000

Y2000 a b . E 216 .93 4.17 11 262 .8

E I 2004

E 15.417

5 / 2005

Y2000 a b . E 216 .93 4.17 15.417 281 .22

/1 1991 2000
:
17.8 , 20.4 , 16.1 , 13.8, 12.9, 16.8, 16.9 15.1 , 15.2 ,16.2 :

2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 :

/2 /
1990
y I
E

31
1982

46
1983

55
1984

60
1985
128

77
1986

69
1987

78
1988

81
1989

129

 -7 Index number



.
.


.
:
.
:
) (
.
: .
.1 -7 :
: Simple index number
: Weighted index number
: .

.
.1-1 -7 Simple index number


*100 .
130


= ----------------------------------

Pi

Pi

P i

PO

= * 100 %

Pi
n 100 %
P
n

P .I

100 %

Pi
Pi

P .I

:
) (1993 ) (1969
1993 1969

131

1969

1993

600

4000

30

700

32

320

662

4390

4390
100 % 663 %
662

100 %

Pi
Pi

P .I

663 1969
.1-1-1 -7
qi
qo *100
:

qi
100
q

Q .I

* 100
: = * V
:

pi qi
p q

Q .I

132

V q p

 pi qi
po qo
:
(150) 1991 ) (20
1997 ) (250 ) (22 .
: - 1997 1991
1997 1991
1997
:
- 1991

22
100 % 110
20

100 %

Pi 1997
P 1991

P .I

10% 1997
-

250
100 % 166 . 67 %
150

100 %

q i 1997
q 1991

Q .I

66.67% 1997
-

P .1 Q .I
110 166 . 67
100 %
100 % 183 . 3 %
100
100

V .I

P .1 Q .I
110 166 . 67
100 %
100 % 183 . 3 %
100
100
133

V .I

 .2 -7 :

. .

) (
) (
:
-1 Laspeyers Index
-2 Paasche
-3 )Fisher(
.1-2 -7 :
*
= 100* -----------------------------------------------------
*

100 %

Pi q
P q

P . I ( Las .)

: 1957 , 1939 :
1957 1939

1939
2
4
1
1

1939
18
6
20
250

1957
4
9
3
3

:
134

1957
24
12
32
400

 *
*
) ( 1939

.q

1939

) ( 1939

. q

) ( 1957

pi

2 18 36

4 18 72

4 6 24

9 6 54

1 20 20

3 20 60

1 250 250

250 3 750

330

100 % 284 %

936

936
330

100 %

Pi q
P q

P . I Las .

)
(
.2-2 -7 ) (
=

*
*100
*

:
100 %

Pi q i
P q i

P . I Paa .

: 1957 1939 :
1957 1939

1939
2
4
1
1

1939
18
6
20
250

1957
4
9
3
3

:
135

1957
24
12
32
400

 .1 *
.2 *
) ( 1957

. qi

1939

. qi

) ( 1957

) ( 1957

pi

2 24 48

24 4 96

12 4 48

12 9 108

32 1 32

32 3 96

400 1 400

400 3 1200

528

100 % 284 %

1500
528

1500

100 %

Pi q i
P q i

P . I Paa .

.3-2 -7

*

piqi
100 %
p q i

piq
.
p q

P . I Fis .

piqi
100 %
p q i

piq
.
p q

P . I Fis .

936 1500

.
100 %
330 528

2 . 84 2 . 84 100 % 284 %

:
136

1
2
3
4

Pi

10
5
9
15

Po

4
2
6
8

qi

25
30
20
15

qo

20
40
15
10

:
-
-
- )(
:
-

pi . q

p .q

4 20 80

10 20 200

2 40 80

5 40 200

6 15 90

9 15 135

8 10 80

15 10 150

330

685
100 % 207 %
330

685

100 %

137

Pi q
P q

P . I Las .

pi

.qi

.qi

10 25 250

4 25 100

5 30 150

2 30 60

9 20 180

6 20 120

15 15 225

8 15 120

805

P . I Paa .

400

Pi q i
P q i

100 %

805
100 % 201 %
400
-

P . I Fis .

piq
.
p q

685 805

.
100 %
330
400

138

piqi
100 %
p q i

2 . 07 2 . 01 100 % 202 %

/1 2000 : 2009

2000

2009

70

200

20

80

400

900

/2 :
2010

2000

6000

10

2000

10

8000

15

3000

7500

20

5000

-1 :
-2 ) (
-3 ) (
-4 ) (
/3 C B A .2013 2005

(P0) 2005

(P1) 2013

(Q0)2005

(Q1)2013

13

18

14

16

21

12

22

28

10

18

(1) :

) (2
139

140

-8

....
.1 -8 :
.
.
.
.2 -8
.
.
.



.
) (
.

1977
. - 1947 1934 1927

. 1965 -1957 1927

. 1934


) ( .
1947
141

 . .
.
. . 1957
1957 . 1965 1967
.
.
.
.1-2 -8
)
... (
.
. .

. .
.2-2 -8
.
.


. .

. .
.3 -8 :


) (1 ) (2 ) (3
.
142

 .1-3 -8
1957
1958 1957
. 1958
= + ) + (

.
.2-3 -8

d L
L = A+ (n-1) d

= L1
A
) = N1 + (
= d .
L2
) = N (1+
A2 .
.3-3 -8

L = A *Rn-1
143

 R L1 , A1
) n1 ( 1+

L2
A2
N2 .
:
4816185 1947 1957 6339960
1964 :
:
:
:
L1= A +(n-1)d
6339960= 486185 + (11-1) d
d= 633990-4816185 /10 = 152378
L2 = 6339960+(8-1)* 152378
L= 6339960 +1066346 = 7406306 1964
:
L1= A *Rn1-1
6339960= 4816185 * R11*1
R= (6339960 / 4816185 )1/10
)Log R= 1/10 ( Log 6339960- Log 4816185
144

) Log R =1/10 (6.8021- 6.6826

LogR = 0.01195
R
L2 = 1964
L2 = 6339960 * R8-1
Log L2= Log 6339960 +7* Log R
Log L2 = 6.8021 + 0.01195

Log R = 0.01195
Log L2= 6.8021+0.08365 = 6.88575
LogL2 = 7688000 . 1964

145

0.001
10.83
13.82
16.27
18.47
20.52
22.46
24.32
26.13
27.88
29.59
31.26
32.91
34.53
36.12
37.70
39.25
40.79
42.31
43.82
45.32
46.80
48.27
49.73
51.18
52.62
54.05

0.01
6.64
9.21
11.35
13.28
15.09
16.81
18.48
20.09
21.67
23.21
24.73
26.22
27.69
29.14
30.58
32.00
33.41
34.81
36.19
37.57
38.93
40.29
41.64
42.98
44.31
45.64
146

0.05
3.84
5.99
7.82
9.49
11.07
12.59
14.07
15.51
16.92
18.31
19.68
21.03
22.36
23.69
25.00
26.30
27.59
28.87
30.14
31.41
32.67
33.92
35.17
36.42
37.65
38.89

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26

27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58

40.11
41.34
42.56
43.77
44.99
46.19
47.40
48.60
49.80
51.00
52.19
53.38
54.57
55.76
56.94
58.12
59.30
60.48
61.66
62.83
64.00
65.17
66.34
67.51
68.67
69.83
70.99
72.15
73.31
74.47
75.62
76.78

46.96
48.28
49.59
50.89
52.19
53.49
54.78
56.06
57.34
58.62
59.89
61.16
62.43
63.69
64.95
66.21
67.46
68.71
69.96
71.20
72.44
73.68
74.92
76.15
77.39
78.62
79.84
81.07
82.29
83.52
84.73
85.95
147

55.48
56.89
58.30
59.70
61.10
62.49
63.87
65.25
66.62
67.99
69.35
70.71
72.06
73.41
74.75
76.09
77.42
78.75
80.08
81.40
82.72
84.03
85.35
86.66
87.97
89.27
90.57
91.88
93.17
94.47
95.75
97.03

59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90

77.93
79.08
80.23
81.38
82.53
83.68
84.82
85.97
87.11
88.25
89.39
90.53
91.67
92.81
93.95
95.08
96.22
97.35
98.49
99.62
100.75
101.88
103.01
104.14
105.27
106.40
107.52
108.65
109.77
110.90
112.02
113.15

87.17
88.38
89.59
90.80
92.01
93.22
94.42
95.63
96.83
98.03
99.23
100.42
101.62
102.82
104.01
105.20
106.39
107.58
108.77
109.96
111.15
112.33
113.51
114.70
115.88
117.06
118.24
119.41
120.59
121.77
122.94
124.12
148

98.34
99.62
100.88
102.15
103.46
104.72
105.97
107.26
108.54
109.79
111.06
112.31
113.56
114.84
116.08
117.35
118.60
119.85
121.11
122.36
123.60
124.84
126.09
127.33
128.57
129.80
131.04
132.28
133.51
134.74
135.96
137.19

138.45
139.66
140.90
142.12
143.32
144.55
145.78
146.99
148.21
149

125.29
126.46
127.63
128.80
129.97
131.14
132.31
133.47
134.64
135.81

91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

114.27
115.39
116.51
117.63
118.75
119.87
120.99
122.11
123.23
124.34

0.1 0.05 0.01 0.005 0.001 0.0005 0.0001 0.00005

0.1 0.05 0.01 0.005 0.001 0.0005 0.0001

0.2

100.14

44.70

1.89 2.92 4.30 9.92 14.09 31.60

28.01

16.33

12.92

7.45

1.64 2.35 3.18 5.84

15.53

10.31

8.61

5.60

1.53 2.13 2.78 4.60

11.18

7.98

6.87

4.77

1.48 2.02 2.57 4.03

9.08

6.79

5.96

4.32

1.44 1.94 2.45 3.71

7.89

6.08

5.41

4.03

1.41 1.89 2.36 3.50

7.12

5.62

5.04

3.83

1.40 1.86 2.31 3.36

6.59

5.29

4.78

3.69

1.38 1.83 2.26 3.25

6.21

5.05

4.59

3.58

1.37 1.81 2.23 3.17

10

5.92

4.86

4.44

3.50

1.36 1.80 2.20 3.11

11

5.70

4.72

4.32

3.43

1.36 1.78 2.18 3.05

12

5.51

4.60

4.22

3.37

1.35 1.77 2.16 3.01

13

5.36

4.50

4.14

3.33

1.35 1.76 2.14 2.98

14

5.24

4.42

4.07

3.29

1.34 1.75 2.13 2.95

15

5.13

4.35

4.01

3.25

1.34 1.75 2.12 2.92

16

5.04

4.29

3.97

3.22

1.33 1.74 2.11 2.90

17

149

18

1.33 1.73 2.10 2.88

3.20

3.92

4.23

4.97

19

1.33 1.73 2.09 2.86

3.17

3.88

4.19

4.90

20

1.33 1.72 2.09 2.85

3.15

3.85

4.15

4.84

21

1.32 1.72 2.08 2.83

3.14

3.82

4.11

4.78

22

1.32 1.72 2.07 2.82

3.12

3.79

4.08

4.74

23

1.32 1.71 2.07 2.81

3.10

3.77

4.05

4.69

24

1.32 1.71 2.06 2.80

3.09

3.75

4.02

4.65

25

1.32 1.71 2.06 2.79

3.08

3.73

4.00

4.62

26

1.31 1.71 2.06 2.78

3.07

3.71

3.97

4.59

27

1.31 1.70 2.05 2.77

3.06

3.69

3.95

4.56

28

1.31 1.70 2.05 2.76

3.05

3.67

3.93

4.53

29

1.31 1.70 2.05 2.76

3.04

3.66

3.92

4.51

30

1.31 1.70 2.04 2.75

3.03

3.65

3.90

4.48

35

1.31 1.69 2.03 2.72

3.00

3.59

3.84

4.39

40

1.30 1.68 2.02 2.70

2.97

3.55

3.79

4.32

45

1.30 1.68 2.01 2.69

2.95

3.52

3.75

4.27

50

1.30 1.68 2.01 2.68

2.94

3.50

3.72

4.23

55

1.30 1.67 2.00 2.67

2.92

3.48

3.70

4.20

60

1.30 1.67 2.00 2.66

2.91

3.46

3.68

4.17

65

1.29 1.67 2.00 2.65

2.91

3.45

3.66

4.15

70

1.29 1.67 1.99 2.65

2.90

3.43

3.65

4.13

75

1.29 1.67 1.99 2.64

2.89

3.42

3.64

4.11

80

1.29 1.66 1.99 2.64

2.89

3.42

3.63

4.10

85

1.29 1.66 1.99 2.63

2.88

3.41

3.62

4.08

90

1.29 1.66 1.99 2.63

2.88

3.40

3.61

4.07

95

1.29 1.66 1.99 2.63

2.87

3.40

3.60

4.06

100

1.29 1.66 1.98 2.63

2.87

3.39

3.60

4.05

200

1.29 1.65 1.97 2.60

2.84

3.34

3.54

3.97

500

1.28 1.65 1.96 2.59

2.82

3.31

3.50

3.92

1000

1.28 1.65 1.96 2.58

2.81

3.30

3.49

3.91

1.28 1.64 1.96 2.58

2.81

3.29

3.48

3.89

150

12

254

244

239

234

230

225

216

200

161

19.5

19.4

19.4

19.3

19.3

19.3

19.2

19.0

18.5

8.5

8.7

8.8

8.9

9.0

9.1

9.3

9.6

10.1

5.6

5.9

6.0

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.6

6.9

7.7

4.4

4.7

4.8

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.4

5.8

6.6

3.7

4.0

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.8

5.1

6.0

3.2

3.6

3.7

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.4

4.7

5.6

2.9

3.3

3.4

3.6

3.7

3.8

4.1

4.5

5.3

2.7

3.1

3.2

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.9

4.3

5.1

2.5

2.9

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.5

3.7

4.1

5.0

10

2.4

2.8

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.4

3.6

4.0

4.8

11

2.3

2.7

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.9

4.8

12

2.2

2.6

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.8

4.7

13

2.1

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.7

4.6

14

2.1

2.5

2.6

2.8

2.9

3.1

3.3

3,7

4.5

15

2.0

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.6

4.5

16

2.0

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.6

4.5

17

1.9

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.2

3.6

4.4

18

1.9

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.5

4.4

19

1.8

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.5

4.4

20

1.8

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.8

3.1

3.5

4.3

21

1.8

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.8

3.1

3.4

4.3

22

1.8

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.4

4.3

23

1.7

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.4

4.3

24

1.7

2.2

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.4

4.2

25

1.7

2.2

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.7

3.0

3.4

4.2

26

1.7

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.7

3.0

3.4

4.2

27

1.7

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.7

3.0

3.3

4.2

28

1.6

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.3

4.2

29

151

30

4.2

3.3

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.1

1.6

40

4.1

3.2

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.5

60

4.0

3.2

2.8

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.1

1.9

1.4

120

3.9

3.1

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.3

3.8

3.0

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.1

1.9

1.8

1.0

\
152

-1 . 1992
153

. 2000 -2
. 2003 -3
. 1996 -4
. 1989 -5
1970. -6
.1992 -7
. 1968 -8
9-

D. M. Bates and D. G. Watts (1988), Nonlinear Regression Analysis and Its

Applications. John Wiley & Sons, New York.

10-

Richard A. Becker, John M. Chambers and Allan R. Wilks (1988), The New S
Language. Chapman & Hall, New York. This book is often called the Blue
Book.

11-

John M. Chambers and Trevor J. Hastie eds. (1992), Statistical Models in S.

Chapman & Hall, New York. This is also called the White Book.

12-

John M. Chambers (1998) Programming with Data. Springer, New York. This is
also called the Green Book.

13-

A. C. Davison and D. V. Hinkley (1997), Bootstrap Methods and Their

Applications, Cambridge University Press.

14-

Annette J. Dobson (1990), An Introduction to Generalized Linear Models,

Chapman and Hall, London.

15-

Peter McCullagh and John A. Nelder (1989), Generalized Linear Models.

Second edition, Chapman and Hall, London.

16-

John A. Rice (1995), Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis. Second edition.
Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA.

17-

S. D. Silvey (1970), Statistical Inference. Penguin, London.6

154