Market size estimate - 2009

Parameters

Total Rural

Population
% living
Net population

905000000
100%
905000000

Adoption (first buying)

Net adoption (first buying)
Replacement pattern
Sales due to replacement
Toothbrush sales
Net toothbrush sales
(volume)

Total Urban Urban Slums Urban Non Slums

255000000

******

******

8%
20400000

92%
234600000

45%
407250000

45%
9180000

95%
222870000

2%
8145000

2%
183600

45%
100291500

415395000

9363600

323161500

747,920,100

oral care india

value
122
462.1
308.1
3.4
895.6

70.1
194.7
135.3
0
400.1

17.5%
48.7%
33.8%
0%

57%
42%
44%
0%

9%

2005
>500/yr
>1000/yr
>5000/yr
>10000/yr
>25000/yr
>45000/yr
>75000/yr
>150000/yr

202.5
186.7
33.6
7.3
2.1
1
0.5
0.2
433.9

contribution
47%
43%
8%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%

2009
219
208.7
64.2
15.2
3.3
1.6
0.8
0.4
513.2

contribution
43%
41%
13%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%

Absolute
growth

CAGR

8%
12%
91%
108%
57%
60%
60%
100%

2.0%
2.8%
17.6%
20.1%
12.0%
12.5%
12.5%
18.9%

Baseline
Manufacturer Manufacturer Manufacturer
Products

Patel

Lang

2009

2009

2009

Patel

Patel

Patel

Lang

Unit

Total $

Total $

2010E Unit

2010E

2010E

2010E Unit

Contribution
($ Millions)

Sales (a)
(Millions)

Revenue (b)
($ Millions)

Contribution (b)
($ Millions)

Sales (c)
(Millions)

Selling Price Gross Margin Gross Margin Sales

Sales
$/Unit
(in %)
(in $)
(Millions) ($ Millions)

Low-end Manual
Complete
Sensitooth
Fresh Gum

0.15
0.18
0.18

47
50
48

0.07
0.09
0.09

230.6 $
29.9 $
15.0 $

34.6 $
5.4 $
2.7 $

16.3
2.7
1.3

276.7 $
35.9 $
18.0 $

49.8
7.8
3.9

$
$
$

23.4
3.9
1.9

267.5
34.7
17.4

Surround

0.19

47

0.09

9.0 $

1.7 $

0.8

9.7 $

2.2

1.0

10.4

Kidsie
Total

0.12

48

0.06

15.0 $
299.5 $

1.8 $
46.2 $

0.9
21.9

16.2 $
356.5 $

2.3
66.0

$
$

1.1
31.3

17.4
347.4

0.29
0.53

40
52

0.12
0.28

34.4 $
8.6 $
43.0 $

10.0 $
4.6 $
14.5 $

4.0
2.4
6.4

43.0 $
10.8 $
53.8 $

15.0
6.8
21.8

$
$
$

6.0
3.6
9.5

75.7
18.9
94.6

6.40
0.56

40
60

2.56
0.34

1.5 $
0.2 $
1.7 $

9.6 $
0.1 $
9.7 $

3.8
0.1
3.9

1.7 $
0.2 $
1.9 $

12.7
0.1
12.8

$
$
$

5.1
0.1
5.2

1.9
0.3
2.1

344.2 $

70.4 $

32.2

412.1 $

100.6

46.0

444.1

Mid-Range Manual
Zagger
Directionflex
Total

Battery Operated
Swirl Brush
Refills
Total
TOTAL

(a) Patel's 20% unit increase assumes the following unit growth rates: Low End: Complete/Sensitooth Fresh Gum (20%), Surround/Kidsie (8%), Mid-range (25%), Battery-Operated (10%
(b) Both Patel's and Lang's forecasts assume a 20% increase in selling price.
(c) Lang's 29% unit increase assumes the following unit growth rates by category: Low-end (16%), Mid-range (120%), Battery-Operated (25%).

Lang
Lang

Lang

2010E

2010E

Revenue (c) Contribution (c)

($ Millions)
($ Millions)
$
$
$

48.1 $
7.5 $
3.8 $

22.6
3.7
1.8

2.4 $

1.1

$
$

2.5 $
64.3 $

1.2
30.5

$
$
$

26.3 $
12.0 $
38.4 $

10.5
6.3
16.8

$
$
$

14.4 $
0.2 $
14.6 $

5.8
0.1
5.9

117.2 $

53.2

d-range (25%), Battery-Operated (10%).

Patel 2010E Plan

Projected Income Statements

Lang 2010E Plan 1

Lang 2010E Plan 2 (3%

Inc. in Advtg.)

% Sales

2010E ($M)

% Sales

2010E ($M) % of Sales 2010E ($M)

Revenues
Trade Discount
Net Revenues

100%
10%
90%

$100.62
$10.06
$90.56

100%
10%
90%

$117.22
$11.72
$105.50

100%
10%
90%

$117.22
$11.72
$105.50

Less:
Variable manufacturing, selling and distribution
costs
= Gross Margin

46%
44%

$46.28
$44.27

46%
44%

$53.92
$51.58

46%
44%

$53.92
$51.58

Less:
Advertising
Consumer promotions and merchandising
SG&A costs
Profit from Operations

9%
3%
14%
18%

$9.06
$3.02
$14.09
$18.11

9%
3%
14%
18%

$10.55
$3.52
$16.41
$21.10

12%
3%
14%
15%

$14.07
$3.52
$16.41
$17.58