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ﻴﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻓﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻵﻭﻨﺔ ﺒﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺘﺤﻭﻻﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﺘﻤﺜل ﺘﺤـﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﻝﻜﺎﻓـﺔ
ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ،ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻯ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺠﺫﺭﻯ ﻓـﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺠـﺎﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﻨﻤـﺎﻁ
ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻋﻤل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ٠
ﻭﻓﻰ ﻅل ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﺭﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻼﺤﻘﺔ ﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺍﻷﻤﺱ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻏﻴﺭ
ﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﺘﻤﺎﻤﹰﺎ ﻝﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﻭﺁﺨﺫﺓ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻻﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﻭﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﺒﺘﻜﺭﺓ ٠ﻭﺃﺼـﺒﺢ ﺍﻷﻤـﺭ
ﻴﻘﺘﻀﻰ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺭﺅﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻀﺤﺔ ﻝﻠﺸﻜل ﺍﻝﺫﻯ ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ،ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﻠﺤﺔ ﻝﺘﻔﻌﻴل ﺩﻭﺭ
ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻯ ﻴﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﺔ
ﻤﻊ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻥ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ٠ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ ﻴﺸﻜل ﻝﺏ ﻭﺠﻭﻫﺭ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ
ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺎﺕ ﺒﺘﺨﺼﻴﺹ ﺠﺯﺀ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤـﻥ ﻭﻗـﺘﻬﻡ ﻓـﻰ
ﻻ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ ﺒﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ٠
ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻷﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﺩ ﹰ
ﻭﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﻭﺭﻯ ﺍﻷﺨﺫ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺌل " ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺘﺒﺩﺃ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ "
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) (١ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ
ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ ﻫﻭ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺇﺒﺩﺍﻋﹰﺎ ﻭﺜﺭﺍﺀ ﻝﻠﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻓﻰ ﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﻀﺎﻴﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻔﺭﺹ
ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻭﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻌﻬﺎ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻜﻔل ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻭﺘﻁﻭﺭﻫﺎ ٠
ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ ﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻬـﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻀـﺭﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴـﺔ ﻤﻬـﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ
ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻤﺩ ﺼﺎﺤﺒﻪ ﺒﺎﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺤﺹ ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺅﺴﺴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﻡ
ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻨﺒﺅﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺴﺭﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻁﻠﻭﺒﺔ ٠
ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻓﺎﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ ﻴﻔﺭﺯ ﺇﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻨﺎﺠﺤﺔ ﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘـﺔ
ﺒﺎﻝﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﺒﺸﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻀﺎﻴﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺜﻘﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ
ﻭﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺩﺭﺓ ،ﻭﺒﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻴﻔﺭﺯ ﺍﻨﺠﺢ ﺇﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻝﻠﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺼﻴﺎﻏﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫﻫﺎ
ﻭﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺭﺅﻯ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻻﺘﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺘﺒﺎﻉ ﺇﻁـﺎﺭ
ﻤﻨﻬﺠﻲ ﻴﺘﺠﻪ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ،ﻭﻴﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﻜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻝﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺒﺩﺀﹰﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴـﺎﺕ
ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻭﺠﻬﹰﺎ ﻝﻠﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﻤﻊ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺇﻫﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻰ ﻭﺇﺩﺭﺍﻙ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻝﺫﻯ ﺘﻘﻑ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ،ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻯ
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) (٢ﺴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ
ﻴﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺩﻯ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﻜﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﻴﻥ ﺃﺼـﺤﺎﺏ ﺭﺅﻴـﺔ
ﻭﻝﻬﺫﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﻴﺘﺴﻡ ﺒﻌﺩﺓ ﺴﻤﺎﺕ ﻫﻰ : Vision
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ﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻝﻐﺎﻴﺎﺕ
ﺍﻝﺒﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﻔﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻌﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻯ ﻝﻠﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻝﻴﺸﺘﻕ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ
ﻭﺯﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺭ ﺒﺩﻗﺔ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻋﻴﺔ
ﻤﻬﺎﺭﺓ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ
ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻭﺍﻹﻤﻜﺎﻨﺎﺕ
ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ
ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ
ﻤﻭﺍﻜﺒﺔ ﻋﻭﻝﻤﺔ
ﺒﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ
ﺍﻝﻔﻜﺭ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻱ
ﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ ﺫﻭﻯ
ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ
ﻤﻬﺎﺭﺓ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل
ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ
ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ
ﻤﻬﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ
ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﻤﻥ ﻭﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﺒﺩﻗﺔ
ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﺍﺌل
ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ
ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ
ﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ
ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ
ﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﺹ
ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ
ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩﺍﺕ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ
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ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﺃﻯ ﺘﻨﻅـﻴﻡ ،ﻝﺘﺤﺩﻴـﺩ ﺍﻝﻔـﺭﺹ
ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﻗﻀﺎﻴﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﻭﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻌﻬﺎ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺩﺍﺌﻡ ،ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻜﻔل ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻁﻭﺭ ٠ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ
ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﻴﻨﻘﻠﻨﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺠﺯﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻌﺯﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﺘﻨﺎﻓﺱ ﻜﻠﻬﺎ
ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺭﺅﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻜﻴﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻤﺘﺭﺍﺒﻁ ﺍﻷﺠﺯﺍﺀ – ﻭﻝﺫﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ
ﻴﻭﻀﺤﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺸﻜل ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻰ - :
ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﻓﻀـل
ﻴﻨﺼــﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴــﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼل
ﻝﻠﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺤـﺩﻭﺩﺓ
ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻴل ﻭﺠﺫﺒﻪ
ﺒﺼــﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺴــﺘﻤﺭﺓ
ﻴﺠــﺏ ﺘﻐﻴﻴــﺭﻩ ﺃﻭ ﻭﺍﻻﺤﺘﻔﺎﻅ ﺒﻪ
ﻭﺒــﻨﻔﺱ ﻤﺴــﺘﻭﻯ
ﺘﻌﺩﻴﻠﻪ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺃﻭ
ﺍﻝﺠﻭﺩﺓ
ﺤﺫﻓﻪ ﺃﻭ ﺤﻴﺎﺯﺘﻪ
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ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻰ ) ﺍﻝﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻰ (
ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﻭل ﺃﻥ % ٩٩ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺴﺌﻭﻝﻴﻥ ﻴﻤﻠﻜﻭﻥ ﻓﻜﺭﹰﺍ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﹰﺎ ﻭﻤﻬﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻰ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴـﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴـﺭ
( ﻭﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻴﻤﻴل ﺩﺍﺌﻤﹰﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻰ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﻋـﻥ ﻋﻤـﺩ ﺃﻭ Operational )thinking ﺍﻝﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻰ
ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻋﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﻤﻜﺘﺴﺒﺔ ﻷﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﺴﺄﻝﺔ ﺍﻋﺘﺎﺩﺕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻐﺎﻝﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻅﻤﻰ ﻝﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻅﻠﺕ ﻝﻤﺩﺩ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﻤﻭﻀﻊ
ﺍﺤﺘﻔﺎﺀ ﻭﺘﺸﺠﻴﻊ ٠
ﻼ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ،ﻭﻝﻜﻥ ﻁﻭﺍل ﺤﻴﺎﺘﻰ ﻜﻨﺕ ﺃﻓﻜﺭ ﺒﺎﻝﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ،
ﻝﻘﺩ ﺤﺎﻭﻝﺕ ﻓﻌ ﹰ
ﻭﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻴﺘﻌﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻝﻜﻰ ﺃﻏﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ
ﻭﺭﻏﻡ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻓﺭﻭﻗﹰﺎ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻰ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭﺍﻥ
ﻜﻠﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻤﻜﻤﻼﻥ ﻝﺒﻌﻀﻬﻤﺎ ﺍﻝﺒﻌﺽ ﻨﻅﺭﹰﺍ ﻻﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﺃﻯ ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﻓﻰ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ ﻜﻔـﺎﺀﺍﺕ
ﻼ ﺘﻭﻀﺤﻴﹰﺎ ﻝﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻭﻕ - :
ﻓﻰ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻰ ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻰ ﻨﻌﺭﺽ ﺸﻜ ﹰ
ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻭﻕ
ﺭﻏﻡ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻤﻥ ﻴﻌﺘﻘﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﺃﻫﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺍﻝﻁﻭﻴل ﻷﻨﻪ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﻀـﻤﻭﻥ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴـﻕ
ﺍﻝﻨﺠﺎﺡ ،ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻴﻜﻤﻥ ﻓﻰ ﺠﻌل ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﻫﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﺘﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ
ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ٠ﻭﻝﺫﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﻴﻥ ﻫﻡ ﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﻴﺘﻭﺠﻬﻭﻥ ﺒﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺎﺕ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺨﻠﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﺍﻝـﺫﻯ ﻴﻤﺜـل ﻓـﻰ
ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﺼﻭﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﺍﻝﺫﻯ ﻴﻌﻨﻰ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﻅﺭ ﻝﻠﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﺃﻭ ﻴﺘﻤﻨﻰ ﺤﺩﻭﺜﻪ ٠ﻫﺅﻻﺀ ﺤﻘﹰﺎ ﻫﻡ ﺼﻨﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺴـﺘﻘﺒل
ﻓﻬﻡ ﻗﺎﺩﺭﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺭﻏﺒﻭﻥ ﻓﻰ ﺤﺩﻭﺜﻪ ﺜﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﻌﻠﻪ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﺔ ٠ﻏﻴﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻝﻥ ﻴﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﺇﻻ
ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺨﺫﻨﺎ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻁﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﻭﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﻭﺘﻌﺎﻤﻠﻨﺎ ﻤﻌﻬﻤﺎ ﻓﻰ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﻷﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺤﻴل
ﺇﻫﻤﺎل ﺃﻯ ﻤﻨﻬﻤﺎ ٠ﻭﺃﻯ ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﻴﻬﻤل ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺍﻝﻁﻭﻴل ﺴﻴﻌﺭﺽ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﻝﻠﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ٠ﻝـﺫﻝﻙ ﻓـﺈﻥ
ﺃﻨﺼﺎﺭ ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﻴﺘﺨﺫﻭﻥ ﻤﻭﺍﻗﻑ ﻭﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﺜل - :
ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻰ ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺭﺩﻭﺩ ﻓﻌل ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ ﻭﻗﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﺼﻴﺭ
ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺍﻝﻁﻭﻴل ٠
ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺠﻬﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﻻﺴﺘﻜﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﺹ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﺅﺩﻯ
ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﺃﻭ ﺘﺠﻨﺏ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﻜل ٠
ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺒﺈﺒﺩﺍﺀ ﺭﺩﻭﺩ ﺃﻓﻌﺎل ﻤﻔﻴﺩﺓ ﻭﻓﻌﺎﻝﺔ ﺒﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺼﺭﻑ ﺒﺸﻜل
ﻻ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺠﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﻔﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺸﺎﻜل ٠
ﻴﻘﺭﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺒﺩ ﹰ
ﺍﻝﺤﺭﺹ – ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺩﺍﺌﻤﺔ – ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﻗﻑ ﻭﺍﻝﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﺘﺴﻡ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ
ﺘﻐﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﺒﻤﺯﻴﺞ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ،ﻴﺠﻤﻊ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻁﻭﻴل ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﻭﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻗﺼﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ٠
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ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﺎﺌﻕ ﺤﻭل ﺍﻝﻜﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ
ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ
ﻜل ﻤﺎ ﻴﺤﺘﺎﺠـﻪ ﺍﻝﻔـﺭﺩ ﻫـﻭ ﻴﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺠﻤﻴﻌﹰﺎ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻤﺴـﺘﻭﻯ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻝﻠﻐﺎﻝﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻅﻤﻰ
ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻋﺎﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺫﻜﺎﺀ ﻭﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ ﺍﻝﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ـﺭﺍﺩ ﺃﻥ
ـﻥ ﺍﻷﻓــ ﻤــ
ﺍﻹﺭﺍﺩﺓ ﻝﻠﻘﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺒﻤﺎﻴﻠﻰ-: ﻻﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺄﻝﺔ ﻻ ﺘﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻻﻨﺨﺭﺍﻁ ﻴﺼﺒﺤﻭﺍ ﺃﻜﻔـﺎﺀ ﻓـﻰ
-ﺍﻝﺘﺤــﺭﻙ ﻨﺤــﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴــﺭ ﻓﻰ ﺒﺭﻨـﺎﻤﺞ ﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤـﻰ ﻤﺤـﺩﺩ ـﻴﻁ
ﻤﺠــﺎل ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻁــ
ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴ ﹰﺎ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﺼﻭل ﻓـﻰ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺘـﻪ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﺒﺼﺭﻑ
-ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺠﻪ ﺒﻌﻘﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻔﺘﺤﺔ ﻨﺤـﻭ ـﺭ
ـﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴـ
ـﺔ ﻓـ
ﺩﺭﺠـﺔ ﻋﻠﻤﻴـ
ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻤﺴـﺘﻭﻯ
ﺘﻌﻠﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﻝﻜﻥ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ
ﻭﻅﺎﺌﻔﻬﻡ ﺃﻭﺨﻠﻔﻴـﺎﺘﻬﻡ
ﺘﺨﺼﻴﺹ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺎﻓﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ
ﺍﻝﺘﻌﻠﻡ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺔ
ﺍﻝﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ
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) (٤ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﺒﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ
ﻝﻘﺩ ﺃﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﺘﻐﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﺇﺯﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻰ ﻴﺸﺎﺒﻪ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﺼﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻬﻀﺔ ﺍﻝـﺫﻯ
ﺒﺩﺃ ﻓﻰ ﺃﻭﺭﺒﺎ ﻓﻰ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻭﺴﻁﻰ ،ﻷﻨﻨﺎ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﻨﺎ ﺍﻝﻴﻭﻡ ﻨﻌﻴﺵ ﻓﻰ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤـﻭﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻴﺔ
ﻭﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﺫﺭﻴﺔ ،ﻻ ﺘﻘل ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺃﺤﺩﺜﻬﺎ ﻋﺼﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻬﻀﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺃﺤـﺩﺜﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺜـﻭﺭﺓ
ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ،ﻭﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﺠﺫﺭﻯ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺠﺎﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﻨﻤﺎﻁ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺎﺕ
ﺇﻥ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﻤﺩ ﺒﺤﺭﻯ ﺘﻐﻤﺭ ﻋﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻴﻭﻡ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻝﻡ ﻴﺸﻬﺩ ﻤﺜﻠﻪ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﻝﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻋـﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻷﺒﺤـﺎﺙ
( ﺃﻁﻠﻕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﺴﻡ " ﺜﺎﻝﺙ ﺍﻜﺒﺭ ﺜﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﺎﺭﻤﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻝﺜﺔ " ﻷﻨﻬـﺎ Alvin Toffler ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻝﻔﻴﻥ ﺘﻭﻓﻠﺭ )
ﺘﺄﺘﻰ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺜﻭﺭﺘﻴﻥ ﺤﺩﺜﺘﺎ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻰ ،ﻫﻤﺎ ﺜﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ ﻭﺜﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ٠ﻓﻬﻨﺎﻙ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺃﺨﺫ ﻓـﻰ ﺍﻝﺤـﺩﻭﺙ
ﺠﻌل ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺘﺤل ﻤﺤل ﺍﻝﻭﺭﺸﺔ ﻭﺠﻌل ﺍﻷﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﻨﻭﻝﻭﺠﻴﺔ ﺘﺤل ﻤﺤل ﺍﻷﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﻜﺎﻨﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺠﻌل
ﻭﺒﺫﻝﻙ ﺃﺨﺫﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻭﺍﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻰ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﻝﺨﺎﺹ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻻﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ٠
ﻜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺠﻌﻠﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻠﻤﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻫﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﺠﻪ ﺒﺄﻨﻅﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﻋـﻥ
ﺍﺨﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻘﻀﺎﻴﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻴﻭﻡ ٠ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺇﺤﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻫﺎﻤﺔ ﻭﻫـﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻫـﻡ
ﺘﺨﺼﺹ ﺘﺤﺘﺎﺠﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺩﻤﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﻻ ﺘﺭﻤﻰ ﻓﻘﻁ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺨﻠﻕ ﺇﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ
ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ٠ﻭﻝﻜﻥ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻥ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ،ﺒﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﻴﺸـﻜل
ﻝﺏ ﻭﺠﻭﻫﺭ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ٠ﻝﺫﺍ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﻭل ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻤﺴـﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ
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ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺴﺌﻭﻝﻴﻥ ﻗﺩ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻓﻰ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺃﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﻭﺭﻜﻴﺯﺓ ﺃﺴﺎﺴـﻴﺔ
ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺯﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ ﻷﻨﻨﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﻔﻌل ﻗﺩ ﺩﺨﻠﻨﺎ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺜﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻔﻜﺭﻴﺔ ٠
ﻓﻰ ﻋﺎﻡ ١٩٩٢ﺒﺘﻠﺨﻴﺹ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﺇﻝـﻰ ﺘﻨﻤﻴـﺔ ﻜﻔـﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴـﺭ Pritchard ﻭ Beck Hard ﻭﻗﺩ ﻗﺎﻡ ﻜل ﻤﻥ
ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﻝﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﻜﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺌﻭﻝﻴﻥ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺒﻘﻭﻝﻬﻤﺎ :
" ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﻴﻭﺍﺠﻬﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻓﻰ
ﺨﻠﻕ ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﻴﺘﺠﻪ ﺒﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ،ﻭﻓﻰ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ – ﻭﺒﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻯ ﺇﻫﻤﺎل – ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤل
ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﻁﻭﺍﺭﺉ ﺍﻝﻴﻭﻤﻴﺔ ٠ﻭﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻋﺎﺠل ﻴﻨﺠﺢ ﺩﺍﺌﻤﹰﺎ ﻓﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻫﺎﻡ ،ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ
ﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻠﺘﻔﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺸﻜﻠﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻰ ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ،ﻷﻨﻪ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺄﻝﺔ ﻝﻴﺴﺕ ﻋﺎﺠﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻥ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻤﻬﻤﺔ
– ﻭﻝﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺃﻯ ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﻴﺭﻏﺏ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻭﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﻪ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺩﻤﺔ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺠﻌل
ﻤﺴﺄﻝﺔ ﺸﻜﻠﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻤﺎﺘﻪ "
ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﻋﻥ ﻭﻅﺎﺌﻑ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﻭﻤﺩﻯ I C I ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ Sir John Harvey ﻭﻴﻘﻭل ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ
ﺤﺎﺠﺘﻬﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ
ﺇﻥ ﺃﻯ ﺸﺨﺹ ﻝﻥ ﻴﺩﺭﻙ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻯ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﻓﺭﺹ ﺍﻝﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﻨﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺇﻻ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﺸﻐل ﻤﻨﺼﺒﹰﺎ ﻗﻴﺎﺩﻴﹰﺎ ﻴﺠﻌﻠﻪ
ﻴﺩﺭﻙ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺌﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﻁﺎﻗﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻷﻋﺒﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻬﺎﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺭﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ٠ﻭﺒﺎﻝﻁﺒﻊ ﻝﻥ ﻴﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ
ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻗﻑ ﺇﻻ ﻤﻥ ﻴﺭﻯ ﺒﻭﻀﻭﺡ ﺸﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻔﻌﻠﻪ ٠
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ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻫﻭ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺜﺭﻭﺓ ﺇﻨﺴﺎﻨﻴﺔ – ﻝﻜﻥ ﻝﻸﺴﻑ ﻴﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭﻭﻥ ﺃﻨﻬﻡ ﺃﻜﻔﺎﺀ ﺠﺩﹰﺍ ﻓﻰ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺔ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻻ ﻴﺴﺘﻔﻴﺩﻭﻥ
ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺇﻻ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻀﺌﻴل ﺠﺩﹰﺍ ،ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﻌﻠﻬﻡ ﻻ ﻴﻔﻜﺭﻭﻥ ﻓﻰ ﺒﺫل ﺃﻯ ﻤﺠﻬﻭﺩ ﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺘﻬﻡ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ
ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ
ﻭﺭﻏﻡ ﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﺴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻤﻨﻬﻡ ﻻ ﺘﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ
ﻝﺩﻴﻪ ﻤﻬﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺅﺩﻯ ﺒﺎﻹﺴﺭﺍﻉ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻝﻸﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ - :
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ﻴﻤﻜﻨﻙ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﻐﻠﺏ
ﻭﺍﻵﻥ ﻋﺯﻴﺯﻯ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺌﺩ
ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ ﻗﺼﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﹰﺎ
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) (٥ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻓﻴﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻀﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﻼﺯﻡ
ﻗﻀﺎﺅﻩ ﻓﻰ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ
ﺇﻥ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻀﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺨﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﻜﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺌﻭﻝﻴﻥ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻝﺘﻬﻡ
ﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻬﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﻡ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﹰﺎ ٠ﺇﺫ ﺃﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﺩ ﺍﻋﺘﺎﺩﻭﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﺭﻋﺔ ﻓﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺃﻋﻤـﺎﻝﻬﻡ ﻭﻫـﺫﺍ
ﻴﻤﺜل ﺠﺎﻨﺒﹰﺎ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻤﺴﺄﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ،ﻭﻗﺩ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﻴﻠﺴﻭﻑ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻫﻨﺭﻯ ﺩﻴﻔﻴﺩ ﻨﻭﺭﻭ ﻋـﻥ
ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻗﻑ ﻗﺎﺌﻼ " ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻝﺔ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺒﺄﺴﺭﻉ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻤﺭ ﻴﺩﻋﻭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻴﺄﺱ "
ﻭﺭﻏﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﺭﻋﺔ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﻭﻓﺎﺀ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺃﻤﺭﺍ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴـﺎ ﻭﻤﺤﻤـﻭﺩﹰﺍ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ
ﺍﻝﺴﺭﻋﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻔﻘﺩ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺨﺹ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ٠
ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﺜﺎل ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺩﺓ ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﻴﻀﺎﺡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺭ
ﻴﻌﺩ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎ ﺇﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﹰﺎ ﻴﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻭﻗﺕ ٠
ﻭﻴﺅﺩﻯ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺇﻋﻁﺎﺌﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺎﻓﻰ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺠﻌﻠﻬﺎ ﺘﺅﺩﻯ ﻋﻜﺱ ﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻨﺘﻅﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ٠
ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻓﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﻴﻤﺎﺜل ﺘﻤﺎﻤﹰﺎ ﻤﺎ ﻨﺎﺩﺕ ﺒﻪ ﺍﻝﻔﻠﺴﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺩﻴﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻥ :
ﻭﺘﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻔﻜﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻜﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻨﺼﻔﻴﻥ ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺸﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺩﻗﺔ
١٩
) (٦ﺇﻁﺎﺭ ﻝﻠﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺇﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ
ﺇﻥ ﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻬﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﻜﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺌﻭﻝﻴﻥ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﻴﺒـﺩﻭ ﺒﺴـﻴﻁﹰﺎ
ﻝﻜﻨﻪ ﻓﻰ ﻏﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺓ ﻭﻫﻭ:
ﺍﻝﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻡ
ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭﻴﺔ
ﺃﻨﻤﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ
٢٠
) (٧ﺍﻷﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺍﻝﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ
ﺇﻥ ﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﻴﻌﺩ ﺃﻤﺭﹰﺍ ﻫﺎﻤﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻠﻘﺎﺌﺩ ﻭﻴﻨﺒﻐﻰ ﺃﺨﺫﻩ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻜﺠﺯﺀ ﻻ ﻴﺘﺠـﺯﺃ
ﻤﻥ ﻭﻅﻴﻔﺘﻪ ،ﻭﻝﻬﺫﺍ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺇﺩﺭﺍﻙ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺨﻁﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺌﺔ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺴﺒﻕ ﻭﺍﻥ ﻤﺎﺭﺴﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﻨـﺎﻉ
ﺒﺄﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﻠﻡ ﺃﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ،ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺒﺸﺄﻥ ﻤﻭﻗﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﻓﻰ ﺍﺠﺘﻴﺎﺯ
ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻗﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ٠
ﺍﻝﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ
ﻤﺎﺫﺍ /ﻝﻤﺎﺫﺍ
ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻡ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻌﺘﻘﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ
٢١
- ٣ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﻤﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ - :
ﺇﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﻗﺩﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻷﻫﺩﺍﻓﻬﺎ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻝﺔ ﺇﺘﺒﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ
ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﻴﺤﺘﻡ ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﺠﺫﺭﻯ ﻓﻰ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻝﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺒﺄﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﺍﻝﺫﻯ ﻴﻨﻘﺴﻡ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻋﺩﺓ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ :
ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻴﻁ ﺍﻝﺸﺎﻤل ﺍﻝﺫﻯ ﻴﺘﻨﺎﻭل ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ٠ -
ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﻴﺘﻨﺎﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﻌﻤل ﺒﻬﺎ ٠ -
ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﻴﺘﻨﺎﻭل ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺹ ﺒﺎﻝﻭﺤﺩﺓ ٠ -
ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺌﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﻴﺘﻨﺎﻭل ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ ٠ -
ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﺩﺓ ﺃﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ - :
-ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺨل ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ :ﻭﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴـﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻌـﺎﻝﻡ
ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻰ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﺹ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻴﻁ ﺍﻝﺸﺎﻤل٠
-ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺨل :ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻀﺤﺔ ﺜﻡ ﺘﺤـﺎﻭل
ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼل ﻷﻓﻀل ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻝﺴﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﺃﻯ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻜﺎﺴﺏ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋـﻥ ﻁﺭﻴـﻕ ﺍﻝﻭﻓـﺎﺀ
ﺒﺎﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭﻻ ﻭﻴﺅﺩﻯ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻨﻅﺭﺓ ﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻝﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻴـﺔ ،ﻜﻤـﺎ
ﻴﺩﻓﻊ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺌﺩ ﻝﻸﻤﺎﻡ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﺜﻡ ﺴﺩﻫﺎ ﺒﺄﺴﺭﻉ ﻭﻗﺕ٠
ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻴﻁﺔ
ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻰ
ﻭﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ
ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻴﺎﺕ
ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺹ
ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ
ﺒﺎﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ
ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺹ
ﺒﺎﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ
ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺌﻴﺎﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﻭﺤﺩﺓ
ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ
٢٢
ﻤﺜﺎل
ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﻨﺕ ﺘﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺍﻋﺘﻘﺎﺩﺍ ﺭﺍﺴﺨﹰﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﺽ ﻤﻨﺒﺴﻁﺔ ﻭﻝﻴﺴﺕ ﻜﺭﻭﻴﺔ ،ﺴﻴﺅﺩﻯ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻜـﻭﻴﻥ ﺒﻌـﺽ
ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻡ ﻝﺩﻴﻙ ﻭﺴﺘﺠﺩ ﻨﻔﺴﻙ ﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎ ﻻﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﺴﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﺭﺍﻏﺒﺎ ﻓﻰ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ ،ﺃﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ
ﺍﻋﺘﻘﺎﺩﻙ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺴﺦ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﺽ ﻜﺭﻭﻴﺔ ﺴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻝﺩﻴﻙ ﻗﻴﻤﺎ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺘﻤﺎﻤﺎ ،ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﺴﻴﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺸﻜل
ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺘﻙ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﻨﺸﺭﻫﺎ ٠
ﻭﻓﻰ ﻋﺼﺭ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻤﺴﺄﻝﺔ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺘﻘﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺴﺨﺔ ﺃﻤﺭﹰﺍ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﻴﺎ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﺠﺎﺡ ٠ﻋﻠﻴﻙ ﻜﻘﺎﺌﺩ
ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺘﻘﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺴﺨﺔ ﻝﺩﻴﻙ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ،ﺜﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺘﻘﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺴﺨﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ
ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﻨﺎﻗﻬﺎ ﻭﻜﻴﻑ ﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭل ٠
ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﺃﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ - :
ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﻴﺩ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﺃﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻓﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﻴﻔﻀﻠﻭﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ " ﺇﻤﺎ ٠٠٠ﺃ ﻭ " ﻓﺈﻤﺎ
ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺭ " ﺠﻴﺩﺓ " ﺃﻭ " ﺴﻴﺌﺔ " ﻭﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺤل ﺜﺎﻝﺙ ٠ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﻴﺸﻭﺒﻪ ﻗﺼﻭﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻼﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ
ﺒﺩﺍﺌل ﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻤﺜل - :
٠ More or Less ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ " ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻗل " •
ﺍﻝﺫﻯ ﻴﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺴﻡ ﺨﺭﻴﻁﺔ ﺘﺼﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻗـﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺜﻴـﺭ … Both and ﻼ ﻤﻥ ٠٠ﻭ "
ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ " ﻜ ﹰ •
ﻭﻫﻭ ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﻴﻼﺌﻡ ﺘﻨﺎﻭل ﺍﻝﻘﻀﺎﻴﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻓﻰ ﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺤﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻴﺤﺘـﺎﺝ ﺍﻷﻤـﺭ ﻹﺠـﺭﺍﺀ
ﺘﻌﺩﻴﻼﺕ ﺒﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻹﺼﻼﺡ ﺨﻠل ﻤﺎ ٠
: To … From ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ " ﻤﻥ ٠٠ﺇﻝﻰ " •
ﻭﻫﻭ ﻴﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻋﻤﻴﻕ ﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺃﻯ ﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻭﺘﺤﺎﻭل ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﺎ ﻝـﺩﻴﻙ ﻤـﻥ ﻗـﻴﻡ ﻭﻤﻌﺘﻘـﺩﺍﺕ
ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺭﺍﺤﺎﺕ ٠
ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺘﺼﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺩﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻜل ﺨﺭﻴﻁﺔ ﻓﻜﺭﻴﺔ : •
ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺩﻯ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﺍﻝﺫﻯ ﻴﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻴﻤﺜل ﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻔﻌﻠﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺔ ﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺭﺴﺎﻝﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ
ﺭﺅﻴﺘﻬﺎ ،ﻭﻝﻬﺫﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺨﺭﻴﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻔﻜﺭ ﺘﻌﺩ ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺒﺎ ﻓﻨﻴﹰﺎ ﻝﻠﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻴﺤﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﻻﻨﺠـﺎﺯ ﺍﻝﺘﺤـﺩﻯ
ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺸﺎﺒﻜﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺘﺭﺍﺒﻁﺔ ﻤﻌﻪ ،ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺠﻪ
ﺍﻝﺩﻗﺔ ٠
٢٣
SLIM ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻝﻔﻨﻰ ﻝﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻭﻴﺎﺕ •
ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﻀﺎﻴﺎ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ -: Strategic Leading Issues Matrix ﻫﻰ ﺍﺨﺘﺼﺎﺭ ﻝـ SLIM ﻭﻜﻠﻤﺔ
ﺇﻥ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﻝﺒﺎ ﻻ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺒﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺘﺘﺴﻡ ﺒﺎﻝﺤﻜﻤﺔ ،ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺸـﻜﻠﺔ ﻓـﻰ ﺘﺤﺩﻴـﺩ ﻜﻠﻤـﺔ " ﻤﻬـﻡ "
ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ٠
ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﺭﺒﻌﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﺘﺤﺩﺩ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﻤﻬﻤﺎ ﻭﻫﻰ - :
ﺍﻝﻌﺠﻠﺔ :ﺃﻯ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺤﺭﺝ ﻴﻨﺒﻐﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻌﻪ ﻓﻭﺭﺍ ٠ -
ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﺎﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ :ﻴﻌﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ٠ -
ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺍﻝﻁﻭﻴل :ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﻝﻪ ﺍﺜﺭ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﺫﻭ ﺃﻤﺩ ﻁﻭﻴل ٠ -
ﺍﻝﺴﻬﻭﻝﺔ :ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺇﻨﺠﺎﺯﻩ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﺒﻴﺴﺭ ﻭﺴﻬﻭﻝﺔ ٠ -
ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﻴﺤﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ،ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻸﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺒﺄﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ٠
:ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻯ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻝﻪ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ S.W.O.T Analysis - ١ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ
ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻻﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻭﻓﺭﻩ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻓﺭﺹ ﺃﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ
ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻭﻤﻌﻭﻗﺎﺕ ،ﻤﻊ ﻤﻌﺎﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭ ﻓﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﻨﺘﻅﻤﺔ ﺒﺩﻗﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﻻ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﻋﻥ ﺴﺘﺔ
ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻝﺘﻴﺴﻴﺭ ﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻼﺤﻘﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻌﺩﺍﺩ ﻷﻴﺔ ﺃﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﻁﺎﺭﺌﺔ ٠
" ﻭﻫﻰ ﻜﻠﻤﺔ ﻤﺸﺘﻘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﺘﺔ ﻝﻬـﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﻴﻘـﺔ ﺍﻝﺘـﻰ ﺘﺒـﺭﺯ PPESTT ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ "
، Economic ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻴﺔ Physical ،ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻴﻌـﺔ Political ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺎﺕ :ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴـﻴﺔ
٠ Trade ،ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ Technological ،ﺍﻝﺘﻜﻨﻭﻝﻭﺠﻴﺔ Social ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻰ
- ٢ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ :ﻭﻫﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﺒﺘﻜﺭﻫﺎ " ﻤﻴﺸﻴل ﺒﻭﺭﺘﺭ " ﻝﻠﺘﺤﻠﻴﻕ ﺒﺎﻝﻔﻜﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺒﻌﻴﺩﺓ ﺃﻯ
ﻝﻠﻨﻅﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻝﻭ ﻜﻨﺕ ﺭﺍﻜﺒﹰﺎ ﻁﺎﺌﺭﺓ ﻝﺭﺴﻡ ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺸﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﻜﻠﻴﺔ ،ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺯﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴـﻴﺔ
ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﻭﻝﺩﺕ ﻋﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺤﻘﻘﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻝﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺘﻬﺎ ﺒﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺤﻘﻘﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤـﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺨـﺭﻯ
ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺜﻠﺔ ،ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻴﻌﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻨﺠﺩ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻝﻬﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﻌﺎﻨﺔ ﺒﻬـﺎ ﻋﻨـﺩ
ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺜﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ٠
٢٤
- ٣ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ :ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﻅﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﻓـﻰ ﺤﺎﻝـﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤـﺎﺕ
ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺜﻼ ﻓﻰ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﻷﻭل ﻤﺭﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ٠٠٠ﺍﻝﺦ ﻭﻝﻬﺫﺍ ﻻﺒﺩ
ﻓﻰ ﻤﺜل ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺫ ﺒﻌﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻭﻝﻠﻤﻨﻅﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴـﺔ ﻭﻭﻀـﻊ ﺍﻝﺴـﻭﻕ
ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻰ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﻋل ﺒﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻭﻴﺴﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺭﻴﻘـﻲ ﻓـﻰ
ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ٠
- ٤ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻓﻴﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ :ﻭﻫﻰ ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﻤﺎ ﺴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻴـﻪ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤـل ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴـﺔ
ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻭﻤﺘﺎﺒﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﻨﺘﻅﻡ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻝﻭﻀﻊ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺘﻔﺴـﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﻝﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬـﺔ
ﻭﺘﻔﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﻅﻤﺔ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﻜﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻬﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ٠
ﻭﻴﻭﺼﻰ ﻓﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺼﺩﺩ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﻴﺩ ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﻝﻠﺒﺤﺙ ﻋﻥ ﺃﻯ ﺇﺸﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻝﻭ
ﺒﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﺘﻨﺒﺊ ﺒﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺃﻯ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﻓﻰ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ٠
- ٥ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻋﺩﺓ ﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ ﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل :ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺸﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﺭﺼـﺩ
ﺃﻯ ﺇﺸﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻀﻌﻴﻔﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻏﺎﻝﺒﺎ ﻨﺫﻴﺭﺍ ﺒﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻜﺒﺭﻯ ٠
- ٦ﻤﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻜل ﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻰ ﺒﻌﺩ ﻭﻀﻌﻪ ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻪ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺭﺘﺒـﺔ
ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜل ﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ٠
- ٧ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ٠
- ٨ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﻝﻠﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﻜﻔﻴﻠﺔ ﺒﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻜﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ ٠
- ٩ﺍﻝﺒﺩﺀ ﻓﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ٠
-١٠ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﺸﻜﻴل ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺘﺩﺓ ) ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺠﺎﻋﻴﺔ ( ﺤﺘﻰ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺭﺒﻁ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﻴـﺔ ﻤـﻊ ﺍﻝﺨﻁـﻁ
ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ٠
٢٥
) ( ٩ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭ
ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻋﻼﺠﺎ ﻝﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﻀﻌﻑ ﻓﻰ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻝﺫﻝﻙ
٠ﻓﻬﻭ ﻴﻤﺜل ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻝﺔ ﻝﺘﻔﺎﺩﻯ ،ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺒﺅ ،ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﺘﻴﺢ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺘﻪ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺒﻌـﺽ
ﺍﻝﻤﻜﺎﺴﺏ ﺍﻝﺫﻫﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﻻ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻤﺎﺭﺴﻨﺎ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻤﺤﺩﺩ
ﻼ ﻓﻰ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺍﺤـﺩ ﻝﻨﺸـﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺒـﺅ ﻭﺘﻤﺜـل
ﻼ ﻭﻤﻜﻤ ﹰ
ﻻ ﻴﺘﻴﺢ ﺃﻯ ﺨﻴﺎﺭ ﺁﺨﺭ ٠ﻭﺒﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺒﺩﻴ ﹰ
ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺒﺅﺍﺕ ﻓﻰ ﺤﺩ ﺫﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻝﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻹﻨﺴﺎﻥ ﻝﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﺭﻏﻡ ﻋﺠﺯﻩ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼل ﺇﻝﻰ ﻭﺴﻴﻠﺔ ﺩﻗﻴﻘـﺔ
ﺘﻤﻜﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ٠ﻝﺫﺍ ،ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﺝ ﺇﺯﺍﺀ ﻋﺠﺯﻨﺎ ﻋﻥ ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴـﺭ
ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ ٠
٢٦
ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ ﻜﺄﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﺫﻫﻨﻲ
ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺒﻤﺜﺎﺒﺔ ﺘﻬﻴﺌﺔ ﻷﺫﻫﺎﻨﻨﺎ ﻝﻠﻨﻅﺭ ﻓﻰ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺼـﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺤﻴـﺩﺓ
ﻼ
ﻝﻠﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ٠ﻓﻬﻭ ﻴﺒﺩﺃ ﺒﻭﺼﻑ ﻋﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﻋﻥ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﻭﻴﺤﺘﻤل ﺃﻥ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤـﺔ ﻤﺴـﺘﻘﺒ ﹰ
ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺎﺕ ٠ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ – ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﻴﺤﺘﻤل ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻤﻌﻘـﻭﻝﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺸـﻜل
ﻼ – ﺒﺘﻜﻭﻴﻥ ﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻪ ﻋﻥ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻤـﺔ
ﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﻤﺎ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺤﺩﺙ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒ ﹰ
ﻝﻠﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ٠
ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﻨﺠﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻵﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺠﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺇﺯﺍﺀ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻌﻘﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻤـﺎ ﻴﻤﻜـﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺤـﺩﺙ
ﻼ – ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻰ ﺃﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭ ﻻﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﻨـﺘﺞ ﺒﺼـﻭﺭﺓ
ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒ ﹰ
ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﺭﺼﺔ ﺘﻔﺘﺢ ﺃﺫﻫﺎﻨﻨﺎ ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﺃﺸﻜﺎل ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻝﻠﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ،ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﻁﺭﻕ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ
ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺫﻯ ﻨﻌﻤل ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻝﻪ ٠ﺇﻝﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺘﻀﻊ ﺃﻤﺎﻤﻨﺎ ﺃﻯ ﻗﻴﻭﺩ ﺫﻫﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ،
ﻝﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺸﺠﻊ ﺃﻯ ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﺃﻭ ﻗﻴﺎﺩﺘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﻭﺽ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺓ ﻓﻰ ﻤﺴﺄﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺠﻪ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﻋـﻼﻭﺓ
ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺭﻏﻡ ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴـﺔ ،ﺇﻻ ﺃﻨﻬـﺎ ﻻ ﺘﺤـﺭﻡ
ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻰ ﺒﻴﺌﺘﻪ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻴﻤﻜﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺩﻋﻡ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻓﻪ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺴﺎﻝﻴﺒﻪ ،ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﻴﺒﺫﻝﻬﺎ ﺴﻌﻴﹰﺎ
ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﻴﻑ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﺜل ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﺃﻭ ﺇﺤﻼل ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺘﻜﻨﻭﻝﻭﺠﻲ
ﻤﺤل ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺁﺨﺭ ،ﺇﺫﻥ ﻓﺎﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭ ﻴﻌﺒﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻓﻜﺭﺓ ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﻀﻴﺔ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﻭﺼﻑ ﻝﻅـﺭﻭﻑ ﻗـﺩ
ﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﺨﻼل ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻗﺎﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﺃﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ٠ﺃﻤﺎ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ ﺠﻤﻴﻌﻬﺎ ،ﻤﻬﻤـﺎ ﻜـﺎﻥ
ﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ ،ﻓﺈﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻌﺒﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺸﻲﺀ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻭﻫﻭ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ٠
ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﻐﺭﺽ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ ﻝﻴﺱ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻠﺹ ﻤﻥ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﺒـل –
ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﻜﺱ – ﺘﺄﻜﻴﺩ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻜﺩ ،ﻭﻝﻜﻥ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﻌﻘﻭل ﻭﻤﻨﻁﻘﻰ ﺇﺫ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﺼـﻭﺭ
ﻤﺎ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﻝﻪ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺎﺘﻨﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺠﺎﺀﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺸﻜل ﺍﻝﺫﻯ ﻭﺼﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭ) ﺃ ( ﻭﻝﻴﺱ ﺒﺎﻝﺸﻜل ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺭﺩ
ﺒﺎﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭ) ﺏ ( ٠
ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺴﺌﻠﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻜﺸﻑ ﻝﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺎ ﻨﺭﺍﻩ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻀﺭ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻠﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﺼـﺭﺓ ،ﻗـﺩ
ﻼ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﻌﻜﺱ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘـﺎﻝﻰ ﻓﺈﻨﻨـﺎ
ﻼ ﻭﻤﺎ ﻨﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﻗﻭﺓ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﻀﻌﻑ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒ ﹰ
ﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﻋﻜﺱ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒ ﹰ
ﻼ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻝﺫﻯ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﺠﻪ ﺇﻝﻴﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻭﺒﺄﺸﻜﺎﻝﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺤﺩﺙ ﺘﻐﻴﻴـﺭ
ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﻨﺒﺩﺃ ﻓﻌ ﹰ
ﻼ٠
ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒ ﹰ
٢٧
ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻨﻪ ﻻ ﻴﺠﺏ ﻤﻌﺎﻤﻠﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺤـل ﻝﺤﺎﻝـﺔ ﻋـﺩﻡ
ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻜﺩ ،ﻭﻻ ﻫﻰ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﺩﻝﻴل ﻝﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﻨﻔﻌﻠﻪ ٠ﻓﺎﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻴﻨﺼﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺸﻜل ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒـﻴﻥ ﻫـﺩﻑ
ﻤﻌﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻬﺩﻑ ،ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻴﻬـﺎ ﺜـﻡ
ﻼ ،ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻬﺩﻑ٠
ﺍﻝﺸﻜل ﺍﻝﺫﻯ ﺴﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒ ﹰ
ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ ﻫﻰ ﻓﻰ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﺘﻬﺎ ﻏﻴـﺭ ﺫﻝـﻙ ﺘﻤﺎﻤـﹰﺎ ٠ﻓﻌﻤﻠﻴـﺔ ﺇﻋـﺩﺍﺩ
ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ ﺘﺴﺒﻕ ﺘﻤﺎﻤﹰﺎ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﻗﺭﺍﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﺯﺍﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ ،ﻷﻨﻨﺎ ﻓﻰ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻻ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺈﻋﺩﺍﺩ
ﺨﻁﺔ ﺘﺤﺘﻤل ﻋﺩﻡ ﻨﺠﺎﺤﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻓﺸﻠﻬﺎ ﻷﻨﻨﺎ ﺃﺼﻼ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺘﻭﺼل ﺒﻌﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻫﺩﻑ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﻨﺎﺠﺤﹰﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺤﺩﺜﺕ ﻅـﺭﻭﻑ
ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ ٠ﻓﻔﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ ﻻ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺇﻤﺎﻤﻨﺎ ﻫـﺩﻑ ﻝﻜﻨﻨـﺎ ﻨﻘـﻭﻡ ﺒﻤﺠـﺭﺩ
ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻻﺕ ﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﻨﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺩﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻷﻫـﺩﺍﻑ
ﻴﺤﺘﻤل ﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺃﻭ ﺇﺨﻔﺎﻕ ﺃﻯ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺍﻝﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ٠
ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ ﻴﺨﺘﻠـﻑ ﻋـﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻁـﻴﻁ ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ٠ﻻﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴـﺭ
ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ﻴﺴﻌﻰ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻫﺩﻑ ،ﻴﺘﻡ ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻫﻴﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﻭﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩﻩ ٠ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭ
ﻓﻬﻭ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻰ ،ﻷﻨﻪ ﻴﻬﺩﻑ ﺇﻝـﻰ ﺘﺼـﻭﺭ ﻤﻼﻤـﺢ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌـﺎﺕ
ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﹰﺎ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻀﻭﺀ ﻜل ﺸﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺃﺸﻜﺎل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺘﺸﻜﻴل ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤـﻰ ﻤﻌـﻴﻥ
ﻴﺘﻨﺎﺴﺏ ﻤﻌﻬﺎ ٠ﻭﺘﺒﺩﺃ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻫﺩﻑ ﻴﺤﺘﻤل ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻘﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ –
ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﻗﺩ ﻴﻭﺍﺠﻬﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ،ﻭﺍﻝﺘـﻰ
ﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﺒﺎﺨﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭ ﺍﻝﺫﻯ ﻴﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﻜل ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ٠
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