SIMULASI MONTE CARLO

1= Base

1
Sensitivity

Base

Low

High

Random

0.75

0.5

0.66317

permeability

800

200

1400

1247.814972

0.6631680786
800

2
2= Low

3= High

4= Random

AOF

No.

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2
3
4
5
6
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9
10
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14
15
16
17
18
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20
21
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34
35
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37
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39

531.02
531.0195330226
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40
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84

531.0195330226
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85
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130
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531.0195330226
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175
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531.0195330226
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220
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265
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310
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355
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400
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445
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490
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535
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580
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625
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531.0195330226
531.0195330226

670
671
672
673
674
675
676
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531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226

715
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531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226

760
761
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802
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804

531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226

805
806
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531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226

850
851
852
853
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865
866
867
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890
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894

531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226

895
896
897
898
899
900
901
902
903
904
905
906
907
908
909
910
911
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914
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931
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938
939

531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226

940
941
942
943
944
945
946
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949
950
951
952
953
954
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956
957
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981
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983
984

531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
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531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226

985
986
987
988
989
990
991
992
993
994
995
996
997
998
999
1000

531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226
531.0195330226

AOF for MC
463.962443994
46.0868952799
1299.3178063934
25.1181515218
23.7143207814
393.3564452984
2985.3266973606
13.3552586041
43.9148670444
40.2719041345
8.5030997911
50.6386946834
16.1391312184
221.3152790706
77.4039025147
2639.6064578864
88.7027610136
3.7324615851
461.7170423479
1492.2111294691
35.2632592754
130.8647487233
20.5109519701
920.0824550233
488.9355976436
84.9925713871
22.6217364461
12.4528587586
99.0244396079
63.3743894358
51.4296505182
735.0988317768
48.9766474758
731.404713049
41.0092490034
4.7573628695
5.5085158162
116.541662604
131.6911231454

3
Bin
1.8288364167
178.2257814862
354.6227265557
531.0196716251
707.4166166946
883.8135617641
1060.2105068335
1236.607451903
1413.0043969725
1589.4013420419
1765.7982871114
1942.1952321808
2118.5921772503
2294.9891223198
2471.3860673892
2647.7830124587
2824.1799575281
3000.5769025976
3176.9738476671
3353.3707927365
3529.767737806
3706.1646828755
3882.5616279449
4058.9585730144
4235.3555180838
4411.7524631533
4588.1494082228
4764.5463532922
4940.9432983617
5117.3402434311
5293.7371885006
More

561.6797424353
23.7653530014
349.0903033419
63.5086804002
15.6202885782
77.2937827275
131.0863907976
423.1057859179
164.3950100246
974.8376293229
249.7836719554
7.9270290084
28.611414706
2.9271367466
12.2112405889
11.3719141633
361.1812557936
42.2315566303
19.4390131497
301.5732966044
32.5131769513
93.4128854543
1352.0458075541
523.8827384485
2107.6300518803
14.8709561347
480.2943886323
28.8882282939
52.6545274802
24.7010849518
391.9250718813
20.0924372109
6.2821607185
6.3477241069
27.9799791986
61.509435348
17.2057427358
57.0155097901
164.6246724186
296.7163739186
787.0768822542
67.1184396541
295.2902754481
1015.4943000182
180.6880647946

202.8887543923
100.9449102943
236.8618406163
342.1234515209
267.4963136768
50.8730412163
24.6803220719
52.2504793253
425.3910300816
4222.480747622
10.7096969129
5.9513795487
905.5718278911
3176.5093403015
348.5916207453
871.5636135924
107.568093917
41.3572255665
631.4871073569
1099.7167568213
675.6679942374
64.95517123
91.064083663
117.0114474406
1.8342142266
54.5140025114
17.0155500666
441.8294931101
55.034645085
42.9358627284
44.2425342614
5.8022747383
109.5645958924
15.2798858467
158.2409440374
100.7526724126
36.7692811457
14.2165478455
1384.5863787779
33.5364837071
102.8424343526
33.0280469081
317.7693951008
5.247927561
280.2499164904

9.8763313125
1723.863541819
133.3574971527
684.671744008
1812.7278028281
10.2338046013
3020.038869593
50.2751485071
1235.6744861321
5182.7000918863
403.2840392001
478.1591978534
423.5225240891
1488.130129079
4.1837508947
1928.2904492973
9.3295913285
51.7165914331
85.8241310853
811.6457287756
1517.9035237049
1437.7443712259
1084.765658437
79.9165478401
172.0641260554
9.8926040635
40.5850149725
15.2510433803
254.8104025769
432.2643849253
46.9458207529
12.7667197207
4879.4213573461
36.7651710759
43.6808978232
146.4171819712
201.3432293249
13.6764333959
352.3958298775
6.4577462511
5.4790629393
19.8496528236
632.5431714079
1868.5093581473
5.5356547684

202.8902910837
2493.8196692516
30.863869267
988.2190904846
72.1347614303
7.0541424116
48.0691875366
794.556583617
105.328550698
191.5493964505
8.8783335577
10.9980550354
19.956997967
9.8963371901
3054.99574063
156.4569670155
2.4022808497
60.7965089949
20.7924663647
13.8422013525
21.4057918042
17.469964558
85.4818127455
1222.2108960047
5.4020380427
7.3331282802
122.1575803943
269.9657928896
14.1609143045
387.7040867663
18.785270024
33.9145875184
74.253453618
169.7430345
95.3445558398
112.6110316326
6.2302771269
493.4531802255
1942.9586373993
893.9254420472
242.8267794063
130.9284168531
2897.7595160572
3879.7957266218
8.3156036744

17.7984272846
134.6442073127
23.9169296362
88.2960570417
15.2759640048
273.7929050038
18.210665423
161.3776685708
65.0951659921
33.4380556213
781.4317553488
210.9817183888
83.4748583663
67.3752878835
198.0857231367
1359.3164682931
5.4619020265
50.9515695252
1957.7286118465
193.1426141259
3015.6682428186
40.1801826117
186.3767719385
38.9729659955
586.0389974569
304.0839916359
156.619313887
533.7391222263
442.7520202052
233.2882206884
1719.9116408486
15.3231457518
42.6843507254
168.3740163888
6.6919207586
30.1179883381
537.6702183723
129.4307829128
143.482495613
753.2729013549
79.6081102771
59.6906544742
419.9530220576
81.7380119345
116.7938079841

2.6762943323
733.6854146293
30.094291593
26.8222991871
20.8165281307
7.1068637463
634.7639933799
395.9333733231
129.2873462765
144.035943356
324.0086851537
11.7326346848
96.5093894219
82.9079612059
55.1904888659
129.1578821684
64.7710817462
731.9779820268
603.3718712491
228.6306256615
169.8742910501
682.5879894399
155.56467337
37.3772900999
53.5373681244
731.8908447489
17.6545142834
48.7465881798
2169.3528025179
6.0880831155
1238.9579538398
12.7274270141
268.179236894
12.2576596943
89.1392015522
13.4908261526
6.8393111519
85.6622760488
154.168858752
85.2083441165
31.7787256942
57.8763744511
7.8352022713
517.4386427244
128.9495582338

90.7757429545
55.0786478694
114.1664906519
172.887538719
4.7127830136
12.7128819199
21.9487376453
4.8961120044
72.7974952855
268.3313369495
194.0672829523
3724.2598205361
76.3656535418
34.7637850337
259.5385531653
40.2291269045
300.8036198185
55.2260345282
325.4639625202
441.3373878703
33.5291573509
464.6052987597
53.1186351591
1686.422270553
133.6823862038
9.0779918635
553.7409880816
9.632015732
85.7034575163
227.2693169814
608.5026369077
2.5594004014
312.4879093931
364.168269804
286.6213239098
468.2930254061
624.0736336823
5.5266646267
57.3773327001
795.7373349341
1043.1059721142
52.7265204281
12.2737392159
455.447394743
404.3566635979

8.3876792023
140.5978192278
1661.4933188538
165.2745562729
462.8681011398
139.9267128537
142.1903294612
542.6575734128
106.7027345649
2.4104741377
16.9187151254
2600.5608575478
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56.1081364274
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252.8974906603
176.1339066946
458.8660093065
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470.0480034826
108.6349765888
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55.5196442381
39.3161471241
207.8090197984
28.4986371787
166.5947240984
154.5294070919
218.0207572552
2573.0953071382
75.435739506
39.6463849783
279.4694247723
235.7803873332
1.84522257
2719.9801562165
216.9974601468
38.0231106227
52.0110253958
97.7730627973
10.9156463363
129.44445997
145.2701754438
571.5489632157
188.73641207

124.93174752
153.3452789719
49.1524716022
16.9014013456
11.2472923929
201.3937892898
96.848127151
179.9651611794
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890.0852369625
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126.3773722099
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30.0687913161
3.0524543272
9.1877408788
15.0907667171
88.6386040884
403.9619515024
117.7391506942

15.1159058087
11.3542084353
107.5304744798
36.3956031586
8.7197521377
35.1511264971
32.4683776084
3724.1586231775
1905.9572721816
67.9389993635
2262.9295991024
51.9261044491
135.2690353451
1253.5134055829
23.7981935957
124.1065267237
106.5547311749
5.67296064
25.3669971883
4874.5643934616
16.5341140511
110.6362073617
536.0525332241
21.690736342
135.1654116847
30.9704608617
514.9311571659
19.1553253518
59.2553044603
324.9742623266
121.3974273339
26.0863693327
64.7120576586
59.0650298759
292.2432375947
47.1580660808
1012.0910496103
223.7639706036
8.6431541831
67.05540169
7.083616209
516.8926730712
36.6732177913
74.5183479387
78.3000952307

21.373670616
4.0253436156
6.5090359757
160.1897397366
260.8548626679
51.3034696856
103.5551503848
59.6487638947
131.0394710902
652.6101301541
32.1813548388
20.2916228019
1085.5085925745
428.7365151732
218.471713974
322.8627078833
111.5470713253
206.7741141229
181.669096059
101.6371213856
498.0586761919
169.0667759922
35.3433760938
36.7933930572
22.870430051
201.575859594
793.5412524814
6.9219247673
163.5137958082
1298.4236785733
23.2397237302
119.0793832211
264.2200080937
1722.0928760497
89.0910980473
1573.1763273431
20.9448861758
711.2465382628
55.3070833922
2022.8666970574
3683.5647446197
1788.4738392731
1186.2256071349
18.8836501663
223.2218666707

294.6153079619
145.8599196319
37.3366705844
207.7869333596
188.2203260145
365.6903148416
594.5106753701
47.8330903486
143.7034277921
5.5106956477
347.5365151388
12.9151136681
111.1180030713
253.5959015628
348.2214155559
2.335272667
2802.1520330121
83.2163363954
11.8866561835
42.3463344737
278.4881903713
158.2301956247
31.4601199607
59.6064276637
108.1483224897
13.046831909
4.5463116804
5.5576785078
146.8296312113
615.3339989617
34.4029566899
100.0935606217
155.4713227181
55.7399067709
43.4669537959
1508.267654591
79.1962025962
124.4563599983
20.1675207209
154.4294000477
243.6139574082
333.8974906205
11.5951105839
337.8276238884
132.5595241384

465.0932576822
18.0417751018
1153.9441370515
106.4729510274
78.8898841576
582.2460184067
185.3489231926
1591.011377796
918.9314570733
725.9166190416
241.7021750232
322.4312116287
35.8828019412
32.3599701101
46.2502700344
5.8908985023
143.5371031434
36.0114380823
31.6313728917
69.8204071982
12.3997600619
247.3253934738
299.3887148992
17.2721152613
18.124492539
8.121991256
76.0497363986
8.3390003125
8.5365440682
315.0913627934
226.1348511628
22.140226493
7.5333998735
1456.8329128817
15.1356609377
46.3234437226
1944.6878010764
116.9927041751
122.1145142281
94.0075344934
228.2275428281
69.1799381186
61.1476796122
123.6369620047
763.6631678053

36.8068056781
1662.7426834416
154.984247353
65.7724095402
313.0896234682
183.5540646779
322.4872260926
2836.136340674
44.9739521427
10.6798428918
30.9824134379
2.3173001466
1355.1723438262
127.992995316
211.3234962273
9.8450056903
95.2988768344
193.6092261594
20.1869085426
154.8507279145
155.8507729427
256.7223332112
2067.1745068073
1063.9457649656
73.9487678493
369.7903582002
7.2321371209
509.064776627
51.8180310489
399.6565053369
119.8759639171
1801.5892398592
21.4667453725
90.6930758617
32.1376814045
2.9734833035
253.5896196068
33.4237037271
5470.1341335701
699.3991461525
34.6707986922
248.9578742438
47.597743243
173.3742302403
233.1396164169

104.8226676007
64.4383141185
694.3557929868
17.849332499
109.141452605
276.8314768351
596.4543258745
570.0537850242
368.6990005111
72.0573754682
220.5043305076
67.1840848307
21.6301366475
53.2771842341
122.8123967913
21.5835432788
110.2141263123
1248.8308849788
207.3608225405
216.8552113524
186.415077804
35.6921081047
1291.1121119601
188.4805178304
1085.5164368872
632.7791728633
437.7007646407
271.6629599152
43.5326975596
301.5793654847
100.905904623
8.7117090655
107.7869203115
99.1713117527
100.4388803602
38.0272857372
30.6886266147
139.622991447
73.4176444426
107.8081320685
100.8524275806
1840.9855755131
51.3216235024
199.9518495428
30.4067451948

372.1004744098
177.9798578533
67.650399572
39.8565268199
146.885183553
225.7168098153
684.6684330669
25.0498410953
2028.3590555752
3.043749924
102.0704786626
19.5706035955
394.2772169004
85.0413157056
96.6219491875
647.4658977886
101.6655233752
107.6474416155
430.5979172278
356.9514062459
38.8081200831
1.8288364167
3.7000421502
559.9792182315
477.744749607
510.7130038455
55.3881961123
76.7521253602
123.2888852075
180.5441017198
3.1065959724
440.2592387213
27.9859386454
12.2528133757
284.4909757837
5.8159950583
155.5422813776
4.3747788904
181.6025590205
1378.3259929906
110.5855146788
100.2709997409
510.6144411895
39.775652392
15.0535395675

5.906311597
36.1584239479
134.8002893631
29.5849642238
1922.9286898511
411.2646204383
575.1742798242
802.9788419937
169.0052690048
22.4059495697
6.3548433669
772.6849967814
128.404776527
142.658587095
136.7591696627
493.8643792761
104.074069623
127.6199318817
114.7730199516
233.9133926225
64.7439777302
7.1320058596
487.5369726297
97.1402015708
80.2268714243
309.3341367427
149.8763353752
109.6899994912
34.8580219492
356.0351013463
194.5378255243
333.4450321274
64.6100216985
83.6435212371
878.9291386398
334.8303640256
40.9463320711
16.0600717141
268.4932269344
20.7435491177
1670.9690507395
205.4783722926
211.0562108448
25.7561326154
46.8013325816

59.6947157105
35.4516618684
113.2674150191
6.3925049877
46.8220875083
268.4524737605
186.5400301562
2463.9466989638
140.3744339191
210.818429307
144.075166321
45.2796883706
29.5165724611
1461.7390432007
29.8985196297
5.2868285652
787.8647933952
32.5427918412
174.0469621403
57.2750212789
21.0041288459
51.9668495861
52.2098479456
541.0095388624
167.9803614398
110.1311310294
138.1983592428
303.622361848
142.3508490635
707.2950522418
203.2825251939
38.3704249731
53.0207936071
21.7261667898
43.6290483754
356.3259481137
45.5266980929
21.5189345456
139.4565353781
183.5781227646
796.7893231002
69.2477997926
901.3106461031
98.6084740089
6.0708448455

6.912785982
132.3388082116
1409.6421578699
37.1122026895
90.001422457
13.2577091556
19.1769508722
42.6690412027
9.666654703
342.1402557166
371.9534012136
21.6955877967
88.5923846264
239.4687275369
32.8427243066
99.6921950746
180.0779920191
108.9038800748
315.984545653
43.5482286574
136.4183547603
89.4454761751
176.595902363
332.3930681023
53.8538997103
6.4909636482
2657.5639049026
821.8493276322
24.362769439
194.3529207828
274.3284253264
142.7877842479
254.5171711646
1174.3452041775
7.2648975519
529.8913500951
235.8361700341
1035.3890244501
376.6916892466
20.5786094056
1196.2083836679
46.0455209025
2791.5966325725
28.0818152605
1045.5404841887

38.1166715465
143.1287319165
948.4213959606
348.109388534
34.1478326874
2076.9443213853
338.5761566733
209.7047186637
3681.1972224047
12.4714620933
735.4596382029
17.2185119636
5.0052837573
78.9871873863
196.5234680886
125.793708365
1095.4930780562
485.4709031773
195.298162176
47.4682978579
38.7671097931
813.7099947622
12.7372010478
357.5890393029
322.0606648883
5.5007040723
158.1139114792
112.6562595725
4.3595554249
234.8159691531
8.7418417313
1047.0597641254
52.8213880751
83.4841815284
251.2693500866
42.0926719188
38.454766976
104.3995212066
10.4994955295
102.6108328151
21.6072940521
52.7521981204
637.0265090561
91.9255008364
464.8592313769

26.2535457006
56.2814543579
204.0589177373
131.2064501683
266.4651521689
156.2350074976
87.9704995613
4.9724452771
2668.3799439662
171.4004718592
350.9568481044
275.6001501397
412.5422094911
52.0506681228
5.5506461347
147.8326840578
353.8103439064
65.6574195166
12.3093548977
1567.5047653682
330.4190389635
2.7276449574
3.9559795385
323.1297685062
529.6307906899
301.3567746296
122.647324089
152.7908778018
1325.3378335892
552.6159107387
34.8284131329
11.6644172375
818.826613559
188.2588501646
13.3468357071
2577.3954519949
17.2283817007
93.1129090508
331.7383973034
3.9407133305
38.263948118
507.692306157
106.2819454472
16.5256815598
38.3662956554

184.3565770634
219.1692497316
177.0233266458
13.9604431671
326.4545633003
81.0313079976
33.4913995193
38.5158289939
84.7852167376
341.0190455355
19.2963862331
11.276256034
2748.0608912646
771.0816484246
59.1498624017
25.8958602135

Frequency
1
615
146
65
38
28
15
13
14
9
8
8
8
2
2
5
6
3
4
0
0
2
3
0
1
0
0
0
2
0
1
1

Cumulative %
0.10%
61.60%
76.20%
82.70%
86.50%
89.30%
90.80%
92.10%
93.50%
94.40%
95.20%
96.00%
96.80%
97.00%
97.20%
97.70%
98.30%
98.60%
99.00%
99.00%
99.00%
99.20%
99.50%
99.50%
99.60%
99.60%
99.60%
99.60%
99.80%
99.80%
99.90%
100.00%

Histo
700

600

500

400

300
Frequency
200

100

Bin

AOF Hasil Simulasi Monte Carlo

P10
P50
P90

Histogram
1.2

0.8

0.6
Frequency
0.4

0.2

Bin

Cumulative %

AOF (mmscfd)
C
n
30.22 0.414234 0.676444
144.95 0.414234 0.771152
531.02 0.414234 0.849586

30.2244422084
144.9541625788
531.0196716251