Introduction ‘theres always an easy sltion to every human problem edt, plausible and ‘wrong. Wt Menken was ist formed, ts surface condtons have Nuctuaed. Past changes are ‘etched on the landscape have infuenced the evolution ofall fe forms. land ate a subtext of our economic and soil history. Current climate ‘changes are a central patt of the debate about the consequences of human attics om the globl environment, while the future couse of| the climate may well exert powerful constants on economic develop ‘ment especialy in developing counties So for many physical and social sciences, climate change san underying factor that needs tobe appre ‘ined in understanding how there disciplines tin tothe wher picture. “The aimot this book sto provdea balanced view to hep thereaderto give ‘the sight weight tothe impact of climate change on their chosen disc lines. This wil involve assessing how the climate can vary of its own 'sccord and then adding nthe question of how human activities may lead to unter change “The is thing tose straight sat there ls nothing simple about how the climate changes: While the central objective ofthe book isto make ‘theesence ofthe subject aces, itso help to you. the rede. to duck the Issues, Alto0 often peopl try to reduce the debate to what they ses the ‘sential features, In 0 doing ether uniting or dbeatly, they run the risk of gueezing the evidence down too mucho, fom the outset it py to appreciate thatthe behaviour of he Earth's climate governed by 4 ‘wide range of factors all of which are intetiked in an intricate web of| ysl processes. This means identifying the fictors that matter mst nd ‘when they come into play. To do tis we have to define the meaning of climate change, becaie various factors atsume different significance ‘degendiog on the dmcscales under consideration.1 12 Weather and climate Ieisnot ens toform a balanced view ofthe importance imate change ‘our lives We are bombarded with continual steam of damatic nforna tion about how the climate is becoming more extreme and threatening. ‘This information is drawn from meteorological authorities around the ‘word, While the process of translation isnot aways accurate, sets scene for interpreting the importance of climate change in out world. So, howare we to Bande claims about che recordreaking nature of droughts, heatwaves and hurricane seasons? “te st stage in establishing how the climate vases iso dicriminate beeween weatherandclimate,Atthe simplest level weather i what weet climate i wht we expect. So, the weather what is happening 10 the atmosphere at any ven tie, whereas climate what the stasis tell us should occur at any gven time ofthe year. Although climatic statistics Concentrate on averages ul up over many year, they ao givean acute Picture ofthe incidence of extreme evens whichar par of the norma for 'mypotof the world Hee, the emphasis wil be princpuly onthe average Conditions but it sn he nature of statistics ha ving proper weight rare entree events edu to handle ‘Wherever possible the analysis wil be in terms of welhstablshed lengohy statistical series, These are more key to provide reasonable ev dence of change inthe incidence of extremes. Where the changing fe fquengy of extreme weather events exes a major influence on the tnterpretation af changes in che climate, however there may be some burring of the distinction between wether a climate i considering specifi event. The essential point in considering climate change, We are concerned about the statics of te weither phenomena that provide idence of longer erm changes follows from the definition of weather and climate, that changes in the ‘mate constitute sisi eteorological conditions stnga few years or longer: These changes may involve a single parameter, suchas temperature rafal, but usually accompany moe genera shifts in weather patterns ‘hat might result in a shift, say. colder. wetter louder and windier conditions. Due to the connection with global weather pumerns these ‘changes can result in compensating shifts in diferent pas ofthe wold. More often they ar, however, prt fan overall warming orcoling ofthe soba climate, bu in tenns of considering the implications of changes in ‘he climate, ts the regional variations tit provide the most teresting ‘material as long as they are properly et inthe context of global change. “This lead nto the question af defining the difference between climate ‘varity and climate change. Given that we wl be considering a contin {uum of variations actors the timescale fom a few years 03 bilion years, there is bund to bea degree of arial in thi sintion an 0 {important to spell out leary how the two categories wil be treat in this ‘ook Figure a presents typical set of meteorological oberations this ‘examples series of annual average temperatures, butit could equally well ‘be rainfall r some other meteorological variable for which regular mes surements have Been made over the years. This series shows that oer the eviod ofthe measurements the average valve remains efectvey constant (the series sid to be stata) but Hactuates considerably from obser ‘on to observation. This uctuation abou the mean 3 messi of cima ‘uray. nFgures 1.1, canddthe same example of climatic variability combined with examples of ciate chang. The combination of variabil and 2 uniform cooling trend is shown in Figure 1.15, wheres in cure {the variability i combined with a periodic change Sn the underying ‘climate and in curved the variability combined with a sudden drop in ‘temperature, which represents during the period of observation, a once and for all change in the cima. ‘The implication ofthe forms of change shown in Figure 1.1 i that the level of variability remains constant while the climate changes. This need rot be theese Figure 1.2 presenta the implicatlons of variability changing 4s well. Curve (a) presents the combiition of the amplitude of variability ‘oubling over the period of observation, while the climate remain con ‘stant Although this no kel cen, the possibility ofthe varaity Increasing as, say, the ciate cool (Fg. 120) much more likly Similarly, the marked increase in variability fllowing a sudden drop in temperature fig. 12c 62 possible consequence of climate change, The ‘examples of climate varibiltyand imate change presente on Figures 1.1 and 1.2 wil be explored in this book, and so we will tur tothe concepts in these diagrams fom time tote For mos ofthese variations, a basi interpretation that climate var sbilty is being a mater of shreterm Mutations, whe climate changes concerned about longerterm shifts There are two reasons why this ‘agqeeedh nnn nthe chemadayttiylegtinlnen Het, Gees fcon momen“eft ig 1.1 the dfiniton of cate varity and ena range sos easy (@)cimate arty witout any dry ange in te ante, 0) the Combrton a hesame chnate aby witha hex dine temperate 4 ¢ oer the ps fhe sen atns (he combeatan fate vary with 2 evo aiaton in tempest of and (the conbnaton ciate vray taitha sodden do inept fring thecal wth he roe tempt terse remaig estan belo ad ale thes. Cth ads spo by C1 enale a ompatin ote mde nave easly (00 Bua, 200,911) fig. 12 the camntion ofngeasing mate varity and te hanger be reser by onsdeing oe of temp osetia sa tase mga 14 ih show (cate vail bling ever the pride cd wou 2 nds chage the cate, the conbaaton of the Sane neasig| Chins vara witha ner deine temperate of «Cover the paid ol he ‘omens, he combina of ne evel of cma varity bore aden ‘hop empath hen ester he do de wah he aveage tenptatre ean cosa belo ond fie he sf Ech ad paced by “C1 ele a compation tbe made me esl, at he example of perad lina cane Fie 11 (curve gist epodced ae, 2 the nate ot ‘argo vabily nuh cumstances My ta be mae camped, (rom deepen eh eddwhy the climate should not actuate randomly on Jonge timescales, and recognising this form of variability 3 major challenge in tssing ou the tay occur abruptly and there fo dou tha interme ofthe changes we ‘will consider in his book this form ofchange has been an important factor inthe Earths climatic history. Detecting actions inthe climate of the type deseribed in Figures 1. and 12 involves measuring a range of pst vanations of meteorological Parameters around the word vera wide variety of timescales, This poses, major challenges that will ea central theme in this Book For now. the important point, that when we talk about mate variability and climate comes from a comprehensive range of sources and this vals realy in ‘quality So, some pst changes stand outwith staring dary. asin he case ‘ofthe brad features ofthe atic age, whens thes such asthe tet of solar activity on more recent changes. are shadowy and surrounded by ‘whlch make the wbject so hand opin down and so fascinating. Connections, timescales and uncertainties rom the outset the goen rues don versie wring ote cat In th tis an immensely complicated subject. ar ofthe excitement of slacovering the implications of climate change is, however, the fact it ‘avolves 9 many diferent processes linked together i an intricte web In partcala i requires us toundertand the nature fear ra i Hox 1.1) Te fat hata perturbation inane part the system ay effets elsewhere that beat no simple relation to the orginal sims provides new insights into how the world around us functions. I does require, however a dieplined approach to the physical processes at work otherwise the analysis able to be partial and misteading The challenge of discovering which processes matter mos involves not ‘only knowing how given perturbation may dur the climate but aloof how diferent timescales affect the analysis of change. rom the impercept iby slow movement ofthe continents tothe daytoday Dickering of the Sun, every aspect of the forces driving the Earth’ climate is varying Deciding which of thee changes matters mos, and when, reuires cra ton of how they occur and bow they ae linked to one another. So white {80x 1.1 The nature of feedback Understanding and quantijing various fedback procs is a central halen of explaining and predicting climate change. These processes arse because, when one climatic variable changes, alters andthe in ‘way that insluences the intl variable tha rigged the chang. I his ‘cular response eas toa reinforcement of the impact ofthe orignal ‘simais then the whole system may move dramatically in given direc ‘on. Tis runaway response is known at pte fb and is best ih strated by the highpich whistle tht 2 microphone system can produce ‘npicks up some ots own signal nthe cat ofthe climate an example of this behaviour might be the fle of 2 warming leading ta redction in ‘snow cover in winter. This, in turn, could lead to more sunlight Being borbed at the surface and yet more warming. and 008 ad on. ‘The revere situation is when the circular reponse tends to damp down te impacto heii stimulus and produce steady state This Isknown as negate elbuk An example of histype of matic response is where a warming leas to more water vapour i the atmorphere, Which produces more clouds. These reflect more sunlight Into space thereby reducing the amount of heating ofthe surface and s0 tends to cancel out the inital waning. Depending on the complexity of the ‘ystem involved. these rypes of chain reaction can lead toa variety of | ‘sponses to any perturbtions including sudden switches between di ferent sates, and reversals where a postive stimulus ean produce 3 negative reaction by the system 25a whole. Throughout this book the appreciation of feedback mechanisms wil play an essential part in "understanding how the ciate responds to change _scologica records over milions of years more immediate consequences (eg volcanism) can have a sudden and dramatic impact on interannual ‘limatie variability. Similarly. Auctuatons inthe ouput ofthe Sun may ‘occur on every timescale: When it comes to ooking int the fature, longer term vanations are bound tobe the subject of speculation and, a auch ate of questionable value. Inthe case of predictions a few days to several decades ahead, however, the potential benefits of accurate Forcans ate ‘immense. No wonder this is one ofthe hottest topics in climate change “This cifering perspective depending on whether the analysis ofthe past is relevant o forecasting the future, wil nluence how climate change is (saosin i Sas Sinaia Ss Weurebs cntasiene ier os einer erminerowing information about past climates on geologic timescales toast inthe search for hydrocarbon deposi. For instance, curent research inchudes computer models of pst czan ciculaton that can be used to ‘dentfy region of high marine producivity inthe geologic past. where lange amounts of organic mater may have ben nk down, bu changing ‘knowledge abut the climate o these timescales will have no infuence 08 the industry's view on how the climate nthe ture wil affects plans, Byway of contast as production extends further offshore, the oiindus tay needs to know whether changes in. sy. dhe incidence of hurricanes in the Gulf Mesco oF deep depressions i the North Antic will makes Aleeporater operations more hazardous Such forecasts ae ently depen ‘ent on both relable measurements of how the climate hs been changing lnsecent decades anon whether tis pssibeto predict future trends This sets mote demaning criteria on what we need to know and whether sufficient to make nef forecasts This apples to all areas of climate ‘ariabiity and climate change and so the improved understanding of the longer climatic processes that have shaped the word around ws, while «ental tothe making of more efficient use ofmatural resources, canbe dealt ‘wth in general terms, The more mmdit sues how the imate could ‘Change in the near fre and ow i will shape aur plans for weather sensitive investnens requires move delle analysis. The big picture ‘One further aspect of ciate change mus not be overlooked. This is he ‘act ha everything in Che system is connected to everyting ese andso we Inve tobe exceedingly carfulin ying o explain how thing fis togeber Incitably i wil be necessary took at varios aspects ofthe climate in foation. nso doing. however, we must no lose sighr ofthe big pietue “Tne connections and feedback processes describe in the preceding secon link every proces inc the system as a whole Adopting this wider perspec Ie helps to achieve some balance, Indeed if you think tere i simple ‘ough about the subject. So there no pint in beating about the bus the climate is fearfully complex and while the objective of his book sto ‘make climate change as accessible as possible it sof no benefit othe ‘reader to understate the complet ofthe connections “This means that any analysis depends on how changes in every aspect of “These ange thom the everchanging motions ofthe atmosphere, trough the variation inthe nd surface, inching vegetation type, sil moisture Jevelsand snow cove, to seasurface temperatures the extent of pack ela poli fejons, pls the stately motions ofthe deepacean current, which ‘ay take over a thousand yeas to complete a sngle cycle, bu which ate also be capable suddenly switching within afew year to entirely dif ent patterns. Ad to this thatthe prevailing climate, combined with the ‘stout ofthe continents controls the amount of nutrients washed ects the oceans pradctviy, and carbon Aiosde levels in the atmosphere and you begin to get an idea of the com- plexity of imate change. Some ofthese phenome ae prcable and some are not. or instance he feature ofthe Earth's notion, which govern the dil (ara) and annual cys inthe weather, canbe predicted with great precision, Other sraviatonal ets suchas the lngeterm ces inthe lana hes, o the Dsl effects othe other planets in the solar sjstemon both the Earth and ‘the Sun, canbe calculated wth considerable precision, ut theirin sence on anges nthe Earthsea parameters, which ler the amount of Sunlight fang at erent ates throughout the yer But as we wl se ater. this isthe most plausible explanation ofthe periodic nature ofthe ie ages that have eng mach ofthe planet drng mich ofthe as milion year ‘By comparison, many ofthe predictions of how the climate wl espond ‘changes in various patsofthe systema frlss reliable. Indeed many of ‘Me expose the chaotic nature ofthe weather andthe climae(ace Box 3.3} So many aspects of imate change may wel prov tobe wholly unpredit abl, but in studying how the varios components af the elma interact behaviour, Ths might then lead tothe making of useful forecasts ofthe probability of certain outcomes occurring as well as providing valuable insights into how the sytem works. "he consequence of the complet is that fom time to time we mast coer the worlds of mathematic, statistics and physi, To many people studying other disciplines, which maybe influence by climate change this ‘may seem an unwelcome prospect butt isa necessary condition to under standing whether the issues raised by the claims ofclimatlogss are of| real consequence to your chosen discipline and so there has to be some ‘mathematics and physics inthis bok. My objective wil be, however, t0 ‘ee the amount down to 3 minimum and tod my best to make a wer‘Armes with these sights my aim wil be fo seer 3 judicious course show how many aspects of our lve are influenced by past and present, ‘Aycrustions, This wil then set the scene for considering he urgent ses of ‘he potential impact of human activities on the climate inthe tre and what we can do about i The fs step in ths proces 10 consider the Earth's energy blance. URTHER READING 1c (1990) 992,194 (1989, 201) and 2007 In terms of oben ‘et They are. however, Doth eavetllybalnced in tel ana and ‘ahuuive in thelr preseaation ofthe competing angen. Ax sah, {ey ate not an eay read and may appear evasive, not confusing unt ouhavegica rp ofthe asc ssbes So ey ae of greats vale one you ‘ave tour bearing leary eased, flows that he grates vale 2a Radiation and the Earth’s energy balance ‘And od sad Lt there be ight and there wastght. Genesis 11 ‘Although a wide range of fctors governs the Earth's climate the essential. Ariving process the supply of energy from the Sun and what happens to ‘his energy when it hits the Earth To understand how this works, we 4) the properties of volar ration and also how the Earth reraates (by ow the are’ atmosphere and surfice absorb ofl solar energy and also reradate energy to space and (c) how all these parameters change throughout the year and on longer timescales The conskderation of variations ove timescales longer than a year as to ‘ake accountof the fac tht many oF he most important chngee may occ over wielyifirng pods fe ot ar yor tose of miBionsof year). The fering ine horizns cannot be spelled in advance ands0 we may find ourselves moving back and forth over this wide range as we progress through the book The only way to deal with these shifts in time scale to identify leary what we are talking about a we 0 along, Solar and terrestrial radiation ‘Arte simplest level the radiative balance ofthe Earth canbe defined as follows: overtime the amount of solr radiation absorbed by the amor sphere and the surface beneath itis equal tthe amount of heat radiation ‘ited by the Earth to space, Global warming dos, however have the sflect of retaining some solar energy inthe ciate system. Ii eckoned ‘at over the se 50 year the annual storage rate hss bee between 0 and 1.0 wattsm *atiny amount compared withthe fuxes shown in Figure 27 \Jocinlesindesin eye lecaslateetediodedeeitaets tagsedeeasecmeacte uteeek