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FACULTEIT ECONOMIE EN
Internally Organised Masters Thesis
BEDRIJFSWETENSCHAPPEN
Financial vulnerability
of nonprofit
organizations
The health care sector in Belgium
Simon GEVCEN
Masters Thesis Submitted for the Degree of
Master in International Business Economics and Management
Supervisor: Sandra VERBRUGGEN
Academic Year: 2014-2015
Defended in June 2015
FACULTY ECONOMICS
AND BUSINESS
CAMPUS BRUSSELS
MASTERS THESIS
Financial vulnerability of nonprofit organizations
The health care sector in Belgium
Simon GEVCEN
Abstract
Whether an organization is for-profit or nonprofit, its financial vulnerability is a concern for its
management. The common denominator between both types of organizations is the harm that a
financial distress can have on their ability to provide constant services. However, nonprofits are not
for-profit, which implies that the models describing the financial vulnerability of the for-profit sector
cannot be literally transposed to nonprofit organizations. Indeed, new models have been designed
for the nonprofit sector. Therefore, this article intends to summarize all the models assessing the
financial vulnerability of the nonprofit sector.
Throughout the past ten years, scholars pointed out the weaknesses of the Belgian health care
nonprofit organizations, generally described as financially vulnerable. However, the literature backing
this statement is weak. Inexistent, perhaps. In fact, no statistical research nor any empirical study
supporting this statement has been conducted yet. Therefore, this article describes the first empirical
investigation on the nonprofit sector in Belgium in order to assess the variables affecting its financial
vulnerability in the period 2010-2013. Relying on longitudinal data about human health
organizations, residential care organizations, and social work organizations, this study determines
the significance of continuous and categorical predictors as determinants of the financial vulnerability
of nonprofit organizations in this health care segment of the Belgian nonprofit sector.
Acknowledgments: I express my faithful thanks to Pr. Sandra Verbruggen for her support and
guidance throughout the achievement of this Masters thesis.
Keywords: financial, vulnerability, performance, exposure, distress, ratios, nonprofits, nonprofit
organizations, health care, Belgium.
Introduction
Financial vulnerability is the potential exposure of an organization facing financial distress, which is
a common situation for many nonprofit organizations (Wang & Liu, 2010, p. 463). According to
Tuckman & Chang (1991), the nonprofit sector has been in the shadows for a very long time (p.
459). Although the academic community started to address the topic only recently, researchers have
given increased attention to the topic of vulnerability and organizational demise (Hager, 2001, p.
376) in the past fifteen years.
We can identify four reasons explaining the lack of research on this topic, which can then be seen as
a priori limitations that bounded the previous investigations. First, a generally accepted definition of
a nonprofit organization is lacking. Second, the economic weight of the nonprofit sector remains
marginal although it is getting more importance over time at an increasing rate (Banque Nationale
de Belgique, 2004, p. 9). Third, researches do not always have all necessary data because little
information is available to inform the general public (Tuckman & Chang, 1991, p. 449). Fourth, the
literature did not end up on a one-fit-all methodology regarding the study of nonprofit organizations.
However, the lack of research does not mean a lack of interest. In his article, Trussel (2002) noted
that whether or not a nonprofit organization is susceptible to financial problems is a concern of all
stakeholders of the organization, because financial problems might not allow an organization to
continue to meet its objectives and provide services (p. 17). Since some organizations close as a
result of financial distress (Tevel, Katz, & Brock, 2014, p. 4), this concern is of interest. In fact, our
study shall attract the attention of many types of agents including managers during the process of
strategic planning, government bodies setting policies, auditors conducting review studies, donors in
the decision-process for their contribution, and potential creditors in determining credit-worthiness
of charitable organizations (Greenlee & Trussel, 2000, p. 209).
Thus, the research question to which we intend to answer at the end of this research is the following:
What are the variables affecting the financial vulnerability of the Belgian health care nonprofit
organizations between 2010 and 2013? Throughout the process of this study, the core research
objective is to determine to what extend certain parameters of an NPO1 can determine its financial
vulnerability2, since the latter can harm any NPO in its ability to deliver its social objective (Arshad,
Bakar, Razali, & Omar, 2013, p. 408). In their pioneer study, Tuckman & Chang (1991) stressed
three reasons to investigate on this field.
First, the nonprofit sector is growing rapidly over time (Tuckman & Chang, p. 446). As it continues
to grow, the demand for accounting services by these organizations will increase (Trussel, Greenlee,
& Brady, 2002, p. 66). In fact, NPOs remain key players in the Belgian economic landscape (Vander
Donckt & Rigo, 2013, p. 11) with respect to their contribution of more than 5% to the wealth of the
country. Given the importance of this sector, it is of interest to study its financial vulnerability since
the Belgian nonprofit sector is not only one of the largest in Europe but is also a product of the []
welfare state model (Mertens, et al., 1999, p. 43).
Second, the impacts of the nonprofit sector on employment is substantial as it affects a large number
of people (Tuckman & Chang, 1991, p. 446). Its contribution to the countrys employment is about
11.9% in 2010 and reflects the labor-intensive nature of production (Vander Donckt & Rigo, 2013,
p. 11). This support improved during the period 2010-2013 with an increasing number of people
employed in that sector, as shown in Appendix 1. Given the importance of this sector, it is of interest
to study its financial vulnerability since it has considerable effects both on employment [] and on
the institutions that train people for employment (Tuckman & Chang, 1991, p. 446).
Third, the revenue sources of the nonprofit sector is a key factor to analyze the ability of a nonprofit
organization to respond to financial pressures (Tuckman & Chang, 1991, p. 446). NPOs generate
most of their revenue from sales of goods and services as well as from current transfers (Vander
Donckt & Rigo, 2013, p. 12). However, public funding is the major source of revenue for NPOs. In
fact, more than half of the public funding going to the nonprofit sector goes to the healthcare sector
(Vander Donckt & Rigo, 2013, p. 12). Table 1 shows the percentage distribution of the public funding
to the nonprofit sectors in Belgium by sector of activity in 2010.
1
2
11,5
1,5
28,5
1,7
54,2
3
4
A satellite account is a set of structured and coherent data, regarding a particular field, and
established in coherence with the central framework of the national accounts of the country (Banque
Nationale de Belgique, 2010, p. 3) to offer statistical data and macroeconomic information (Mare,
2010b). Indeed, this handbook recommends statistical standards and guidelines for the
development of data on non-profit institutions (United Nations, 2003, p. iii).
Following the recommendation of Eurostat (Mare, 2010c), Belgium has been one of the first
countries (Acx, Rigo, & Vander Donckt, 2011, p. 5) to publish in early 2004 his satellite account. For
the case of Belgium, this satellite account is managed by the Institute of National Accounts 5, which
is the body in charge of the annual release of data regarding the Belgian nonprofit sector (Banque
Nationale de Belgique, 2012, p. 3). Actually, in order to be considered in Belgium as an institution
without profit purpose, entities must comply with all the following criteria:
The process of gathering all institutions without profit purpose does not require considering all of
them as a homogeneous group. (Banque Nationale de Belgique, 2004, p. 12). The set of these
institutions are divided in two modes: institutional segmentation, and sectorial segmentation.
First, regarding the institutional segmentation shown in Table 2, the Belgian legislator recognizes
many types of organizations. However, our research focuses on certain specific types of
organizations. In fact, the most important category is the association without profit purpose, which
consists of at least three persons, either nationals or foreigners, with the purpose of realizing a nonlucrative objective (Portail Belgium, 2012). It is entitled to obtain the legal personality if it releases
its articles in the Belgian Official Journal 6 and registers its activities in the Crossroads Bank for
Enterprises7.
Table 2. Institutional segmentation of NPOs
A. Without legal personality
- De facto association8 refers to any gathering of people, which does not require any legal
recognition by the legislator.
B. With legal personality (27 June 1921 Law, modified by 2 May 2002 Law)
- Public utility institution9 refers to any association known both as foundations and as
professional unions (Banque Nationale de Belgique, 2004, p. 14).
- Association without profit purpose10 refers to any association that is not devoted to
industrial or commercial operations and which does not seek to obtain material
gains for its members (Mertens & Lefbvre, 2001, p. 8).
- International association without profit purpose11 refers to any association that fits with the
requirements of the association without profit purpose, but that is furthermore
pursuing a nonprofit purpose of international utility.
Source : (Mertens & Lefbvre, 2001, p. 8; Mare, et al., 2005, p. 11)
In French, Institut des comptes nationaux. In Dutch, Instituut voor de Nationale Rekeningen.
In French, Moniteur belge. In Dutch, Belgisch staatsblad.
7
In French, Banque-carrefour des entreprises. In Dutch, Kruispuntbank van Ondernemingen.
8
In French, Association de fait. In Dutch, Feitelijke vereniging.
9
In French, Etablissement dutilit publique. In Dutch, Instelling van openbaar.
10
In French, Association Sans But Lucratif (ASBL). In Dutch, Vereniging Zonder Winstoogmerk (VZW).
11
In French, Association internationale. In Dutch, Internationale associatie.
6
Indeed, the legislation regulates the boundaries of this non-lucrative objective. It prevents it from
pursuing an objective of enrichment. Hence, the organization is not mandated to retain any minimum
capital, nor allowed to redistribute benefits made from the organization activities to its members,
neither allowed to aim to make profit although fees membership can be charged (Service Public
Fdral Justice, 2013). Since it operates as a nonprofit entity, it is subject only to the income tax
on legal entities (Business Belgium, 2010). However, the application of the corporation tax is
immediate if subsequent investigations reveal a profit seek of the organization.
Second, regarding the activity sector segmentation shown in Table 3, its classification rely on the
European Nomenclature for Economic Activities12 13 that is a reference framework for the production
and release of statistical data regarding economic activities in Europe. Furthermore, we can also look
at the value added of each sector to the overall sector of IWPP.
Table 3. Distribution of the IWPP added value, by sector of activity (2010)
11
13
Services
Education
Human health
Social action
33
36
Literature review
This literature review intends to give an overview of the most important models developed both in
the for-profit perspective and in the nonprofit perspective. The former has seen the emergence of
two models: Altman (1968) model, and Ohlson (1980) model. The latter has seen the rise of three
models: Program Expenditure Model with two extensions, Net Assets Model, and Net Earnings Model.
The for-profit sector is of interest because all models rely on accounting measures. In fact, most of
them focus on one factor: corporate bankruptcy. Actually, they mainly use profitability, cash flow,
and leverage ratios as predictor variables (Keating, Fischer, Gordon, & Greenlee, 2005, p. 4). In the
1960s, this area of research became popular. At that time, Altman (1968)s model appeared to be
the most influential study in the field of predicting corporate failure (Bukhori, Othman, Aris, &
Omar, 2013, p. 375) based on the event of bankruptcy (Ohlson, 1980, p. 109), which relies on a
Z-Score based on five variables that had the highest predictive power (Keating, Fischer, Gordon, &
Greenlee, 2005, p. 4). Actually, five financial ratios determine the Z-Score. In practice, the lower the
Z-Score, the higher the probability of bankruptcy. Nowadays, academics and practitioners still widely
use the Z-Score as its accuracy reached 95% (Karamzadeh, 2013, p. 2008).
12
13
The next generation of studies on corporate bankruptcy prediction include Santomero & Vinso (1977),
Ohlson (1980) and Zmijewski (1984). However, Ohlson (1980) is the most widely used and cited.
His model is made for the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy among industrial firms (Tevel, Katz,
& Brock, 2014, p. 6). Actually, his one-year prediction model relies on an O-Score, determined by
the combination of results to these six factors. His study concluded that it could indicate at what
point in time a companys financial statements were released to the public, and one could therefore
check whether the company entered bankruptcy prior to, or after the date of release of the financials
(Pongsatat, Ramage, & Lawrence, 2004, p. 3). Since his model could accurately predict corporate
failures, his model was used since then in thousands of studies, with or without variations, including
in the context of nonprofit organizations (Tevel, Katz, & Brock, 2014, p. 6). Consequentely, with
regard to the accuracy of these two models, their popularity are reflected in the frequent use of the
two models as empirical proxies for bankruptcy risk in accounting research (Keating, Fischer,
Gordon, & Greenlee, 2005, p. 5).
Before the nineties, most of the studies focused on the for-profit perspective. However, the lack of
research regarding the financial vulnerability of the nonprofit sector was enormous. For the purpose
of this study, we do not take into account the for-profit models as basis since, despite some authors
assurances, those models came out to be not suitable for the analysis of nonprofit organizations
(Tevel, Katz, & Brock, 2014, p. 11).
Administrative cost ratio. An NPO with relatively high administrative costs may have fewer difficulties
to face a financial distress compared to an NPO with relatively low administrative costs. If a shock
occurs, the former can cut more discretionary costs of its administration than the letter. Therefore,
a higher level of administrative costs reduce the probability of decreasing an NPOs service programs,
hence avoiding its classification as financially vulnerable.
Their methodology relied on a random selection of NPOs usng the U.S. Internal Revenue Service 14.
The four ratios were applied to a 1983 national sample of tax returns filed by 4,730 charitable
nonprofits (Tuckman & Chang, 1991, p. 445). Only organizations that filed this annual Form 990
are included in the study. They divided the results obtained into quintiles, and two categories of NPOs
appeared. On the one hand, an NPO is severally-at-risk if it falls in the lowest quintile for all four
criteria. On the other hand, an NPO is at-risk if it falls in the bottom quintile with respect to any one
of the four criteria (Tuckman & Chang, 1991, p. 451).
Table 4. Financial Vulnerability Ratios by Tuckman & Chang (1991)
Ratios
Formula
Sign
Revenue source j 2
(
)
Total revenues
Total equity
Total revenue
Administrative expenses
Total expenses
First Extension
Based on the groundwork of Tuckman & Chang (1991), Greenlee & Trussel (2000) were the first to
use the previously described four accounting ratios as well as methodologies common in the forprofit sector (Trussel, 2002, p. 18) to design a new model able to predict the financial vulnerability
of nonprofit organizations (Wang & Liu, 2010, p. 464). The core of this new model is to establish
measures predicting future financial health rather than identification of past problems (Cordery &
Baskerville, 2010, p. 2).
14
U.S. government agency responsible for tax collection and tax law enforcement (Internal Revenue Service, 2015).
Since the viewpoint changed from measuring actual distress to predicting future distress, a change
of definition became necessary. As noted earlier, Tuckman & Chang (1991) linked the financial
vulnerability to the reduction in program services after a financial shock. However, Greenlee & Trussel
(2000) ignores the immediacy of [this] definition (Thomas & Trafford, 2013, p. 634) and modified
it so that any NPO is financially vulnerable if it saw an overall decline in program expenses during a
three-year period (Keating, Fischer, Gordon, & Greenlee, 2005, p. 6) between 1986 and1995.
From program services to program expenses, two reasons explain the abandon of Tuckman & Chang
(1991)s definition. First, the accounting system does not fully capture program services (Greenlee
& Trussel, 2000, p. 202). Second, it is difficult to determine which charities experienced a financial
shock (Greenlee & Trussel, 2000, p. 202). To simplify the model of Greenlee & Trussel (2000), a
financially vulnerable NPO is one that shows a diminution in its program expenditures for instance in
1993, 1994, and 1995. They measure then the accounting ratios in 1992 to evaluate whether the
model could predict the NPOs actual financial situation in 1995. Therefore, the study uses the four
ratios to determine an NPOs probability to become financially vulnerable.
Table 5. Finanvial Vulnerability Model by Greenlee & Trussel (2000)
Financial Vulnerability Probability
1
(1+ )
Nevertheless, the model assumes any NPO as financially vulnerable if it faces a program expenditures
reduction on a period of three years, but this precludes any determination of financial vulnerability
during the first four years of an organizations existence (Greenlee & Trussel, 2000, p. 207).
Moreover, Greenlee & Trussel (2000) noted that further developments would experiment new
definitions of financial vulnerability, increase the time scale of the model, and increase the sample
population. A revision of the model published by Trussel (2002) covers these further developments.
1.2.
Second Extension
Meanwhile Greenlee & Trussel (2000) designed their first development of Tuckman & Chang (1991)
model, Hager (2000) pointed the difference between the failure of arts NPOs and of the non-arts
NPOs. Indeed, arts NPOs were less likely to survive the study period (p. 4) compared to any other
types of NPOs. Actually, he applied the Tuckman & Chang (1991) model to this arts sector. Therefore,
he relied on the IRS database containing all registered arts organizations to obtain a sample of 7,226
organizations, subdivided in 7 subsectors: Visual arts organizations, Arts museums, Performing arts
centers and schools, Dance organizations, Theatre organizations, Instrumental and choral music, and
Generic performing arts (Hager, 2001, p. 383). Those organizations filed the annual Form 990 tax
return from the IRS for a period of three tax years as all variables are constructed from
organizational finances reported in 1990, 1991, and 1992 (Hager, 2001, p. 380).
Hager (2001) noted that although they showed promise, the financial vulnerability measures derived
by Tuckman and Chang (1991) could not be used across the board to predict failure in performing
arts [] organizations (Cordery & Baskerville, 2010, p. 4). In fact, to various degrees, the ratios
can explain the demise or longevity of a nonprofit organization (Hodge & Piccolo, 2011, p. 523).
He concluded that the four ratios of Tuckman & Chang (1991) are not applicable to all NPOs since
the applicability of these measures may vary across nonprofit sub-groups (McIndoe & Sullivan,
2014, p. 3). Furthermore, the conclusions from Hager (2001) are limited to only arts NPOs. Since
the focus of his study was too narrow, his findings do not appear to have been applied to other
specific areas of the non-profit sector (Cordery & Baskerville, 2010, p. 4). Therefore, although his
study was important to the development of the literature on NPOs financial vulnerability, we do not
rely on his findings in our research.
10
Sector. An NPOs sector links financial distress to financial capacities. Many macroeconomic factors,
such as inflation or recession, affect NPOs differently. These differences lead the NPO to be more
exposed or less exposed to financial distress, according to the sector it belongs. Trussel (2002)
expanded the model to 10 subsector variables: Arts, culture, and humanities; Education;
Environment and animals; Health; Human services; International, foreign affairs; Public, societal
benefit; Religion-related; Mutual-membership benefit; and Unknown (Trussel, 2002, p. 23).
Table 6. Financial Vulnerability Ratios by Trussel (2002)
Ratios
Formula
Sign
2
Revenue j
(
)
Total revenues
Total liabilities
Total assets
Size (SIZE)
Sector (SECTOR)
N/A
1
(1+ )
11
Measure
Expected
sign
Greenlee &
Trussel (2000)
Hager
(2001)
Sign
Sign
Sig
Sign
Sig
Trussel &
Greenlee
(2004)
Trussel
(2002)
Sig
Sign
Sig
Sign
EQUITY
CONCEN
ADMIN
Omitted
MARGIN
Keating et
al. (2005)
Sig
= 0.05)
12
Hager (2001)
the one that a decrease in its net assets over three consecutive
years.
the one that had more than a 20 percent decrease in its net
assets over three consecutive years.
the one that had more than a 50 percent decrease in its net
assets over three consecutive years.
Methods
Since this study aims at describing the financial strength of the Belgian healthcare nonprofit sector,
our research question is stated as follow: What are the variables affecting the financial vulnerability
of the Belgian health care nonprofit organizations between 2010 and 2013? In consequence, we
performed a binominal logistic regression to determine these variables. We considered this type of
regression as the most appropriate tool for our analysis, first, because it leads to a binary variable
(financially vulnerable or not) and, second, because the independent predictor variables are
continuous.
In order to describe the financial vulnerability of this sector, we need a database to study it. Since
most of the models presented in our literature review were designed for the nonprofit sector within
the United States, these models used data from the IRS Statistics of Income database. In our case,
our study investigates the nonprofit sector of Belgium. Therefore, we rely on the Bel-First15 database
from the Bureau van Dijk (Bel-first, 2015), which is one of the most comprehensive available
database as it contains information about 1.2 million companies in Belgium (Vlerick Library, 2015).
Furthermore, this database also relies on the NACE-Bel nomenclature mentioned in our introduction.
Consequently, we built a sample of health care NPOs. In fact, we restrained the number of companies
from the database by selecting all active organizations with a legal status recognized as
Associations with the codes 86, 87, and 88. More specifically, Appendix 3 presents the exhaustive
listing of all types of activities included in these three health care NACE-Bel codes. In fact, these
Associations cover all types of institutions with legal personality as shown in Table 2. The total
number of nonprofit falling into these three categories amounts to 706 NPOs. However, although the
database is broad, all necessary information were not always available for all the studied years, that
is, 2010-2013. Therefore, 11 nonprofits had then to be removed from the sample since they had too
many missing values and the program could not impute them. As a result, the number of
observations fell to exactly 695 NPOs, as shown in Table 10.
15
13
1.754.614
100
400
206
11
695
Source: (Bel-first, 2015)
We adapted the methodology of Trussel et al. (2002) to our study. We used a definition of a financially
vulnerable NPO as the one showing a negative percentage change in net assets. Therefore, each
health care NPO is classified as financially vulnerable or not (Cordery, Sim, & Baskerville, 2013, p.
191). The dependent variable of the binominal logistic regression is financial vulnerability, with two
categories: it is not financially vulnerable (0) and it is financially vulnerable (1) as shown in Table
11. The independent variables are the predictors as defined in Table 6 : MARGIN, EQUITY, CONCEN,
SIZE, SECTOR87 (a binomial variable with values of 1 if the sector if 87, and 0 otherwise), and
SECTOR88 (a binomial variable with values of 1 if the sector is 88, and 0 otherwise).
Table 11. Financial Vulnerability Equations
Financially Vulnerable
4 1
1
>0
<0
As shown in Table 12, we state four hypothesis. The first hypothesis is expected to occur based on
Trussel & Greenlee (2000). In fact, an NPO with relatively low margins is more likely to be financially
vulnerable compared to an NPO with relatively higher margins. On the one hand, high margins lead
the NPO to able to operate without reducing its program services. On the other hand, if margins are
low, we expect the Belgian health care NPOs to reduce their program offerings. Consequently, the
NPO is likely to be classified as financially vulnerable. Therefore, we expect the independent variable
MARGIN to have a negative influence on the financial vulnerability of NPOs.
The second hypothesis is expected to occur based on Trussel (2002). In fact, an NPO with relatively
more debt is more likely to be financially vulnerable compared to an NPO with relatively less debt.
On the one hand, relatively low amounts of debt lead the NPO to be able to finance its program
services. On the other hand, if the ratio of liabilities over assets is high, we expect the Belgian health
care NPOs to not be able to finance their program services. Consequently, the NPO is likely to be
classified as financially vulnerable. Therefore, we expect the independent variable EQUITY to have a
significant positive influence on the financial vulnerability of NPOs.
The third hypothesis is expected to occur based on Cordery & Baskerville (2010) and Thomas &
Traford (2013). In fact, an NPO with relatively diverse sources of revenues is less likely to be
financially vulnerable compared to an NPO with relatively narrow sources of revenues. On the one
hand, if the portfolio of funding is diverse, it will lead to the stability of the NPO. On the other hand,
if the concentration ratio is high, we expect the Belgian health care NPOs to not be able to easily find
alternative sources of finance if one of its donors cease to fund it. Consequently, the NPO is likely to
be classified as financially vulnerable. Therefore, we expect the independent variable CONCEN to
have a significant positive influence on the financial vulnerability of NPOs.
14
The fourth hypothesis is expected to occur based on Trussel et al. (2002). In fact, a relatively bigger
NPO is less likely to be financially vulnerable compared to a relatively smaller NPO. On the one hand,
if the size of the organization is large, it will lead to the NPO to overcome more easily any financial
distress. On the other hand, if the size is smaller, we expect the Belgian health care NPOs to not
easily overcome any financial distress. Consequently, the NPO is likely to be classified as financially
vulnerable. Therefore, we expect the independent variable SIZE to have a significant negative
influence on the financial vulnerability of NPOs.
The fifth hypothesis is expected to occur. In fact, we decomposed the variable SECTOR by creating
the dummy variables SECTOR87 and SECTOR88, with the sector 86 as reference. In fact, these
dummy variables indicate an expected shift in the dependent variable due to the influence of
categories, i.e. due to the belonging of the NPO to specific subsectors of activities in the health care
nomenclature. Therefore, we expect the independent variable SECTOR to have a significant influence
on the financial vulnerability of NPOs.
Table 12. Financial Vulnerability Hypothesis
H1
H2
H3
The revenue concentration index has a significant positive influence on financial vulnerability.
H4
H5
We performed two preliminary actions on this sample. First, we imputed the missing values in the
data set, which is a practice of 'filling in' missing data with plausible values (PennState Department
of Statistics, 2015). In our case, we performed this practice via the estimation of a regression model
that is predicting values based on other variables. It actually use the variables that we already have
in order to substitute the predicted value to be an actual data. In fact, this is the best technique for
the amount (about 15%) of missing data that we have, and their type (missing not-at-random).
Second, we aggregated the independent variables MARGIN, EQUITY, CONCEN and SIZE for the period
2010-2013 by averaging them, in order to use the resulting variables as predictors (Greenlee &
Trussel, 2000, p. 4; Cordery & Baskerville, 2010, p. 9; Tevel, Katz, & Brock, 2014, p. 8; Hager, 2001,
pp. 380, 384).
Moreover, we checked two assumptions. First, we assumed that there is no significant
multicollinearity16 (i.e. the independent variables are not strongly correlated with one another). To
verify this assumption, we run a linear regression analysis with the same variables as for the
binominal logistic regression. As shown in Table 13, the multicollinearity is not a threat to our model
under the following condition: for all the variables, the variance inflation factor17 must be lower than
3. Indeed, it is effectively the case. In consequence, there is no significant multicollinearity in our
model. Therefore, the first assumption is verified. Second, we assumed that there are no important
outliers in the data series. As shown in Table 14, the note a states there are no outliers in the data
set. Therefore, the second assumption is verified as well.
16
If we have important multicollinearity in our model, the variances of the coefficients increase very much, making those
coefficients unstable and unreliable and reduces the prediction power of the model. The VIFs show us whether the coefficients
variances are inflated due to high multicollinearity. The lower this indicator the better. A value of 1 means that the corresponding
predictor is not at all correlated with the others (that is a rather theoretical situation). A value between 1 and 5 shows a low
correlation. A value between 5 and 10 shows a moderate correlation. A value over 10 indicates a strong correlation.
17
Abbreviated as VIF (VIFs for the plural).
15
Table 15 shows a summary statistics with the relevant information retrieved from the dataset. As
expected, we obtained differences between the 224 financially vulnerable NPOs and the 471 not
financially vulnerable NPOs. First, mean MARGIN is lower for FV NPOs, which implies that financially
vulnerable NPOs have a lower surplus margin (-0.27%) than those that are not financially vulnerable
(1.7%). Second, mean EQUITY is lower for not financially vulnerable NPOs, which implies that
financially vulnerable NPOs have more debt (45.55%) than those that are not financially vulnerable
(41.3%). Third, mean CONCEN is lower for financially vulnerable NPOs, which implies that financially
vulnerable NPOs have lower concentration of revenues (73%) than not financially vulnerable
(74.9%). Fourth, mean SIZE is higher for not financially vulnerable NPOs, which implies that
financially vulnerable NPOs are smaller in average (15.283) than those that are not financially
vulnerable (15.649). Furthermore, Appendixes 4, 5, and 6 show these statistics per sector of activity,
i.e. sectors 86, 87 and 88.
Table 15. Summary Statistics Financially Vulnerable and Not Financially Vulnerable
Status
Number
FV
224
NFV
471
Variable
Mean
Standard Deviation
MARGIN
EQUITY
CONCEN
SIZE
MARGIN
EQUITY
CONCEN
SIZE
-0.027
0.455
0.730
15.283*
0.017
0.413
0.749
15.649*
0.503
0.274
0.158
1.479
0.092
0.257
0.152
1.648
* The difference between FV and NFV mean values is significant at = 0.05, by using t-statistic test.
In addition, Table 16 provides descriptive statistics, namely t-statistic and Pearson correlations. First,
the one-sample or univariate t test compares the mean of a sample with a given value, often zero
(IDRE, 2015). Second, only two Pearson correlation coefficients are statistically significant from this
matrix. On the one hand, the correlation between MARGIN and SIZE is -0.175 and it is statistically
significant. On the other hand, the correlation between CONCEN and SIZE is -0.109 and it is
statistically significant as well.
Table 16. Descriptive Statistics for the Independent Variables
Univariate test
t-statistic
Pearson correlations
EQUITY
CONCEN
SIZE
MARGIN
EQUITY
CONCEN
SIZE
-.832
24.864*
69.123*
154.799*
-.011
-.041
-.175*
.096
-.080
-.109*
16
Results
Before interpreting the binominal logistic regression, a two-fold analysis of the independent variables
is necessary. First, SPSS generates the omnibus tests of model coefficients, analyzing whether the
independent variables are good predictors, overall, for the outcome variable of financial vulnerability.
In our case, as shown in Table 17, the chi-square test value with 6 degrees of freedom is 19.242,
p=0.004. As we added all explanatory variables in one block, there is only one-step and all three
values are the same. Since the significance value (or p value) is lower than 0.05, our independent
variables satisfactorily explain the dependent variable. Second, SPSS generates the HosmerLemeshow test, analyzing how bad the independent variables predict the dependent variable. For
our model to be valid, this test should not be significant. In our case, as shown in Table 18, the
dependent variables adequately predict the outcome variable since p=0.067 > 0.05.
Subsequently, SPSS generates the pseudo-R values with both the Cox-Snell and Nagelkerke
indicators, telling us what percentage of the variation in the dependent variable is explained by the
independent variables. On the one hand, the Cox-Snell statistics can take any value between 0
inclusive and 1 exclusive. On the other hand, the Nagelkerke indicator is a corrected Cox-Snell
indicator, normalized so that it can take the value 1. For this reason, this last indicator is often the
only one to be reported and interpreted. In our case, as shown in Table 19, the independent variables
explain about 3.8% of the variation in the outcome variable, as assessed by the Nagelkerke statistics.
Table 17. Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
With regard to these preliminary analyses, the binomial logistic regression generates the coefficients
table as shown in Table 20. It presents the output resulting from including all of the candidate
predictor variables in the equation (Stat Tutorials, 2015) to show the individual impact of each
predictor on the financial vulnerability of NPOs. Actually, we will report three elements for each
variable. First, we describe the regression coefficient B18 used to determine which of the independent
variables have the biggest effect on the dependent variable. Second, we describe the results of the
Wald test19 used to know whether the coefficient is statistically significant20, i.e. whether the
corresponding variable has a good predicting power. Third, we describe the antilogarithm21 of the
coefficient Exp(B) used to know the chance that an NPO is financially vulnerable, depending on the
corresponding predictor. Our results are presented in two parts. We will present first the coefficients
for the continuous predictors (MARGIN, EQUITY, CONCEN, and SIZE), and second the coefficients for
the categorical predictors (SECTOR87 and SECTOR88).
18
The regression coefficient B represents the relationship between a given explanatory variable and the outcome variable. It is
precisely how much the outcome variable changes after a change of one unit in the explanatory variable (ReStore, 2015).
19
The Wald test is a way of testing the significance of particular explanatory variables in a statistical model (Crichton, 2001).
20
For the statistically significant coefficients, we are going to report the 95% confidence interval.
21
If x is the logarithm of y, then y is the antilogarithm of x.
17
values for the continuous predictors are considered the lower values: NPOs with higher values are
compared with those with lower values in terms of odds to become financially vulnerable. Table 21
presents, for each continuous predictor, the odds of becoming financially vulnerable as well as the
probabilities to be and to not be financially vulnerable, for the cases with high values of the predictors.
For the cases with the low values, the probabilities will be reversed.
Table 21. Odds of financial vulnerability for continuous predictors
Variable
Probability of being
financially vulnerable
MARGIN
EQUITY
CONCEN
SIZE
0.379
1.748
0.277
0.852
0.275
0.636
0.217
0.460
0.725
0.364
0.783
0.540
Four consequences are retrieved from this analysis. First, the odds that an NPO with big surplus
margin is financially vulnerable are about 62% (1-0.379) lower than the same odds for an NPO with
small surplus margin or 2.6 times lower (1/0.379). Thus, the probability that an NPO with big
surplus margin is financially vulnerable is 27.5%, and the probability that an NPO with big surplus
margin is not financially vulnerable is 72.5%. For an NPO with small surplus margin, these
probabilities are reversed.
18
Second, the odds that an NPO with high equity is financially vulnerable are about 75% (1-1.748)
higher than the same odds for an NPO with low equity or 1.7 times higher. Thus, the probability
that an NPO with high equity is financially vulnerable is 63.6%, and the probability that an NPO with
high equity is not financially vulnerable is 36.4%. For an NPO with low equity, these probabilities are
reversed.
Third, the odds that an NPO with high revenue concentration index is financially vulnerable are about
72% (1-0.277) lower than the same odds for an NPO with low revenue concentration index or 3.6
times lower (1/0.277). Thus, the probability that an NPO with high revenue concentration index is
financially vulnerable is 21.7%, and the probability that an NPO with high revenue concentration
index is not financially vulnerable is 78.3%. For an NPO with low revenue concentration index, these
probabilities are reversed.
Fourth, the odds that an NPO with big size is financially vulnerable are about 15% (1-0.852) lower
than the odds for an NPO with small size or 1.2 times lower (1/0.852). Therefore, the chance of
financial vulnerability decreases by 15% when the NPO size increases. Thus, the probability that an
NPO with big size is financially vulnerable is 46%, and the probability that an NPO with big size is
not financially vulnerable is 54%. For an NPO with small size, these probabilities are reversed.
Probability of being
financially vulnerable
SECTOR 87
SECTOR 88
0.822
0.700
0.451
0.412
0.549
0.588
Two consequences are retrieved from this analysis. First, the odds that an NPO belonging to sector
87 is financially vulnerable are about 18% lower than the same odds for an NPO belonging to sector
86 (reference) (1-0.822) or 1.2 times lower (1/0.822). Thus, the probability that an NPO belonging
to sector 87 is financially vulnerable is 45.1%, and the probability that an NPO with big surplus
margin is not financially vulnerable is 54.9%. Second, the odds that an NPO belonging to sector 88
is financially vulnerable are about 30% lower than the same odds for an NPO belonging to sector 86
(reference) (1-0.700) or 1.4 times lower (1/0.700). Thus, the probability that an NPO belonging to
sector 88 is financially vulnerable is 41.2%, and the probability that an NPO belonging to sector 88
is not financially vulnerable is 58.8%.
19
Out of the NPOS that are not financially vulnerable, 98.1% were correctly classified, while out of
those that are financially vulnerable, 4% were correctly classified. Overall, 67.8% of the NPOs were
correctly classified (471 out of 695) as shown in Table 23.
Table 23. Classification table
Discussions
With regard to these results, we will discuss five elements. We will firstly discuss whether our results
demonstrate our hypotheses. We will secondly explain how our results give an answer to our research
question. We will thirdly develop some arguments to convince the reader that our study has changed
the fields knowledge. We will fourthly deal with the international component of our study. We will
finally raise some recommendations for further studies.
First, our study show diverse results regarding the hypothesis. The first hypothesis stating a
significant influence of surplus margin on financial vulnerability is not verified. This finding contradicts
both Trussel and Greenlee (2001) and Trussel (2002) concluding that MARGIN significantly influence
financial vulnerability. The second hypothesis stating a significant influence of equity on financial
vulnerability is partly verified. Although a predictor that has a low p-value is likely to be a meaningful
addition to [the] model because changes in the predictor's value are related to changes in the
response variable (Frost, 2013) and despite very low p-value generated by the Wald test, the
regression coefficient mitigates the verification of this hypothesis. This finding is relatively in line
both with Trussel (2001) concluding that EQUITY significantly influence financial vulnerability, and
Trussel (2002) concluding that EQUITY does not significantly influence financial vulnerability.
The third hypothesis stating a significant influence of revenue concentration index on financial
vulnerability is verified. This finding contradicts Trussel and Greenlee (2001) concluding that CONCEN
does not significantly influence financial vulnerability, and is in line with Trussel (2002) concluding
that CONCEN significantly influence financial vulnerability. The fourth hypothesis stating a significant
influence of organization size on financial vulnerability is verified. This finding is in line with Trussel
and Greenlee (2001) concluding that SIZE significantly influence financial vulnerability, and
contradicts Trussel (2002) concluding that SIZE does not significantly influence financial
vulnerability. The fifth hypothesis stating a significant influence of sector on financial vulnerability is
not verified. This contradicts Trussel and Greenlee (2001) concluding that SECTOR significantly
influence financial vulnerability.
Second, our research question examined What are the variables affecting the financial vulnerability
of the Belgian health care nonprofit organizations between 2010 and 2013? The predictors generally
have a substantial influence on financial vulnerability, as assessed by the omnibus tests and the
Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The predictors with the most important contributions are size, revenue
concentration index and equity, in this order. For these variables, the regression coefficients are
statistically significant (or borderline significant). The predictor surplus margin has a meaningful
effect on the outcome variable, though the regression coefficient is not statistically significant. As for
the variable sector, it does not seem to have an important effect on financial vulnerability.
20
Third, the contribution of our study entail a two-fold change in the fields knowledge. On the one
hand, this study has changed the fields knowledge as it intended to be the very first empirical
groundwork for the literature on the Belgian nonprofit sector. In fact, most experts generally
discussed the financial vulnerability of the nonprofit sector in Belgium whereas no statistical research
has ever been conducted yet. On the other hand, this study has changed the fields knowledge also
because we adapted Trussel (2002) in an entirely other environment than the United States, for
which it has been designed. Indeed, it is particularly relevant since most US-developed models have
been found to exhibit different levels of explanatory power in different segments (Cordery, Sim, &
Baskerville, 2013, p. 190) of the nonprofit sector.
Fourth, and consequently to our third discussion, we can reveal the potential international component
of our study by its geographical context. Although our study focused on a particular segment of the
Belgian nonprofit sector, it may be relevant to compare our results in a broader geographical context,
weather it is to European results, to O.E.C.D. results, or merely to international results. In fact, such
comparisons allow us to evaluate the strength of the nonprofit sectors across countries. Furthermore,
our study can be generalized and applied to other context than the Belgian one since any national
nonprofit sector can be the focus the analysis model that we applied.
Finally, two recommendations can be raised for further studies. On the one hand, a first limitation of
our study has regard with the relatively small database. Although the database contained a wide
number of associations, our study did not cover all of them first because of the limited availability of
data, and second because there were missing values. In fact, we have used the data imputation as
a technique to overcome the missing data but this can also be considered as a weakness of our
study. However, a pairwise deletion technique could not be conceivable because the amount and the
type of missing data, as explained in our methodology, since the number of valid cases in our sample
would decrease substantially. Therefore, further studies should collect comprehensive data over a
wider timeframe than only four years. On the other hand, a second limitation of our study has regard
with the research focus, restrained to only on one segment of the nonprofit sector, i.e. the health
care segment. Therefore, further researches should expand it to include all the nonprofit subsectors.
Conclusion
Throughout the development of this Masters thesis, the core idea behind our investigation was to
lay the empirical foundation of the literature on the Belgian nonprofit sector. In fact, this lack of
empirical research has been a constant motive for pursuing our study. As explained in the
introduction, the health care subsector accounts for more than half of the public funding allocated to
the nonprofit sector and represents about a third of the value added of the overall nonprofit sector
(Vander Donckt & Rigo, 2013, pp. 21-22). Despite the predominance of this sector, a thorough
research regarding the financial vulnerability of health care organizations was necessary to
understand the impact of certain parameters on their ability to overcome any financial distress.
Financial distress can occur at any time for any organization, whether for-profit or nonprofit. Margins
can fall, donators can withdraw their contributions, debt can increase, and the size of the organization
can be impacted as well. Therefore, an organizations management should be concerned by its
vulnerability. This study, overall, concludes that among the five parameters defined by Trussel et al.
(2002), only three of them organizational size, revenue concentration, and debt ratio are
significant parameters that affected the financial vulnerability of Belgian health care nonprofit
organizations between 2010 and 2013. This may raise some questions for further researches. Since
these three variables are significant, how did these parameters vary over the 2008-2009 financial
crisis period? To what extend the crisis has impacted those organizations in their financial
vulnerability? How did they overcome this shock? Could their situation before the crisis be able to
tackle such distress? New doors are open for further investigations.
21
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24
Appendixes
Appendix 1. Employment in IWPP (2004-2010)
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Number of IWPP
16,913
17,015
17,400
17,624
17,794
18,630
18,731
Wage employment
(absolute value)
368,300
382,900
401,500
416.500
431,700
430,600
446,500
Wage employment
(as % of the
10.5%
10.8%
11.1%
11.3%
11.5%
11.5%
11.9%
countrys wage
employment)
Source : (Mare, Gijselinckx, Loose, Rijpens, & Franchois, 2008, p. 13; Mare, 2010a; Banque
Nationale de Belgique, 2010, p. 7; Banque Nationale de Belgique, 2012, p. 8; Vander Donckt &
Rigo, 2013, p. 17)
25
Q86.1
Hospital activities
Q86.1.0
Hospital activities
Q86.2
Q86.2.1
Q86.2.2
Q86.2.3
Q86.9
Q86.9.0
Q87
Q87.1
Q87.1.0
Q87.2
Residential care activities for mental retardation, mental health and substance abuse
Q87.2.0
Residential care activities for mental retardation, mental health and substance abuse
Q87.3
Q87.3.0
Q87.9
Q87.9.0
Q88
Q88.1
Social work activities without accommodation for the elderly and disabled
Q88.1.0
Social work activities without accommodation for the elderly and disabled
Q88.9
Q88.9.1 -
Q88.9.9 -
26
27