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Geomatematika 4

Cross Validasi

Hafidz Noor Fikri


hafidz.noor.fikri@gmail.com

The$64question:doesgeostatisticswork?
Thisexercisehasbeendesignedtohighlighttheeconomicimpactofestimationerrors.
8

Data:

1
1

Thegradesof64blocksofsize1x1

2
3
3
4
5
2
6
7
1
8
1

The$64question:doesgeostatisticswork?
8

Data:

1
1

Thegradesof64blocksofsize1x1
wereavailableinanarea8x8

2
3
3
4
5
2
6
7
1
8
1

The$64question:doesgeostatisticswork?
8

Data:

1
1

Thegradesof64blocksofsize1x1
wereavailableinanarea8x8

2
3
3

Shows16 ofthesegrades

4
5
2
6
7
1
8
1

The$64question:doesgeostatisticswork?
8

Data:

735

45

125

1
1

167

Thegradesof64blocksofsize1x1
wereavailableinanarea8x8

450

337

95

245

Shows16 ofthesegrades
Eachfromthetopleftcornerofa
blockofsize2x2

124

430

230

460

2
6

75

20

32

20

1
8
1

The$64question:doesgeostatisticswork?
8

Data:

735

45

125

1
1

167

Thegradesof64blocksofsize1x1
wereavailableinanarea8x8

450

337

95

245

Shows16 ofthesegrades
Eachfromthetopleftcornerofa
blockofsize2x2
Thevaluesoftheother48samples
willbeusedlaterforcomparison
purposes

124

430

230

460

2
6

75

20

32

20

1
8
1

The$64question:doesgeostatisticswork?
8

PolygonalEstimation

1
1

735

45

125

167
2
3

450

337

95

245
4
5

124

430

230

460
6
7

75

20

32

20
8

The$64question:doesgeostatisticswork?

Coba anda lakukan Estimasi


menurut perasaansaudara??

735

45

125

1
1

167

4
2

450

337

95

245

3
4

124

430

230

460

2
6

75

20

32

20

1
8
1

The$64question:doesgeostatisticswork?
8

KrigingEstimation

1
1

442

190

142

204
2
3

354

276

212

279
4
5

189

226

216

271
6
7

99

81

88

125
8

The$64question:doesgeostatisticswork?
SelectiveMining
Supposethatinthiscasetheeconomiccutoff is300.
8

1
1

735

45

125

Sotheexpectedprofitis:
735+450+337+430+460 (5x300)=912

167
2
3

450

337

95

245
4
5

124

430

230

460
6
7

75

20

32

20
8

EstimationPolygonal

The$64question:doesgeostatisticswork?
SelectiveMining
Supposethatinthiscasetheeconomiccutoffis300.
8

1
1

505

143

88

207
2
3

270

328

171

Sotheexpectedprofitis(polygonal):
735+450+337+430+460 (5x300)=912

411

Sotheactualprofitwouldbe:
505+270+328+220+263 (1500) = 86

4
5
2

102

220

154

263
6
7

101

54

44

155
8

TrueValue

The$64question:doesgeostatisticswork?
SelectiveMining
TrueValue
Actualprofit
wouldbe:86
8

505

143

88

207

1
4

442

190

142

204

270

328

171

411

3
3

354

276

212

279

102

220

154

263

189

226

216

271

101

44

54

155

99

81

88

125

8
2

1
1
1

735

45

125

167
2
3

450

337

95

245
4
5

124

430

230

460
6
7

75

20

32

20
8

Expectedprofit
(Polygonal):912

Cutoffis300.
Expectedprofit
(Kriging):???

The$64question:doesgeostatisticswork?
SelectiveMining
TrueValue
Actualprofit
wouldbe:86
8

505

143

88

207

1
4

442

190

142

204

270

328

171

411

3
3

354

276

212

279

102

220

154

263

189

226

216

271

101

44

54

155

99

81

88

125

8
2

1
1
1

735

45

125

167
2
3

450

337

95

245
4
5

124

430

230

460
6
7

75

20

32

20
8

Cutoffis300.
Expectedprofit
(Kriging):
442+ 354+ 276+ 226+
271 (5x300)= 69

Expectedprofit
(Polygonal):912

Estimasi ANDA???

The$64question:doesgeostatisticswork?
SelectiveMining

Studi Kasus

SEAM BATUBARA

Jenis blok:
blok regular rectangular grid,
unreguler single hole
Jumlah Blok yang dihitung:
720 buah

4.00

3.50

KetebalanBatubara EstimasiIDS(m)

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50
2.00 (m)
KetebalanBatubara

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.00

KetebalanBatubara EstimasiOrdinaryKriging(m)

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50
2.00
KetebalanBatubara(m)

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Tugas 3
Plot Cross Validasi
Blok

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