WouldNewBordersMeanLess

ConflictintheMiddleEast?
The region is living with the combustible legacy of states
artificially carved from the remains of the Ottoman Empire.

ILLUSTRATION: LUCI GUTIERREZ

By
YAROSLAV TROFIMOV
April 10, 2015 11:46 a.m. ET

255 COMMENTS

ShortlyaftertheendofWorldWarI,theFrenchandBritishprimeministerstooka
breakfromthehardbusinessofredrawingthemapofEuropetodiscusstheeasier
matterofwherefrontierswouldruninthenewlyconqueredMiddleEast.

Twoyearsearlier,in1916,thetwoallieshadagreedontheirrespectivezonesof
influenceinasecretpactknownastheSykesPicotagreementfordivvyingupthe
region.ButnowtheOttomanEmpirelaydefeated,andtheUnitedKingdom,having
donemostofthefightingagainsttheTurks,feltthatithadearnedajuicierreward.
Tellmewhatyouwant,FrancesGeorgesClemenceausaidtoBritainsDavid
LloydGeorgeastheystrolledintheFrenchembassyinLondon.
IwantMosul,theBritishprimeministerreplied.
Youshallhaveit.Anythingelse?Clemenceauasked.
Inafewseconds,itwasdone.ThehugeOttomanimperialprovinceofMosul,home
toSunniArabsandKurdsandtoplentifuloil,endedupaspartofthenewlycreated
countryofIraq,notthenewlycreatedcountryofSyria.

ENLARGE

The head of the Turkish delegation, Damad Ferid Pasha, arrives in Vaucresson, France, in
1920, to sign the Treaty of Svres, which abolished the Ottoman Empire after its defeat in
World War I. PHOTO: MAURICE BRANGER/ROGER-VIOLLET/THE IMAGE WORKS

TheOttomansranamultilingual,multireligiousempire,ruledbyasultanwhoalso
borethetitleofcaliphcommanderofalltheworldsMuslims.Havingjoinedthe
losingsideintheGreatWar,however,theOttomanssawtheirempiresummarily

dismantledbyEuropeanstatesmenwhoknewlittleabouttheregionspeople,
geographyandcustoms.
TheresultingMiddleEasternstateswereoftenartificialcreations,sometimeswith
implausiblystraightlinesforborders.Theyhavekeptgoingsincethen,byandlarge,
remainingwithintheircolonialerafrontiersdespiterepeatedattemptsatpanArab
unification.
ThebuiltinimbalancesinsomeofthesenewlycarvedoutstatesparticularlySyria
andIraqspawnedbrutaldictatorshipsthatsucceededfordecadesinsuppressing
restivemajoritiesandperpetuatingtheruleofminoritygroups.
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Butnowitmayallbecomingtoanend.SyriaandIraqhaveeffectivelyceasedto
functionasstates.Largepartsofbothcountriesliebeyondcentralgovernment
control,andtheverymeaningofSyrianandIraqinationhoodhasbeenhollowedout
bythedominanceofsectarianandethnicidentities.
TheriseofIslamicStateisthedirectresultofthismeltdown.TheSunniextremist
groupsleader,AbuBakralBaghdadi,hasproclaimedhimselfthenewcaliphand
vowedtoerasetheshameoftheSykesPicotconspiracy.Afterhismensurgedfrom
theirstrongholdinSyrialastsummerandcapturedMosul,nowoneofIraqslargest
cities,hepromisedtodestroytheoldborders.Inthatoffensive,oneofthefirstactions
takenbyISIS(ashisgroupisalsoknown)wastoblowupthecustomscheckpoints
betweenSyriaandIraq.
WhatwearewitnessingisthedemiseofthepostOttomanorder,thedemiseofthe
legitimatestates,saysFrancisRicciardone,aformerU.S.ambassadortoTurkeyand
EgyptwhoisnowattheAtlanticCouncil,aWashingtonthinktank.ISISisapiece
ofthat,anditisfillinginavacuumofthecollapseofthatorder.
InthemayhemnowengulfingtheMiddleEast,itismostlythecountriescreateda
centuryagobyEuropeancolonialiststhatarecomingapart.Intheregionsmore

naturalnations,amuchstrongersenseofsharedhistoryandtraditionhas,sofar,
preventedasimilarimplosion.

ENLARGE

A map attached to the secret Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916 divvied up the Middle East
between Britain and France. PHOTO: THE NATIONAL ARCHIVES OF THE UK

MuchoftheconflictintheMiddleEastistheresultofinsecurityofcontrived
states,saysHusainHaqqani,anauthorandaformerPakistaniambassadortothe
U.S.Contrivedstatesneedstateideologiestomakeupforlackofhistoryandoften
flexmusclesagainsttheirownpeopleoragainstneighborstoconsolidatetheir
identity.
InEgypt,withitsmillennialhistoryandstrongsenseofidentity,almostnobody
questionedthecountrysbasicEgyptiannessthroughouttheupheavalthathas
followedPresidentHosniMubaraksousterina2011revolution.Asaresult,mostof
Egyptsinstitutionshavesurvivedtheturbulencerelativelyintact,andviolencehas
stoppedwellshortofoutrightcivilwar.
TurkeyandIranbothofthem,inbygoneeras,thecenterofvastempireshavealso
gonelargelyunscathedinrecentyears,eventhoughbothhavelargeethnicminorities
oftheirown,includingArabsandKurds.

TheMiddleEastscontrivedcountrieswerentnecessarilydoomedtofailure,and
someofthemnotablyJordanarentcollapsing,atleastnotyet.Theworld,after
all,isfullofmultiethnicandmulticonfessionalstatesthataresuccessfuland
prosperous,fromSwitzerlandtoSingaporetotheU.S.,whichremainsarelative
newcomerasanationcomparedwith,say,Iran.
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Inalltheseplaces,asocialcompactusuallybasedongoodgovernanceand
economicopportunityoftenmakesethnicandreligiousdiversityasourceof
strength,notanengineofinstability.IntheMiddleEast,bycontrast,inthecases
wherethewheelshavecomeoff,therewasnotgoodgovernancetherewasinfact
execrablegovernance,saysMr.Ricciardone.
Acenturyago,manyhopedthatSyriaandIraq,too,wouldfollowSwitzerlandspath.
Atthetime,President

WoodrowWilsonsentacommissiontotheMiddleEastto
explorewhatnewnationsshouldrisefromthewreckageoftheOttomanEmpire.
UnderOttomanrule,neitherSyrianorIraqexistedasseparateentities.ThreeOttoman
provincesBaghdad,BasraandMosulroughlycorrespondedtotodaysIraq.Four
othersDamascus,Beirut,AleppoandDeirezZorincludedtodaysSyria,
LebanonandmuchofJordanandPalestine,aswellasalargestripofsouthern
Turkey.AllwerepopulatedbyahodgepodgeofcommunitiesSunniandShiite
Arabs,Kurds,TurkomansandChristiansinIraq,andinSyria,allthesegroupsaswell
asAlawitesandDruse.
PresidentWilsonscommissioners,HenryKingandCharlesCrane,reportedback
theirfindingsinAugust1919.InEuropeatthetime,thebreakupoftheAustro
HungarianandRussianempireswasleadingtothebirthofnewethnicbasednation
states.ButtheU.S.officialshaddifferentideas:TheyadvisedWilsontoignorethe
MiddleEastsethnicandreligiousdifferences.

WhatisnowIraq,theysuggested,shouldstayunitedbecausethewisdomofaunited
countryneedsnoargumentinthecaseofMesopotamia.Theyalsoarguedfora
greaterSyriaanareathatwouldhaveincludedtodaysLebanon,Jordan,Israel
andthePalestinianterritories.
TheendofOttomanrule,KingandCraneargued,givesagreatopportunitynot
likelytoreturntobuildaNearEastStateonthemodernbasisoffullreligious
liberty,deliberatelyincludingvariousreligiousfaiths,andespeciallyguardingthe
rightsofminorities.Thelocals,theyadded,oughttodofarbetterunderastateon
modernlinesthanunderOttomanrule.
ThehopesoftheAmericansdidntpanout.
InSyria,theFrenchcolonialauthoritiesfacedwithahostileSunnimajority
courtedfavorwiththeAlawites,aminorityoffshootofShiiteIslamthathadsuffered
discriminationunderOttomanrule.TheFrenchevenbrieflycreatedaseparate
AlawitestateonwhatisnowSyriasMediterraneancoastandheavilyrecruited
Alawitesintothenewarmedforces.
InIraq,whereShiitesmakeupthemajority,theBritishadministratorsfacedwitha
Shiiterevoltsoonaftertheiroccupationbeganplayedasimilargame.Thenew
administrationdisproportionatelyreliedontheSunniArabminority,whichhad
prosperedundertheOttomansandnowralliedaroundthenewSunnikingofIraq,
whomBritainhadimportedfromnewlyindependentHijaz,aformerOttoman
provincesinceconqueredbySaudiArabia.
ThosedecisionshelpedtoshapethefutureofIraqandSyriaoncethecolonialorder
wasgone.TheAssadfamilyhasruledSyriasince1970;SaddamHusseinbecame
presidentofIraqin1979.NotwithstandingtheirloftyrhetoricaboutasingleArab
nation,bothregimesturnedtheircountriesintoplaceswheretheminorityruling
communities(AlawitesinSyria,SunniArabsinIraq)weredecidedlymoreequalthan
others.
AttemptsbytheSunnimajorityinSyriaortheShiitemajorityinIraqtochallenge
theseharshlyauthoritarianorderswereputdownwithoutmercy.In1982,theSyrian

regimebulldozedthelargelySunnicityofHamaafteranIslamistrevolt,andSaddam
unleashedhiswrathtocrushaShiiteuprisinginsouthernIraqaftertheGulfWarin
1991.
InSyriatoday,manyAlawitesarebackingPresidentBasharalAssad

againstlargely
Sunnirebelsoutoffearthattheregimescollapsecouldwipeouttheirentire
communityathreatreinforcedbyIslamicState,whoseSunniextremistsoffer
AlawitesandmainstreamShiitesastarkchoicebetweenconversionanddeath.
InIraq,theShiitedominatedgovernmentsthathaveruledsincetheU.S.invasionin
2003haveturnedthetablesonthecountrysformerrulersbydiscriminatingagainst
theminoritySunnis.Asaresult,IslamicStatemanagedtoseizeSunnipartsofIraq
lastyearlargelyunopposedbecausethegroupwasoftenseenbythelocalsasalesser
evil.
Itsnotjusttheterritorialboundariesthatareanissueitsthemapofgovernance
thatwascontrivedbyEurope,saysValiNasr,deanoftheSchoolofAdvanced
InternationalStudiesattheJohnsHopkinsUniversityandaformerStateDepartment
adviser.Colonialpowerswithinthestatescreatedcolonialadministrationsthat
educated,recruitedandempoweredminorities.Whentheyleft,theyleftthepowerin
thehandsofthoseminoritiestheyleftthedictatorshipoftheminorities.
PowerwassooutofalignmentinIraq,Syriaandmanyofthesecountries,andthere
isnoproperformulaofhowtomakethisright.Thewinnersdontwanttoshare,the
losersdontwanttogiveuppower,Dr.Nasradded.TheMiddleEastisgoing
throughaperiodofbigturmoil,afterwhichitwillendupwithaverydifferent
politicalconfigurationandperhapsalsoadifferentterritorialconfiguration.
ButhowmuchappetiteisthereintheMiddleEasttochangetheseterritorial
configurations?Andiftheywerechanged,whatmightanewmapoftheregionlook
like?
OneobviouspossibilityinvolvestheKurds,whosedesiretowinanindependentstate
inwhatisnoweasternTurkeyandnorthernIraqwasendorsedbytheshortlived
TreatyofSvres,a1920pactamongtheWesternalliesandtheOttomans.Thattreaty
waspromptlyrepudiatedbyTurkishnationalistsledbyMustafaKemalAtatrk,the

founderofthemodernTurkishstate.Untilrecently,infact,Turkeyhasdeniedthe
veryexistenceofaseparateKurdishethnicity.
TheKurds,wholivescatteredacrossIraq,Turkey,SyriaandIran,havealready
enjoyeddecadesofvirtualindependenceunderanautonomousgovernmentin
northernIraqthemountainouspartofwhatwasoncetheOttomanprovinceof
Mosul.TheyhavenowestablishedthreeautonomouscantonsinnorthernSyria.
Idbesurprisedif,in20years,therewontbeacountrycalledKurdistan,
saidKarimSadjapour,aMiddleEastanalystattheCarnegieEndowment.Italready
exists,defacto.
Withtheirseparatelanguageandculture,theKurdsinIraqalreadycontroltheir
bordersandsecurity,limitingentrybyArabIraqis.AscivilwarhasragedinSyria,
Kurdishmilitiastherehavecometoidentify,byandlarge,withadifferentnational
project.TheotherrebelsfightforSyria,butwehaveourownKurdistan,andthatis
whatwecareabout,saidFaridAtti,anofficialwithasecularKurdishmilitia
combatingIslamicStatenearthetownofKobane,whichisoneofthethree
autonomousKurdishcantonsinSyria.
BeyondKurdistan,however,thecaseforseparatenewnationsbecomesmuchless
clear,despitetheethnicandsectarianhorrorsthattormenttheregiontoday.
Forone,nomatterhowartificialtheyoriginallywere,thepostOttomanstateshave
provensurprisinglyresilient.ConsiderLebanon,acountryofsome18squabbling
religiouscommunitiesthatsurvivedabloody,multisidedcivilwarfrom1975to
1990andhasrepeatedlydefiedpredictionsofitsimminentdemise.Despiteor
perhapsbecauseofthatstrifefilledhistory,Lebanonremainsanislandofrelative
stabilityamidthecurrentregionalupheaval,evenasitisbeingoverwhelmedbymore
thanamillionSyrianrefugeesfleeingthechaosnextdoor.
Therulersofthosecountriesthatwereformedalongadmittedlyartificialborders
initiallyhaveputplentyofeffortintobuildingasenseofnationalism.Thequestionis
howmuchittook?saysMicheleDunne,aformerseniorStateDepartmentofficial
whoisnowaMiddleEastexpertattheCarnegieEndowment.Itmaynotbeas
strongasinacountrythathadasenseofitselfforcenturies,butitstillmaybethere.

Indeed,eveninbatteredandtatteredIraqandSyria,nationalistfeelingsremainvery
muchalive.IfanycountrypassedthroughwhatIraqhaspassedthroughinthelast12
years,itwouldhavebeendismemberedbynow,saidAyadAllawi,Iraqsvice
presidentandaformerprimeminister.Whatkeptthecountrygoingwasthewillof
thepeople.
InSyria,a19yearoldstudentMohammedAlirecentlyrecalledthewaythatlocals
reactedtothearrivalofIslamicStateinhishometownofalBoukamal,neartheIraqi
border.Aspartofitscampaigntoerasecolonialfrontiers,thenewrulersdetachedal
BoukamalfromtheSyrianprovincetowhichitbelongsandincorporateditinto
IslamicStatesnewProvinceofEuphrates,governedfromtheIraqicityofQaim.
Atfirst,Mr.Alisaid,thelocalswereexcitedbythedestructionofthenearbyborder.
For30years,wehavenotbeenabletocrossandvisitourrelativesontheother
side,Mr.Alisaid.Sincethen,however,themoodhasturnedtopatrioticbacklash
amidresentmentofIraqisfloodingthearea,lordingoveralBoukamalandtrucking
stolenSyrianoilacrossthefrontier.Wedontwantthemhere;wenowwantthe
borderback,hesaid.
Standinginthewayofpossiblenewpartitionsintheregionisanothersetofissues:
Whereexactlywouldyoudrawthelines?Andatwhatcost?
Despitetheethniccleansingofrecentyears,SunnisandShiitesstilllivetogetherin
manypartsofIraq,includingBaghdad,andagreatmanySyrianSunniswouldstill
ratherliveincitiescontrolledbytheAssadregimethaninwarravagedareasunder
rebelsway.
Mr.Allawi,theIraqivicepresident,pointsoutthatmanyofthecountrystraditional
tribalgroupsincludebothShiitesandSunnisandthatmanyIraqifamilies,
especiallyinthelargercities,aremixedtoo.Youdhavetogothroughthebedrooms
ofpeopletoseparatethecountry,hequips.AndinIraqaselsewhere,Sunnis,Shiites
andKurdsarehardlyunitary,consensusdrivengroups;rivalriesaboundwithinthem.
TheonlyrecentpartitionofanArabcountrythesplitofSudanintotheArabnorth
andthenew,largelynonArabRepublicofSouthSudanin2011doesntprovidean

encouragingprecedentforwouldbemakersofnewborders.SouthSudanquicklyslid
intoacivilwarofitsownthathaskilledtensofthousandsanduprootedtwomillion
people.
Thereisnoalternativetoreplacethestatesystem,saysFawazGerges,whoteaches
MiddleEaststudiesattheLondonSchoolofEconomics.Otherwise,youmight
replaceonecivilwarwithmultiplecivilwars,andthatsexactlywhatcanhappenin
SyriaorIraq.Thisisacatastrophiccycle.
Forginganewbottomupsocialcompactwithintheregionsexistingborders
somethinglikelytohappenonlyafterpopulationstireofendlesswarsistheonly
wayforward,saysStephenHadley,whoservedasPresidentGeorgeW.Bushs
nationalsecurityadviserandnowchairstheboardoftheU.S.InstituteofPeace.
TherealproblemintheMiddleEast,hesays,isacollapsenotofthebordersbutof
whatwashappeninginsidetheborders:governmentsthatdidnothavealotof
legitimacytostartwithanddidnotearnlegitimacywiththeirpeople.Yourenot
goingtosolvetheseproblemsbyredrawingtheborders.
Findingthosesolutions,Mr.Hadleyacknowledges,wontbeeasy.
Itmaybepastredeeming,hesays.Gettingoutofthisisgoingtobetheworkofa
generation.