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Chapter 6: Forecasting
1. Introduction
Forecasting is vital to every business organization and for every significant
management decision. Forecasting is the basis of corporate long-run planning. In
the functional areas of finance and accounting, forecasts provide the basis for
budgetary planning and cost control. Marketing relies on sales forecasting to plan
new products, compensate sales personnel, and make other key decisions.
Production and operations personnel use forecasts to make periodic decisions
involving process selection, capacity planning, and facility layout, as well as for
continual decisions about production planning scheduling, and inventory.
Bear in mind that a perfect forecast is usually impossible. Too many factors in the
business environment cannot be predicted with certainty. Therefore, rather than
search for the perfect forecast, it is far more important to establish the practice of
continual review of forecasts and to learn to live with inaccurate forecasts. When
forecasting, a good strategy is to use two or three methods and look at them for the
commonsense view.

2. Types of forecasting
Forecasting can be classified into four basic types:
Qualitative: Qualitative techniques are subjective or judgmental and are based on
estimates and opinions.
Time series analysis: This is based on the idea that data relating to past demand
can be used to predict future demand.
Causal relationships: Causal forecasting, which we discuss using the linear
regression technique, assumes that demand is related to some underlying factor or
factors in the environment.
Simulation: Simulation models allow the forecaster to run through a range of
assumptions about the condition of the forecast.

3. Qualitative techniques in forecasting

Grass roots: this method builds the forecast by adding successively from the
bottom. The assumption here is that the person closest to the customer or end user
of the product knows its future needs best. Forecasts at this bottom level are
summed and given to the next higher level. This is usually a district warehouse,
which then adds in safety stocks and any effects of ordering quantity sizes. This
amount is then fed to the next level, which may be a regional warehouse. The
procedure repeats until it becomes an input at the top level, which, in the case of a
manufacturing firm, would be the input to the production system.
Market research: Firms often hire outside companies that specialize in market
research to conduct this type of forecasting. Market research is used mostly for
product research in the sense of looking for new product ideas, likes and dislikes
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about existing products, which competitive products within a particular class are
preferred, and so on. The data collection methods are primarily surveys and
interviews.
Historical analogy: In trying to forecast demand for a new product, an ideal situation
would be where an existing product or generic product could be used as a model.
There are many ways to classify such analogies--for example, complementary
products, substitutable or competitive products, and products as a function of
income. If you buy a CD through the mail, you will receive more mail about new CDs
and CD players. Another example would be toasters and coffee pots. A firm that
already produces toasters and wants to produce coffee pots could use the toaster
history as a likely growth model.
Panel consensus: In a panel consensus, the idea that two heads are better than one
is extrapolated to the idea that a panel of people from a variety of positions can
develop a more reliable forecast than a narrower group. Panel forecasts are
developed through open meetings with free exchange of ideas from all levels of
management and individuals. The difficulty with this open style is that lower
employee levels are intimidated by higher levels of management. For example, a
salesperson in a particular product line may have a good estimate of future product
demand but may not speak up to refute a much different estimate given by the vice
president of marketing. The Delphi technique overcomes this problem.
Delphi method: this method conceals the identity of the individuals participating in
the study. Everyone has the same weight. Procedurally, a moderator creates a
questionnaire and distributes it to participants. Their responses are summed and
given back to the entire group along with a new set of questions. This technique can
usually achieve satisfactory results in three rounds.

4. Time series analysis

Time series is just a fancy term for a collection of observations of some economic or
physical phenomenon drawn at discrete points in time, usually equally spaced. The
idea is that information can be inferred from the pattern of past observations and can
be used to forecast future values of the series.
4.1. Components of demand
In most cases, demand for products or services can be broken down into six
components: average demand for the period, a trend, seasonal element, cyclical
elements, random variation, and autocorrelation. See appendix for an example
figure of these components.
Cyclical factors are more difficult to determine because the time span may be
unknown or the cause of the cycle may not be considered. Cyclical influence on
demand may come from such occurrences as political elections, war, economic

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conditions, or sociological pressures. The cyclic variation is similar to seasonality,

except that the length and the magnitude of the cycle may vary.
Random variations are caused by chance events. Statistically, when all the known
causes for demand (average, trend, seasonal, cyclical, and auto-correlative) are
subtracted from total demand, what remains is the unexplained portion of demand.
If we cannot identify the cause of this remainder, it is assumed to be purely random
chance.
Autocorrelation denotes the persistence of occurrence. More specifically, it
measures the degree of dependency among values of observed data separated by
a fixed number of periods.
4.2. Methods for forecasting stationary series
A stationary time series is one in which each observation can be represented by a
constant plus a random fluctuation.
4.2.1. Simple moving average
When demand for a product is neither growing nor declining rapidly, and if it does
not have seasonal characteristics, a moving average can be useful in removing the
random fluctuations for forecasting.
In a N-period simple moving average, we take the average of last N periods as our
forecast for the next period.
Example 1:
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Actual
Demand
800
1400
1000
1500
1500
1300
1800
1700
1300
1700
1700
1500
2300
2300
2000

3-week

9-week

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Although it is important to select the best period for the moving average, there are
several conflicting effects of different period lengths. The longer the moving average
period, the more the random elements are smoothed. But if there is a trend in the
data either increasing or decreasing the moving average has the adverse
characteristic of lagging the trend. Therefore, for a shorter time span, there is a
closer following of the trend. Conversely, a longer time span gives a smoother
response but lags the trend.
The main disadvantage with this method is that all individual elements must be
carried as data because a new forecast period involves adding new data and
dropping the earliest data. The amount of data involved is significant.
Another shortcoming of this method is it lags behind the trend. Consider a demand
process in which there is a definite trend as follows.
Period
Actual
demand
3-period avg
6-period avg

10

11

12

8
4

10
6

12
8

14
10
7

16
12
9

18
14
11

20
16
13

22
18
15

24
20
17

Notice that both the 3-period and 6-period moving average forecasts lag behind the
trend, and that the forecast with a smaller N value follows the actual demand more
closely.
4.2.2. Weighted moving average
Whereas the simple moving average gives equal weight to each component of the
moving average database, a weighted moving average allows any weights to be
placed on each element, providing, of course, that the sum of all weights equals 1.
For example, a department store may find that in a four-month period, the best
forecast is derived by using 40 percent of the actual sales for the most recent
month, 30 percent of two months ago, 20 percent of three months ago, and 10
percent of four months ago. If actual sales experience was
month 1
100

month 2
90

month 3
105

month 4
95

month 5
?

The forecast for month 5 would be

F5 =
Suppose sales for month 5 actually turned out to be 110. Then the forecast for
month 6 would be
F6 =

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Choosing weights: experience and trial and error are the simplest ways to choose
weights. As a general rule, the most recent past is the most important indicator of
what to expect in the future, and therefore, it should get higher weighting. However,
if the data are seasonal, for example, weights should be established accordingly.
Bathing suit sales in July of last year should be weighted more heavily than bathing
suit sales in December.
Example 2:
In Atlanta, the number of daily calls for repair of Speedy copy machines in 8 days
has been recorded as follows:
actual
demand

day
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

3-day moving
avg

Forecast
error

weighted moving
avg

Forecast
error

92
127
103
165
132
111
174
94

a. Prepare a 3-period moving average forecast. What is the error on each day?
b. Prepare a 3-period weighted moving average forecast with w1=0.2, w2=0.3, and
w3=0.5(most recent data carries heaviest weight). What is the error on each
day?
c. Which of the two forecasts is better? (use MAD to judge)

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4.2.3. Exponential smoothing

Exponential smoothing is the most used of all forecasting techniques. It is an integral
part of virtually all computerized forecasting programs, and it is widely used in
ordering inventory in retail firms, wholesale companies, and service agencies.
Exponential smoothing methods have become well accepted for six major reasons:
Exponential models are surprisingly accurate
Formulating an exponential model is relatively easy
The user can understand how the model works
Little computation is required to use the model
Computer storage requirements are small because of the limited use of
historical data
Tests for accuracy as to how well the model is performing are easy to
compute
In the exponential smoothing method, only three pieces of data are needed to
forecast the future: the most recent forecast, the actual demand that occurred for
that forecast period, and a smoothing constant alpha (). This smoothing constant
determines the level of smoothing and the speed of reaction to differences between
forecasts and actual occurrences. The value for the constant is determined both by
the nature of the product and by the managers sense of what constitutes a good
response rate. For example, if a firm produced a standard item with relatively stable
demand, the reaction rate to differences between actual and forecast demand would
tend to be small, perhaps just 5 or 10 percentage points. However, if the firm were
experiencing growth, it would be desirable to have a higher reaction rate, perhaps 15
to 30 percentage points, to give greater importance to recent growth experience.
The more rapid the growth, the higher the reaction rate should be.
The equation for a single exponential smoothing forecast is simply
Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 Ft-1)
Example 3:
Assume last months forecast was 1050, and 1000 actually were demanded. What is
the forecast for this month? Use = 0.05.

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The following is some supplementary info for you to understand why we use the
term exponential. You can skip it if you are not interested.
Notice that Ft-1 = Ft-2 + (At-2 Ft-2), substituting into the above equation yields
Ft = At-1 + (1- ) At-2 + (1- )2 Ft-2
We can substitute for Ft-2 in the same fashion. If we continue in this way we obtain
the infinite expansion for Ft:

Ft = (1 ) i At i 1
i =0

Hence, exponential smoothing applies a declining set of weights to all past data. In
fact, we can fit the continuous exponential curve exp(-i) to these weights, which is
why the method is called exponential smoothing. The smoothing constant plays
essentially the same role here as the value of N does in moving averages. If is
large, more weight is placed on the current observation of demand and less weight
on past observations, which results in forecasts that will react quickly to changes in
the demand pattern but may have much greater variation from period to period.

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4.3. Trend-based methods

Both moving average and exponential smoothing forecasts will lag behind a trend if
one exists. In this section we consider two forecasting methods that specifically
account for a trend in the data: enhanced exponential smoothing with trend and
regression analysis. The former is a type of double exponential smoothing that
allows for simultaneous smoothing on the series and on the trend. The latter is a
method that fits a straight line to a set of data.
4.3.1. Enhanced exponential smoothing with trend
Note that in simple exponential smoothing, the forecast always lags the actual
occurrence. This can be somewhat corrected by adding in a trend adjustment. A
smoothing constant delta () is introduced.
The equation to compute the forecast including trend (FIT) is
FITt = Ft + Tt
Where Ft = FITt-1 + (At-1 FITt-1), and Tt = Tt-1 + (Ft FITt-1)
To get the equation going, the first time it is used the trend value must be entered
manually. This initial trend value can be an educated guess or a computation based
on observed past data.
Example 4:
Assume an initial starting forecast of 100, a trend of 10, an alpha of 0.2, and a delta
of 0.3. If actual demand turned out to be 115 rather than the forecast 100, calculate
the forecast including trend for the next period. If the actual for the next period
turned out to be 120, then what is the forecast including trend for the second next
period?

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4.3.2. Linear regression analysis

Regression can be defined as a functional relationship between two or more
correlated variables. It is used to predict one variable given the other. Linear
regression refers to the special class of regression where the relationship between
variables forms a straight line. The linear regression line if of the form Y = a + b x,
where a is the Y intercept, b is the slope.
The least squares method is used to fit the line to the data. This method tries to
minimize the sum of the squares of the vertical distance between each data point
and its corresponding point on the line. The parameters of the line are given by

a = y bx
b=

xy nx. y
x nx
2

Example 5:
A firms sales for a product line during the 12 quarters of the past three years were
as follows:
Quarter
1
2
3
4
5
6

Sales
600
1550
1500
1500
2400
3100

Quarter
7
8
9
10
11
12

Sales
2600
2900
3800
4500
4000
4900

The firm wants to forecast each quarter of the fourth yearthat is, quarters 13
through 16.
Solution:
x

xy

600

1550

1500

1500

2400

3100

2600

2900

3800

10

4500

11

4000

12

4900

x2

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4.4. Methods for seasonal series

A seasonal series is one that has a pattern that repeats every N periods for some
value of N, which is referred to as the length of the season. Note that this is different
from the popular usage of the word season as a time of year. For example, the
demand for haircuts may peak on Saturday, week to week. In this case, the
seasonal pattern lasts a week, and the seasons are the days of the week.
4.4.1. Seasonality
There are several ways to represent seasonality. Here we examine tow types of
seasonal variation: additive and multiplicative.
Additive seasonal variation simply assumes that the seasonal amount is a
constant no matter what the trend or average amount is. Seasonal forecasts
are generated by adding a constant (say, 50 units) to the estimate of average
demand per season.
In multiplicative seasonal variation, seasonal factors are multiplied by an
estimate of average demand to arrive at a seasonal forecast. This implies that
the seasonal pattern depends on the level of demand. The peaks and valleys
are more extreme when average demand is high. Essentially, this says that
the larger the basic amount projected, the larger the variation around this that
we can expect. We restrict our attention to this case as it is the usual
experience.
Seasonal factor (or index): a seasonal factor is the amount of correction needed in a
time series to adjust for the season of the year.
4.4.2. Seasonal factors for stationary series
Now we present a simple method of computing seasonal factors for a time series
with seasonal variation and no trend.
Compute the overall average per season from all the data
Find the average demand for the same season
Divide each seasonal average by the overall seasonal average. This gives
seasonal factors for each season.
To calculate each seasons forecast for next year, begin by estimating the average
demand per season for next year, then obtain the final forecast by multiplying the
seasonal factor by the average demand per season.
Example 6:
The manager of the Stanley Steemer carpet cleaning company needs a quarterly
forecast of the number of customers expected next year. The carpet cleaning
business is seasonal, with a peak in the third quarter and a trough in the first quarter.
Following are the quarterly demand data from the past four years:
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1
2
3
4

Year 1
45
335
520
100

Year 2
70
370
590
170

Year 3
100
585
830
285

Year 4
100
725
1160
215

The manager wants to forecast customer demand for each quarter of year 5, based
on her estimate of total year 5 demand of 2600 customers.
Solution:
Overall Avg quarterly sales in past years =
Avg quarterly sales for next year =
avg past sales

seasonal
factor

forecast for next year

Quarter 1
Quarter 2
Quarter 3
Quarter 4

4.4.3. Decomposition of a time series

When demand contains both seasonal and trend effects at the same time, we need
to identify and separate the time series data into these components to obtain better
forecast. This is called decomposition of a time series.
Now lets see how to decompose a time series using least squares regression. The
general procedure involves 5 steps:

Step 1: determine the seasonal factor

Step 2: deseasonalize the original data. To remove the seasonal effect on the
data, we divide the original data by the seasonal factor.
Step 3: develop a least squares regression line for the deseasonalized data.
The purpose is to develop an equation for the trend line.
Step 4: project the regression line through the period(s) to be forecasted.
Step 5: create the final forecast by adjusting the regression line by the
seasonal factor (re-seasonalizing).

Example 7:
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Use the same data given in example 5, but now we consider the seasonal effect.
Suppose the seasonal factor is given by the average for the same quarters in the 3year period divided by the general average for all 12 quarters. What are the
forecasts for the quarters 13 through 16?
Solution:
Overall quarterly avg. =
avg

seasonal factor

Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter

Quarter

Sales

600

1,550

1,500

1,500

2,400

3,100

2,600

2,900

3,800

10

4,500

11

4,000

12

4,900

deseasonalized
demand

Quarter

Trend-based
forecast

Final forecast

13
14
15
16

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4.5. Evaluating forecasts

4.5.1. Measures of forecast error
Define the forecast error in period t, et, as the difference between the forecast value
for that period and the actual demand for that period:
et = Ft At
Two common measures of forecast accuracy during n periods are the mean
absolute deviation (MAD) and the mean squared error (MSE), given by the following
formulas:
MAD =

1 n
ei
n i =1

MSE =

1 n 2
ei
n i =1

Note that the MSE is similar to the variance of a random sample. The MAD is often
the preferred method of measuring the forecast error because it does not require
squaring. Furthermore, when forecast errors are normally distributed, as is generally
assumed, an estimate of the standard deviation of the forecast error, e, is given by
1.25 times the MAD.
Another measure of forecast accuracy is known as the mean absolute percentage
1 n e
error (MAPE) and is given by MAPE = i * 100 . It is independent of the
n i =1 Ai
magnitude of the values of demand.
4.5.2. Criteria for selecting time-series methods
The criteria to use in making forecast method and parameter choices include
Minimizing bias
Minimizing MAD or MSE
Meeting managerial expectations of changes in the components of demand
Minimizing the forecast error last period.
However, managers recognize that the best technique in explaining the past data is
not necessarily the best to predict the future. For this reason, some analysts prefer
to use a holdout set as a final test. To do so, they set aside some of the more recent
periods from the time series, and use only the earlier time periods to develop and
test different model. Once the final models have been selected in the first phase,
then they are tested again with the holdout set.

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5. Causal relationship forecasting

Linear regression technique is used in causal relationship forecasting. In the linear
regression method, when the dependent variable (usually the vertical axis on a
graph) changes as a result of time (plotted as the horizontal axis), it is time series
analysis. If one variable changes because of the change in another variable, this is a
causal relationship (such as the number of deaths from lung cancer increasing with
the number of people who smoke).
Example 8:
The Carpet City Store in Carpenteria has kept records of its sales (in square yards)
each year, along with the number of permits for new houses in its area.
Year
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

Permits
18
15
12
10
20
28
35
30
20

Sales
13000
12000
11000
10000
14000
16000
19000
17000
13000

Suppose that there are 25 permits for houses to be built in 2000. What is the
forecast for sales in 2000?

6. Concluding remarks

In selecting a forecasting method to use, a firm should consider many factors

including time horizon to forecast, data availability, accuracy required, size of
forecasting budget, availability of qualified personnel, etc.
Ways to cope with forecast errors: buffersafety stock, safety lead time,
excess capacity.
Characteristics of forecasts:
o They are usually wrong.
o A good forecast is more than a single number.
o Aggregate forecasts are more accurate.
o The longer the forecast horizon, the less accurate the forecast will be.
o Forecasts should not be used to the exclusion of known information.
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7. Exercises:
Question 1:
Sunrise Baking Company markets doughnuts through a chain of food stores. It has been
experiencing over- and under-production because of forecasting errors. The following data are
its demand in dozens of doughnuts for the past four weeks. Doughnuts are made for the
following day; for example, Sundays doughnut production is for Mondays sales, Mondays
production is for Tuesdays sales, and so forth. The bakery is closed Saturday, so Fridays
production must satisfy demand for both Saturday and Sunday.
4 weeks ago
Monday
2200
Tuesday
2000
Wednesday 2300
Thursday
1800
Friday
1900
Saturday
Sunday
2800

3 weeks ago
2400
2100
2400
1900
1800

2 weeks ago
2300
2200
2300
1800
2100

last week
2400
2200
2500
2000
2000

2700

3000

2900

Make a forecast for this week on the following basis:

A. Daily, using a simple four-week moving average.
B. Daily, using a weighted average of 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1 for the past four weeks.
C. Sunrise is also planning its purchases of ingredients for bread production. If bread demand
had been forecasted for last week at 22000 loaves and only 21000 loaves were actually
demanded, what would Sunrises forecast be for this week using exponential smoothing
with alpha = 0.1?
D. Suppose, with the forecast made in c, this weeks demand actually turns out to be 22500.
What would the new forecast be for the next week?

Question 2:
Here are quarterly data for the past two years. From these data, prepare a forecast for the
upcoming year using decomposition.
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Actual demand
300
540
885
580
416
760
1191
760

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Question 3:
The demand for Krispee Crunchies, a favorite breakfast cereal of people born in the 1940s, is
experiencing a decline. The company wants to monitor demand for this product closely as it
nears the end of its life cycle. The trend-adjusted exponential smoothing method is used with
alpha = 0.1 and delta=0.2. At the end of December, the January estimate for the average
number of cases sold per month, FJan, was 900000 and the trend, TJan, was -50000 per month.
The following table shows the actual sales history for Jan, Feb, and Mar. Generate forecast for
Feb, Mar, and Apr.
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar

Sales
890,000
800,000
825,000

Question 4:
The Northville Post Office experiences a seasonal pattern of daily mail volume every week. The
following data for two representative weeks are expressed in thousands of pieces of mail:
Day
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
total

week 1
5
20
30
35
49
70
15
224

week 2
8
15
32
30
45
70
10
210

A. Calculate a seasonal factor for each day of the week.

B. If the postmaster estimates that there will be 230,000 pieces of mail to sort next week,
forecast the volume for each day of the week.

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Answer Key
Question 1:
A.

Monday: (2200+2400+2300+2400)/4 = 2325 doz

Tue: 2125
Wed: 2375
Thu: 1875
Fri: 1950
Sat & Sun: 2850
B. Monday: (0.1*2200+0.2*2400+0.3*2300+0.4*2400)/4 = 2350 doz
Tue: 2160
Wed: 2400
Thu: 1900
Fri: 1980
Sat & Sun: 2880
C. Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 Ft-1) = 22000+0.1*(21000-22000) = 21900
D. Ft-1 = 21900 + 0.1*(22500-21900) = 21960

Question 2:
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Avg

Actual demand
300
540
885
580
416
760
1191
760
679

period avg
358
650
1038
670

seasonal facto
0.527
0.957
1.529
0.987
0.5272
0.9573
1.5287
0.9867

deseasonalized demand
568.99
564.09
578.92
587.79
789.01
793.91
779.08
770.21

Run a regression in Excel using deseasonalized demand, we obtain the parameter values: a = 500.6,
b=39.64
Therefore, we have:

period trend forecast

9
857.4
10
897.0
11
936.6
12
976.3

seasonal factor
0.527
0.957
1.529
0.987

final forecast
452.0
858.7
1431.9
963.3

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Question 3:
Feb: 804800
Mar: 755024
Apr: 714125

Question 4:
Day

week 1

Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
total

5
20
30
35
49
70
15
224

week
2
8
15
32
30
45
70
10
210

daily
avg
6.5
17.5
31
32.5
47
70
12.5
31

seasonal factor
0.210
0.565
1.000
1.048
1.516
2.258
0.403

forecast
6,889
18,548
32,857
34,447
49,816
74,194
13,249

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8. Appendix

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