Journal of the Transportation Research Board

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD

NO.

1706

Transportation Planning,
Public Participation, and
Telecommuting
Planning and Administration
Click on article title to reach abstract; abstracts link to full textclick on Full Text icon.

CONTENTS
Foreword

Testing for the Significance of Induced Highway Travel Demand in Metropolitan Areas
Lawrence C. Barr

Traffic Forecasting as if Intersection Control Matters: The Sequel

Sam Granato

Effects of Access Features and Interaction Among Driveways as Investigated by Simulation

Elena Shenk Prassas and Jin-Il Chang

Utahs Legal Framework for Corridor Preservation Activities

Mitsuru Saito, David A. Thomas, Robert S. Payne, and Glen J. Thurgood

Prioritizing Major Transportation Improvement Projects: Comparison of Evaluation Criteria

Dan Speicher, Marcy Schwartz, and Tim Mar

How Transportation Planners and Decision Makers Address Risk and Uncertainty
Shomik Raj Mehndiratta, Daniel Brand, and Thomas E. Parody

Options Approach to Risk Analysis in Transportation Planning

Daniel Brand, Shomik Raj Mehndiratta, and Thomas E. Parody

Conceptual Model to Support Systematic Use of Performance Measures in

State Transportation Agencies
Malcolm E. Baird and Robert E. Stammer, Jr.

Microscopic Simulation on High-Class Roads: Enhancement of Environmental Analyses and

Driving Dynamics: Practical Applications
Ville Lehmuskoski, Jarkko Niittymki, and Bjrn Silfverberg

Creating a Synthetic Household Travel and Activity Survey: Rationale and Feasibility Analysis
S. P. Greaves and P. R. Stopher

Picking Publics Properly: An Artful Science

Philancy Sarra Comeau and Donald A. Rodriguez

Public Involvement in Transportation Planning in the Washington, D.C., Region:

Report on an Assessment
Scott Graves and Sean Casey

Propensity to Work from Home: Modeling Results from the 1995 Nationwide Personal
Transportation Survey
Joshua Drucker and Asad J. Khattak

Forecasting and Assessing the Mobility Effects of Teleservices: Scenario Approach

M. J. Martens and W. Korver

Microsimulation Model of Activity-Travel Patterns and Traffic Flows: Specification, Validation Tests,
and Monte Carlo Error
Jan Veldhuisen, Harry Timmermans, and Loek Kapoen

ALBATROSS: Multiagent, Rule-Based Model of Activity Pattern Decisions

Theo Arentze, Frank Hofman, Henk van Mourik, and Harry Timmermans

Selection of a Traffic Control Strategy for Long-Range Travel Forecasting

Alan J. Horowitz and Sam Granato

On Modeling Departure-Time Choice for Home-Based Social/Recreational and Shopping Trips

Jennifer L. Steed and Chandra R. Bhat

Transportation Research Record 1706

ISSN 0361-1981
ISBN 0-309-06683-2
Subscriber category
IA planning and administration
Printed in the United States of America
Sponsorship of Transportation Research Record 1706
GROUP 1TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS PLANNING AND ADMINISTRATION
Michael S. Bronzini, George Mason University (Chairman)

Management and Administration Section

Sheldon M. Edner, Federal Highway Administration (Chairman)
Committee on Strategic Management
Robert C. Johns, University of Minnesota (Chairman), David L. Damm-Luhr, Daniel L. Dornan, Mark L. Ford, Jonathan L.
Gifford, Mary Anne Griss, Mark P. Howard, Anthony R. Kane, George T. Lathrop, Joseph F. Lewis, Stephen C. Lockwood,
Patricia V. McLaughlin, Hyun A. Park, Theodore H. Poister, Daniel B. Pritchard, James P. Redeker, Aad Ruhl, Constance S.
Sorrell, Roy Sparrow, Kathleen E. Stein, William G. Stringfellow, Cynthia A. Weatherby
Transportation Forecasting, Data, and Economics Section
Gordon A. Shunk, Texas Transportation Institute (Chairman)
Committee on Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting
T. Keith Lawton, METRO (Chairman), Kay W. Axhausen, Chandra R. Bhat, Daniel Brand, Youssef Dehghani, Ronald T.
Fisher, David A. Hensher, Alan Joel Horowitz, Peter M. Jones, Keith L. Killough, Frank S. Koppelman, David L. Kurth,
William R. Loudon, Fred L. Mannering, Eric J. Miller, Debbie A. Niemeier, Maren L. Outwater, Ram M. Pendyala,
Joseph N. Prashker, Martin G. Richards, Thomas F. Rossi, Jan van der Waard, Samuel L. Zimmerman
Committee on Transportation Planning Applications
Richard S. Marshment, University of Oklahoma (Chairman), Barbara J. Arens, Eugene L. Bandy, Rick Donnelly, Julie K. P.
Dunbar, Jerry M. Faris, Ronald T. Fisher, Jon D. Fricker, Brian Gardner, David T. Hartgen, Paul Hershkowitz, Jane Howard,
Keith L. Killough, George T. Lathrop, Adiele G. Nwankwo, Karl H. Quackenbush, George L. Reed, Karen Jones Savage,
Eddie Shafie, Gordon A. Shunk, Montie G. Wade, William A. Woodford, Samuel L. Zimmerman
Committee on Telecommunications and Travel Behavior
Patricia L. Mokhtarian, University of California at Davis (Chairman), Robert J. Aiken, Moshe E. Ben-Akiva, Chandra R.
Bhat, Ann Brewer, Dilara El-Assaad, Natalie H. Fay, Albert A. Grant, Susan Handy, John B. Hopkins, Lidia P. Kostyniuk,
Martin E. H. Lee-Gosselin, Hani S. Mahmassani, Martine Micozzi, John S. Niles, Piotr Olszewski, Ram M. Pendyala,
Joanne H. Pratt, Kimon Proussaloglou, Daniel B. Rathbone, Ed M. Risse, Ilan Salomon, Elham Shirazi, Edward Weiner,
Ellen Williams, Fred Laurence Williams
Transportation Systems Planning Section
George T. Lathrop, Charlotte Department of Transportation (Chairman)
Committee on Statewide Multimodal Transportation Planning
Neil J. Pedersen, Maryland State Department of Transportation (Chairman), Susan P. Mortel, Michigan Department of
Transportation (Vice Chairman), Thomas B. Brigham, James L. Covil, Janet L. DIgnazio, Mark L. Ford, John W. Fuller,
Randall K. Halvorson, Jill L. Hochman, Charles E. Howard, Jr., Dane Ismart, Gloria Jean Jeff, Marsha Kaiser, Kenneth J.
Leonard, Ysela Llort, Stephen C. Lockwood, Wende A. ONeill, Gordon A. Shunk, Sandra Straehl, William G. Stringfellow,
Martha J. Tate-Glass, Mary Lynn Tischer, Paul L. Verchinski, Norine M. Walker, Joanne Walsh
Committee on Public Involvement in Transportation
Jennifer Libby Weeks, Parsons Brinckerhoff (Secretary), Kathleen E. Stein, Howard Stein-Hudson Associates, Inc. (Liaison
Representative), Janet Bell, David S. Boyd, June Carlson, Joel P. Ettinger, Paula J. C. Hammond, Margaret Campbell
Jackson, Jana Lynott, Florence W. Mills, Rita OConnor, M. Ronald Poole, Monty A. Rahman, Joy M. Schaad, Marilyn
Skolnick, Lynda South, Lawrence Donald Steiger, Wendy Gasteiger Travis, Robert M. Winick, Alan C. Wulkan, Tetsuo Yai
Committee on Transportation Planning Needs and Requirements of Small
and Medium-Sized Communities
Katheryn Briscoe, Minnesota Department of Transportation (Chairman), Linda Wilshusen, Santa Cruz County Regional
Transportation Commission (Secretary), Janet Bell, Arun Chatterjee, Timothy G. Chelius, Robert J. Czerniak, Patrick
DeCorla-Souza, Jerry M. Faris, Jon D. Fricker, Steven B. Gayle, Joseph W. Guyton, Paul Hershkowitz, Susan L. Moe,
Virginia Porta, Elizabeth B. Rushley, Jerry Brian Schutz, Thomas B. Schwetz, Albert T. Stoddard III, Melissa S. Tooley,
Montie G. Wade

Committee on Transportation Programming, Planning, and Systems Evaluation

Dale A. Janik, Wilbur Smith Associates (Chairman), Thomas B. Brigham, Michelle Morris Brubaker, James L. Covil, Patrick
DeCorla-Souza, Joel P. Ettinger, James H. Evans, James W. Glock, Robert A. Gorman, Ron Hagquist, Peter L. Hathaway,
Rosemary M. Ingram, Steen Leleur, Timothy J. Lomax, Paul F. Maxwell, Lance A. Neumann, Theresa S. Petko, Allan J.
Schenkelberg, Ruby A. Siegel, Kumares C. Sinha, Gerald T. Solbeck, Mark L. Stout, Darwin G. Stuart, David Yale,
Brian J. Ziegler
Committee on Access Management
Ronald K. Giguere, Federal Highway Administration (Chairman), Philip B. Demosthenes, Arthur Jay Eisdorfer, James L.
Gattis, Jerry Gluck, Dane Ismart, Robert P. Jurasin, Frank J. Koepke, Douglas L. Landry, Lorinda Lasus, Robert Davis
Layton, Herbert S. Levinson, William R. McShane, Zoubir A. Ouadah, Raymond D. Richter, Eddie Shafie, John L. Simon,
Gary Sokolow, Vergil G. Stover, Kristine Williams, Gail Yazersky-Ritzer
Transportation Research Board Staff
James A. Scott, Transportation Planner
Freda R. Morgan, Administrative Assistant
Jon M. Williams, Transportation Environmental and Management Specialist
Mary Kissi, Administrative Assistant
Sponsorship is indicated by a footnote at the end of each paper. The organizational units, officers, and members are as of
December 31, 1999.

FOREWORD
The papers contained in this volume were among those presented at the 79th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research
Board in January 2000. Nearly 1,600 papers were submitted by authors; more than 1,000 were presented at the meeting; and
approximately 600 were accepted for publication in the 2000 Transportation Research Record series. The published papers will
also be issued on CD-ROM, which will be available for purchase in late 2000. It should be noted that the preprint CD-ROM
distributed at the 2000 meeting contains unedited, draft versions of presented papers, whereas the papers published in the
2000 Records include author revisions made in response to review comments.
Starting with the 1999 volumes, the title of the Record series has included Journal of the Transportation Research Board to
reflect more accurately the nature of this publication series and the peer-review process conducted in the acceptance of papers
for publication. Each paper published in this volume was peer reviewed by the sponsoring committee acknowledged at the end
of the text; members of the sponsoring committees for the papers in this volume are identified on page ii. Additional information about the Transportation Research Record series and the peer-review process can be found on the inside front cover. The
Transportation Research Board appreciates the interest shown by authors in offering their papers and looks forward to future
submissions.

Testing for the Significance of Induced

Highway Travel Demand in
Metropolitan Areas
Lawrence C. Barr
U.S. Department of Transportation, Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Accident Prevention Division,
DTS-73, 55 Broadway, Kendall Square, Cambridge, MA 02142.

FULL
TEXT

A research study was conducted to evaluate and quantify the effect of highway capacity improvements
on travel demand. Statistical models using Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey data were
designed to estimate relationships between average household travel time and vehicle-miles of travel.
Several regression models were estimated, and the results were stratified by urbanized area, public
transportation availability, metropolitan area size, family life cycle, day-of-week of travel, and
population density. Travel-time elasticities of 0.3 to 0.5 were generally found, after taking into
account the effects of household size, income, population density, and household employment. These
results suggest that travelers will spend 30 to 50 percent of the time savings afforded by highway
improvements in additional travel. Overall, the results of this study provide evidence that highway
capacity improvements can create additional travel, although the magnitude of the induced traffic effect
was found to be smaller than that reported by some previous researchers.

Traffic Forecasting as if Intersection

Control Matters
The Sequel
Sam Granato
Linn County Regional Planning Commission, City Hall6th Floor, Cedar Rapids, IA 52401.

FULL
TEXT

For the second time within 5 years, the traffic forecasting model application developed by the planning
staff for the Cedar Rapids, Iowa, area metropolitan planning organization (MPO) has achieved not only
a base-year accuracy that exceeds what other, larger MPOs have accomplished, but also a travelvolume and travel-time accuracy for the relatively high-volume streets that, in most cases, is not
significantly different from the sampling error of field observations. Comparable success has also been
achieved in modeling peak-hour traffic patterns, where applications have also been developed to model
peak-hour factoring and design hour volumes for transportation projects. The standard of accuracy
that has been achieved for this metro area has been made possible by two major differences from typical
MPO practice. First, travel estimates (trip generation rates) are based on field-measured vehicle-trip
rates rather than the common practice of a stated-response travel survey of the public (i.e., on what
people do rather than what they say they do). Second, and far more important, the modeling is based on
the dynamic integration of the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) methods of intersection traffic control
analysis with traditional traffic forecasting processes. Although there are many planning agencies that
claim to be using HCM procedures, the process described is shown to be the one that much more
faithfully replicates the flexible approach capacities and volume/delay relationships that are the direct
result of HCM-level analysis.

Effects of Access Features and

Interaction Among Driveways as
Investigated by Simulation
Elena Shenk Prassas and Jin-Il Chang
Polytechnic University, Six Metrotech Center, Brooklyn, NY 11201.

FULL
TEXT

The number, placement, and design features of driveways are important issues in access management.
Simulation was used extensively so that the key parameters and variables could be controlled efficiently
and so that underlying effects could be studied systematically. Some results were not surprising:
deceleration lanes are important, as are acceleration lanes; the presence of driveways has some adverse
effect on arterial through-vehicle speed; and the effect is greater as the number of driveways increases.
But the emphasis was placed also on the effects on driveway traffic, in terms of driveway per-vehicle
delay and queuing. For multiple driveways, the effect on the first (most upstream) driveway of the
presence of the others was dramatic. Delay and maximum queue size increased significantly, indicating
a substantial reduction in driveway capacity. This reduction was estimated at 30 to 50 percent by an
analytic investigation. The effect of adding one downstream driveway was equivalent to increasing the
arterial volume by 25 percent in the moderate-to-heavy flow range. Finally, the multiple driveway work
revealed an oddity in that the downstream driveway performed better than it would have if it were
alone. The authors attribute this to the decreased arte-rial environment and the sheltering effect of
the turbulence from the upstream driveway.

Utahs Legal Framework for

Corridor Preservation Activities
Mitsuru Saito, David A. Thomas, Robert S. Payne, and Glen J. Thurgood
M. Saito, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Brigham Young University, 368 Clyde Building, Provo, UT 84602.
D. A. Thomas and R. S. Payne, J. Reuben Clark Law School, Brigham Young University, 428 JRCB, Provo, UT 84602.
G. J. Thurgood, Kimly-Horn & Associates, Inc., 9320 SW Barbur Boulevard, Suite 150, Portland, OR 97219.

FULL
TEXT

Tools and techniques for corridor preservation strategies are categorized into two groups: interim
protection measures and preservation measures. Interim protection measures serve to hold land out of
development until it can be purchased; preservation measures definitively ensure that right-of-way will
be available when needed for a transportation facility. This almost invariably involves full transfer of
title of others rights to a public transportation or other government entity. These measures must be
implemented within the limits of the statutes that exist in the state where a public agency is located.
Whether state officials choose to establish a long-range highway corridor preservation program by
acquisition or by police power regulation, that program will be subject to several statutes that generally
constrain all such activities. A review of legislation in Utah and other U.S. states that specifically
addresses corridor preservation was conducted. It was found that about 20 states had some statutes
relating to corridor preservation. In Utah and in other states, however, few state legislative provisions
governing long-range preservation activities are orderly or systematic. A summary of findings on legal
issues of corridor preservation in Utah and possible ways for enabling long-term corridor preservations
so that states that face similar problems can glean insights from Utahs experience is presented. Also
presented is a model legislation that was developed based on study findings in an effort to raise the issue
of legal aspects of corridor preservation.

Prioritizing Major Transportation

Improvement Projects
Comparison of Evaluation Criteria
Dan Speicher, Marcy Schwartz, and Tim Mar
D. Speicher, CH2M HILL, 777 108th Avenue NE, Bellevue, WA 98004-5118. M. Schwartz, CH2M HILL, 825 NE Multnomah,
Suite 1300, Portland, OR 97232-2146. T. Mar, CH2M HILL, 2485 Natomas Park Drive, #600, Sacramento, CA 95833-2937.

FULL
TEXT

The lack of funding to meet identified transportation needs, the controversial nature of transportation
investment decisions, and the increasing demand by stakeholders to be involved in transportation
programming have driven the need to develop effective evaluation criteria within decision processes.
The Northeast Area Transportation Study (NEATS), performed by the city of Sacramento, California,
incorporated a process in which stakeholders, representing a broad cross section of interests, developed
quantitative evaluation criteria to prioritize projects for design and construction. In addition, a set of
existing citywide quantitative evaluation criteria was used to prioritize the NEATS projects. Despite the
significant differences in the two sets of criteria, the results of the two rankings were very similar. After
comparing the criteria, it was concluded both are appropriate for their intended uses. Observations are
offered for developing and applying evaluation criteria.

How Transportation Planners and

Decision Makers Address
Risk and Uncertainty
Shomik Raj Mehndiratta, Daniel Brand, and Thomas E. Parody
Charles River Associates, Inc., 200 Clarendon Street, T-33, Boston, MA 02116.

FULL
TEXT

A wide cross section of transportation planners was interviewed to understand how issues related to
risk and uncertainty are presently addressed in the metropolitan transportation planning process. The
results and insights from these interviews are reported. It was found that many of the current responses
to risks in making decisions on transportation investments could usefully be explained and improved
upon by the new options approach. The examples and the analyses of the interviews show that
metropolitan planning organization planners and more senior transportation executives and decision
makers are certainly aware of the risks they face in investing in major transportation projects.
Furthermore, they already are capable of responding to those risks in ways that can be better
appreciated and explained by the options approach. What is missing in metropolitan transportation
planning, and in the public-sector investment community at large, is an appreciation that there are
advantages to identifying and analyzing risks early in the planning process, and that investments
involving risk can be systematically analyzed in a risk management plan that uses the real-options
approach. This may result in (much) higher value investments to accomplish the stated investment
goals, while avoiding serious mistakes in investing in projects that may fall far short of the investment
goals.

Options Approach to Risk Analysis in

Transportation Planning
Daniel Brand, Shomik Raj Mehndiratta, and Thomas E. Parody
Charles River Associates, Inc., 200 Clarendon Street, T-33, Boston, MA 02116.

FULL
TEXT

The applicability of the real-options approach to risk management to the metropolitan transportation
planning process is described. The options approach to risk analysis brings to investment decisions the
insight that there is an inherent value in option-creating actions (by resolving uncertainty, enabling
flexibility, or uncovering new and relevant information) and a cost associated with exercising options
(irreversible commitments of resources and time). The options approach moves investment decision
making from simply choosing whether to build a project to a regime that considers a range of possible
decisions, with the potential value of each decision measured in terms of its option-creation value and
irreversible commitment cost. This approach is specifically designed to maximize the value of investments
having the characteristics of transportation projects that are subject to uncertainty and risk in their
outcomes. Also described is the new options approach; examples that illustrate the value of different kinds
of options are given. By recognizing the value of improved informationand actions to obtain itthe
options approach can give real impetus to improved planning methods. Because the analysis tools
provided by the options approach make it possible to value the additional information that improved
planning can provide, recommendations are provided on howand in what parts of the metropolitan
transportation planning processthe new tools of risk analysis can most appropriately be applied.

Conceptual Model to Support Systematic

Use of Performance Measures in
State Transportation Agencies
Malcolm E. Baird and Robert E. Stammer, Jr.
M. E. Baird, Tennessee Department of Transportation, Suite 700, James K. Polk Building, Nashville, TN 37243.
R. E. Stammer, Jr., Vanderbilt University, Box 90, Station B, Nashville, TN 37235.

FULL
TEXT

State transportation agencies (STAs) have significant experience in measuring many different aspects of
transportation system performance, but they have very limited experience in measuring the performance
of the STA as an organization or the performance of programs for which the STA is responsible. Based
on research of organizational and program performance measures, a conceptual model to help STAs
develop and implement a comprehensive measurement system is proposed. The proposed model helps
define the various types of performance measures and illustrates the interrelationships. Examples are
offered for each type of measure. The model is flexible and can be adapted to fit unique circumstances
and priorities and to focus on the aspects of performance that are most important to a particular
organization. After the model and accompanying typology are explained, the utility of the model is
described, with examples of beneficial uses.

Microscopic Simulation on
High-Class Roads
Enhancement of Environmental Analyses and
Driving Dynamics: Practical Applications
Ville Lehmuskoski, Jarkko Niittymki, and Bjrn Silfverberg
V. Lehmuskoski, LT Consultants Ltd. and Helsinki University of Technology, and B. Silfverberg, LT Consultants Ltd., Melkonkatu 9,
00210 Helsinki, Finland. J. Niittymki, Helsinki University of Technology, Laboratory of Transportation Engineering,
P.O. Box 2100, FIN-02015 HUT, Finland.

FULL
TEXT

Traffic is a very complex phenomenon. As the calculation power and capacity of computers have
rapidly increased, the possibilities for modeling traffic corresponding better to reality have also
increased. A noteworthy method for modeling is microscopic simulation of traffic, which can be used
for a variety of needs. In general it can be stated that the interest in microsimulation lies in short-term
functional studies rather than in the assessment of long-term needs. The design of concepts for traffic
management strategies, especially for main transport corridors and urban traffic systems, constitutes
a challenge for the user of microscopic simulation tools. In addition to practical project planning,
microscopic traffic simulation can also provide a tool for research. Detailed calculation of emissions is of
special interest in congested urban areas. Microscopic simulation of traffic provides comprehensive
methods for detailed assessment of emissions as each individual vehicle is recorded with respect to its
driving conditions and performance both in space and in time (speed, acceleration, deceleration).
HUTSIM is a Finnish microscopic simulation software developed by the Helsinki University of
Technology. Because it is rule based and object oriented, the operational comprehension of the software
can be expanded quite easily. In many Finnish projects, HUTSIM has been expanded to better suit
wide-scale applications. Development of emission analysis and lane-change models is described, as are
future development outlines concerning modeling human behavior and analyzing the level of service
using fuzzy methods.

Creating a Synthetic Household

Travel and Activity Survey
Rationale and Feasibility Analysis
S. P. Greaves and P. R. Stopher
S. P. Greaves, Louisiana State University, 102 Arlette Drive, Lafayette, LA 70503. P. R. Stopher, Louisiana Land
& Exploration Co., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803.

FULL
TEXT

Proposed is a new approach for developing the travel survey data required for use in local traveldemand models. Using readily available local sociodemographic information in conjunction with
a freely available national travel survey, a simulation procedure is described to create, in effect,
a synthetic household travel survey. The reasons for interest in such a procedure are outlined, including
the costs and difficulties associated with gathering high-quality travel data. Consideration is then given
to alternatives for local model development, such as the use of national data averages and borrowed
models. The simulation procedure is then described and tested in a region that has recently completed a
travel survey; this provides a direct source of comparison of the merit of the approach. Trip production
models are then built using the synthetic data set. The case study results show that the synthetic data
(a) offer significant improvements over the use of borrowed models and (b) estimate new models that
are similar to those same models estimated using the local travel survey data. It is concluded that these
results show that the approach has considerable promise. Finally, some future directions are described,
including the planned extension of the approach to other regions.

Picking Publics Properly

An Artful Science
Philancy Sarra Comeau and Donald A. Rodriguez
P. S. Comeau, 10649 Upton Street, Northglenn, CO 80234. D. A. Rodriguez, Department of Natural Resource Recreation and
Tourism, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1480.

FULL
TEXT

Choosing appropriate publics in the life cycle of an issue is a critical component for a successful public
involvement program. The research presented provides an exploratory analysis of 15 public
involvement experts experiences, attitudes, and beliefs about this critical process. What factors
do experts consider when choosing publics for participation in management decisions? What
characteristics of the public and outside influences should be considered? How do experts determine a
publics type and level of involvement? How do experts determine what stage an issue reached in its life
cycle? Do these concepts, if not addressed properly during the decision process, lead to unsuccessful
public participation programs? Four generalizations were developed from this exploratory analysis:
(a) experts attempt to be as inclusive as possible when choosing publics based on a publics perceived
salience and interest in an issue and group composition; (b) issue development directly affects how
experts choose publics for public involvement processes; (c) issue development occurs through various
communication methods driven by affected values and beliefs; and (d ) improper choices of publics for
public involvement processes can lead to failure. A public involvement model is proposed that illustrates
the effects of issue development and level of involvement on these processes. Management implications
include a necessity to understand how the issue is developing; which underlying affected values and
beliefs are driving current communication activities; and the various publics perspectives regarding
their level of involvement and preferred participation level.

Public Involvement in Transportation

Planning in the Washington, D.C., Region
Report on an Assessment
Scott Graves and Sean Casey
ICF Consulting, 9300 Lee Highway, Fairfax, VA 22031.

FULL
TEXT

In the summer and autumn of 1998, the National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB)
sponsored an independent study by a team led by ICF Kaiser (now ICF Consulting) to assess its public
involvement program for transportation planning carried out in the Washington, D.C., region. The
Washington regions metropolitan planning organization was one of the first to commission an
assessment of its public involvement efforts as required under the Intermodal Surface Transportation
Efficiency Act of 1991. The purpose was to provide an overall assessment of TPBs public involvement
program and recommend options for improvement. The assessment was conducted in three phases. The
first phase was to review public involvement efforts in the Washington region and, for comparative
purposes, other selected metropolitan regions across the United States. The second phase was to
interview knowledgeable stakeholders on public involvement in the Washington region. The final phase
was to prepare a report presenting findings and recommendations to the TPB based on the efforts from
the first two phases. The final report was organized under the umbrella of four overarching themes:
(a) strengthen outreach to stakeholders and the public; (b) enhance access to information; (c) improve
the publics understanding of TPB responsibilities; and (d ) either discontinue or enhance the citizens
advisory committee. Although the first three themes are familiar to strengthening many public
involvement programs, the fourth is somewhat new and surprising, especially given the prevalence of
such bodies.

Propensity to Work from Home

Modeling Results from the 1995 Nationwide
Personal Transportation Survey
Joshua Drucker and Asad J. Khattak
Department of City and Regional Planning, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 3140 New East Building,
Chapel Hill, NC 27599.

FULL
TEXT

Working from home is regaining its popularity because of the advantages it presents for both employees
and employers. Telecommunications technologies are enabling the new work-at-home phenomena. This
study expands the existing body of work-at-home and telecommuting research by using data from
the 1995 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey to consider a larger sample and to include
characteristics unavailable in previous analyses. The effects of socioeconomic, household, locational,
and accessibility variables on individuals choices to work from home are estimated with ordered logit,
ordered probit, and multinomial logit models, using a two-equation sample selection regression process.
The three models give very similar results. They indicate that educational attainment and the presence
of small children in the household encourage frequent working from home. Males and drivers choose to
work from home more often than females or nondrivers, and the lack of free parking at work promotes
home work. These findings bear implications for trip-generation forecasting and suggest directions for
policies intended to influence commute travel.

Forecasting and Assessing the

Mobility Effects of Teleservices
Scenario Approach
M. J. Martens and W. Korver
TNO Inro, P.O. Box 6041, 2600 JA Delft, Netherlands.

FULL
TEXT

The information society is approaching; everything will change. New technology could enable
commuters to decrease their number of physical trips. As a result of all kinds of new information and
communication technology (ICT) services, it will be possible to live in the countryside and remain
working in the city, 200 km (124 mi) away. The literature, especially scientific and empirical sources,
however, tempers these expectations. The effects are limited, and there could be substantial side effects
in the opposite direction, which could nullify the substitution effect. Given the discrepancies between
expectations, one of the most important aspects of forecasting teleservices is uncertainty. This high
uncertainty combined with high expectations often results in quasiaccurate forecasts or oversimplified
speculation. The most important restriction in the many forecasts is the lack of complete and consistent
future scenarios. A study that tried to address these restrictions by developing a scenario approach
is reported. The approach is elaborated, using telecommuting as a case study. The studys main
conclusion is the confirmation that it is possible and useful to incorporate ICT services such as
telecommuting into a scenario approach. The outcomes have additional value compared with estimates
from literature because the magnitude of possible effects is considered instead of quasiaccurate
predictions, the estimates are based on realistic and consistent societal scenarios, and the use of an
operational transport model makes it possible to include second-order effects such as induced travel.

Microsimulation Model of Activity-Travel

Patterns and Traffic Flows
Specification, Validation Tests, and Monte Carlo Error
Jan Veldhuisen, Harry Timmermans, and Loek Kapoen
J. Veldhuisen and H. Timmermans, Urban Planning Group, Eindhoven University of Technology, P.O. Box 513,
Mail Station 20, 5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands. L. Kapoen, Department of Geography, University of Amsterdam,
1018 VZ Amsterdam, Netherlands.

FULL
TEXT

Discussed are results pertaining to the application of the Ramblas microsimulation model to predict
activity-travel patterns and traffic flows. The validity of the model, which is deliberately based on
nationally available time use data, is tested using different national, provincial, and regional data sets.
In addition, an analysis of Monte Carlo error is performed. The results of the analyses indicate that the
microsimulation model is capable of successfully predicting regional aggregate activity patterns on the
basis of a simple set of principles and that the influence of Monte Carlo error on the aggregate results is
negligible.

ALBATROSS
Multiagent, Rule-Based Model of Activity Pattern Decisions
Theo Arentze, Frank Hofman, Henk van Mourik, and Harry Timmermans
T. Arentze and H. Timmermans, Urban Planning Group/EIRASS, Eindhoven University of Technology, P.O. Box 513, Mail Station 20,
5600 MB, Eindhoven, Netherlands. F. Hofman and H. van Mourik, Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management,
P.O. Box 1031, 3000 BA, Rotterdam, Netherlands.

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The development of ALBATROSS: A Learning-Based, Transportation-Oriented Simulation System is

summarized. This activity-based model of activity-travel behavior is derived from theories of choice
heuristics that consumers apply when making decisions in complex environments. The model, one of the
most comprehensive of its kind, predicts which activities are conducted when, where, for how long, and
with whom, and the transport mode involved. In addition, various logical, temporal, spatial, spatialtemporal, and institutional constraints are incorporated in the model. The conceptual underpinnings of
the model, its architecture, the functionality of its key agents, data collection, and model performance
are discussed.

Selection of a Traffic Control Strategy for

Long-Range Travel Forecasting
Alan J. Horowitz and Sam Granato
A. J. Horowitz, University of WisconsinMilwaukee, P.O. Box 784, Milwaukee, WI 53201. S. Granato, Linn County Regional
Planning Commission, City Hall6th Floor, Cedar Rapids, IA 52401.

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The problem of determining the number and placement of signals on traffic networks for long-range
urban travel forecasting is addressed. An algorithm for determining the signalization strategy was
developed and given a large-scale test on the network for a metropolitan area of about 150,000 people.
The algorithm attempts to mimic the actions of traffic engineers as they make adjustment to the traffic
system over a long period of time. Tests indicate that the algorithm produces a network that closely
approximates one that has been optimized for vehicle hours traveled but still respects safety and
fairness issues. The algorithm is highly computational, so limits needed to be arbitrarily placed on the
precision of the traffic forecast, the precision of optimization steps, and the number of intermediate
forecast years.

On Modeling Departure-Time Choice for

Home-Based Social/Recreational and
Shopping Trips
Jennifer L. Steed and Chandra R. Bhat
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, ECJ 6.8, Austin, TX 78712.

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The existing literature on departure-time choice has primarily focused on work trips. Departure-time
choice for nonwork trips, which constitute an increasingly large proportion of urban trips, is examined.
Discrete choice models are estimated for home-based social/recreational and home-based shopping trips
using the 1996 activity survey data collected in the DallasFort Worth metropolitan area. The effects
of individual and household sociodemographics, employment attributes, and trip characteristics on
departure-time choice are presented and discussed. The results indicate that departure-time choice for
social/recreational trips and shopping trips is determined for the most part by individual or household
sociodemographics and employment characteristics, and to a lesser extent by trip level-of-service
characteristics. This suggests that departure times for social/recreational and shopping trips are not as
flexible as one might expect and are confined to certain times of day because of overall scheduling
constraints. Future methodological and empirical extensions of the current research are identified.