SUPPLY & DEMAND

GAP OF POWER
Case Study of Gujarat State

Submitted to : Prof Lalit Khurana

Submiited by : Sparshy Saxena (20081035)

Executive Summary
The report aims to study the demand and supply gap, with a special reference on the state of
Gujarat. The gap is seen in all aspects which include comparison of the present position of
Gujarat with the Indian average., which shows that Gujarat is better placed as compared with the
other states in terms of generation capacities (conventional and renewable), infrastructure and
efficiency. The report also observes the initiatives that are undertaken by the state in order to
overcome the demand shortage in the state. These initiatives include capacity additions, long
term procurement of power and efficiency parameters like Multi-Year Tariff system. Regulators
also play a role in the demand management on account of their policies and ability to control the
market.
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Table of Contents

Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................2
1. Introduction.........................................................................................................................................6
2. Objectives & Methodology.................................................................................................................7
3. Literature Review................................................................................................................................8
4. Overview of the Power Sector in India..............................................................................................11
5. Gujarat Scenario................................................................................................................................17
5.1 Market structure..............................................................................................................................17
5.2 Market Players.................................................................................................................................19
5.3 Tariff schema...................................................................................................................................22

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6. Demand & Supply Scenario..............................................................................................................23
6.1 All – India Scenario.........................................................................................................................23
6.2 Gujarat Scenario..............................................................................................................................25
6.2.1 Consumer profile......................................................................................................................25
6.2. 2 Fuel profile – present & projected...........................................................................................26
6.2.3 Transmission Losses.................................................................................................................28
6.2.4 Future Demand projections.......................................................................................................30
6.3 Gujarat v/s Indian Average..............................................................................................................31
6.4 Reasons for the Gap.........................................................................................................................34
7. Strategies adopted by Gujarat government for Power Management..................................................35
7.1 Capacity additions...........................................................................................................................35
7.1.1 State & Private..........................................................................................................................35
7.2 Jyotigram Yojana.......................................................................................................................39
7.3 Energy Development.................................................................................................................40
8 Regulators.........................................................................................................................................41
8.1 Regulatory Policies..........................................................................................................................42
8.2 Observations....................................................................................................................................44
8.3 Role of Regulators in meeting Demand with Supply.......................................................................45
9 Findings.............................................................................................................................................48
10 Conclusion.....................................................................................................................................50
Bibliography..............................................................................................................................................51
Appendix 1................................................................................................................................................52
Appendix 2................................................................................................................................................53
Appendix 3................................................................................................................................................54
Appendix 4................................................................................................................................................55
Appendix 4

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FIGURE 1 : INDIAN POWER VALUE CHAIN............................................................................................................................12
FIGURE 2 : FUEL BREAK-UP OF POWER PLANTS – 2008.........................................................................................................13
FIGURE 3 : SECTORED CONTRIBUTION OF POWER – 2009.......................................................................................................14
FIGURE 4: REGULATORY STRUCTURE OF INDIA......................................................................................................................15
FIGURE 5 : REGULATORY HEIRARCHY OF INDIA....................................................................................................................16
FIGURE 6 : MARKET STRUCTURE - PRE-REFORM.....................................................................................................................18
FIGURE 7 : MARKET STRUCTURE - POST REFORM...................................................................................................................18
FIGURE 8: COMPANY LIST AS PER BUSINESS DISTRIBUTION.......................................................................................................20
FIGURE 9 : LOADING PROFILE OF GETCO...........................................................................................................................21
FIGURE 10 : POWER REQUIREMENT ACROSS DIFFERENT POWER REGIONS.....................................................................................23
FIGURE 11 : GUJARAT- CONSUMER PROFILE..........................................................................................................................25
FIGURE 12 : GROWTH OF GENERATION CAPACITIES.................................................................................................................26
FIGURE 13 : GUJARAT - FUEL PROFILE PRESENT....................................................................................................................27
FIGURE 14 : GUJARAT - FUEL PROFILE PROJECTED..................................................................................................................28
FIGURE 15 : POWER INPUT..................................................................................................................................................29
FIGURE 16 : POWER RELEASED............................................................................................................................................29
FIGURE 17 : OVERALL TRANSMISSION LOSS............................................................................................................................29
FIGURE 18 : FUTURE DEMAND PROJECT - END OF 12TH FIVE YEAR PLAN...................................................................................30
FIGURE 19 : ELECTRICITY SECTOR IN GUJARAT (2000).........................................................................................................31
FIGURE 20 : PEAK DEMAND COMPARISON.............................................................................................................................32
FIGURE 21 : OVERALL DEMAND COMPARISON........................................................................................................................32
FIGURE 22 : GROWTH OF CAPACITY ADDITIONS - ELEVENTH FIVE YEAR PLAN.............................................................................36
FIGURE 23 : CONTRIBUTION SHARES OF POWER SUPPLY IN THE STATE.......................................................................................37
Figure 23 : Contribution shares of power supply in the State

TABLE 1: DETAILS OF PREVALENT REGULATED TARIFF IN GUJARAT..........................................................................................22

TABLE 2 : POWER STATISTICS IN THE 11TH PLAN.................................................................................................................23
TABLE 3 : T&D LOSSES - INDIAN AVERAGE.........................................................................................................................31
Table 3 : T&D losses - Indian average

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 1. Introduction
The power sector plays an important role in the economy of any country. the per capita
consumption determines the industrial development of a country.

India, as a whole nation, faces an overall shortage, with more specific emphasis on the Northern
and the Western regions. The gap is visible from relevant government surveys and is seen to be
progressively increasing. The government has taken steps in order to ensure that gap is bridged.
The government has tried its efforts at attracting private investment in the country. It aims at
increasing the amount of private players in the country, indicating a different trend as opposed to
the conventional government monopoly. It has framed adequate policies like the passing of the
Electricity Act 2003, National Electricity Plan which have proved to be instrumental and
influential in changing the power market since reform. They have been able to open up the
monopolized market to inter-state interaction, private participation, special emphasis on rural
consumers and rural electrification. It is seen that inspite of extensive government measures, the
demand and supply gap exists in the country. Hence, it is essential that the gap is studied.

This report has a special focus on the state of Gujarat. Statistics reveal that Gujarat is a better
performer as compared to the other states in India, in terms of T&D losses, building on the
generating capacities and the gap. It shows a better performance even in terms of the
effectiveness of the regulations implemented. I am studying the phenomenon of this gap in detail
and the shortfalls in the correctional measures that are yet to be resolved.

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 2. Objectives & Methodology
Since the report deals with studying the state of Gujarat with respect to the supply and demand gap in
comparison with the overall Indian scenario, the following objectives can be formulated :

• Identify demand and supply gap in the power market of Gujarat

• Identify possible factors responsible for the gap

• Offer a probable suggestion to shorten the gap

The report has adopted the following methodology.

Data Collection Method

1) Secondary Sources
a. Research papers
b. Relevant books
c. Relevant government publications
2) Primary Data
a. Semi-structured interview with government officers

Analysis Tools

The report uses simple analytical tools like Pie diagrams, bar charts, ratios.

Limitations

1) Use of secondary resources

2) Confined scope of work
3) Time constraints

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 1. Literature Review
This chapter attempts to understand the relevant work done by other people like academicians.

1. Impact of Power Sector Reforms on Technology, Efficiency and Emissions: Case Study of
Gujarat, India
P.R. Shukla, Debashish Biswas, Tirthankar Nag,Amee Yajnik, Thomas Heller and David G. Victor,
(2005)

The study examines the impact of the power sector reforms on the electricity generation industry
at the state level in India through a case study of the state of Gujarat. The state has been selected
as a unit of study to bring out the regional variances that are not captured at a more aggregate or
country level study. The study finds that the reforms have led to the emergence of various
ownership structures with associated changes in fuel mix and technology. There has been a
steady improvement in the efficiency of generation with reduction in carbon intensities. The
carbon intensities so obtained are then used for construction of a baseline for the state, which is
then projected up to the year 2010. The study reports a considerable decline in the baseline,
which is expected to touch 0.18 Kg per kWh in 2010.. With the projected growth in the share of
imported coal and natural gas, the dominance of domestic coal based generation is projected to
decline and the state is expected to proceed along a path of declining carbon intensities.

2. The Political Economy of Indian Power Sector Reforms

Rahul Tongia, (2008)

The paper emphasizes on the effect of the government policies on the prevailing power industry.
It depicts the falling out of the government initiatives and the federal strucutre on the basis of
financial strength, market roadblocks all leading to the deterioration of the industry. It briefs us
about eh various measures taken in light of the above problems like delicensing, open access and

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elimination of the Single Buyer model within the industry. It considers future options which
could be helpful in bringing about a change in the industry scenario.

3. Captive Power Plants – Case study of Gujarat, India

P R Shukla, Debasis Biswas, Tirthankar Nag (2004)

While the power sector in India has witnessed success stories in the last 4-5 years, the road that
lies ahead of us is dotted with innumerable challenges that result from the gaps that exist
between what’s planned versus what the power sector has been able to deliver. This document
highlights and quantifies some of these gaps and attempts to analyze the problem. The document
builds on the risks prevalent in the industry, some prominent hurdles that the power sector has
already crossed, and more importantly - others that various players have to overcome.
Understanding these core issues & risks of the power sector help in identifying the opportunities
that lie ahead; for example why is private sector participation an important requirement. A short
peek at our past performances indicate that during the last three five year plans (8th, 9 th and
10th), we have barely managed to achieve half of the capacity addition that was planned. As we
enter the third year of the 11th five year plan, we have already seen slippages on the planned
approx. 79 GW capacity addition.

4. Managing Power Demand

Manisha Jain, Vikas Gaba, Leena Srivastava (2007)

The paper deals with the demand management measures taken, in reference to the region of
Delhi. It describes the demand and supply gap in the region over a period of few years. With the
help of a survey of a 1000 households, it attempts to understand the usage pattern of the

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designated area, in terms of the appliances used. It utilizes this information to develop demand
reduction strategies and the effective cost of these strategies and the impact they would have on
the demand.

The papers cited above discuss various issues related to the power sector. They discuss the
regulatory issues like post and pre-reform structure of the Indian power sector. It also discusses
issues like future opportunities in the sector which can bring efficiency in the industry. The
papers also discuss about the scope of captive power plants in providing the required supply in
order to bridge the gap. It also discusses a case study of power demand in Delhi, which has been
taken as a reference for some part of the data required. With the restricted literature review, it
can be said that no direct study has been done relating to a power gap in the region of Gujarat.
Hence, my study will hold relevance in the area of study.

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 2. Overview of the Power Sector in India
As the Indian economy continues to surge ahead, its power sector is also expanding concurrently
to support the growth rate. The demand for power is growing exponentially and the scope of
growth in this sector is immense.

The Indian power market is characterized by volatile relationship between the supply and
demand of power as well as the virginity of the regulated environment. The virginity of the
regulated environment is due to the radical changes in the industry structure post the
implementation of the Electricity Act in 2003.

Prior to 2003 the market was characterized by vertical integration with the state electricity
boards forming a monopoly and excessive price regulation. Each state’s electricity board was
responsible for generation, transmission and distribution within its own jurisdiction. The
inhibitors to growth in power sector were many—small and big but the main roadblock in the
growth path was Government Policy, which made it difficult or rather impossible for a private
player to enter. This further aggravated the problem that Indian entrepreneurs didn’t have
enough knowledge and experience in developing power projects. Further on, the SEBs turned
loss making and inefficient. They became financially weak to propel any future expansion or
growth in the sector.

In the wake of the growing power needs and the continuous surplus-shortage situations faced in
various parts of the country, the government introduced Electricity Act 2003 for restructuring of
the power sector and to introduce competition and increase efficiency. It delicensed generation,
recognized trading as a separate licensed activity and introduced open access in T&D. as the
amount of losses are high in the power distribution vertical, schemes like APDRP were
implemented to reduce the amount of T&D losses. The industry also became more consumer-

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oriented with the setting up of grievance redressal forums and bringing operational efficiency in
order to make the commodity relatively less cheaper to the end consumer. Moreover, it paved
way for private participation which brought about a radical change to the face of the industry.

The Power Value Chain

The power industry is divided into three verticals.

1) Electricity generation
2) Electricity Transmission
3) Electricity distribution

The power value chain can be pictorially depicted as given below.

Figure 1 : Indian Power Value Chain

Source: Author

The entire transfer of power from the generating station to the end consumer involves changing
of frequency to suit the varied end consumer needs. The power is dispensed to the various
consumers depending on their voltage requirement. Till the feeding of the power into the grid,
technical looses are high, which gets clubbed with theft to constitute AT&C losses in the

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distribution part. AT&C losses are as high in the 32% in India, owing primarily to bad metering
systems and electricity theft.

The generating stations are Central owned (Central Generating Stations), State owned or
privately owned or JVs with varying types of ownership patterns. Electricity generated herefrom
is transmitted from these stations through transmission lines of varying voltages, and then
distributed through networks in various areas.

Upon transfer to the main sub-station, the power is fed into the distribution grids of the country.
On the basis of the distribution grids, India is geographically divided in five regions, namely
Northern, Eastern, Western, North-Eastern and Southern(Soonee, 2006). All the states and the
union territories fall under either of these regions. The first four of the grids operate in a
synchronous mode, which implies that the power across these regions can flow seamlessly as per
the relative load generation. The Southern region is interconnected with the rest of the India grid
through asynchronous links. This implies that the quantum and direction of power flow between
the Southern grid and rest of India grid can be manually controlled (Pandey, November 2007).

Let us see the different facts of the Indian power sector, in a very short brief.

The following table gives a snapshot of the total projects in the country as per the type of fuel to
be used and the ownership of the various plants.

Figure 2 : Fuel break-up of Power Plants – 2008

Source : MoP, 2008

As seen above, the 11th plan still shows dependence over the use of coal and lignite to about
69%. On comparison with the previous plan layout, the capacity additions have been increased.

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The percentage allocation of capacity additions by the fuel type used is done on the basis of the
feasibility of fuel availability. Since the availability of coal is easier and he plants seem to have a
high and secure number of linkages for coal with the suppliers, a higher percentage is allocated
to coal. The uncertainty related with gas supply/LNG imports has restricted the capacity addition
through gas/LNG to 2114 MW. The measures stated above for bridging the demand-supply gap
are estimated without taking into account the capacity addition be merchant power plants.

The following table gives a break-up of the ownership pattern of these projects.

Figure 3 : Sectored contribution of Power – 2009

Source: Report of Working Group on Power for Eleventh Plan, 2007)

As seen above, the share of central is higher than both the state as well as the private players, at
present, discarding the future investments. Hence, it can be said that the CGS contributes a lot to
the power supply in the country. It can be seen from the above profile of capacity addition plan
that central sector will play a lead role with capacity addition of more than half of the capacity
addition target. There has been a good response from states on the need for capacity addition to
meet their growing demand and the states with IPPs, have been earmarked the balance capacity
for execution. The State owned capacity projected for the 11th Plan is 33.4 % of the total plan as
compared to 27% likely during 10th Plan.
Efforts are also on to include renewable energy sources by increasing the share of wind,
biomass, hydro and solar plants to 13,500 MW in the subsequent Year Plans (Power, 2007).

Regulators

The Electricity segment lies in the Concurrent list; hence it is subject to modifications from both, the
Central and the State government. Hence, the role of the regulators cannot be sidelined. Prior to the

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 market reform, the sector was heavily inundated by the government. Even after the implementation of
reforms, the sector remains governed to a certain extent by the government. The below diagram gives the
entire regulatory picture of the sector.

Ministry of Power – Planning, Policy formulation, Project processing, Training & Development of Human Resources

RITY: Decides on the Demand & Supply of the area. Hence, the capacities to be added are decided by the regulator. It acts as the implementation body of the p

Generator Transmission & Distribution

for operations, streamlines sector through reforms PGCIL

SSIONS : Regulation of tariffs, Decision of operational parameters, implementation of codes and reforms as per: Controls the interstate transmission and electric
the state needs.

System
Decision on the capacity constraints and operation through bodies like NLDC-RLDC-SLDC
additions

Figure 4: Regulatory Structure of India

Source: Author

The following figure gives us the hierarchy of the regulating bodies in the market.

Figure 5 : Regulatory Heirarchy of India

Source: Author

The Ministry of Power and Electricity Regulatory Commissions (Centre and State) are the two
bodies which are involved in the imposing, monitoring and specifying the rules and norms in the

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market. They are the principal ministries. These two bodies work in conjunction with various
other bodies like;

1) CEA – R&D unit of the power sector

2) Load Despatch Centers – System operators
3) PGCIL – Monitoring of the inter-state transmissions
4) Government Utilities – Involved in Generation, Transmission, Distribution

The policies are formulated at the government level, Ministry of Power. These policies and acts
are implemented with the aid of the CEA. Demand data, forecasts and other specifications from
CEA are utilized and acts are enacted.

Post-reform, the acts that have been enacted are;

1) Electricity Act 2003

2) National Tariff Policy
3) National Electricity Plan (Rural Electrification)

1. Gujarat Scenario
Gujarat is one of the most developed states in India in terms of industry. The per capita
electricity consumption in Gujarat in 2000 has been 835 units compared to the all-India average
of 355 units. The total installed generation capacity has been 8582 MW in 2000. However, the
state suffers a peak energy deficit of 11.5 per cent(Shukla, 2005). This shortage is being met by
restricting three-phase supply to the rural areas for four hours, and recess and holiday staggering.
In addition, a two-hour power cut has been imposed on non-continuous processing units. Gujarat
has achieved a high degree of rural electrification and made electricity available to almost all
people in the state. Due to rapid industrialization, the per capita consumption of power has
grown at a rate much faster than the national average.

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Gujarat is an energy deficit state and in recent years, the average energy deficit has crossed the
national average. The energy deficit of around 5 percent in 1997 touched almost 10 percent in
2000. Two consecutive years of drought (in 1999 and 2000) have led to a high agricultural
demand due to increased load on the pumping systems as the water table has receded. In
addition, these later years have been marked by a fall in the hydro generation.

5.1 Market structure

The way that the power industry operates cannot be differentiated region wise. The underlying
principle is the same.

The demand is assessed by a competent authority for a particular region, assuming region A. as
per the demand in that area, the distribution system is set in place. In order to suffice the
demand, the authority then decides and plans on the source of supply or a generator. It also plans
on the connectivity between the source and the distribution system by setting up a transmission
system.

The implementation of the Electricity Act 2003 has been a viable instrument in bringing about a
structural change in the market structure of Gujarat. Prior to the implementation, the industry
was dominated by state government, GEB, which acted as a vertically integrated company
catering to generation, transmission and distribution of power to the consumers. (Tongia, 2003)

Figure 6 : Market structure - pre-reform

Source: Impact of Power sector reforms on Technology, Efficiency & Emission; P R Shukla (2005)

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As seen above, the industry was dominated by a government monopoly. This led to various
issues like lesser efficiency, lack of a competitive marketplace, monopolistic behavior and lesser
focus on the consumer.

The figure below gives the market structure of power industry in Gujarat, after the
implementation of the Electricity Act 2003.

Figure 7 : Market structure - post reform

Source: Impact of Power sector reforms on Technology, Efficiency & Emission; P R Shukla (2005)

5.2 Market Players

Power generation in the state is carried out mainly by GEB, which is vertically integrated and
caters to almost the entire state, except for the areas served by the licensees. GEB accounts for
more than half the installed capacity. The federal government and the private sector cater to the
rest. Gujarat State Electricity Corporation Limited (GSECL) has been created as a subsidiary of
GEB with 50 per cent participation from the Gujarat State Government. GSECL manages two
units of GEB and handles the GEB projects.

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Gujarat Industries Power Company Limited (GIPCL) follows a cooperative structure and has
been incorporated as a joint sector company to supply electricity to its promoting group of
companies, which include GEB, Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd., Gujarat Alkalies &
Chemicals Limited, and Petrofils Cooperative Limited. The promoting group holds a share of 68
percent. Around 9 percent shares are held by various federal and state organizations. The federal
organizations include Gas Authority of India Limited and Department of Atomic Energy (DAE).
The government of Gujarat and its subsidiaries holds the state share. Financial institutions,
banks, public, and other organizations hold the rest 20 percent.
The federal sector consists of two plants of NTPC viz. Kawas, Gandhar, and a single nuclear
power plant, Kakrapar, functioning under the DAE. The electricity generated from these plants is
provided to the state through the central transmission utility according to the allocations fixed for
the state by the centre.
In the private sector, there are three players, AEC, Essar Power Limited (EPL) and Gujarat
Paguthan Energy Corporation (GPEC), which was formerly promoted by Powergen. AEC is a
private licensee, which is responsible for generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity
for the cities of Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar. EPL has a part of its capacity (215 MW)
earmarked for its group company Essar Steel Ltd. and the rest it supplies to GEB (300 MW).
GPEC supplies power to GEB only. Apart from these companies, Gujarat Power Corporation
Limited (GPCL) has been established by the State Government to attract power projects. It does
not play a role in the operation of generation plants.

The transmission grid in the state is maintained by GEB. It allows transmission of power from
generating companies and to private distribution companies after payment of the wheeling
charges. Recently Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCO) has been established to
look after the state transmission sector. It is expected to take full control of the transmission
sector after unbundling of GEB. The private sector is also encouraged to set up transmission
lines and equipment to be operated by GEB. A small transmission system is maintained by AEC
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for its own licensed area. Apart from GEB, Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. (PGCIL), the
federal transmission utility in India, looks after the linkages with the regional grid and
interregional power transfer. The evacuation of electricity from the federal plants and the supply
to the state grid is also controlled by PGCIL. The distribution sector is managed almost entirely
by GEB. The two private licensees, AEC and SEC manage the distribution in their licensed area.
AEC caters mainly to Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar and the adjoining areas while SEC does the
same for Surat.
UT
Central
Subsidiaries
Holding -
Company
PGCIL
Plants
IPPs
CPPs
Wind
MGVCL
GUVNL
UGCVL
DGVCL
GSECL
GETCO
PGVCL

The above structure can be also be understood as :

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Figure 8: Company list as per business distribution

Source : Author

As seen above, GEB was unbundled into four different companies. , were given independent
responsibilities within the sector, such as generation, bulk purchase and sale, distribution. Being
a large state, four companies were entrusted with the task of distribution in four different regions
(North, Central, West and South) of the state.

GETCO accepts load from all the above contributors mentioned below it. The percentage
contribution of these sources to the power supply of Gujarat can be given as;

Figure 9 : Loading profile of GETCO

Source : ARR report - GETCO (2008-09)

The various sources mentioned above are in line with the policy decisions made for the state.
POWERGRID Corporation India Limited supplies power to the sate as representative of the
Central government. Every Five Year Plan allocates some power to be allotted to every region
from Central utilities present in that state as a part of their mandatory quota completion. Hence,
PGCIL completes that requirement by supplying about 23% of the total supply. The Union
Territories of Daman Diu and Dadra & Nagar Haveli contribute to the load system in the state,
though a miniscule amount of 5%. These territories get their share of power allocated from the
Central generating stations which is routed through GETCO. Hence, it is included as a
contributor to the load system in the state. Renewable comprise of a fair amount of about 14%.
(Authority, 2008)

Besides government players, Torrent Power Limited, regulated by GERC, is also authorized to
cater to the cities of Ahmedabad and Surat. It is a vertically integrated company and holds
distribution licenses in the cities mentioned afore.

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5.3 Tariff schema
The tariff is regulated for the above mentioned generators by the GERC. They are;

Company Tariff Consumer segment

Discoms Rs. 3.44 + 0.62 (Fuel Surcharge) Agricultural
Torrent Power Limited Rs. 3.88 + 0.78 (Fuel Surcharge) Urban
Table 1: Details of prevalent regulated tariff in Gujarat

Source :

As seen above, the government discoms cater to agricultural needs. Hence the tariff fixed for
these companies is less. However, with a view on profits, these companies, excluding the fuel
surcharge, have a better price realization than Torrent Power Limited (Commission, 2009).

Other private players in the generation vertical include NMDC, GSEG, Essar etc.

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 2. Demand & Supply Scenario
This chapter deals with the demand and supply scenario, on a country level and then on the
individual state level of Gujarat.

6.1 All – India Scenario

India operates on a deficit of 9%-10%. In the 11th Year Plan, the capacity addition is slated to be
around 78,700 MW, increasing to about 100,000 MW in the 12th Year Plan.

All the data presented below does not include the quantum of captive generation.

As per the Eleventh Plan (2007-2012), (Power, 2007), there are the following requirements;

Energy Requirement 1038 BU

Peak Load 151,648 MW
Spinning Reserve 5%
Envisaged Capacity Addition 72,000 MW
Actual needed addition 68,869 MW
Table 2 : Power Statistics in the 11th Plan

Source: MoP, 2007

Reviewing the Indian scenario in light of the five regional grids, the following table gives the
power demand required and met during the previous fiscal year.

Figure 10 : Power requirement across different power regions

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Source : CEA, 2009

As seen above, in spite of the various measures taken by the government to overcome the gap
like captive generation, enhanced incentives for capacity addition investments, Availability
based Tariff (ABT), there exists a profound gap between the requirements and the supply
provided. As seen above, the Southern and Eastern regions show a relatively lesser deficit as
compared to the other regions, with the western region clocking the highest deficit. With the
Southern region operating on a relatively different frequency, the Eastern region shows a higher
efficiency of generation as well lesser commercial losses.

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6.2 Gujarat Scenario
The total installed capacity of Gujarat, including its share from the Centre government’s power
plants, was 12,492 MW, as on May 2009. Additional capacity of 10,000 MW is expected to be
created during the 11th plan, by 2012. In 2008-09, nearly 12.3 consumers in the state consumed
about 45,100 million units of energy1 (Authority, 2009).

6.2.1 Consumer profile

Carry forwarding from the distribution, the end consumer profiles, as of 2005, can be given

Figure 11 : Gujarat- consumer profile

Source: ARR Report - GETCO (2008-09)

The above mentioned consumer profile is in sync with 2005. Prior to that, the whole market
structure was different as to the one prevalent now.

The generation vertical was monopolized by the government, hence had only one prominent
player, GEB with an established capacity of 3878 MW(Shukla, 2005). The transmission and the
distribution verticals were monopolized by the state electricity board, GEB. However, the end
consumer profiles were more or less the same, with the Industrial and Agricultural sectors
showing variations. The Industrial sector had a demand of about 48% and the Agricultural sector
had a demand of about 33% (Shukla, 2005). The substantial decrease of the industrial demand
could be due to the increased promotion of captive generation or captive Power plants (CPPs).
The point could be validated by the fact that the captive capacities have risen by almost 150% to
a level of 2.7 GW till the year 2006 (Hansen, 2007). These captive capacities contribute to
almost 50% of the industrial demand, corresponding to the quantum of drop in the demand of the
sector in question.

1 The generation capacities, future and Present have been annexed as Appendix 1 and Appendix 2

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Figure 12 : Growth of generation capacities

Source: Biswas, Shukla, Nag (2005)

The figure above gives the growth of generation capacities as per the ownership that further
substantiates the effect of CPP on demand. After 1997, the growth of CPP shows a drastic
increase (P.R. Shukla, 2004) which corresponds to the reduction in demand.

6.2. 2 Fuel profile – present & projected

Most of the plants in Gujarat are yet dominated by Coal, though the use of gas has shown an
increased presence. The following chart gives the Fuel profile of the state.

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Figure 13 : Gujarat - Fuel profile present

Source : Author

The above chart gives the fuel profile of the state by plant usage. The profile still shows the
dependency on coal/Lignite, though mostly by the government sector. This shows that the
existing central utilities that have been running on conventional fuel since their inception have
not undergone a change in technology and have neither invested in brownfield projects which
might use newer fuels like gas. Also, coal being a cheaper option, it is more favored.

Gas shows an increased usage among the plants, wherein a majority is being invested by IPPs.
Though gas has a higher capex than coal, the pressure of being environment conscious had
driven the utilities to turn towards gas as an option. Not being shadowed by the government
hood, and profits being a major part of their decision making, gas had increased usage as it
provides better efficiency in plants, almost increased by 25% as per the conventional fuel, coal.

Figure 14 : Gujarat - fuel profile projected

Source : CEA, 2009

2
The above chart gives a fuel profile for capacity additions envisaged till 2012. The additions are
heavily dependent on coal. The usage of coal spans heavily across both the government and the
private sector.

6.2.3 Transmission Losses

Transmission losses are calculated as difference between the energy received and energy sent out
of the grid (Commission, 2009). The following tables give a snapshot of the sources from which
the energy is received, energy is sent out and the total difference, which spells the gap between
the both, leading to losses in the state.

Generating plants MUs Received

GEB – GESCL 25,946
IPP 11,395
CPP 768
Central sector projects 17,400
Non-conventional energy sources 2,219
Total Energy received 57,728
Figure 15 : power input

Procured by MUs sent out

GUVNL 4,660
DGVCL 9,916
MGVCL 7,065
UGVCL 13,314
PGVCL 18,298
DD & DNH 2,163

1
Auxiliary Consumption 11
Total Energy sent out 55,247
Figure 16 : power released

Particulars
Total Energy received (MUs) 57,728
Total Energy sent (MUs) 55,247
Transmission Loss (MUs) 2,481
Transmission Loss (%) 4.30

Figure 17 : overall transmission loss

Source 1 : ARR Report - GERC (2008-09)

The above tables give an estimate of the grid management of the state. These figures are for the
time period of the year of 2008-09. The transmission loss for this length amounts to around 4.3%
(Commission, 2009). The reasons are discussed in the following chapters.

6.2.4 Future Demand projections

Future projections indicate that the rapid increase in demand is going to continue (Shukla, 2005).

Figure 18 : Future demand project - end of 12th five year plan

Source : Author

The above graph shows that the demand is slated to increase exponentially, reaching about 300
TWh at the end of the 12th Five Year plan.

1
Despite new capacity additions, the percentage gap between energy supply and demand has
remained almost constant for utilities. This suggests that the increase in capacity is not able to
keep pace with the increase in demand. The peak demand also follows a similar a similar trend.

6.3 Gujarat v/s Indian Average

The table below gives the comparative analysis between the Indian and the Gujarat electricity
industry.

Figure 19 : Electricity sector in Gujarat (2000)

As stated earlier, Gujarat has a higher per capita consumption as compared to the national
average (Shukla, 2005). The T&D losses can be further detailed on a yearly basis as follows;

Year

1
2003-2004 24.20%

2004-2005 30.43%

2005-2006 27.91%

2006-2007 24.87%
Table 3 : T&D losses - Indian average

Source : ARR Report - GERC (2008-09)

These are the national values of the amount of T&D losses of the country. The figure of Gujarat
stands somewhere around 32%, higher than the average. The energy deficit is also comparatively
higher.

The tables for the statistics for demand, both off-peak and peak for Gujarat and all over India,
are annexed as Annexure 3 and 4.

Let us take a comparative look at these statistics.

Figure 20 : Peak demand comparison

Source : Author

The above graph gives a comparison between the peak demands of Gujarat and India as a whole.
The deficit here is represented as a percentage of the actual requirement by the region for the
period of March 2009 to March 2010. As seen, Gujarat falls way below the total national deficit.

Figure 21 : Overall demand comparison

Source: Author

In case of an overall demand, it still falls below the national levels, however showing a steep
increase during the period from November 2009 to March 2010. The demand is affected by
seasonal variations as well. Hence, the varied demands could be due to the seasonal demand

1
from the end consumers which include increased warming appliances in late 2009 and cooling
appliances in the early periods of 2010.

It is interesting to note that the pattern of variations is similar in trend to that of the national
values, however with varying frequencies.

In respect with the Western region, the following facts can be deduced :

• The state of Gujarat contributes an average of 30.1% to the total supply of power
disseminated in the Western region.
• As per the power conditions of the region, the deficit of Gujarat contributes to about
7.4% to the total deficit of the Western region, which averages to about 2980 MU for the
past year as compared to 243 MU for the state of Gujarat.

6.4 Reasons for the Gap

Reasons for the supply demand gap can be enlisted as follows:
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1) The demand outstrips the potential supply of the state.
The outstripping of the demand is mainly due to lesser capacities and the transmission
losses that occur within the state.
As for increasing the capacities, the government is taking measures to increase the
capacities as stated in the above chapters.
The transmission losses occur due to the following reasons;
• Location of Utilities
The location between the generator and the distribution grid is linked with the
length of the transmission lines in between them. The transmission losses are
greater if the length of the lines is greater. This aspect points out to the proper
planning and distribution of utilities in the regions. The planning should be such
that they lie in tandem with the demand in that area and also feasible resource
supply, coupled with a god distribution grid in place. The primary solution is the
proper placing of the much required infrastructure.
• Demand Variations
The variations in demand also cause a fluctuation in the losses. Demand variation
causes a difference in the amount of power that is being drawn from the grid.
Demand could decrease due to the following reasons:
○ Seasonal variations
○ Availability of alternate sources of power
○ Consumer indifference due to inefficiency of the system

Planning for demand is essential in this case. Proper projections could be helpful
to a certain extent in this case.

1
 1. Strategies adopted by Gujarat government for Power
Management
On an all-India basis, the measures taken to bridge the supply demand gap are through capacity
additions envisaged in the five year plans. However, besides allotting power from the Centre,
planning is required at the state level as well.

Gujarat government has undertaken various measures to overcome the supply gap through the
below stated measures:
1) Capacity Additions
2) Jyotigram Yojana
3) Energy Development
4) Multi-Year Tariff

7.1 Capacity additions

7.1.1 State & Private

In lieu of the Centre’s Five Year plan capacity additions, the state government also adheres to
capacity additions as a primary resort to overcome the deficiency.
Post reform, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) decides on the forecasted demand for the
state, by the Electric Power Survey.
Based on the future projections of demand in the area, the state takes measures for increasing the
amount of power that is o be fed in the grid. These schemes for utilities could as Greenfield or
Brownfield projects. The following map gives the area and location of the government planned
and existing projects.
The rate at which the state attempts to add capacities to the region can be seen as follows;

Figure 22 : growth of capacity additions - Eleventh five year plan

Source : GEPL, 2010

1
The capacity of projects to be added is high in the alternate year periods, reaching to a total of
11,164 MU at the end of 2012.
As opposed to a total monopoly in the sector, introduction of private investments brings
efficiency and competition in the field.
The sector has seen a lot of private sector participation, with the delicensing of the generation
sector. The participation is autonomous in the generation vertical, while some companies are
regulated to participate in the transmission and distribution verticals. In case of Ahmedabad,
Torrent Power Limited is authorized to transmit and distribute electricity in the areas of
Ahmedabad and Surat.

The graph below gives the ownership pattern of the present ownership of plants.

Figure 23 : Contribution shares of power supply in the State

Source : GEPL, 2010

As seen above, the presence of private participation continues to be on the rise with participators
like Essar, Adani group, Torrent Power Limited. It also includes other government institutions
like GMDC, GSPC and GPCL.

2
The private participators bring efficiency to the market place. Since the competition increases, as
opposed to the one company’s pan presence in the entire chain, the players strive to achieve
operational efficiency. It helps them to reap in profits which improve their market position and
market capitalization.
From the consumer’s point of view, they are assured of uninterrupted supply and better service.
They are catered to in a better and optimal way.
On a macro level, the whole scenario also improves. The load is taken off the shoulders of the
government and hence, the task is executed efficiently. The gap can be abridged more easily and
more efficiently.

Vibrant Gujarat
Vibrant Gujarat has been a vital platform for bringing investments in the state. MoUs were
signed for providing capacity additions to the state during the conference. Details are as follows.
Out of all the MoUs signed, the power sector attracted a total investment of 211,895 crore, in the
various verticals of the sector. At an average capital cost of around Rs. 5 crore/MWh, the whole
investment leads to the capacity target of 42,379 MW.

Long-term arrangements

Recently the government has made arrangements with few companies for long term supply of
power to the state. The government has initiated bids on a competitive bidding basis from many
companies, including Shapoorji Pallonnji, Essar Power, Jindal Energy, Pipavav Energy, out of
which KSK Energy was awarded the right to supply long term power to GUVNL in order to
bridge the gap. This deal would supply about 1010 MW at a price of Rs. 2.34/unit (, 2010). The
tender floated by the company was for 3000 MW on a long-term basis.
These types of long term arrangements are cheap to source and ensure the much needed power
for the state.

2
7.2Jyotigram Yojana
The ‘Jyotigram Yojana’ has been initiated by the Gujarat government which provides 24-
hour 3-phase electricity to about 18,000 villages in the state. Data states that the entire
electrification of these villages was carried out within 1000 days with a budget of about
Rs.1290 crores. The scheme also aims at reducing the amount of transmission losses and
electricity theft by about 2.4%. Currently, the objectives completed are setting up of
transmission infrastructure including transmission lines, electric poles and transformers.

Gujarat is one of the 13 states that have proactively implemented the Rajiv Gandhi Gramin
Vidyut Yojana, and led to the reach of electricity to all of the rural households. In the year
2001, the status of Gujarat was that 80% of the villages were electrified, which increased to
100% in the year 2005 (Modi, 2005). The RGGVY was implemented on a national level, but
Gujarat was one of the forefront states to implement the scheme on a state level and fast-
track the development. The step has helped in uplifting the rural living standards. It has
created employment through the introduction of industries in the area and also made
available opportunities for human development through possible introduction of services like
IT and electronic media.

3
The scheme is essential in taking care of the demand from the rural sector. The move would
have to initiate the investors towards the generation and capacity addition vertical. This
would ultimately increase the power input and help in bridging the power gap. It also has a
significant contribution from the renewable energy sector, which indirectly leads to the
promotion of that sector as well.

7.3Energy Development
Gujarat has a high potential for the development of renewable energy sources. In tandem
with the available edge, the state has chosen to tap these resources accordingly.
It has a vision to pioneer the usage of clean sources of energy in order to counter the growing
global energy crisis.
The state has a mix of Solar, Wind and biomass generating stations, in majority. In addition
to the use of conventional fuel used, these sources provide the extra amount of power that is
used within the state. The government has state-specific policies to utilize these resources
efficiently.
The state of Gujarat has the highest wind power potential in the country of 9675 MW out of
which it has harnessed about 14% and it has policies in place to harness the rest.
The state receives high solar radiation levels with 300 days of clear sun. This potential is
enough to transform the state into a hub of Solar generation. Due to the open political will of
the state, Gujarat is slated to bag the biggest solar plant in the world of 5 GW capacity. Other
moves include building captive solar generation farms.
The various initiatives include the promotion of solar devices and increase in the number of
private wind generators.

3
8 Regulators
The following section gives an account of the regulators and their scope in the power industry.

The whole setup, as discussed earlier is divided into generating and T&D utilities. All the
internal operations are executed by these organizations. The internal transmission and
distribution are operated upon by STUs and state Discoms. In certain areas, private entities are
authorized to operate in the market, under regulation. The government generation utilities
control the state and government share of capacity additions.

State Transmission utilities (STUs) provide and regulate the transmission network. The
companies provide for the necessary grid network and their operations.

The load balancing is an essential part of the grid management aspect of the power sector.

The inter-state transmission of power is regulated by the PowerGrid Corporation of India

Limited. PGCIL provides the inter-state transmission infrastructure and regulates the
transmission charges.

3
These entities are all controlled by the State electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs), who
regulate the tariff and the operational level at which they should operate. These entities are
essential in deciding the state reforms and their implementation. They also carry out the
necessary audit of the companies (Dubash, 2005).

8.1 Regulatory Policies

The Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission (GERC) is the authority which is responsible for
regulatory monitoring in the state. With a view to meet the increasing demand by adequate
supply, the brief below describes the rules that the state has in place to tackle the power gap.

Tariff Regulation
The commissions regulate the tariffs of the utilities, which are under the hood of the
government. These include government entities and those private entities that have been licensed
to operate within the limits that they were awarded the bid for. These tariffs were earlier fixed on
a cost-plus basis. But as a move towards efficiency, the tariffs have now been fixed to a
performance trajectory based on the principle of a Multi-Year tariff system.

Open-Ended Generation Incentives

A state has both central and state generating utilities. On the regulatory front, demand forecasts
are issued by the CEA at a central level. As per these forecasts, the state government is required
to take initiatives regarding the capacity additions. The Center might take up this role, in case it
is approached by the state government. The UMPP (Ultra Mega Power Plant) at Mundra, by the

3
Tata group is one such Central initiative. In such cases, the state government needs to inform the
Centre regarding its share of offtake from the designated initiative.

A state might approach the Centre for such initiatives in case of its inability to supply the
required quantum of power. This inability could arise due to;

1) Lack of Financial resources & Affordability

2) Lack of resources like fuel, intellectual property, contractual tie-ups; in a profitable
fashion

The state could also take up this alternative as a resort to increasing the private investor
participation in the state.

Ideally, the state should plan the increase in the capacities of the state as per the forecasts, either
by Greenfield or Brownfield projects. As a pitfall, there is no provision that states the
enforcement of these additions. Ultimately, the wish of increase lies on the will of the state
government. Let the published forecasted demand of a state be 100 MW for a certain year.
Suppose that state’s government distribution company decides to purchase power from a private
generator on a long term basis. In case the power amounts to more that the forecasted demand
of 100 MW, the distributor has to take permission from CEA. However, there is no rule which
makes it obligatory for the distributor to arrange for power in response to the increased demand
of 100 MW. The distributor may or may not make arrangements for the same, as per its
motivation.

In absence of state initiatives, the Center can either utilize its assets in the state or induce
investments at its own interest. However, there might be a possibility that state does not respond
to such initiatives because of not cited reasons. There is no rule that enforces a state to do so.

2
8.2 Observations
As per the above elaborate layout of the scenario, the following observations can be made.

1) The regulations are more focused on financial & technical parameters and corporate
governance of the entities
2) It shows a lesser focus on future developments. This is proved by the increasing share of
government expansions of coal-fired plants. Gas shows an increasing usage but the
change is too gradual and slow.
3) The regulations aim more at streamlining the industry. They are structure-orientation
specific. They attempt to define procedures, ensuring compliance. This could be due to
the fact that the industry is at its nascent stage, post the implementation of the new
reforms in 2003. This was a big leap in breaking away from the government
monopolized market. Earlier, since everything was under one umbrella; the move is
essential for market stability. With the entry of private participation, market playing rules
need to be set.

2
 4) The regulatory framework developed in not in a totality of the business scenario. This
could be due to the naivety of the market, hence increasing the vulnerability of the
market,
5) One important observation is the freedom and incentives granted to captive plants and
renewable sourced plants. The policies have also been relaxed for co-generation.
However, these are open-ended incentives, whose benefit-bearing capacities depend
more on the free will of the concerned utilities. There is no regulatory obligation
whatsoever.

Based on the above observations, the market regulatory structure is apt for the evolving market.
However, the aspect of sole specification of rules and not compliance leaves a big dent in the
supply-demand gap.

The initiatives of UMPPs, Captive plants and Merchant power plants are being able to bridge the
gap to a certain extent. However, increased enforcement by the government could speed up the
process.

8.3 Role of Regulators in meeting Demand with Supply

As far as the state of Gujarat is concerned, the state does not face a permanent shortage of
power. There is a presence of a shortage of peak demand. We have discussed the various
regulatory policies that are in place in order to curb the demand in the state. It can be concluded
that the government and the regulators do play a role in the demand management in the state.

It is understood that the gap can be controlled either by handling the supply or improving the
efficiency of usage. As far as efficiency goes, the government has adequate initiatives in place to
control the efficiency factor. However, this policy comes with a large lead time till it becomes
effective.

As discussed above, the regulators carry out the following duties which indirectly affect the
demand and supply gap.
1
 1) Regulation of Tariffs
2) Demand of Annual performance reports from utilities
3) Increasing share of renewable power
4) Implementation of load control measures

Let us see the tariff in detail.

The MYT is an efficiency based tariff system. Every utility has a trajectory of operational target
that has been approved by the government through the MYT. If a company adheres to the MYT-
approved trajectory, they get to pass on the costs to the consumers; else they absorb the costs,
which cut into their profits.
The MYT for a utility is decided on the basis of historical performance data, operating
conditions. The benchmark is set which gives an incentive to the utilities to increase their
efficiency. Increased efficiency leads to an increase in the amount of power forwarded by the
utility, which indirectly helps in bridging the gap.

GERC has the authority to ask the utilities for their annual performance report. The report
includes details like their losses, operational or T&D, financial performance. Based on this
information, it has the power to direct them towards certain measures.

Let us take the example of a distribution licensee. In accordance with the demand in a particular
area, the government has the power to order a distribution licensee to increase the power it
supplies or distributes in order to fulfill its annual revenue requirement. As per the current
scenario, post-reform, the distribution licensee does not have to set up capacity building
infrastructure. Hence, it declares for the acceptance of bids through a competitive bidding
process. The number of bids received by the licensee is beyond the scope of control of the
regulator. This gives an indirect incentive for generators to increase their capacities.

As far direct incentives for increasing generation are concerned, the government have open-
ended policies in place. They aim to make the generation tariff investor friendly. As per the
current ROE of 14%, CERC has decided to increase the ROE to 15.5%. It also attempts to
provide a single window clearance for the generators to reduce hassles. This is the only extent to
which the regulator can ensure that the licensee gets enough bids. Lesser bids are often received
1
in the absence of regulatory incentives, as in case of a lowest Rs.7/unit bid by Torrent Power
Limited for the area of Sabarkantha, Gujarat.
However, in case of increasing the ROE, with the tariff is fixed, it suggests a financial clinch.
The retail tariff is fixed by GERC, and is revised every 3 years. If the ROE is increase, it is but
logical that the retail tariff is increased accordingly. But this option cannot be brought about
subsequently and has to be designed as per the customer profiling.

The GERC also attempts to shift focus to renewable sources of energy. Unconventional sources
of energy have a highly untapped potential which could be utilized as an additional source for
generating power. As a move towards renewable sources, the government licensees have a
liability of procuring 0.25% of their distribution requirement from solar plants. This liability is
slated to increase to increase to 0.5% and finally 1% subsequently.

The demand side management is done through load control measures. The state of Gujarat has
load Control measures across industrial belts. The state is divided into 7 zones or belts. Across
these zones, the different control measures that are executed are as follows :
• Peak hours staggering where in the different belts observe alternate recess hours during
the day in order to reduce the load. This distributes the demand over a length of day,
thereby reducing the pressure during peak hours.
• The non-continuous industries are supposed to observe a holiday (restriction of drawal by
50 %%) as per the day allotted to their belt. In order to operate on that day, the industries
have started making use of diesel generating stations in order to fulfill their requirement.
The government could make use of these standby capacities in order to meet the peak
demand shortage. This comes across as a viable option as the capacity of these stations
can be utilized on days other that the load shedding holidays, as the investment or these
capacities has already been done by the industries. Operating these stations on other days
and feeding that power into the grid is a feasible solution. Currently GUVNL pays these
industries the variable cost plus Re.1 in exchange for their standby capacity power.

Thus, taking into account all the above factors, the regulators, though do not have a direct
impact on the investment, but can create opportunities for curbing the gap indirectly.
2
7 Findings

The findings of the report above can be pictorially represented as:

Reasons for Gap

2
 Effects due to Gap

Solutions Offered

The state still shows additions of conventional fuel, despite the policies for the usage of
renewable sources being in place. This indicates a lag from the government side in the
implementation of these reforms. If accelerated it could aide in the extra influx of power in the
state. Few other issues that probably crop up are lesser investments in the generation side.

1
However, they are not that low, when seen in relative terms with other states. Hence,
theoretically it might be possible to state about an increase in the generation capacities but
practically, it has to be efficiently monitored, looking at the current scenario where the
government is seen to be open to private participation. Increasing the use of exclusive resources
like renewable potential, LNG terminals in a more efficient way is one way of improving the
supply side. However, these steps involve heavy investments, which could be a hurdle in the
way of these solutions being implanted. Tapping of excess industrial capacities from DG sets is a
novel way to harness the latent electricity available during the non-load shedding periods and it
also covers their heavy capital expenditures, as far as the industrial consumers are concerned.

2
8 Conclusion
As compared to other regions in the country, Gujarat is in a better position in terms of meeting
the demand with power supply. The state has near sufficient generation capacities, primarily
aimed at the efficient gas grid, quantitative investments due to business convocations like the
Vibrant Gujarat. The state at present has 3821 MW of capacity, which is expected to increase to
5240 MW over the next five years.

The primary reason is the outstripping of demand. The peak demand, mainly, is being tackled by
various measures like load control, utilization of standby capacities and incentivizing generation.
The various regulatory policies in place aim at increasing the efficiency of utilities, increasing
their accountability regarding their operations. All these factors indirectly affect the gap by
fluctuating the supply and demand gap.

As a supplement to the control of the supply, the government has also taken various demand
management measures like promoting the efficient use of power, distributing the industrial load
over a time frame. All these efforts tend to decrease the load during the peak hours and hence,
make the power management more effective.

1
Bibliography
Authority, C. E. (2008). Annual Report. Ministry of Power, Government of India.

Authority, G. E. (2009). Information Brochure . Ahmedabad.

Commission, G. E. (2009). Annual Performance Review for Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation
Limited : Case No. 975/2009. Ahmedabad.

Deo, D. P. (2010). Policy and Regulatory Framework of Indian Power Sector. Central Electricity
Regulatory Commission.

Dubash, N. K. (2005). The New Regulatory Politics of Electricity in India: Independent, Embedded or
Transcendent. The Politics of Necessity, Oxford .

Energy Calculator. (2010). Retrieved May 1, 2010, from Jamshedpur Utilities & Services Company
Limited: http://www.juscoltd.com/energy-calculator.asp

Hansen, C. J. (2007). Bottom-up Electricity Reform Using Industrial Captive Generation: A Case Study
of Gujarat, India. Oxford Institue for Energy Studies.

KSK Energy arm lowest bidder to provide 1010 MW to GUVNL. (2010, March 13). Retrieved April 23,
2010, from Business Standard: www.business-standard.com/india/news/ksk-energy-arm-lowest-bidder-
to-supply-1010-mw-power-to-guvnl/13/44/388411

Limited, A. I. (2007). Concept Paper on Multi Year Tariff Process. Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory
Commission.

Limited, M. -E. (2009). Multi Year Tariff Principles. Haryana Electricity Regulatory Commission.

P.R. Shukla, D. B. (2004). Captive Power Plants: Case Study of Gujarat, India.

Pandey, V. (November 2007). Electricity Grid Management in India - An Overview. 'Electrical India' -
Vol 47 No 11.

Power, M. o. (2007). Report of Working Group on Power for Eleventh Plan. Government of India.

Shukla, P. R., & Biswas, D. (2005). Impact of Power Sector Reforms on Technology, Efficiency and
Emissions : Case Study Gujarat. Ahmedabad.

Soonee, S., Narsimhan, S., & Pandey, V. (2006). Significance of Unscheduled Interchange Mechanism in
the Indian Elecricity Supply Industry. Department of Electrical Engineering, ITBHU.

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Tongia, R. (2003). Power Sector Reform - India – The Long Road Ahead. Carnegie Mellon University,
(p. 46).

Appendix 1

2
2
Appendix 2

1
Appendix 3

Peak
Year Demand Demand Met Deficit (MW) Deficit %
Gujar Gujar Gujar Indi Gujara Indi
at India at India at a t a
Mar- 1094 9678 1270
09 9003 92 8960 5 43 7 0.5 11.6
Apr- 1109 9735 1360
09 8975 58 8481 5 494 3 5.5 12.3
May- 1079 9503 1288
09 8465 20 8243 3 222 7 2.6 11.9
Jun- 1116 9687 1479
09 8633 62 8274 1 359 1 4.2 13.2
Jul- 1095 9628 1327
09 8051 53 7781 2 270 1 3.4 12.1
Aug- 1162 9927 1700
09 9748 81 9155 7 593 4 6.1 14.6
Sep- 1151 1016 1350
09 10290 16 9389 09 901 7 8.8 11.7
Oct- 1154 1015 1386
09 10406 32 9515 64 891 8 8.6 12.0
Nov- 1097 9578 1393
09 9624 21 8743 3 881 8 9.2 12.7
Dec- 1123 9773 1465
09 9528 94 8520 8 1008 6 10.6 13.0
Jan- 1125 9843 1406
10 9223 05 8498 8 725 7 7.9 12.5
Feb- 1143 9982 1454
10 9275 62 8320 2 955 0 10.3 12.7

1
Mar- 1184 1027 1574
10 10040 72 9047 25 993 7 9.9 13.3

Appendix 4

Requiremen
Year t Availability Deficit (MW) Deficit %
Gujara Gujara Indi Indi
t India t India Gujarat a Gujarat a
Mar- 6959 6199 759
09 5651 5 5638 7 13 8 0.2 10.9
Apr- 6799 6037 761
09 5785 2 5600 7 185 5 3.2 11.2
May- 6847 6247 599
09 5714 1 5677 7 37 4 0.6 8.8

1
Jun- 6950 6212 738
09 5484 8 5410 6 74 2 1.3 10.6
Jul- 6836 6268 567
09 4654 1 4622 5 32 6 0.7 8.3
Aug- 7327 6528 798
09 5835 3 5711 7 124 6 2.1 10.9
Sep- 6899 6233 665
09 6134 4 6060 9 74 5 1.2 9.6
Oct- 6971 6318 653
09 5977 4 5917 0 60 4 1.0 9.4
Nov- 6299 5735 564
09 6199 4 5694 0 505 4 8.1 9.0
Dec- 6865 6148 716
09 6262 0 5715 7 547 3 8.7 10.4
Jan- 7030 6277 753
10 6036 6 5495 6 541 0 9.0 10.7
Feb- 6559 5890 668
10 5506 4 5064 6 442 8 8.0 10.2
Mar- 7649 6751 898
10 6826 3 6298 3 528 0 7.7 11.7