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UEMACHI-FAULT
Yoshinori IWASAKI
Geo-Research Institute, Osaka, Japan
E-mail yoshi-iw@geor.or.jp
ABSTRACT: There is an active hidden fault under urban area of Osaka, which has been anticipated to cause severe
damage due to its strong ground motions. Recent study by Committee for Technical Investigation on Countermeasures for
the Tonankai and Nankai Earthquakes, Central Disaster Management Council, Japanese Government made a report on
expected fault displacement of ground of the Osaka by the Uemachi fault. The report was based upon mathematical
simulation of ground surface by assumed fault displacements and shows flexure type deformation with width of about
10km. This paper discusses the comparison of the fault characteristics between the estimated fault displacements by the
Central Disaster Management Council and the real feature of the fault that had been obtained through seismic refraction
survey. The estimated results are found different from the reality and are concluded to give wrong conclusion. The wrong
results were caused by wrong assumption of the fault model. Earthquake computation becomes highly sophisticated and
relied themselves too much. They need to be familiar with the reality in the real field to make a bridge between computation
and real world.
1. INTRODUCTION
The Kobe earthquake of 1955 gave a great shock to Osaka
city where a hidden active fault became to be the most
dangerous earthquake, which had been intentionally
disregarded before Kobe Earthquake. The East Japan
Earthquake of 2011 gave another shock for Osaka city.
Fig.1a Assumed Fault Segments Fig.1b Crustal Movement of Uemachi Fault (Central Disaster Management
Council, 2010)
The
(Yamamoto,
4.
THE COMPARISON OF SETTLEMENTS
BETWEEN COMPUTED SETTLEMENTS AND
OBSERVED IN SEISMIC SERVEY
The result of computation of settlements by the Central
Disaster Management Council, the Government of Japan,
is compared with the characteristic curve of the flexure of
Uemachi Fault in Fig.8. Computation shows very gentle
increase of the settlement to the west direction at about 4km.
The observed trend in the seismic profile shows the same
change within a very short distance and stays constant
beyond the distance of 0.3km from the fault. In terms of
disaster prevention point of view, the settlement of the
ground is estimated smaller than those estimated by seismic
reflection profile. When the observed characteristics of the
flexure displacement above the fault is true, the estimation
by the Government gives wrong results, estimation is too
safe, the reality is much dangerous.
CONCLUSIONS