Moore’s Law

“the magic of our time”

19th Century Camera – Golden Age
Cameras in early 20 Century
th
Cameras over the years
Current SLRs and Digital Cameras
Kids Cameras
Key Chain Cameras
 First mobile phone invented by
Martin Cooper @ Motorola in 1973
Cellphones in 90’s
LG phones today
2009 Top Cell Phones
World’s smallest cell phone?
1962 - IBM 2MB storage disks,
weighed 5 pounds each
1967 IBM Storage System
128 GB – 1M$s
1980 IBM 3380 storage system
20GB - 150,000$s each
Hard Drives over years
SimpleTech external hard disks
2009 Kingston DataTraveler
ThumbDrives
What’s going on?
First Transistor invented @ Bell
Labs in 1947
Replica of First Transistor at CHM
Transistors over the years
2008 Intel Core i7 – 800M
transistors, built on 45nm
technology
Gordon Earl Moore
1965 –Moore’s Original Diagram
Cost per Transistor
Intel Processor Timeline
# transistors produced in 2005 > #
of grains of rice produced that year
Storage Capacities at Retail Stores
Pixels per array
Bandwidth Costs
Doubling Times for Various
Technologies in Months
 What drives all this?
• In 2005 Moore said, "Moore's law is really
about economics."
• In the same session Carver Mead made it
clearer yet: Moore's Law, he says, "is
really about people's belief system, it's not
a law of physics, it's about human belief,
and when people believe in something,
they'll put energy behind it to make it
come to pass.
 For how much long?
• Moore in 2005 predicted at least a decade
• In 2009, Intel CEO Craig Barrett said "We
can scale it down another 10 to 15 years.
Nothing touches the economics of it."
• Estimates range from another 5 yrs to
forever
• Pushing against limits of Physics and
Chemistry at atomic level
# of computations per second per
$1000 – Ray Kurzweil
Technology Curves – Golden Age
is ahead of us
 1969 Kitchen Computer
• Kitchen Computer 1969, Neiman Marcus, United States
• The Kitchen Computer was featured in the 1969 Neiman Marcus
catalog as a $10,600 tool for housewives to store and retrieve
recipes. Unfortunately, the user interface was only binary lights and
switches. There is no evidence that any Kitchen Computer was ever
sold. Inside was a standard Honeywell 316 minicomputer, billed as
the first 16-bit machine at that price from a major computer
manufacturer.
• Memory Type : Core
• Speed : 0.6 MHz
• Memory Size:16K
• Cost : $10,600
• Memory Width : (16-bit)