TRI-COUNTY

Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory

Number 1
Rocky Infanger
Everett M. “Sonny” Stiger
July 20, 2010
Subject:

The Ignition Component of the NFDRS and the Probability of Ignition

appears to be a key element in forecasting fire behavior in beetle killed
ponderosa pine.

Discussion:

Beetle killed ponderosa pine needles and the 10 hour size ends of branches with
needles attached have been building up on the forest floor and exhibiting an
unusual amount of needle drape on understory vegetation (see photo 1&2). The
North Fork fire of July 12, 2010 on the North Fork of Stickney creek North of
Helena, MT appeared to grow quickly from a 10 to 15 acre running crown fire to
70 acres of spot fires (see photo 3&4). The Ignition Component (IC) for that day
from the Helena Fire Weather station was 82 in the C model and 79 in the G
model with a 3% fine fuel moisture. The Probability of Ignition (POI) was
estimated at 74 to 86. It is recommended that POI be used during operations
(Rothermel 1983).

The following is taken from T. Leuschen paper Environmental Conditions as

indicators of Potential for Rapid Rate of Spread in Wildland Fires. “The
Probability of Ignition of 80 – 100% is what enabled the entrapment fire
(Thirtymile fire) to ignite and spread rapidly. Hundreds of embers deposited by
the wind set up the opportunity for hundreds of spot fires to ignite at the same
time and coalesce, creating, in affect, a mass ignition. The key to the entire
process is fine fuel moisture and Probability of Ignition. A high Probability of
Ignition is necessary to enable spot fires to start and spread rapidly.
Unfortunately, although fireline supervisors are trained in determining fine fuel
moisture and Probability of Ignition, they are not always determined by
firefighters on the fireline and less frequently shared with all fireline personnel
when the weather is recorded. A Probability of Ignition of 70% appears to be
significant and should be cause for concern.”

Concerns to Firefighters:

Anticipate short range, profuse spotting from intense surface fires, torching trees,
and areas of active crowning when the Red/Dead Ponderosa pine burns with the
Ignition Component and/or the POI at 70% or greater.
North Fork Stickney Creek Fire (July 12, 2010): Spot Fires

Photos 3 & 4
Photos 1 & 2