MONTH WISE CHEQUS CLEARENCE AT

CENTRES MANAGED BY R.B.I

Submitted To-: Prof. Ritu Anand

Submitted By-:
U.Prabir jaiswal (2k91M61)
 REPETITIVE AND PREDICTABLE
MOVEMENT AROUND THE TREND
LINE IN ONE YEAR OR LESS.

 USES:
ESTABLISH PATTERN OF CHANGES

PROJECT PAST PATTERN INTO THE FUTURE

CAN ELIMINATE THE EFFECT FROM TIME SERIES

Month-wise Cheque Clearances at Centres Managed by Reserve Bank of India

(April 1990 to March 2009)

(Rs. in Crore)

Centres/ Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Year

Mumbai                                                                                    

1990-91 15211 16781 14987 15874 15102 15132 - 17804 17776 18772 16319 26078

1991-92 20297 19557 16633 19728 19227 17467 21755 18003 22150 22909 21773 26275

1992-93 22861 30300 23170 20539 19968 21979 22603 22182 21524 19592 22320 26777

1993-94 25636 23817 23760 24912 197219 172147 198701 189008 122932 162943 123399 210994
 construct the 4 quarter centered
moving average and plot it on the graph
along with the original data.

calculate the seasonal indices for each

quarter.

 Forecast the in 2009 (3rd quarter) in

India.
QUARTER UNADJUSTED CONSTANT ADJUSTED

1ST 101.40 1.0061 102.01

2ND 93.69 1.0061 94.26

3RD 96.84 1.0061 97.43

4TH 105.64 1.0061 106.28

Trend line is ----
a = 133677.13 b = 12113.15
Y = 133677.13 +12113.15x

For 2009 3rd quarter x = 79

x = 79 – 8.5 / 0.5 = 141
Y = a +bx
= 133677.13 +12113.15*
= 1841631.28
 Interpretation
Graph shows the upward trend
ofmonth wise cheques CLEARENCE
managed by R.B.I in India.

There will be a fairly good amount

of cheques cleared in the 3rd
quarter of the year 2009 as the
graph is upward trend. The figure
comes to be 184163.
Thank you