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Statistical Quality Control

Chapter 8
Elements of Probability
Probability: Definition

• Probability, or chance of occurrence, is


defined as the ratio between the nr. of
occurrences and the nr. of total possibilities:

n u m b er o f o ccu rren ces


P A  
to ta l n u m b e r o f p o s s ib ilitie s
Theorem 1

• Probability is expressed as a number with


values between zero (0) and one (1), or in
percentages ranging from 0% (impossibility)
to 100% (certainty)

0  P A  1
0%  P A  100%
Theorem 2

• The sum of probabilities of events in a


situation is equal to one (1), or 100%:

 P i  P  A   P  B  . . . P  N  1
Theorem 3

• If the probability that an event will occur is


P(A), then the probability that event “A” will
not occur is:

P A  1  P A 
Theorem 4

• For mutually exclusive events, the


probability that either event “A” or event “B”
will occur is the sum of their respective
probabilities:

P A o r B   P A   P B 
Theorem 5

• When events “A” and “B” are not mutually


exclusive events, the probability that either
event “A” or event “B”, or both will occur
is:

P  A a n d B   P  A   P  B   P b o t h 
Theorem 6

• If “A” and “B” are dependent events, the


probability that both “A” and “B” will occur
is:

P A and B 
P A and B   P A 
P A 
Theorem 7

• If “A” and “B” are independent events, then


the probability that both “A” and “B” will
occur is:

P A and B   P A  P B 
Permutations

• A permutation is number of arrangements


that “N” objects can have, when “R” of them
are used:

N !
PR N

 N  R !
Combinations

• Similar to permutations, combinations DO


NOT account for the order of occurrence,
the number of possibilities is calculated as:

N !
C N

R !  N  R  !
R

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