Friday, January 07, 2011 – my comments are in italics

Change in Private Nonfarm Payrolls: Survey 178k Actual 113 Prior 50 Revised 79

Private Payrolls - Estimates vs Actual

Avg Estimate from UBS, JPM & Consensus Actual Revision
250

200

179
150

100 113

50

0
September October November December

Obviously this is a miss, but not a catastrophe. The last five months have seen subsequent revisions
higher from 29 to 76k.

Unemployment Rate: Survey: 9.7% Actual 9.4% Prior 9.8

The fall in unemployment was largely due to a 260,000 decrease in the workforce. But I find it
interesting that this headline came across from the Washington Post: Breaking News: Unemployment
rate falls sharply in December. Perhaps this could boost confidence even though it really shouldn’t.

On the question of which European sovereign is next? Belgium might be a good guess…CDS
spreads continue making new highs, but still well below other peripherals.