APPLICATION

OF

PROBABILITY

IN
FIFA 2010
 FIFA Statistics
TOTAL NUMBER OF PARTICIPATING COUNTRIES32

TOTAL NUMBER OF MATCHES 64

PATTERN OF THE MATCHES:

32 teams were divided into 8 groups of 4 teams each and there
were round robbin matches between teams of each group(each team
playing against the other exactly once). The 16 qualified teams
went into the Stage 2 of knock out round. 8 qualified teams go
for quaterfinal, the winning teams play semi final and finals.

TOTAL NO OF GOALS (IN 90 MINUTES) 143

 POISSON DISTRIBUTION
• Definition: The Poisson Distribution
describes the number of times
some event occurs during a
specified interval. It is used for
discrete random variables for a
continuous interval.


P(x)=µx e-µ /(x!)




POISSON DISTRIBUTION IN
FIFA
µ = 143/64 = 2.23 Goals/match
Total No. of goals Poisson probability Expected No. of Actual No. of games
per game (goals) mean 143/64 games

0 0.107059021 6.851777333 8

1 0.23921 15.30943998 16

2 0.267242422 17.10351498 14

3 0.199039929 12.73855543 13

4 0.11118246 7.115677445 7

5 or more 0.076266169 4.88103484 6

POISSON DISTRIBUTION IN
FIFA
 EXPONENTIAL
DISTRIBUTION
• Definition: Exponential Distribution is
a class of  continuous probability
distributions which describes the
interval between events in
a Poisson process.
•
P(x≥x ) = e -λx0
0
EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION IN
goals
FIFA 2010
Time Interval between Actual value Expected value

0 To 10 27 31.44
10 TO 20 25 24.53
20 TO 30 23 19.14
30 TO 40 19 14.93
40 TO 50 10 11.65
50 TO 60 8 9.08
60 TO 70 8 7.09
70 TO 80 3 5.53
80 TO 90 3 4.31
90 TO 100 4 3.36
100 TO 110 4 2.62
110 TO 120 3 2.05
120 TO 130 1 1.6
130 TO 140 0 1.25
140 TO 150 2 0.97
150 TO 160 1 0.76
160 TO 170 0 0.59
170 TO 180 0 0.46
180 TO 190 1 0.36
EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION IN
FIFA 2010
 CONCLUSION
So it is interesting to see that the
thenumber of goals per match can be
predicted by using poisson distribution.
Also, the time interval between the
successive goals can be predicted using
Exponential Distribution. Hence, this could
be extended to the next world cup as well.
 Thank You!

• Arushi Agrawal
• Piyush Samaria
• Punit Sarda
• Rishab Bucha